NFL Betting Info. Week 1

[TheGame]

Game of the Day: Ravens at Broncos
By Covers.com

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 48)

The Denver Broncos have had nearly eight months to stew over a stunning season-ending loss in January - one that propelled the Baltimore Ravens on their surprising run to a Super Bowl championship. Denver has a chance to exact some revenge when they host the Ravens on Thursday night in the NFL's season-opening game. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning had won nine straight against the Ravens, including a 17-point rout a month earlier, before Baltimore's 38-35 double-overtime playoff victory.

Much has changed for both teams since Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco averted a certain defeat with a 70-yard tying touchdown strike to Jacoby Jones with 31 seconds to play in regulation. Baltimore has undergone a dramatic roster overhaul, with future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis sliding into retirement, perennial Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed lost to free agency and the trade of Super Bowl hero Anquan Boldin to San Francisco. Flacco became the league's highest-paid player, while Denver added some key pieces to fortify Manning's offense.

LINE: The Broncos opened at -9 and were bet up as large as -10.5 at some books. Recent action has been on the Ravens and has dropped the spread to as low as -7 at some markets. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 48.

WEATHER: There is a 16 percent chance of thunderstorms in Denver with temperatures in the mid 80s and winds blowing south at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (2012: 10-6, tied for first AFC North, 6-9-1 ATS): Flacco's regular-season numbers were ordinary - 3,817 yards with 22 TD passes and 10 interceptions - but he was off the charts in the postseason with 11 scoring passes and zero picks en route to winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Third-year speedster Torrey Smith heads an inexperienced receiving corps that suffered a jolt when starting tight end Dennis Pitta dislocated his hip, putting his season in jeopardy. Ray Rice has rushed for at least 1,143 yards in four straight seasons and leads all NFL backs with 278 receptions during that span, but questions abound on a defense that surrendered nearly five points more per game in 2012 than in the previous season.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2012: 13-3, first AFC West, 10-6 ATS): Manning guided Denver to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and 11 consecutive wins to close the regular season after sitting out 2011 due to multiple neck surgeries. Wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker both went over 1,000 yards and combined for 179 catches and 23 touchdowns and will be joined by reception machine Wes Welker, who had at least 111 catches in five of six seasons with New England. Rookie running back Montee Ball set the FBS record for career touchdowns but will open the season as the backup to Ronnie Hillman. Denver also has a huge void to plug on defense after sack-master Von Miller was suspended six games for violating the league's drug policy.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Denver.
* Under is 5-1 in Broncos' last six Thursday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning's 37 TD passes and 4.659 yards last season were both the second-highest totals of his storied career.

2. Baltimore's John Harbaugh is the first coach to win a playoff game in each of his first five seasons.

3. Ravens DE Elvis Dumervil, a three-time Pro Bowler with Denver, wound up signing with Baltimore in March after his signed contract agreement with the Broncos arrived just minutes after the league deadline.

[TheGame]

Ravens at Broncos
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the highly-anticipated rematch of the epic divisional playoff battle between the Ravens and Broncos. Baltimore knocked off Denver in two overtimes to end the Broncos' 11-game winning streak in Peyton Manning's debut in the Mile High City, en route to the franchise's second Super Bowl title. Now, the Broncos will take the field to get this campaign started again at Sports Authority Field against the Ravens as substantial favorites.

Rewinding back to the second round contest in January, Denver received a jolt of out the gate thanks to a 90-yard punt return for a score by Trindon Holliday less than three minutes in. The Ravens answered with a 59-yard touchdown strike from Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith to even things up at 7-7, while Baltimore's Corey Graham intercepted Manning and took the pick back 39 yards for a touchdown to give the Ravens a 14-7 lead five minutes into the game.

Following a pair of Manning touchdown strikes to Brandon Stokley and Knowshon Moreno to grab the lead back at 21-14 in the second quarter, Flacco connected again with Smith in the final minute of the first half to tie the game at 21-21 heading into halftime. The game total closed at 44, clinching an 'over' with a whole half to play since obviously there would need to be another score to break the deadlock.

Holliday stunned Baltimore's special teams coverage again with a 104-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to start the second half, giving the Broncos back the advantage, 28-21. After Denver held a 35-28 lead and playing prevent defense in the final minute of regulation, Flacco aired out a 70-yard pass to Jacoby Jones, who got behind Denver's defense to even the game up again, while helping out Baltimore backers who grabbed the Ravens and 9 ½ points.

Justin Tucker's 48-yard field goal in the second overtime propelled Baltimore back to the AFC Title Game, as the Ravens own a 9-4 SU/ATS record in the playoffs since John Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2008. Heading into Thursday's opener, Baltimore looks to improve on a 7-4 ATS record in the role of an underdog dating back to the start of the 2011 season, although three of those defeats came in 2012 to the Bengals, Redskins, and Texans on the road.

The Broncos eclipsed the 30-point mark in eight of nine games at Sports Authority Field last season, resulting in a 6-2-1 mark to the 'over.' John Fox's club profited in the home favorite role by cashing six of eight times, with one of the ATS defeats coming as 7 ½-point 'chalk' in a seven-point victory over the Chargers.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero gives his spin on this contest, "The Ravens have a few more questions to answer than Denver, which does have issues given its attrition at the center spot early in camp. That said, it's far more compelling to see how the defending champs replace staples on both sides of the ball. Making up for the production of Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta won't happen overnight, which is why Baltimore finds itself such a decided underdog. The odds of them coming up with another magical comeback works against them, making a strong start imperative."

Baltimore is the first defending Super Bowl champion to be listed as an underdog in the season opener since Tampa Bay back in 2003. The Buccaneers won outright as three-point 'dogs at Philadelphia, 17-0, as the Eagles lost in the revenge role after losing to Tampa Bay in the NFC Championship the season before.

