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NFL Betting. Sunday Week 14. Stats, trends & more.
NFL Week 14
Raiders (4-8) @ Jets (5-7) — Jets are first team since ’08 Browns to score 3 or less points in consecutive games, with 15 3/outs on 24 drives in last two games; they’re 0-3 since their bye, losing by 23-16-20 points, yet they stick with overmatched rookie QB Smith, who was yanked for Simms (non-starter for bad college team) in second half last week. In their seven losses, Jets are -19 (2-21) in turnovers; they’re +1 (6-5) in five wins. Oakland is on road for 4th time in last five weeks; they’ve lost four of last five games, with only win at 2-10 Houston. Raiders have only six takeaways in last five games, but are 4-2 as road underdogs, covering last three away games- they averaged over 8 yards/pass attempt in last two games, a good sign. Home side won seven of last nine series games; Raiders lost last three games with Jets here, but haven’t been here since ’06- their last win over Jets here was in ’96. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 5-3 vs spread, 4-2 at home; AFC West underdogs are 9-4 vs spread, 6-1 on road. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Oakland games, 7-3 in last ten Jet games.
Chiefs (9-3) @ Redskins (3-9) — Chiefs lost last three games after 9-0 start, but two of those were vs Broncos; they were outscored 52-31 in second half of last two games, as injury problems on DL mount, but what better team to face now than sliding Redskins, who lost last four games and are coming off of pair of primetime losses. KC is 4-1 on road, allowing 17 or less points in the four wins- they’re 5-4 as favorites this year, 3-0 on road. Washington was up 14-0 early vs Giants Sunday and still lost, as reports of unrest between QB/coach spread; Redskins have two TDs, three FGs on last seven red zone drives and only three takeaways (-1) in last four games. Skins are 2-4 at home, with wins 45-41/30-24 OT; their last eight losses are all by 7+ points. Chiefs won last five games in seldom-played series; last time they lost to Washington was thirty years ago- they’re 3-1 in last four visits here. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 10-9 vs spread, 5-4 on road; NFC East underdogs are 5-7, 1-2 at home. Last three Redskin games and four of five KC road games stayed under the total.
Vikings (3-8-1) @ Ravens (6-6) — Minnesota played deep into OT last two weeks, going 1-0-1 after 2-8 start; they’ve covered four of last five games, beating Bears last week with Cassel playing most of game- its amazing they paid Josh Freeman $2M to play one dismal Monday night game, and he hasn’t appeared since. Minnesota ran ball for 232/246 yards last two weeks, as Peterson appears healed from his injury- they’ve still allowed 26+ points in 10 of 12 games. Only once in last five Raven games has their opponent rushed for more than 104 yards, and that was an overtime game. Eight of last nine Baltimore games were decided by 6 or less points, or in OT; Ravens won three of last four, are 5-1 vs spread at home, 3-1 when favored. Home team won last three series games; Vikings lost last two games here 19-3/30-23, as home side won last three series games. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 3-7 vs spread, 2-6 on road; AFC North home favorites are 5-3. 10 of 12 Minnesota games went over the total; five of six Baltimore home games stayed under.
Browns (4-8) @ Patriots (9-3) — Belichick was once fired by Browns, but it was old Brown franchise who are now the Ravens; Patriots are 5-2 vs new Browns, with home side winning five of last six meetings. Cleveland lost its three visits here, by 11-6-17 points. Browns’ WR Josh Gordon has run amuck last two games, catching xx passes for 4xx yards, and that is with suspect Weeden at QB; Cleveland is 0-5 in his starts this year, with three losses by 14+ points. Browns lost last three games, were favored in last two; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 8-18-6-21 points, with win at Minnesota when Hoyer was QB. Patriots won last two games 34-31, rallying from down 10 at half last week in Houston; they’ve covered last five home games, are 4-1 as home favorites, winning in Foxboro by 3-20-3-10-24-3 points. In last three games, Patriot opponents are 22 of last 40 (55%) on third down. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 8-5-2, 4-2 at home. Over is 5-2 in last seven games for both teams.
