NFL Pre-season Betting Info

[TheGame]

Best Over/Under Bets of NFL Preseason Week 1
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

If you’re tackling totals this NFL preseason this week, take a look at which teams lean towards the over or the under during Week 1 of the exhibition schedule.

Records as of 1995.

Best NFL preseason Week 1 over bets


New York Jets (7-10 SU, 12-5 O/U in Week 1)

The Jets offense was a joke last preseason, leading to a 1-3 over/under mark. Now that the cat’s out of the bag and the scoring struggles are frontpage fodder, New York’s totals could get a serious haircut this summer. Books have set the number at 36 points for the Jets Week 1 preseason date in Detroit.

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8 SU, 11-5-1 O/U in Week 1)

The Jaguars are another team known for their anemic offense. Jacksonville is bouncing between Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne at QB and will likely be without RB Maurice Jones-Drew for the preseason opener versus Miami Friday. Oddsmakers have the total at 35.5 for that matchup.

Best NFL preseason Week 1 under bets


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6 SU, 3-14 ATS)

Tampa Bay is working in a new defense, hoping to stop the bleeding against the pass. With the emphasis on that and the franchise wanting to get a good look at rookie QB Mike Glennon, the unders could continue to come. The Bucs have a total of 35.5 for their Week 1 preseason tilt with the Ravens, who are 4-12 O/U in Week 1 of the preseason since 1995.

Washington Redskins (9-8 SU, 4-13 O/U in Week 1)

There will likely be no RG3 sight this preseason, with Washington playing it cool with Robert Griffin III’s wonky knee. Backup QB Kirk Cousins will handle the majority of the passing duties, especially in the Week 1 preseason opener with Tennessee. The total is set at 35.5 points.

[TheGame]

What Bettors Need to Know: Thursday's NFL Preseason Action
By Covers.com

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 35.5)

In the past, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh usually played his starters for most of the first quarter but with a rash of injuries during the summer, Baltimore may limit the action of its first stringers.

Tampa Bay is also trying to protect its key players from injury this offseason. The Bucs aren’t sold on Josh Freeman as the No. 1, so there could be plenty of snaps for him and rookie QB Mike Glennon.

St. Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns (-4, 35.5)

St. Louis is going to give RB Daryl Richardson the starting gig heading into the preseason opener. The Rams will work in their new offensive line additions Thursday, so Sam Bradford’s workload could depend on the protection.

Cleveland won’t have RB Trent Richardson in the lineup versus St. Louis and is still without Montario Hardesty, leaving rushing duties to third and fourth-stringers Dion Lewis and Brandon Jackson.

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 35.5)

While Robert Griffin III says he feels great, the Redskins won’t risk throwing their franchise QB out there Thursday. Washington will go with Kirk Cousins at QB and is expected to play its starters 10-15 plays.

Tennessee head coach Mike Munchak is focusing on his rebuilt offensive line this preseason, more specifically paving the way for RB Chris Johnson. The Titans first string will play between 18 and 25 plays.

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 37)

These two teams have shared practice time the past week, so there may be some familiarity with each other Thursday. Bengals star WR A.J. Green will sit out while nursing a sore knee and fellow WR Andrew Hawkins is out with an ankle injury.

Atlanta won’t have TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Julio Jones or LB Sean Weatherspoon in Week 1 of the preseason. Head coach Mike Smith may not keep QB Matt Ryan under center long with injuries to the offensive line this week.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 35)

Peyton Manning is expected to see limited action all preseason but he did tell reporters he was anxious to play the 49ers Thursday, hinting that he may actually take snaps Thursday. Manning didn’t play in Denver’s Week 1 preseason game last summer.

San Francisco will give its first stringers a taste of action before turning its attention to position needs. An injury to CB Chris Culliver has left a big hole in the secondary, so there could be plenty of tinkering with the pass defense. Colt McCoy will get some face time as Colin Kaepernick’s backup.

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers (+2, 35.5)

The Seahawks have become one of the best preseason bets, going 39-26-3 ATS since 1995 including a 4-0 ATS mark last summer. Seattle QB Russell Wilson, who will see limited snaps, told reporters the Seahawks are bringing a basic offense into Thursday game.

San Diego’s new head coach Mike McCoy is stressing speed this summer, so the Bolts could be full of juice Thursday night, even though they’re missing some downfield threats. The Chargers lost WR Danario Alexander for the season after he tore his ACL this week and WR Vincent Brown is still slowed with a hamstring strain.