For those that take preseason into account when looking ahead to Week 1, both the Ravens and Broncos finished the exhibition campaign at 2-2. Denver covered just once, coming in the preseason opener at San Francisco, while the 'over' cashed in each of the final three contests. Baltimore took care of Tampa Bay and Atlanta in the first two exhibition games, but lost to Carolina and St. Louis in the last two contests.

The Thursday season-opener has been a low-scoring affair since 2007, as the 'under' has hit five of six times. Last season's initial game (which was played on a Wednesday) saw the Cowboys knock off the defending champion Giants, 24-17 as three-point underdogs, while the contest finished 'under' the total of 44½.

From the coaching perspective, Harbaugh has never lost a season opener in his career, posting a 5-0 SU/ATS record, but only one of those games came on the road (2010 at Jets). In Fox's first 11 seasons as an NFL head coach with the Panthers and Broncos, his teams have put together a dreadful 1-5 ATS mark in Week 1 contests in the favorite role (only cover against Steelers last season).

The Broncos opened up as 8½-point favorites with the number creeping up to nine at several spots before settling back to 7½. The total is set between 48 ½ and 49 depending on where you shop, as the game can be seen nationally on NBC at 8:30 PM EST.

[TheGame]

Raiders K Sebastian Janikowski (calf) is listed as probable for Week 1.
"Seabass is going to play," confirms beat writer Scott Bair. "No concerns."

Rashard Mendenhall (knee) returned to a full practice Friday and is listed as probable for Week 1 at St. Louis.
He'll be all systems go. The Cardinals intend to use Alfonso Smith and Stepfan Taylor as spot backs behind Mendenhall.




Updating a previous item, Seahawks RE Cliff Avril (hamstring) is listed as doubtful for Week 1 at Carolina.
Coach Pete Carroll initially called Avril a "game-day decision," but the doubtful listing strongly indicates he will not play

[TheGame]

NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+10, 51)

Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 12 percent possibility of rain. Wind will blow across the field from the NE at 12 mph.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+3, 45)

Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and skies will be clear before giving way to partly cloudy conditions as the game progresses. There is a 17 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3, 41.5)

Forecasts in Chicago are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 40.5)

Temperatures will be in the low-70s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from the NE towards the SW endzone at 14 mph.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 42.5)

Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the mid-80s.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)

Skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures will be in the mid-70s in New York. Wind will blow from the NW towards the SE end zone at 11 mph. There is a 25 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 42.5)

There is a 26 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 49)

Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the mid-60s at Candlestick. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.

[TheGame]

NFL Week 1 Injury Watch

Here is a quick look some players who are probable, questionable, doubtful, and guys that are carrying knocks into action for Sunday's NFL schedule.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+10, 51)

Patriots

- WR Danny Amendola is nursing a groin injury but is probable Sunday
- WR Aaron Dobson has a hamstring injury and is questionable Sunday
- TE Rob Gronkowski underwent surgeries on his left forearm and also on his back during the offseason but returned to practice September 1st with full pads on. He isn't expected to be ready for Sunday's game

Bills

- QB EJ Manuel was shelved midway through the preseason due to knee surgery, but will reportedly make the start for the Bills
- S Jairus Byrd is dealing with plantar fasciitis and is not expected to play

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 42)

Titans

- LB Akeem Ayers has an ankle injury and is probable Sunday
- WR Kendall Wright is dealing with a sprained knee but is expected to play
- T David Stewart is dealing with a calf injury but is expected to play

Steelers

- FB Will Johnson has some hamstring soreness but should play
- RB Isaac Redman is dealing with a stinger but is expected to play
- DE Brett Keisel was limited in practice Friday but is expected to play

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3, 55)

Falcons

- CB Asante Samuel has quad injury which limited his practice time this week, but is expected to play
- LB Stephen Nicholas is also suffering from a quad injury but is expected to play
- K Matt Bryant has a back injury but expects to play

Saints

- WR Marques Colston has a foot injury but expects to play
- LB Martez Wilson is nursing an elbow injury but is expected to play

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)

Bucs

- CB Darrelle Revis has reportedly recovered from a torn ACL and is expected to play
- RB Mike James has an eye injury and is questionable
- TE Tom Crabtree suffered a high ankle sprain and is expected to miss Sunday's game

Jets

- WR Santonio Holmes is dealing with a foot injury but is expected to play
- QB Mark Sanchez suffered a right shoulder injury during preseason and is not available Sunday
- CB Antonio Cromartie has a hip injury and was limited in practice but is expected to play
- DT Kenrick Ellis is dealing with back injuries and is questionable

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 42.5)

Chiefs

- RB Jamaal Charles has a mild strain in his right foot but is expected to play
- TE Travis Kelce has a knee injury and is questionable
- OL Jon Asamoah did not practice due to a calf injury and is questionable
- LB Nico Johnson did not practice due to an ankle injury and is not expected to play
- DE Allen Bailey is dealing with personal issues and is questionable
- S Husain Abdullah has a foot injury and is questionable

Jaguars

- QB Blaine Gabbert has a hairline fracture in his right thumb but is expected to start
- G Will Rackley has an ankle injury and is questionable
- RB Justin Forsett was limited in practice Thursday and is questionable
- T Luke Joeckel suffered a hip flexor and is questionable
- TE Marcedes Lewis is suffering from a calf injury and did not practice this week and is reportedly ruled out
- LB Russell Allen has ankle soreness but is expected to play
- SS Johnathan Cyprien is dealing with some leg discomfort but is expected to play

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+3.5, 45)