Colts (8-4) @ Bengals (8-4) — Both sides appear headed to division title, but Cincy still has games left with Steelers/Ravens, so they’ve got more urgency than Indy squad that has basically sewed up division title. Bengals have revenge game with Steelers next week; they’re 4-0 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 10-4-7-40-21 points. Colts won seven of last eight games in what would be regional rivalry if teams played in same division; they’re 8-3 at Cincy, winning last three visits since ’96. Indy had four takeaways (+3) last week after having total of two in last four games- they’re 4-2 SU on road this year, 3-1 vs spread as road dogs. Bengals outscored last five opponents in second half by combined total of 75-28. In last four games, Indy allowed TD drives of 82-64-80 on first drive of second half. Colts scored 11 or less points in three of their four losses. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-3 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 6-5-1. Five of last six Indy games went over total; three of last four Bengal games stayed under.
Panthers (9-3) @ Saints (9-3) — Evidence is clear; Saints are way better at home, scoring 33 ppg while going 5-0-1 as home favorite, with wins by 6-24-21-18-32-3 points- they’re coming off dismal effort in Seattle Monday night- NO scores only 18.8 ppg on road. Carolina won/covered its last eight games, with Patriots (24-20) only team in streak to score more than 16 points; Panthers are 3-1 as an underdog this year, with only non-cover 12-7 (+3.5) at home vs Seattle in season opener. Last three games, Carolina drove ball on first drive of second half for TDs of 81-83-78 yards, so sound halftime adjustments are being made. Panthers swept Saints LY when Payton wasn’t coaching- they lost last four games to Payton, are 1-3 in last four visits to Superdome, losing by 10-2-28 points. Carolina defense allowed only seven offensive TDs on its last 82 drives. NFC South home teams are 7-1 vs spread in divisional games this year, 5-0 when favored. Last four Carolina games stayed under the total; four of last six Saint games also stayed under. Teams meet again in two weeks in Charlotte.
Lions (7-5) @ Eagles (7-5) — Philly won last four games, scoring 31 ppg, as Foles establishes himself as an elite QB; Eagles have only one turnover (+8) in last four games, winning last two at Linc after breaking 0-12 spread skid at home (they’re still 1-13 ATS in last 14 at home). Detroit has 17 turnovers (-13) in its last five games, as they continuously shoot themselves in foot; Lions are 3-3 SU on road, but were favored in four of six games. Iggles won six of last seven series games, with average total in last four, 59.0. Lions lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 21-7-1-35 points. NFC North non-divisional road teams are 4-10 vs spread; NFC East home teams are 6-9. Five of last seven Detroit games went over the total; five of last six Philly games stayed under. You’d think Lions have edge with 10-day break after Thanksgiving game, but they’ve lost post-Turkey game last five years, so not so much. There was speculation from couple Michigan guys on radio Monday night that Schwartz is gone if Lions miss playoffs, with Nick Saban a possible successor.
Dolphins (6-6) @ Steelers (5-7) — Miami is 5-1 when it allows 20 or less points, 1-5 when it allows more; they’re 3-3 on road, 3-2 as road dogs. Dolphins lost last five games in this series, with last three by six or less points; they’ve lost last three visits here, by 3-11-3 points. 20 years ago, Joe Philbin was OL coach at a D-III school an hour north of Pittsburgh that won national title; his WR coach O’Keefe was head coach of that team, so Fish figure to have some support here, but with Steelers winning three of last four games (4-0 vs spread) to get back into contention, not much support. Pitt started season 0-4, has rallied behind great QB Roethlisberger, who was sacked once in last three games, after being dumped 36 times in first nine games. Steelers haven’t turned ball over in last three games, are +7 in turnovers in last four. Miami has been terrible in red zone in last two games, scoring 12 points on five drives inside opponents’ 20. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 2-9 against the spread; AFC North home favorites are 5-3. Under is 5-0-1 in Dolphins’ last six games.