[TheGame]

Friday Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The underdogs took home the money in four of six preseason games last night, improving to 5-2 ATS since Sunday's Hall of Fame game. The Ravens, Redskins, and Bengals all won outright in the road 'dog role, while the 'over' hit in five of the six games on Thursday.

Dolphins (-1½, 35½) at Jaguars

2012 Preseason Records: MIA (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), JAX (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Dolphins beat Jaguars, 27-26 in 2010

QB Rotations: MIA - Tannehill, Moore, Devlin
JAX - Gabbert, Henne, Kafka

Handicapper Analysis: ASA - Miami already has a game under their belt which should be an advantage here. The Fins lost in the Hall of Fame game last Sunday to Dallas, 24-20. However, Miami dominated the stats with seven more first downs and 421 total yards to just 266 for the Cowboys. The Fish averaged 5.5 yards per play while holding Dallas to only 4.6 yards per play. The score was obviously deceiving as the Cowboys first two TD’s came on a 9-yard drive after a Ryan Tannehill fumble and on a 75-yard interception return.

Jets at Lions (-3½, 36½)

2012 Preseason Records: NYJ (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), DET (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Jets beat Lions, 10-3 in 2005

QB Rotations: NYJ - Sanchez, G. Smith, Simms, McElroy
DET - Stafford, Hill, Moore, Lewis

Handicapper Analysis: The Gold Sheet - Detroit's Jim Schwartz has become one of the more predictable forces in preseason since taking over the Lions, going 12-4 straight up and 11-4 vs. the spread. New York has usually been a slow starter under Rex Ryan, going 0-4 in Week One of exhibition play, and this year's team has its third offensive coordinator in three years.

Patriots at Eagles (-4½, 41)

2012 Preseason Records: NE (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS), PHI (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Eagles beat Patriots, 27-17 in 2012

QB Rotations: NE: Brady, Mallett, Tebow
PHI - Vick, Foles, Barkley, Dixon

Handicapper Analysis: Antony Dinero - Talk of Tom Brady destroying the Eagles secondary has come out of Philly, where the Patriots have served as scrimmage partner since Tuesday. Considering both Michael Vick and Nick Foles are out to impress, not to mention the pace Chip Kelly and Bill Belichick are trying to instill, this game should be high-scoring.

Cardinals at Packers (-3, 34½)

2012 Preseason Records: ARZ (1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS), GB (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Packers beat Cardinals, 28-20 in 2011

QB Rotations: ARZ - Palmer, Stanton, Lindley
GB: Rodgers, Harrell, Coleman

Handicapper Analysis: Doc's Sports - Yes, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, but I do not expect to see much of him in this game, especially since their left tackle went down last Saturday and Green Bay just cannot afford any more injuries. The Packers have terrible back-ups that do not fit Mike McCarthy’s style of throwing the ball down the field. This team is so desperate for a quality back-up that they just signed Vince Young, a player that has not seen action since 2011.

Bears at Panthers (-2½, 34)

2012 Preseason Records: CHI (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), CAR (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Panthers beat Bears, 30-12 in 1996

QB Rotations: CHI - Cutler, J. McCown, Blanchard
CAR - Newton, Anderson, Clausen, Cameron

Handicapper Analysis: Marc Lawrence - New coaches in their first NFL preseason game are 5-14 SU and 2-17 ATS since 2000 if their team won three or more preseason games last year, including 0-8 SUATS if they open the preseason on the road. That's the case for new Bears head coach Marc Trestman and the Bears tonight.

Chiefs at Saints (-3, 36½)

2012 Preseason Records: KC (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS), NOR (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Saints beat Chiefs, 30-7 in 2007

QB Rotations: KC: A. Smith, Daniel, Bray, Stanzi
NOR: Brees, Wallace, L. McCown, Griffin

Handicapper Analysis: Tony Stoffo - The Chiefs have been the worst preforming team in the preseason year after year - in the past 6 preseasons the Chiefs are an amazing 4-21 against the spread. However, let's not forget that when Andy Reid was with the Eagles, he hated this opening preseason game and put no effort into winning this game - the records don't lie as Reid in his last 8 preseason openers went a money making 1-7 if you faded the Eagles.