Seahawks

- WR Sidney Rice is dealing with a nagging knee injury but is expected to play Sunday
- WR Stephen Williams is dealing with a concussion but is expected to play Sunday
- TE Zach Miller continues to be hampered by a foot injury but is expected to be ready for Sunday
- DT Brandon Mebane has a groin injury but is expeteded to be ready
- DT Tony McDaniel was suffering from a groin injury but is expected to play
- DE Cliff Avril is dealing with an aggravated hamstring injury and is questionable
- DB Brandon Browner is questionable with a hamstring injury
- DE Chris Clemons is recovering from January 17th surgery to repair a torn ACL and meniscus in his left knee and is expected to miss Sunday's game

Panthers

- WR Domenik Hixon is dealing with a hamstring injury and is questionable to play Sunday
- WR Armanti Edwards is dealing with a hamstring injury but is expected to play Sunday
- FB Michael Tolbert has a hamstring injury but practiced fully Thursday and is expected to play Sunday
- G Amini Silatolu is dealing with a hamstring injury and is questionable
- RB Kenjon Barner has an ankle injury and is doubtful
- LB Jon Beason did not practice this week due to a knee injury but is expected to play
- DT Dwan Edwards is dealing with a thigh injury and is questionable
- CB Captain Munnerlyn is questionable to play Sunday due to a hand injury
- S Mike Mitchell has a calf injury and is doubtful
- CB James Dockery is expected to miss Sunday's game against the Seahawks with a thumb injury

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3, 41.5)

Bengals

- T Andre Smith is recovering from a knee injury and is expected to play Sunday
- T Andrew Whitworth did not practice this week due to a knee injury and is doubtful to play Sunday
- G Mike Pollak has a knee injury and is not expected to play
- DE Carlos Dunlap has been recovering from a concussion but is expected to play

Bears

- WR Earl Bennett missed the entire preseason due to a concussion he sustained on August 2nd but is expected to play
- LB D.J. Williams is nursing a calf injury but is expected to play

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 41)

Dolphins

- G Nate Garner underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in mid-August and is questionable to play
- CB Dimitri Patterson is dealing with a leg injury and is questionable to play

Browns

- RB Trent Richardson is still dealing with nagging shin injury but is fully expected to play
- TE Jordan Cameron is dealing with some groin discomfort but is expected to play
- OL Shawn Lauvao underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left ankle on August 9 and will be out
- DL Ahtyba Rubin is dealing with an undisclosed injury and is questionable to play
- CB Buster Skrine has a shoulder injury and is questionable
- LB Barkevious Mingo is dealing with a bruised lung and is not expected to play

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-4.5, 47)

Vikings

- T Phil Loadholt is dealing with a knee injury but is expected to play
- DT Kevin Williams suffered a minor right knee injury in preseason action and is ruled out
- LB Erin Henderson is nursing a heel injury but is expected to play
- DT Letroy Guion is dealing with a finger injury but expects to play

Lions

- DE Ezekiel Ansah did not practice this week due to a concussion but is expected to play
- DE Jason Jones has a knee injury but is expected to play
- S Louis Delmas continues to rehab his surgically-repaired left knee but is expected to play

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 47)

Raiders

- QB Matt Flynn is dealing with tendinitis in his elbow and is not expected to play
- K Sebastian Janikowski did not practice Wednesday due to a right calf injury but is expected to play
- TE David Ausberry is nursing a shoulder injury and is doubtful to play
- T Menelik Watson is dealing with a knee injury and is not expected to play
- LB Sio Moore is dealing with a foot injury and is questionable to play

Colts

- WR Reggie Wayne is dealing with a personal matter but is expected to play
- RB Ahmad Bradshaw is nursing a foot injury but will play Sunday
- TE Dwayne Allen is dealing with a foot injury but expects to play Sunday
- TE Coby Fleener suffered a sprained knee during the preseason but is expected to be ready
- T Anthony Castonzo is dealing with a knee sprain but expects to play
- LB Pat Angerer was diagnosed with a concussion on Thursday and is doubtful
- DE Fili Moala is nursing an injured foot but is expected to play
- LB Kavell Conner is dealing with an ankle injury and is doubtful

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 49)

Packers

- WR Jordy Nelson has undergone knee surgery to clean up a lingering problem but is expected to be ready
- WR Randall Cobb is nursing a biceps injury but expects to play
- LB Brad Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury and is questionable
- S Morgan Burnett has a hamstring injury and is questionable
- CB Tramon Williams is dealing with a knee injury and is questionable
- CB Casey Hayward has a hamstring injury and is expected to miss Sunday's game

49ers

- RB LaMichael James suffered a sprained MCL and will be sidelined for an indefinite amount of time
- CB Nnamdi Asomugha has a collarbone injury but is expected to play
- LB Patrick Willis underwent surgery to repair a slight fracture in his right hand and should be ready to go

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-4.5, 41.5)

Cardinals

- RB Rashard Mendenhall suffered a minor knee sprain in preseason action but is expected to play
- WR Andre Roberts has a Quadricep injury and is questionable
- S Rashad Johnson is nursing a knee injury and is expected to play
- CB Javier Arenas is dealing with hip discomfort but is expected to play
- DE Calais Campbell is dealing with a bruised thigh and is questionable

Rams

- DE Chris Long is dealing with a knee injury but is expected to play
- S Darian Stewart is dealing with thigh discomfort and is doubtful
- DB Quinton Pointer is dealing with thigh discomfort and is doubtful

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 50)

Giants

- WR Hakeem Nicks is dealing with some groin discomfort but is expected to be ready
- WR Victor Cruz suffered a heel contusion in a preseason game but has shed his walking boot and is expected to play
- FB Henry Hynoski is questionable to play in Sunday's game against the Cowboys due to an undisclosed injury
- C David Baas is suffering from a sprained left MCL and is questionable
- S Antrel Rolle suffered a sprained right ankle during a one-on-one drill in practice but is expected to play
- DE Jason Pierre-Paul has undergone back surgery and is questionable

Cowboys

- RB Lance Dunbar did not practice Wednesday due to a foot injury and is not expected to play
- G Ronald Leary suffered a knee injury during the preseason but has returned to practice and is expected to play
- DE Anthony Spencer is doubtful after undergoing surgery on his left knee
- S Danny McCray is dealing with a hamstring injury and is doubtful
- DT Ben Bass is dealing with a shoulder injury and is expected to miss two-to-four weeks

[TheGame]

NFL Betting 25 Tidbits for Kickoff Sunday

Below is a list of 25 betting tidbits around the NFL for Sunday's action.