Bills (4-8) @ Bucs (3-9) — Over last seven games, on first drive of second half by both teams, Buffalo has been outscored 41-0, including offense giving up TD, so staff that was mostly in college LY is getting outwitted at halftime. Bills lost four of last five games, losing OT game in Toronto to Falcons last week when they led by 10 early on. Buffalo is 1-4 SU/ATS on road, with losses by 7-13-18-13 points. Tampa Bay had 3-game win streak stopped cold in Charloitte last week; Bucs are 2-4 SU this year in game with spread of 3 or less- they’re 1-2 as a favorite and beat Miami/Atlanta in last two home games. Bills allowed 140.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games. Tampa won six of nine series games, with eight of the nine played here; Bills haven’t visited here since a 19-3 loss in ’05. Weird slate of games this weekend, with only four divisional games, and four interconference games. AFC East road underdogs are 2-9 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 7-2-1. Over is 6-2 in last eight Buffalo games, 5-2-1 in last eight Tampa games.
Titans (5-7) @ Broncos (10-2) — Denver gets coach Fox back on sidelines after KC/NE/KC stretch that finds Broncos in first place, with last four games vs teams all with sub-.500 records. Denver is 5-1 as home favorites, with only non-cover when they laid 26 to Jags; they’ve won home games by 22-16-32-16-24-10 points. Titans lost six of last eight games, falling 22-14 in Indy last week despite giving up only one TD, but also five FGs; they’re 5-1 vs spread on road, 3-1 as road dog, losing away games by 6-7-8 points, with wins by Pitt/Rams/Oakland. In last five games, Titans converted 39 of 74 on 3rd down- they’ve run ball for 134.7 ypg in last three games. Denver won five of last seven series games; Titans lost last four visits here-- when he was with Colts, Manning won 13 of his last 16 games vs division rival Titans. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West favorites are 10-9, 5-5 at home. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Tennessee games, 10-2 in Bronco games. Is lack of practice hurting #18? Denver scored first drive TD in five of first nine games, but none in last three.
Raiders (4-8) @ Jets (5-7) — Jets are first team since ’08 Browns to score 3 or less points in consecutive games, with 15 3/outs on 24 drives in last two games; they’re 0-3 since their bye, losing by 23-16-20 points, yet they stick with overmatched rookie QB Smith, who was yanked for Simms (non-starter for bad college team) in second half last week. In their seven losses, Jets are -19 (2-21) in turnovers; they’re +1 (6-5) in five wins. Oakland is on road for 4th time in last five weeks; they’ve lost four of last five games, with only win at 2-10 Houston. Raiders have only six takeaways in last five games, but are 4-2 as road underdogs, covering last three away games- they averaged over 8 yards/pass attempt in last two games, a good sign. Home side won seven of last nine series games; Raiders lost last three games with Jets here, but haven’t been here since ’06- their last win over Jets here was in ’96. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 5-3 vs spread, 4-2 at home; AFC West underdogs are 9-4 vs spread, 6-1 on road. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Oakland games, 7-3 in last ten Jet games.
Chiefs (9-3) @ Redskins (3-9) — Chiefs lost last three games after 9-0 start, but two of those were vs Broncos; they were outscored 52-31 in second half of last two games, as injury problems on DL mount, but what better team to face now than sliding Redskins, who lost last four games and are coming off of pair of primetime losses. KC is 4-1 on road, allowing 17 or less points in the four wins- they’re 5-4 as favorites this year, 3-0 on road. Washington was up 14-0 early vs Giants Sunday and still lost, as reports of unrest between QB/coach spread; Redskins have two TDs, three FGs on last seven red zone drives and only three takeaways (-1) in last four games. Skins are 2-4 at home, with wins 45-41/30-24 OT; their last eight losses are all by 7+ points. Chiefs won last five games in seldom-played series; last time they lost to Washington was thirty years ago- they’re 3-1 in last four visits here. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 10-9 vs spread, 5-4 on road; NFC East underdogs are 5-7, 1-2 at home. Last three Redskin games and four of five KC road games stayed under the total.
