Thursday's NFL Notes
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Road teams went 11-5 in the first week of the preseason and underdogs went 10-6 both straight up and against the spread. Ten of the 16 games were decided by eight or more points.
The ‘over’ went 11-5 and VegasInsider.com expert Tony Stoffo isn’t surprised by the early total results.
He explained, "Just like I wrote in my Preseason Report, the lack of hitting in camp has the defenses way behind the offenses right now. For example, just take a look at the Ravens, a traditional low-scoring team in previous years and their first game turns into a 44-16 final against Tampa Bay last Thursday. Under these same conditions a year ago the Ravens watched a combined 48, 39, 65, and 48 points put up on the scoreboard in their four preseason games."
Ooddsmakers had one total listed above 40 points in Week 1, and it went ‘over’ (Eagles-Patriots) the total.
In Week 2, there are 12 games with an opening number of at least 40 and the other four numbers aren’t lower than 38 points. To put things in perspective and show you how the preseason is changing in terms of totals, there were only two totals listed above 40 in Week 2 during the 2011 and 2012 preseason campaigns.
Stoffo believes the ‘over’ run will continue in Week 2 but could simmer down in the second-half of the preseason.
He said, "Things should be the same again this week as the coaches need to see their younger players, which will turn into a ton of blown defensive coverage and some big scoring plays. Then, things should return to the norm in next week’s dress-rehearsal games where the starters play into the second half. I’m not sure we’ll see another 11-5 lean to the ‘over’ but I do expect to see plenty of points again this weekend."
Detroit at Cleveland
Week 1 Notes
Detroit – The Lions defeated the Jets 26-17 as four-point favorites
Cleveland – The Browns defeated the Rams 27-19 as 3 ½-point favorites
Expected QB Rotation
Detroit - Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, Kellen Moore
Cleveland - Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell, Brian Hoyer
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
Detroit (3-0)
Cleveland (1-2)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Rob Chudzinkski (1-0)
Last week’s game versus St. Louis was his Chudzinkski’s first as a head coach.
Jim Schwartz (13-4)
The Lions have gone 5-3 on the road in the preseason under Schwartz
Handicapping Notes
The Lions have seen the 'over' go 5-1-1 in their last six preseason games. Philadelphia is on a 4-1 'over' run in preseason games.
Atlanta at Baltimore
Week 1 Notes
Atlanta – The Falcons lost to the Bengals 34-10 as two-point home favorites
Baltimore – The Ravens defeated the Buccaneers 44-16 as three-point road underdogs
Expected QB Rotation
Atlanta - Matt Ryan, Dominique Davis, Sean Renfree (Rookie - Duke), Seth Doege (Rookie - Texas Tech)
Baltimore - Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Caleb Hanie
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
Atlanta (0-3)
Baltimore (2-1)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Mike Smith (7-14)
Smith went 2-2 in each of his first three seasons but he’s gone 1-7 the last two years and 0-1 so far this season.
John Harbaugh (14-7)
The Ravens have gone 5-1 in their last six preseason games at home.
Handicapping Notes
The Ravens have seen the 'over' go 4-1 in their last five preseason games
Carolina at Philadelphia
Week 1 Notes
Carolina – The Panthers defeated the Bears 24-17 as three-point home favorites
Philadelphia – The Eagles lost to the Patriots 31-22 as three-point home favorites
Expected QB Rotation
Carolina - Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Jimmy Clausen, Colby Cameron (Rookie - Louisiana Tech)
Philadelphia - Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley (Rookie - USC)
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
Carolina (1-2)
Philadelphia (1-2)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Ron Rivera (4-5)
The Panthers have averaged 14 PPG in four preseason road games under Rivera, which has produced a 2-2 record. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1.
Chip Kelly (0-1)
Last week’s game versus New England was Kelly’s first as a head coach.
Handicapping Notes
Carolina is 1-10 straight up and 3-8 against the spread in its last 11 preseason road games.
San Diego at Chicago
Week 1 Notes
San Diego – The Chargers lost to the Seahawks 31-10 as three-point home underdogs
Chicago – The Bears lost to the Panthers 24-17 as three-point road underdogs
Expected QB Rotation
San Diego - Philip Rivers, Charlie Whitehurst, Brad Sorensen (Rookie - Southern Utah), Mike Hermann (Rookie- RPI)
Chicago - Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Matt Blanchard
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
San Diego (2-1)
Chicago (1-2)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Mike McCoy (0-1)
Mark Trestman (0-1)
Both coaches made their NFL preseason debuts in Week 1.
Handicapping Notes
The Chargers are 4-0 both SU and ATS in their last four preseason road games.