- The Patriots averaged 44.5 points in their two games versus the Bills last year, both of which went over the total. Number is currently 51.

- Bills WR Stevie Johnson recently stated that he felt no Patriots DB could cover him. He had eight catches for 109 yards in their two meetings last season.

- The Pittsburgh Steelers have won 10-straight home openers. The Steelers are 7-point favorites against the Titans.

- The Titans like to keep the scoring to a minimum in their Week 1 games. The under is 5-1 in their last six season openers.

- The Saints have done well against the spread at home in recent history, posting a 16-5 ATS mark in New Orleans. 3-point home faves Sunday.

- The Falcons have a new face at running back with Steven Jackson. Jackson has rushed for 1,000 yards in eight-straight seasons. The Falcons didn't have a running back eclipse 1,000 last season.

- Buccaneers CB Darrelle Revis faces his old team Sunday and with Santonio Holmes unsure if he'll play, Jeremy Kerley or Stephen Hill could be lined up against the cornerback.

- Jets rookie QB Geno Smith starts against Tampa Bay. The rook, at least, gets to face the league's worst pass defense (297.4 yards per game) last season. The Jets are 3.5-point home dogs versus Tampa Bay.

- Jags running back Maurice Jones-Drew recently told Jaguars.com that he mulled retirement during training camp and that he felt he "couldn't do this anymore". He's ready to roll know, however, and said he'll carry the rock "as many times as it takes" Sunday. Jags are 3.5-point home dogs versus the Kansas City Chiefs.

- There are many new faces on the Chiefs and hopefully that changes their opening week ATS record of late. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Week 1 games.

- The Seattle Seahawks held the Carolina Panthers to a season-low 190 yards in a 16-12 win on Oct. 7. Seahawks are 3-point road faves in Carolina.

- Carolina closed last season out very strong, posting records of 4-0 SU and ATS to end 2012.

- The Bengals fare well on the road against NFC opponents as they have been victorious in five of the last six games. Cincy is a 3-point road dog in Chicago.

- Bears QB Jay Cutler has combined to throw for 1017 yards and six TDs in the past three season openers.

- Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill only managed three touchdowns to wide receivers last season. No excuses now that big-play threat Mike Wallace in the squad.

- The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Week 1 games. This game versus Miami is listed as a pick 'em at most books.

- Vikings running back Adrian Peterson has vowed to shatter the single season rushing mark. He collected 273 yards in two games versus the Lions last season.

- The Detroit Lions closed 2012 going 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS. They were 0-2 ATS versus Minny last season. The Lions are 4-point home faves versus the Vikes Sunday.

- The Raiders will need RB Darren McFadden to get over the 100-yard mark. The Raiders are 10-2 when he does.

- The Colts were 7-1 ATS at home last season, and finished 6-0 ATS in their final six home games. Indy is favored by 10.5 at home against the Raiders.

- The 49ers allowed an NFC-low 294.4 yards per game last season. The 9ers are 4.5-point home faves versus Green Bay.

- The Pack fare well ATS in San Fran, going 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings at Candlestick.

- The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Arizona Cardinals and the St. Louis Rams. Total currently 41.5 for Sunday's game at St. Lou.

- The New York Giants finished 2012 going 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The G-Men are 3.5-point road dogs in Dallas Sunday night.

- All eyes will be on Dallas QB Tony Romo who was awarded with a massive contract extension despite tossing a career high 19 picks in 2012.

[TheGame]

NFL Week 1 Injury Report – Which absences are significant, which are overrated?
By: Matt Meiselman
Sportingnews.com

Football is without a doubt the most injury-riddled sport there is, and with so many players on each roster, there are dozens of hurt players in the league each week. The casual observer tends to see the skill players only, and much less attention is paid to defensive players and offensive linemen. Fans are often left to guess how valuable a player is, and that obviously makes handicapping more difficult.

Each week in the NFL season, there are players who are both over-accounted for and under-accounted for by those who set the lines and those who bet on them.

Here’s the Week 1 breakdown of the important injuries, and the not-so-important ones.

Important injuries:

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

When Rob Gronkowski misses games, the Patriots offense struggles. Last season, the Pats averaged 5.93 yards per play in the games they had Gronk and 5.74 yards per play in games he sat out. Those five games without Gronk were road dates against the Jets, Dolphins and Jaguars, and home games vs. the 49ers and Texans.

In the playoffs, the Pats struggled immensely to move the ball against the Ravens without Gronk, and the offense looked completely shot. Tom Brady reliance on Gronkowski will only increase now that Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez are gone. This is still a very good offense, but it’s not quite the same without its best receiving threat, who happens to be an excellent blocker as well.

2. Jay Ratliff/Anthony Spencer/Tyrone Crawford, Cowboys

Jay Ratliff’s play has declined in recent years, but the significance of his loss is more about who’s replacing him. The Cowboys will attempt to plug the gap at defensive tackle with Nick Hayden, who’s appeared in just two games since 2010 and was out of the league last season.

Anthony Spencer’s loss might be even bigger, and he’s arguably the Cowboys most skilled defensive player. He excels in both pass rushing and run stopping, and his absence leaves a major hole in the defense.

Backing up Spencer would have been Tyrone Crawford, who was also used last year to spell DeMarcus Ware, but he tore his Achilles in training camp and is done for the year.

The Cowboys defense is extremely thin up front with the loss of these three players.