Vikings (3-8-1) @ Ravens (6-6) — Minnesota played deep into OT last two weeks, going 1-0-1 after 2-8 start; they’ve covered four of last five games, beating Bears last week with Cassel playing most of game- its amazing they paid Josh Freeman $2M to play one dismal Monday night game, and he hasn’t appeared since. Minnesota ran ball for 232/246 yards last two weeks, as Peterson appears healed from his injury- they’ve still allowed 26+ points in 10 of 12 games. Only once in last five Raven games has their opponent rushed for more than 104 yards, and that was an overtime game. Eight of last nine Baltimore games were decided by 6 or less points, or in OT; Ravens won three of last four, are 5-1 vs spread at home, 3-1 when favored. Home team won last three series games; Vikings lost last two games here 19-3/30-23, as home side won last three series games. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 3-7 vs spread, 2-6 on road; AFC North home favorites are 5-3. 10 of 12 Minnesota games went over the total; five of six Baltimore home games stayed under.
Browns (4-8) @ Patriots (9-3) — Belichick was once fired by Browns, but it was old Brown franchise who are now the Ravens; Patriots are 5-2 vs new Browns, with home side winning five of last six meetings. Cleveland lost its three visits here, by 11-6-17 points. Browns’ WR Josh Gordon has run amuck last two games, catching xx passes for 4xx yards, and that is with suspect Weeden at QB; Cleveland is 0-5 in his starts this year, with three losses by 14+ points. Browns lost last three games, were favored in last two; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 8-18-6-21 points, with win at Minnesota when Hoyer was QB. Patriots won last two games 34-31, rallying from down 10 at half last week in Houston; they’ve covered last five home games, are 4-1 as home favorites, winning in Foxboro by 3-20-3-10-24-3 points. In last three games, Patriot opponents are 22 of last 40 (55%) on third down. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 8-5-2, 4-2 at home. Over is 5-2 in last seven games for both teams.
Colts (8-4) @ Bengals (8-4) — Both sides appear headed to division title, but Cincy still has games left with Steelers/Ravens, so they’ve got more urgency than Indy squad that has basically sewed up division title. Bengals have revenge game with Steelers next week; they’re 4-0 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 10-4-7-40-21 points. Colts won seven of last eight games in what would be regional rivalry if teams played in same division; they’re 8-3 at Cincy, winning last three visits since ’96. Indy had four takeaways (+3) last week after having total of two in last four games- they’re 4-2 SU on road this year, 3-1 vs spread as road dogs. Bengals outscored last five opponents in second half by combined total of 75-28. In last four games, Indy allowed TD drives of 82-64-80 on first drive of second half. Colts scored 11 or less points in three of their four losses. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-3 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 6-5-1. Five of last six Indy games went over total; three of last four Bengal games stayed under.
Panthers (9-3) @ Saints (9-3) — Evidence is clear; Saints are way better at home, scoring 33 ppg while going 5-0-1 as home favorite, with wins by 6-24-21-18-32-3 points- they’re coming off dismal effort in Seattle Monday night- NO scores only 18.8 ppg on road. Carolina won/covered its last eight games, with Patriots (24-20) only team in streak to score more than 16 points; Panthers are 3-1 as an underdog this year, with only non-cover 12-7 (+3.5) at home vs Seattle in season opener. Last three games, Carolina drove ball on first drive of second half for TDs of 81-83-78 yards, so sound halftime adjustments are being made. Panthers swept Saints LY when Payton wasn’t coaching- they lost last four games to Payton, are 1-3 in last four visits to Superdome, losing by 10-2-28 points. Carolina defense allowed only seven offensive TDs on its last 82 drives. NFC South home teams are 7-1 vs spread in divisional games this year, 5-0 when favored. Last four Carolina games stayed under the total; four of last six Saint games also stayed under. Teams meet again in two weeks in Charlotte.