Texans at Vikings (PK, 35)

2012 Preseason Records: HOU (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), MIN (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Texans beat Vikings, 28-24 in 2012

QB Rotations: HOU: Schaub, Yates, Keenum, McGee
MIN: Ponder, Cassell, Bethel-Thompson

Handicapper Analysis: Pat Hawkins - The Texans have come out firing in the past two season when playing early preseason games as they have gone 4-0 ATS in their two open games in the last two preseasons. On the other hand, the Vikings have not out too much stock in the practice games under Leslie Frazier as he has gone 0-2 in opening practice games.

Cowboys (-1½, 35) at Raiders

2012 Preseason Records: DAL (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS), OAK (1-3, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Cowboys beat Raiders, 3-0 in 2012

QB Rotations: DAL: Romo, Orton, Stephens
OAK: Flynn, Pryor, T. Wilson, McGloin

Handicapper Analysis: Kevin Rogers - Historically, favorites that won the Hall of Fame game are usually a good fade the next week, as the Cowboys are in that position tonight, especially as road 'chalk.' Dallas cashed as short away 'dogs last season at Oakland, 3-0, but with the roles reserved, the Raiders look to be the play.

[TheGame]

Notebook - Steelers vs. Giants
VegasInsider.com

Giants at Steelers

2012 Preseason Records

Pittsburgh (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS)
New York (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)

2012 Preseason Totals

Pittsburgh (Over 3-1)
New York (Under 3-1)

Last Meeting: The Steelers beat the Giants 24-20 on Nov. 4 as 3 ½-point road underdogs in the regular season last year.

Expected QB Rotations

Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, John Parker Wilson, Landry Jones (Rookie - Oklahoma)

New York: Eli Manning, David Carr, Ryan Nassib (Rookie - Syracuse), Curtis Painter

Handicapping Notes

Pittsburgh

VegasInsider.com expert Tony Stoffo believes the Steelers could be an ‘over’ look this August. He explained, “In Part I of my Preseason Report, I talked about how the new CBA preseason rules would affect the physical teams in the league, and the Steelers definitely fit into this mold. The change in style was apparent in last year’s preseason as the usually lower-scoring Pittsburgh games – showed a complete turnaround as the Steelers played three high-scoring games and ended the preseason seeing the over go 3-1. With the oddsmakers still leaning towards the old trends for the Steelers will give us some solid value plays on the over this preseason.”

New York

Handicapping analysts at ASA don’t expect much “pop” from the Giants’ offense in August based on recent trends. They said, “The Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 in their last 10 preseason games. The Giants have never been big on showing a lot of their starting offense in the preseason. QB Eli Manning won't see a ton of action and coaches will want to keep their wide receivers healthy. Expect more low-scoring games as they try to get their swagger back on defense as well.”

Coaching Angles

Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin has gone 11-1 SU at home in 12 preseason games with the Steelers

Betcha Didn’t Know

VI handicapper Marc Lawrence stated, “The Giants 12-6 against the spread the last 18 games as a preseason underdog against the AFC, including 4-0 the last four matchups”

[TheGame]

Bills at Colts: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 36.5)

Bills head coach Doug Marrone announced that rookie quarterback EJ Manuel will indeed get the start in Sunday's preseaon opener. Jeff Tuel will also see a good chunk of action. Due to a death in the family and left knee injury, Kolb will be sidelined versus the Colts as he practiced once in the previous week. Manuel, the Bills first round pick in the 2013 draft (16th overall), threw for 3,392 yards, 23 TDs and 10 interceptions in his senior season at Florida State. Buffalo WR Stevie Johnson will not play Sunday due to a strained hamstring which means T.J. Graham and rookies Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin will get plenty of opportunities with the first team offense. Buffalo finished the 2012 preseason 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS and 3-1 O/U.

It is expected that Colts starters will be limited to one series, possibly two, on Sunday. The focus for Indy, however, will be an overhauled defense. Defensive coordinator Greg Manusky will be watching closely as he looks to fill the void left by six defensive starters from 2012 that have moved to new teams. There is also a nice battle at running back going on in Colts camp. The No. 1 job belongs to Vick Ballard, but he's being pushed by Donald Brown and rookie Kerwynn Williams who has put in some time with the first team at camp. Ahmad Bradshaw is on the Colts' PUP list and will miss Sunday's game. Indy went 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U in the 2012 preseason.

The two teams played in Week 12 last season. The Colts prevailed 20-13 at home and covered as 2-point favorites.