3. Carl Nicks, Bucs

Nicks was diagnosed with a staph infection about two weeks ago, and the problem hasn’t gone away. He’s iffy to play in the opener against the Jets, and his absence will be very significant. Nicks played in only seven games last year before sustaining a toe injury, and Doug Martin ran just fine in the second half, so you might think Nicks isn’t all that important. But part of the reason that the Bucs are expected to take a step forward this year is an improved offensive line. Without Carl Nicks, that won’t happen.

4. Jonathan Cooper, Cardinals

The Cardinals offensive line was simply atrocious last year, so they drafted Jonathan Cooper early in the first round to fill a need at guard. Cooper was having an outstanding summer, fully expected to solidify at least part of the disastrous unit. Last week, Cooper fractured his fibula, and now the Cardinals are back to square one.

5. Bruce Irvin/Cliff Avril/Chris Clemons, Seahawks

The Seahawks have a great defense, but they may not look like it right away.

Bruce Irvin led all rookies in sacks last year despite playing mostly as a specialist, but he’s suspended for the first four games, which obviously hurts the pass rush.

Cliff Avril was signed to help out with the pass rush, but he may not play either. He was expected to be the starter at right end, so his loss is fairly important as well.

Chris Clemons is the most versatile of the Seahawks defensive ends and is essential to the run defense. He’s been ruled out with a knee injury, further depleting an insanely banged up unit.

The Seahawks are going to have a lot of trouble getting pressure and stopping the run without these guys in the lineup.

Overrated injuries:

1. Andre Brown, Giants

Brown was placed on short-term IR earlier in the week with a broken leg, so the Giants will basically be rolling with just David Wilson at running back. Anyone who thinks this is an important injury to the spread needs to reconsider. It’s not that Brown isn’t good, it’s just that Wilson’s better. The Giants aren’t going to miss Brown’s presence much, if at all, because Wilson has crazy ability. The Giants have also suggested they are comfortable increasing Wilson’s workload.

2. Le’veon Bell, Steelers

Bell has a chance to be a really good running back someday. He runs with speed, power and vision, and has shown an ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Bell isn’t necessarily great yet, though, and running back is not a hard position to replace because the offensive line has so much impact on its effectiveness. The Steelers’ line is going to make it hard to produce no matter who is in the backfield, so to expect a drop now that Isaac Redman will be carrying the rock is unreasonable. The rushing attack was going to struggle either way.

3. David Diehl, Giants

Over the last three seasons, David Diehl has been far and away the worst starting offensive lineman in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. It may seem like the Giants are losing something with him being out on Sunday, but in reality, they are a better football team with just about anyone else playing right tackle.

4. Kevin Kolb, Bills

Anyone who watched football last year knows that Kevin Kolb is terribly ineffective, so it doesn’t make much sense that his absence would attract betting action against the Bills. No one really knows how good EJ Manuel will be off the bat, but he’s a first-round draft pick and easily has the potential to be at least as good as Kolb. Manuel will probably struggle early on in his career, but he’s probably not going to be any worse than Kevin Kolb would have been.

5. Mark Sanchez

Take the previous blurb and swap out “Kevin Kolb” for “Mark Sanchez”. Then swap out “EJ Manuel” for “Geno Smith,” and you’ll have just about everything you need to know. Geno Smith has drawn a lot of criticism for stepping out of the end zone in the preseason, but the guy he’s replacing is the man who’s responsible for the infamous butt-fumble. At best, Smith is a lot better than Sanchez. At worst, Smith is slightly worse than Sanchez. There’s no evidence to suggest the Jets are losing anything by having to start Smith over Sanchez.

[TheGame]

Week 1 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Falcons at Saints (-3, 54½)

Preseason Records:
Atlanta - 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS
New Orleans - 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS

2012 Records:
Atlanta - 13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
New Orleans - 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS

Previous meeting results: The home team took each matchup last season, as the Saints downed the Falcons, 31-27 as one-point underdogs. The game sailed 'over' the total of 54, but the second showdown was lower-scoring as Atlanta knocked off New Orleans, 23-13 at the Georgia Dome.

2012 Week 1 results:
Atlanta routed Kansas City, 40-24 as one-point road favorites.
New Orleans lost to Washington, 40-32 as eight-point home favorites.

Bengals at Bears (-3, 42)

Preseason Records:
Cincinnati - 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Chicago - 2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS

2012 Records:
Cincinnati - 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
Chicago - 10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS

Previous meeting result: The Bengals destroyed the Bears, 45-10 at Paul Brown Stadium in 2009, as Cincinnati cashed as short underdogs. This is Cincinnati's third visit to the Windy City since 1992, as the Bengals won each of the previous two meetings at Soldier Field.

2012 Week 1 results:
Cincinnati lost at Baltimore, 44-13 as seven-point road underdogs.
Chicago dominated Indianapolis, 41-21 as 10-point home favorites.

Seahawks (-3½, 45) at Panthers

Preseason Records:
Seattle - 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
Carolina - 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS

2012 Records:
Seattle - 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS
Carolina - 7-9 SU, 9-7 ATS

Previous meeting result: The Seahawks traveled cross-country last October to beat the Panthers, 16-12 as short road underdogs. Carolina's lone touchdown came on an interception return, while the Panthers were held to 190 yards of offense. Since 2004, Seattle has taken four of five meetings from Carolina.

2012 Week 1 results:
Seattle lost at Arizona, 20-16 as one-point road favorites.
Carolina fell at Tampa Bay, 16-10 as three-point road favorites.

Vikings at Lions (-5, 47)

Preseason Records:
Minnesota - 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
Detroit - 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS

2012 Records:
Minnesota - 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
Detroit - 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS

Previous meeting results: The Vikings swept the season series in 2012, winning both times in the role of an underdog. Minnesota grabbed a 20-13 triumph at Ford Field as three-point 'dogs, while the Vikings topped the Lions at home five weeks later, 30-20. Four of the last five meetings at Ford Field have finished 'under' the total.