Lions (7-5) @ Eagles (7-5) — Philly won last four games, scoring 31 ppg, as Foles establishes himself as an elite QB; Eagles have only one turnover (+8) in last four games, winning last two at Linc after breaking 0-12 spread skid at home (they’re still 1-13 ATS in last 14 at home). Detroit has 17 turnovers (-13) in its last five games, as they continuously shoot themselves in foot; Lions are 3-3 SU on road, but were favored in four of six games. Iggles won six of last seven series games, with average total in last four, 59.0. Lions lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 21-7-1-35 points. NFC North non-divisional road teams are 4-10 vs spread; NFC East home teams are 6-9. Five of last seven Detroit games went over the total; five of last six Philly games stayed under. You’d think Lions have edge with 10-day break after Thanksgiving game, but they’ve lost post-Turkey game last five years, so not so much. There was speculation from couple Michigan guys on radio Monday night that Schwartz is gone if Lions miss playoffs, with Nick Saban a possible successor.
Dolphins (6-6) @ Steelers (5-7) — Miami is 5-1 when it allows 20 or less points, 1-5 when it allows more; they’re 3-3 on road, 3-2 as road dogs. Dolphins lost last five games in this series, with last three by six or less points; they’ve lost last three visits here, by 3-11-3 points. 20 years ago, Joe Philbin was OL coach at a D-III school an hour north of Pittsburgh that won national title; his WR coach O’Keefe was head coach of that team, so Fish figure to have some support here, but with Steelers winning three of last four games (4-0 vs spread) to get back into contention, not much support. Pitt started season 0-4, has rallied behind great QB Roethlisberger, who was sacked once in last three games, after being dumped 36 times in first nine games. Steelers haven’t turned ball over in last three games, are +7 in turnovers in last four. Miami has been terrible in red zone in last two games, scoring 12 points on five drives inside opponents’ 20. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 2-9 against the spread; AFC North home favorites are 5-3. Under is 5-0-1 in Dolphins’ last six games.
Bills (4-8) @ Bucs (3-9) — Over last seven games, on first drive of second half by both teams, Buffalo has been outscored 41-0, including offense giving up TD, so staff that was mostly in college LY is getting outwitted at halftime. Bills lost four of last five games, losing OT game in Toronto to Falcons last week when they led by 10 early on. Buffalo is 1-4 SU/ATS on road, with losses by 7-13-18-13 points. Tampa Bay had 3-game win streak stopped cold in Charloitte last week; Bucs are 2-4 SU this year in game with spread of 3 or less- they’re 1-2 as a favorite and beat Miami/Atlanta in last two home games. Bills allowed 140.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games. Tampa won six of nine series games, with eight of the nine played here; Bills haven’t visited here since a 19-3 loss in ’05. Weird slate of games this weekend, with only four divisional games, and four interconference games. AFC East road underdogs are 2-9 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 7-2-1. Over is 6-2 in last eight Buffalo games, 5-2-1 in last eight Tampa games.
Titans (5-7) @ Broncos (10-2) — Denver gets coach Fox back on sidelines after KC/NE/KC stretch that finds Broncos in first place, with last four games vs teams all with sub-.500 records. Denver is 5-1 as home favorites, with only non-cover when they laid 26 to Jags; they’ve won home games by 22-16-32-16-24-10 points. Titans lost six of last eight games, falling 22-14 in Indy last week despite giving up only one TD, but also five FGs; they’re 5-1 vs spread on road, 3-1 as road dog, losing away games by 6-7-8 points, with wins by Pitt/Rams/Oakland. In last five games, Titans converted 39 of 74 on 3rd down- they’ve run ball for 134.7 ypg in last three games. Denver won five of last seven series games; Titans lost last four visits here-- when he was with Colts, Manning won 13 of his last 16 games vs division rival Titans. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West favorites are 10-9, 5-5 at home. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Tennessee games, 10-2 in Bronco games. Is lack of practice hurting #18? Denver scored first drive TD in five of first nine games, but none in last three.
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