[TheGame]

NFL betting: Over cashes at more than 70 percent through Week 1

Following the Buffalo Bills big 44-20 victory against the Indianapolis Colts, Week 1 of the NFL preseason is completed.

The 'over' has come through for bettors after the first 17 games of the preseason schedule going 12-5 O/U (over/under), good enough for 70.6 percent.

As we look ahead to the second week of games in the preseason schedule, here is a brief recap of the number from Week 1 which will include the inaugural Hall of Fame Game:

Favorites went 6-11 ATS (against the spread)

Favorites went 6-11 SU (straight up)

Over/Under results were 12-5 O/U

The home team went 6-11 ATS and 6-11 SU

[TheMule]

Wow, I wonder if the linesmakers' make a BIG adjustment with the Totals next week. Then again, the starters will play a lot more next week... and even more in week 3. Will the coordinators continue playing vanilla D's all pre-season long?? Really tough for me to handicap the pre-season.

[TheGame]

Wow, I wonder if the linesmakers' make a BIG adjustment with the Totals next week. Then again, the starters will play a lot more next week... and even more in week 3. Will the coordinators continue playing vanilla D's all pre-season long?? Really tough for me to handicap the pre-season.

In years past teams tend to game plan more in week 3.
Hard to put much stock into what happens in these games.
The year the Lions went 0-16 they ran the table in the pre season going 4-0

Yesterday was a perfect example of why some people shouldn't follow services in the early weeks of pre season.
The popular play was the Colts. Perception was Luck and Hasslebeck were better than anything the Bills rolled out.
Reality was neither guy played that long for the Colts. Who were also installing a new offense.
That Luck and one or two other guys had any experience with.

[TheMule]

Sometimes I don't even think the coaches know who's gonna play and for how long in these pre-season games. If I had to make a bet though, I'd try to find an OVER on the card somewhere.

[TheGame]

Best Over/Under Bets of NFL Preseason Week 2
By COVERS.COM

If you’re tackling totals this NFL preseason this week, take a look at which teams lean towards the over or the under during Week 2 of the exhibition schedule.

Records as of 1995.

Best NFL preseason Week 2 over bets

Green Bay Packers (12-5 SU, 13-4 O/U in Week 2)

The Pack finished just 1-3 O/U in the 2012 preseason, but their lone 'over' result was Week 2. Green Bay was shutout 17-0 by the Arizona Cardinals in their disappointing preseason opener a week ago. Needless to say, the Pack had issues offensively, especially running the ball. QB Aaron Rodgers was effective in his one series, an 11-play, 86 yard drive. But it ended in futility after failing to punch the ball in the end zone on fourth-and-goal. The Packers have played over the total in seven-straight Week 2 preseason games. They will travel to St. Louis to face the Rams Saturday. The total is currently 40.5.

Oakland Raiders (5-11 SU, 11-5 O/U in Week 2)

The Raiders are already 1-0 O/U after a 19-17 victory (total of 35.5) over the Dallas Cowboys in their preseason opener. Matt Flynn is on track to be the starting QB to begin the season, but Terrelle Pryor looked good against the Cowboys and gives the offense some different options when he is under center. The Raiders are in New Orleans to battle the Saints Friday. The total is currently 40. 5.

*The Raiders did not have a game in Week 2 in the 1999 preseason.

Best NFL preseason Week 2 under bets

Miami Dolphins (10-7 SU, 6-11 O/U in Week 2)

After a 24-20 loss in the Hall of Fame Game, a result that went 'over' the total, the Dolphins kept the scoreline under the total with a 27-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. QB Ryan Tannehill looked good (5-for-9, 75 yards, one TD) but there is some concern as to why he didn't throw to new WR Mike Wallace - something they may look to remedy. Miami will face the Houston Texans in a Week 2 matchup Saturday. The total is 40.5.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-12 SU, 7-10 O/U in Week 2)

The Chiefs and New Orleans Saints played 'under' the 36.5-point total in Week 1 in a 17-13 Saints victory. The Chiefs offense looked promising going 80 yards on 14 plays in the opening drive. Alex Smith looked great completing 7-for-8 passes for 68 yards in his lone drive. The Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers Friday. The total is currently listed at 40.

[TheGame]

Trent Richardson (shin) will play a "couple series" in Thursday's preseason game against the Lions.

It will be Richardson's preseason debut, and is evidence he's finally over his troublesome shin issue. T-Rich has already had one setback, but is now trending toward being 100 percent for Week 1, something he's rarely been in his young NFL career.