2012 Week 1 results:
Minnesota beat Jacksonville in overtime, 26-23 as 3½-point home favorites.
Detroit held off St. Louis, 27-23 as nine-point home favorites.

Green Bay at San Francisco (-4½, 49)

Preseason Records:
Green Bay - 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
San Francisco - 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS

2012 Records:
Green Bay - 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS
San Francisco - 11-4-1 SU, 9-7 ATS

Previous meeting results: The 49ers grabbed both meetings from the Packers last season, beating Green Bay in Week 1 and in the second round of the playoffs. San Francisco went into Lambeau Field and topped Green Bay, 30-22 as six-point underdogs in last season's opener. The Niners completed the sweep with a dominating 45-31 performance as three-point favorites to advance to the conference championship.

2012 Week 1 results:
San Francisco beat Green Bay, 30-22 as six-point road underdogs, while the game went 'over' the total of 46½.

[TheGame]

Sunday's NFL Week 1 Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+9.5, 51)

The Bills are beginning a new era with first-year head coach Doug Marrone and rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel. Manuel underwent knee surgery on Aug. 18 but is ready to go for the season opener, pushing rookie free agent Jeff Tuel back to the bench.

Tom Brady lost most of his receiving corps with Aaron Hernandez in jail, Wes Welker in Denver and Brandon Lloyd off to free agency. The perennial Pro Bowler has a slew of rookies at wide receiver to go along with import Danny Amendola until Rob Gronkowski recovers from back and forearm surgeries.

LINE: Buffalo opened as a 6.5-point home underdog but has been bet up as high as +9.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-6.0) + Bills (+6.0) – home field (-3.0) = Bills +9.0
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s, 29 percent chance of rain, winds NNE 7 mph

TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Patriots are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 42)

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has taken the Steelers to three Super Bowls - winning two - in his nine seasons, but he missed three games to injury in 2012 and starts the year with questions in the receiving corps and running game.

Titans counterpart Jake Locker sat out five games a year ago and has yet to prove he is the answer after being drafted No. 8 overall in 2008. Both teams have major questions on defense - the Steelers allowed nearly 100 points more last season than in 2011 and Tennessee was shredded for an NFL-worst 471 points.

LINE: Pittsburgh opened a 7.5-point favorite and has moved to -7. The total has dropped from 43.5 to 42.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+4.5) + Pittsburgh (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -9.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 27 percent chance of showers, winds NNW 5 mph

TRENDS:
Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3, 54)

The Saints have dominated the series in recent years, winning 11 of the past 14 meetings, but they missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2008. With head coach Sean Payton returning after being suspended last season for his role in the team's bounty scandal, New Orleans hopes to regain its supremacy over the division.

Granted, the Saints handed the Falcons their first loss last year, a 31-27 defeat in Week 10 in New Orleans, and it did little to slow Atlanta on its way to the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons returned the favor in Week 13 in Atlanta, picking off Drew Brees five times in a 23-13 win. Atlanta upgraded its offense by signing running back Steven Jackson and also coaxed tight end Tony Gonzalez back for one more season.

LINE: New Orleans opened as a 2-point favorite and moved to -3. The total has remained steady at 54.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (-4.5) - New Orleans (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -5
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in New Orleans.
* Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)

New York coach Rex Ryan looks to exploit a Buccaneers pass defense that allowed an NFL-worst 297.4 yards per game last year with rookie quarterback Geno Smith, who earned the starting nod after Mark Sanchez injured his shoulder during the fourth quarter of a preseason game .

Bucs RB Doug Martin looks for an encore after rushing for an impressive 1,454 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns during his rookie campaign. Greg Schiano's first year with Tampa Bay also saw Josh Freeman throw for a franchise-record 4,065 yards and 27 touchdowns - although nine of his 17 interceptions came in the final three games.

LINE: New York opened as 1.5-point underdogs and moved to +3.5. Total opened at 41.5 and moved to 39.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+3.0) - New York (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 15 percent chance of early showers, winds NNW 14 mph

TRENDS:
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Buccaneers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Jets’ last five games overall.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 41)

Sunday is the debut of two new head coaches, as Gus Bradley takes over in Jacksonville and Andy Reid guides the Chiefs after a long tenure in Philadelphia. It's the first meeting since 2010, when the Chiefs clobbered the Jaguars 42-20 in Kansas City, avenging a 24-21 loss in Jacksonville a year earlier.

Both did their best to address issues through the draft and free agency and have playoff hopes - however unrealistic they are. Among the key matchups will be Jacksonville's ability to establish the run and take some pressure off quarterback Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars' ability to slow down Jamaal Charles and force quarterback Alex Smith into third-and-long situations.

LINE: Jacksonville opened as a 1.5-point underdog and has moved to +4.5. The total climbed from 41 to 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (+2.0) – Jacksonville (+7.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jaguars +2.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds East 8 mph

TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Week 1.
* Jaguars are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.
* Under is 4-0 in Jaguars’ last four home games.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+3.5, 44.5)

The Seahawks won their final five regular-season games and even notched a playoff win behind quarterback Russell Wilson and now face high expectations. Carolina finished with a flurry last season with four consecutive wins and the pressure is on third-year quarterback Cam Newton to deliver the franchise’s first playoff spot since 2008.

Carolina coach Ron Rivera needs a winning season in his third year at the helm after going 13-19 over his first two seasons. Mike Shula is the Panthers’ new offensive coordinator after Rob Chudzinski left to become head coach of the Cleveland Browns.