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Road teams went 11-5 in the first week of the preseason and underdogs went 10-6 both straight up and against the spread. Ten of the 16 games were decided by eight or more points.
The ‘over’ went 11-5 and VegasInsider.com expert Tony Stoffo isn’t surprised by the early total results.
He explained, "Just like I wrote in my Preseason Report, the lack of hitting in camp has the defenses way behind the offenses right now. For example, just take a look at the Ravens, a traditional low-scoring team in previous years and their first game turns into a 44-16 final against Tampa Bay last Thursday. Under these same conditions a year ago the Ravens watched a combined 48, 39, 65, and 48 points put up on the scoreboard in their four preseason games."
Ooddsmakers had one total listed above 40 points in Week 1, and it went ‘over’ (Eagles-Patriots) the total.
In Week 2, there are 12 games with an opening number of at least 40 and the other four numbers aren’t lower than 38 points. To put things in perspective and show you how the preseason is changing in terms of totals, there were only two totals listed above 40 in Week 2 during the 2011 and 2012 preseason campaigns.
Stoffo believes the ‘over’ run will continue in Week 2 but could simmer down in the second-half of the preseason.
He said, "Things should be the same again this week as the coaches need to see their younger players, which will turn into a ton of blown defensive coverage and some big scoring plays. Then, things should return to the norm in next week’s dress-rehearsal games where the starters play into the second half. I’m not sure we’ll see another 11-5 lean to the ‘over’ but I do expect to see plenty of points again this weekend."
Detroit at Cleveland
Week 1 Notes
Detroit – The Lions defeated the Jets 26-17 as four-point favorites
Cleveland – The Browns defeated the Rams 27-19 as 3 ½-point favorites
Expected QB Rotation
Detroit - Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, Kellen Moore
Cleveland - Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell, Brian Hoyer
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
Detroit (3-0)
Cleveland (1-2)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Rob Chudzinkski (1-0)
Last week’s game versus St. Louis was his Chudzinkski’s first as a head coach.
Jim Schwartz (13-4)
The Lions have gone 5-3 on the road in the preseason under Schwartz
Handicapping Notes
The Lions have seen the 'over' go 5-1-1 in their last six preseason games. Philadelphia is on a 4-1 'over' run in preseason games.
Atlanta at Baltimore
Week 1 Notes
Atlanta – The Falcons lost to the Bengals 34-10 as two-point home favorites
Baltimore – The Ravens defeated the Buccaneers 44-16 as three-point road underdogs
Expected QB Rotation
Atlanta - Matt Ryan, Dominique Davis, Sean Renfree (Rookie - Duke), Seth Doege (Rookie - Texas Tech)
Baltimore - Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Caleb Hanie
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
Atlanta (0-3)
Baltimore (2-1)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Mike Smith (7-14)
Smith went 2-2 in each of his first three seasons but he’s gone 1-7 the last two years and 0-1 so far this season.
John Harbaugh (14-7)
The Ravens have gone 5-1 in their last six preseason games at home.
Handicapping Notes
The Ravens have seen the 'over' go 4-1 in their last five preseason games
Carolina at Philadelphia
Week 1 Notes
Carolina – The Panthers defeated the Bears 24-17 as three-point home favorites
Philadelphia – The Eagles lost to the Patriots 31-22 as three-point home favorites
Expected QB Rotation
Carolina - Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Jimmy Clausen, Colby Cameron (Rookie - Louisiana Tech)
Philadelphia - Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley (Rookie - USC)
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
Carolina (1-2)
Philadelphia (1-2)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Ron Rivera (4-5)
The Panthers have averaged 14 PPG in four preseason road games under Rivera, which has produced a 2-2 record. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1.
Chip Kelly (0-1)
Last week’s game versus New England was Kelly’s first as a head coach.
Handicapping Notes
Carolina is 1-10 straight up and 3-8 against the spread in its last 11 preseason road games.
San Diego at Chicago
Week 1 Notes
San Diego – The Chargers lost to the Seahawks 31-10 as three-point home underdogs
Chicago – The Bears lost to the Panthers 24-17 as three-point road underdogs
Expected QB Rotation
San Diego - Philip Rivers, Charlie Whitehurst, Brad Sorensen (Rookie - Southern Utah), Mike Hermann (Rookie- RPI)
Chicago - Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Matt Blanchard
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
San Diego (2-1)
Chicago (1-2)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Mike McCoy (0-1)
Mark Trestman (0-1)
Both coaches made their NFL preseason debuts in Week 1.
Handicapping Notes
The Chargers are 4-0 both SU and ATS in their last four preseason road games.
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