[TheGame]

NFL Week 2 preseason primer: Thursday betting preview
By BRYAN POWER

A look at the essentials for bettors heading into Thursday's action in the NFL, including how long starters are expected to play for each team.

Detroit at Cleveland (Pick, 41)

The Cleveland Browns won their preseason opener, 27-19 at home against the St. Louis Rams. This will be the final preseason home game for first year head coach Rob Chudzinski. Quarterback Brandon Weeden looked good last week, completing 10 of 13 passes for 112 yards and led a pair of scoring drives. Cleveland's starters outscored their St. Louis' counterparts 17-0. A decision on whether or not RB Trent Richardson will play this week will not be made until sometime Wednesday.

Like Cleveland, Detroit won its preseason opener, beating the Jets 26-17. Expect starters for both teams to play about the same amount of time as last week, if not a bit more. This is an annual preseason clash for the "Great Lakes Cup." The road team has won the last two years and Detroit holds a slight 6-5 ATS edge since '02.

Atlanta at Baltimore (-3.5, 41)

Very different results for these teams last week. The Falcons continued their preseason woes with a 34-10 home loss to Cincinnati. They are just 7-14 SU (straight up) in the preseason under Mike Smith. Atlanta has released its official depth chart already. There are major concerns along the offensive line as the team needs a new starting right tackle as Mike Johnson has been lost for the season. Backup quarterback Dominique Davis looked awful last week, completing only 8 of 19 passes for 78 yards and one interception.

Baltimore went to Tampa Bay last week and routed the Bucs 44-16. The defending Super Bowl champs looked very good in doing so. Backup QB Tyrod Taylor completed 13 of 23 passes for 154 yards and two touchdowns, so give the Ravens the edge when the starting quarterbacks leave.

Carolina at Philadelphia (-3, 42)

This will be first year head coach Chip Kelly's last chance to win a home game before the regular season. The Eagles lost last week 31-22 to the Patriots. Obviously, the big story in Philly is the battle for the starting QB job between Mike Vick and Nick Foles. Both threw a touchdown pass last week. It is Foles turn to start this week. It appears as if Kelly will keep his "up-tempo" offense under wraps during the preseason.

Carolina won its preseason opener 24-17 at home over the Chicago Bears in spite of some sloppy play. Quarterback Cam Newton threw a terrible pick six. Rookie running back Kenjon Barner had a pair of fumbles.

San Diego at Chicago (-5, 38)

The San Diego Chargers have a lot of problems. They were beaten at home last week 31-10 by the Seattle Seahawks, which was first year head coach Mike McCoy's debut. There are major injury issues at the receiver position. Danario Alexander is gone for the season with an ACL and Malcom Floyd has a strained knee. I think its going to be a long season here. Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst threw two picks and was sacked three times last week.

The Bears lost Marc Trestman's debut to Carolina last week despite forcing four turnovers. This will be Trestman's debut at Soldier Field. The first string offense ran the ball only once against nine pass plays in the opener. The offensive line allowed seven sacks.

[TheGame]

NFL Trends & Angles - Preseason Week 2
Insiderangles.com

The first week of the 2013 preseason is in the books, and if you include the Hall of Fame Game two weeks ago, the underdogs are 11-6, 64.7 percent ATS thus far, continuing the Week 1/Halll of Fame week pattern of the previous 13 preseasons and again showing why bettors that refuse to bet on the preseason could be missing out on a gold mine, especially considering that the 11 covering underdogs all won straight up!

The anomaly thus far this preseason has been with totals, as the 'over' is 12-5 after the 'under' performed better in the early weeks the prior 13 years. Do not be surprised if the 'under' has a nice bounce-back week here in Week 2 though with novice bettors flocking to the 'overs' after the Week 1 success and the oddsmakers most likely padding the totals a tad in anticipation of this.

As we said last week, every week of preseason has its own characteristics, and while Week 2 has traditionally been underdog-friendly in general, it has also been a contrarian's dream as a nice profit could have been made over the years simply by playing on teams that lost straight up in Week 1 and against teams that won straight up in Week 1.

We will have more on that in a minute, but first let us take a look at the updated records of the four coaches that have had great preseason records that we recommended last week you should follow throughout the preseason. Right on cue, these coaches went 3-1 both straight up and ATS last week.