LINE: Carolina opened as a 3.5-point underdog and moved to +4.5. Total opened at 45.5 and moved to 44.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) + Carolina (+1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers +3.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds ENE 9 mph

TRENDS:
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-2 in each Panthers and Seahawks’ last eight games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3, 41.5)

With a brand new coach and a healthy Cutler on board, the Bears begin the slow climb back to playoff contention. Replacing Lovie Smith is offensive guru Marc Trestman, who is coming off a successful coaching stint with the Montreal Alouettes of the Canadian Football League.

Bengals QB Andy Dalton and the offense faded down the stretch in 2012 and was held to 198 total yards in a first-round playoff loss to the Houston Texans.. The Bengals have won five of their last six on the road against NFC teams and are 4-1 all-time at Chicago.

LINE: Chicago opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has moved to -3. The total opened at 43.5 and moved to 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-1.0) – Chicago (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -4
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, partly cloudy skies, winds NE 13 mph

TRENDS:
* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 1.
* Under is 7-2 in Bears last nine games in Week 1.
* Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 41)

This game marks the debut of Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski, who spent the last two years as the Carolina Panthers’ offensive coordinator. Chudzinski and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner could rely heavily on RB Trent Richardson with top WR Josh Gordon suspended for violating the league’s drug policy.

Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw 12 touchdown passes as a rookie, though only three of those scoring aerials were to wide receivers. There will be no excuses for that this season, as the Dolphins signed former Steelers wideout Mike Wallace to generate big plays in the passing game.

LINE: Game opened pick and some books are dealing Cleveland -1.5. The total has moved from 41 to 40.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+1.5) – Cleveland (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Browns -0.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 70s, 25 percent chance of thunderstorms, winds NNE 13 mph

TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Dolphins are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-5, 46.5)

Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has vowed to shatter the single-season rushing mark this season. Minnesota’s offense is still a major question mark. Christian Ponder, who has surpassed 300 yards only twice in 26 starts, may be on a short leash. Minnesota swept the season series a year ago, including a 20-13 victory in Detroit.

Detroit added Reggie Bush to bolster a backfield that's been non-productive for several seasons. Bush's dual-threat presence should take some of the onus off the oft-weary shoulders of quarterback Matthew Stafford, who threw just 20 touchdown passes last season after tossing a career-high 41 in 2011. Detroit enters the season riding an eight-game losing streak.

LINE: Detroit opened as a 3-point favorite and has moved to -5. The total has moved from 47 to 46.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+1.0) – Detroit (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -3
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:
* Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 47)

The athletic but unproven Terrelle Pryor has reportedly won the Raiders QB competition with Matt Flynn and is poised to establish himself for a squad that ranked 26th in the NFL in scoring last year. Pryor threw for 150 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 49 yards and a score in Week 17 last season in his only career start.

Colts QB Andrew Luck was 7-1 at home in 2012, winning the last six. Seven of the eight home contests were decided by a touchdown or less, giving Luck plenty of time to display his abilities in the clutch. Luck's favorite target again figures to be 13-year standout Reggie Wayne, who amassed 106 catches and 1,355 yards last season.

LINE: Indianapolis opened as a -8.5 favorite and moved to -10.5. The total moved from 49 to 47 points.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+8.0) - Indianapolis (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -10
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:
* Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
* Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Under is 11-2 in Colts last 13 home games.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 48.5)

Green Bay fell 45-31 to San Francisco in the NFC divisional round but is in good shape heading into 2013 with QB Aaron Rodgers in his prime and a host of receiving weapons at his disposal. He'll be put to the test in Week 1 against a vaunted 49ers defense that finished second in the league in fewest points against.

The San Francisco offense belongs to quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The Green Bay defense is ready to go after the nimble QB, who racked up 181 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay in their playoff showdown.

LINE: San Francisco opened -5 and has dropped to -4.5. The total has been adjusted from 50.5 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (-6.5) – San Francisco (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -4.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, clear skies, winds WSW 6 mph

TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in San Francisco.
* Packers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-4.5, 41.5)

Longtime Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher is back for his second season with the Rams while Bruce Arians takes the reins for the Cardinals. He will be charged with reviving a team that produced an NFC-low 250 points and lost 11 of its final 12 games after bolting out to a 4-0 start last season.

St. Louis, surprisingly, had the best record within its division and looks to continue its ascent behind a youthful squad that features electrifying rookie receiver Tavon Austin. Daryl Richardson gets first crack at replacing free-agent departure RB Steven Jackson in the backfield and will run behind a beefed-up line that added former No. 1 overall pick Jake Long.

LINE: St. Louis opened as a 5-point favorite and moved to -4.5. The total has moved from 41 to 41.5 points.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+5.0) – St. Louis (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Rams -5.5
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in St. Louis.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
* Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC West.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48.5)

The New York Giants attempt to continue their dominance at Cowboys Stadium Sunday night. New York has won all four of its games in Dallas' new stadium since it opened in 2009, including a 29-24 triumph on Oct. 28. The Giants have captured six of the last eight overall meetings between the NFC East rivals.

New York hopes to have Victor Cruz in the lineup as the wide receiver suffered a bruised heel in the second week of the preseason and just returned to practice on Monday. Dallas looks to improve upon the 19th-ranked defense in the league in 2012. In an effort to accomplish this goal, the club replaced defensive coordinator Rob Ryan with Monte Kiffin and switched to a 4-3 alignment.

LINE: Dallas opened as a 3-point favorite and has moved to -3.5. The total has moved from 49 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (-3.0) - Dallas (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -4.5
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Dallas.
* Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

[TheGame]

NFL Gambling Preview: Atlanta at New Orleans
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com

Atlanta at New Orleans
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: New Orleans -3 O/U 53
CRIS Current: New Orleans -3 (-120) O/U 54
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New Orleans -1.5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: New Orleans

The Atlanta Falcons had a terrific 13-3 season last year and earned the #1 seed in the NFC but lost in the NFC Championship at home to the San Francisco 49ers. I don’t envision the same amount of success for the Falcons here in 2013. Atlanta had a very weak schedule that was littered with mediocre to bad teams. This year the slate is much tougher and right off the bat they draw a tough matchup against the rejuvenated and motivated New Orleans Saints.