Mike Shanahan (Washington Redskins): The Redskins beat the Tennessee Titans as small underdogs in Week 1, bringing Shanahan to 50-23 straight up in preseason with the Denver Broncos and Redskins combined, and his teams are now 31-18-1, 63.3 percent ATS since 2000.

Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): Tomlin was the only coach among the "Big Four" to lose in Week 1 as his Steelers lost to the New York Giants. That still leaves Tomlin at a sparkling 19-7 straight up since becoming Pittsburgh's coach in 2007, and we will have more on him the final week of preseason as he is 6-0 straight up in Week 4.

John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens): Harbaugh and his Super Bowl Champion Ravens destroyed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44-16, making him 14-7 straight up overall since becoming coach of the defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens in 2008, including 13-4 straight up and 11-6, 64.7 percent ATS since 2009.

Jim Schwartz (Detroit Lions): The Lions could have used a nice start this preseason after a miserable regular season last year and they got one with a nine-point win over the New York Jets. Coach Schwartz is now 13-4 straight up and 12-5, 70.6 percent ATS since becoming Detroit coach in 2009.

Moving on to Week 2, this could be the week with the most profit potential of all, and as stated earlier, an inordinately high percentage of Week 2 results since 2000 have been inversely correlated to Week 1.

For example, blindly playing all Week 2 teams ATS coming off of Week 1 straight up losses has gone 118-84-3, 58.4 percent ATS the last 13 years, and teams coming off Week 1 wins are 86-120-1 ATS for a 58.3 percent fade!

Some more specific derivatives of these overall trends follow below. Note that all stated Trends & Angles records both ATS and straight up are since the 2000 preseason.

Play on Week 2 underdogs coming off a straight up loss (67-27-2, 71.3% ATS)

No that is not a misprint, as teams that have lost straight up in Week 1 and are then underdogs in Week 2 have covered at better than a 71 percent clip over 94 decisions in 13 years, and yet people still refuse to bet on preseason! These exhibition games are all about motivation, and in Week 2, teams that lost their openers are usually motivated to put forth a better performance to at the very least gain some peace of mind. Remember that talent means nothing in these games, so this angle even works if the underdog off a loss is among the very worst teams in the league.

Play against Week 2 favorites coming off a straight up win (60-37-1, 61.9% ATS)

This is actually the exact opposite angle as our previous one. Teams that won in Week 1 often feel some sense of contentment getting a preseason win out of the way, and now the coaches can put a greater emphasis on evaluating personnel in Week 2, especially with the regular season dress rehearsal coming up in Week 3. Had the team lost Week 1, then most coaches would have had more of a balance between evaluating players and trying to get a win.

Play on any Week 2 team coming off a straight up loss against a team coming off of a straight up win (67-37-1, 64.4% ATS):
This angle combines the two motivations from our first two angles, except that it applies to all games and not only underdogs, so this is one of our few preseason trends that actually points to some favorites.

Week 2 coaches

Starting with the Big Four, Shanahan is 9-6 straight up in Week 2 with the Broncos and Redskins, Tomlin is 4-2, Harbaugh is 3-2 and Schwartz is 3-1.

Here are some other notable Week 2 marks.

Jeff Fisher (St. Louis Rams, 10-5): This is Fisher's combined record with the Rams and the Tennessee Titans, and he is 9-6 ATS in these games. Last year was Fisher's first with St. Louis and he beat the Kansas City Chiefs easily 31-17 in Week 2.

Mike Smith (Atlanta Falcons, 1-4): Taking this a step further, Smith is also 1-5 in Week 1 after losing last week and 1-4 in Week 4, but he is 4-1 in Week 3, indicating that the regular season dress rehearsal next week will be the only week he takes seriously.

[TheGame]

Bills coach Doug Marrone announced Wednesday that Kolb will start at quarterback in the team’s second preseason game. Kolb did not play in the opener after tweaking his knee after slipping on a rubber mat while Manuel played the entire half and played fairly well in his first NFL action of any kind.

The Tom Brady knee “injury” that had everyone freaking out on Wednesday afternoon apparently wasn’t even serious enough to make him sit out a preseason game.


Brady intends to practice today and play in Friday night’s preseason game against the Buccaneers, Ed Werder of ESPN reports.

[TheGame]

Coby Fleener (concussion) is expected to play in Sunday's preseason game against the Giants.
Although it's Fleener's second concussion in as many seasons, he's gained quick clearance