Atlanta’s offensive line still looks weak. They struggled to keep Matt Ryan upright against better pass rushes and also had difficulties running the football at a productive level. They did acquire Stephen Jackson during the offseason but he is aging and has battled injuries and I doubt he’ll have a significant impact. What the Falcons do have is a terrific receiving corps with Roddy White, Julio Jones, and future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez who has returned for another season. Defensively, the secondary is completely rebuilt after losing a pair of awesome cornerbacks in Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson and the defensive line is very much a question mark because way too often they afforded opposing quarterbacks too much time in the pocket to fire away downfield. Overall this is still a solid football team but there are seemingly was more issues than last year which again suggests getting to double-digit wins will be difficult.

Sean Payton is back on the sidelines for his first regular season game since the end of the 2011 season. Drew Brees and many of the players have openly talked about how respected and loved Payton is and no doubt they will be looking to come out strong with a great performance here. New Orleans’ first team offense looked sharp throughout the preseason with Brees completing 25-of-34 passes for a solid 74% completion rate and a 2-0 TD-INT ratio. Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and speedster Darren Sproles headline a good stable of running backs and there is plenty of talent at wide receiver with Marques Colston, Lance Moore and the preseason emergence of youngsters Kenny Stills, Nick Toon – don’t forget stud tight end Jimmy Graham. The defense does suffer a blow with the season ending injuries to Will Smith and Kenyon Coleman but the secondary (which is key against a team like Atlanta) should be improved with Jabari Greer and Keenan Lewis at corner along with a deeper corps of safeties. Obviously the Saints struggled mightily against the pass last season but on paper look stronger heading into 2012.

New Orleans is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games and despite last year’s disappointment managed to beat the Falcons in the Superdome 31-27. I expect a similar result on Sunday and will throw my support towards the home side.

[TheGame]

NFL Gambling Preview: Green Bay at San Francisco
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com

Green Bay at San Francisco
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: San Francisco -5.5 O/U 48
CRIS Current: San Francisco -4.5 O/U 48
Rob Veno's Power Rating: San Francisco -5.5
Rob Veno's Recommendation: San Francisco

A bit of redemption is at stake here in week one as the Packers look to atone for the 45-31 NFC Divisional Round playoff loss right here eight months ago. In that game the Green Bay defense was shredded for 579 total yards, 323 of which came from the 49ers rushing attack. Certainly Green Bay is healthier this time around and they’ve had the entire off-season to dissect film of that contest which should result in some improvement. Another factor that should help Green Bay even further is the loss of San Francisco’s top wideout Michael Crabtree. Crabtree tore the Pack up in the January playoff rout catching nine passes for 119 yards and a pair of touchdowns. While Green Bay may be able to improve on last year’s defensive effort, there is a question as to whether they can do that with their offensive shortcomings. The severe knee injury suffered by Bryan Bulaga during training camp forces Green Bay to start rookie David Bakhtiari (Colorado) at left tackle and in charge of protecting Aaron Rodgers’ blind side. That could be a significant problem considering San Francisco’s ability to apply pressure and the Packers inability to protect Rodgers last season (sacked 51 times). Green Bay also lacks a proven ground game and with a rookie left tackle against the NFL’s #4 ranked rush defense a year ago. Green Bay did add rookie running backs Eddie Lacy (Alabama) and Jonathan Franklin (UCLA) in the draft but asking them to help significantly in this game could be a stretch.

On offense, San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick figures to again put immense pressure on the Packers defense. With Kaepernick and the punishing ground game requiring so much attention, the passing game can still be effective enough despite Crabtree’s absence. Tight end Vernon Davis is a mismatch which can be exploited and new wide receiver Anquan Boldin has already developed a strong rapport with Kaepernick. His chain moving prowess on third down makes him an excellent fit in this system. San Fran’s versatile and powerful offensive line should be able to open running lanes and protect Kaepernick.

There’s not much to lean toward in this matchup from a situational standpoint but there are some technical trends that point toward the total going over. As much attention as the 49ers defense gets, San Francisco has gone 6-0 O/U in their last six home games, 10-1 O/U in their last 11 overall and the last five times these teams have met, the over is a perfect 5-0.

The current line and total sit at San Francisco -4.5 and 48/48.5 which appear to be very tight numbers. Note that as strong as the previously mentioned over trends have been, this total is establishing a new baseline for San Francisco. The total looks to be predicated on approximately 50% opponent and 50% San Fran’s season-ending scoring splurge. In a game where it does not look like the posted numbers can really be taken advantage of, I’ll lean to the home team 49ers who own the better offensive balance, defense, and home field edge.

[TheGame]

Injury News


The Panthers have ruled out RB Kenjon Barner (ankle) for Week 1.

Texans ILB Darryl Sharpton (concussion) did not participate in Saturday's practice and has been ruled out for Week 1.

Darrelle Revis (knee) has been cleared to start Sunday against the Jets.

[TheGame]

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Blaine Gabbert (thumb) is expected to start Sunday's opener against the Chiefs.

[TheGame]

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Santonio Holmes (foot) is expected to play Sunday against the Bucs.

[TheGame]

Profootballtalk reports Giants RE Jason Pierre-Paul (back) is "truly a game-time decision" for Sunday night's tilt against the Cowboys.
PFT's Mike Florio adds that Pierre-Paul is "very questionable," while a source informs Florio that JPP is "currently on the borderline to play." Pierre-Paul is about 12 weeks removed from back surgery. He'll go through pre-game warm-ups, and a decision will then be made. Pierre-Paul will be limited if he plays.