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**Thomas** · 01-28-2021, 03:57 PM

Re: Some SB stuff from around the web

From Chicago Tribune

One game left: The Super Bowl.

Tom Brady. Patrick Mahomes.

Inevitable.

The football gods have been merciful.

Although I’m not a trends bettor, I find that using our Action Labs database helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.

Let’s take a look at some trends for the early spreads and totals for Packers-Buccaneers and Chiefs-Bills.

All lines are from our NFL Odds page.

Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers

Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 7 | TV: CBS

When the Chiefs and Buccaneers played in Week 12 at Raymond James Stadium, the Chiefs won by only three points, but they very much controlled the game.

In the first quarter, they sprinted to a 17-0 lead. At the start of the fourth quarter, they were ahead 27-10. Mahomes was a delicious 462-3-0 passing for the Chiefs while Brady was a good-but-not-great 345-3-2 passing.

In a vacuum, I think the Chiefs are more than three points better the Bucs, and I’m not dissuaded by the fact that the Bucs are playing this game in Tampa Bay.

Home-field advantage doesn’t mean as much this year as it usually does, and the fans at the Super Bowl tend not to be the diehards.

Plus, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has been dominant on the road, where he is an A-graded 40-22-1 ATS (26.8% ROI).

Similarly, Mahomes is 15-8-1 ATS (28% ROI) on the road.

Finally, as good as Brady has been throughout his career, bettors who have gone against him in the Conference Championships and Super Bowls since 2003 (as far back as our database goes) are 12-9 ATS (10.9% ROI).

This line has opened at -3.5, and I think it will move toward the Bucs from there, so I’m putting some action on the Chiefs now in case I’m wrong, but I’m also planning to bet more on them later if the line hits -3.

**dollars** · 01-29-2021, 11:58 PM

Re: Some SB stuff from around the web

Thanks Thomas.

What's the % of teams that win the coin toss, wins the game?

**Thomas** · 01-31-2021, 08:25 PM

Re: Some SB stuff from around the web

I read that 52.6% winners of coin toss winners win the game, not sure if that's all games or overtimes or what Perry but as it should be for such an irrelevant stat it's break evenish with -110 vig

here's an actual list from docsports of all the superbowl games coin toss and results, knock yourself out brother

https://www.docsports.com/super-bowl...tatistics.html

**Thomas** · 01-31-2021, 08:32 PM

Re: Some SB stuff from around the web

Trends to consider when betting Buccaneers in Super Bowl

By Dave Tuley, VSiN

January 30, 2021 | 10:00am
Want even more betting news? Sign up for VSiN’s free daily newsletter. Listen Live to VSiN’s sports betting shows.

Let’s break down the Buccaneers’ season from a gambling perspective, including their future odds, season win total and game-by-game breakdown.
Futures

When the Westgate SuperBook posted the first Super Bowl LV future-book odds on Jan. 13, 2020, the Buccaneers were listed at 30/1 to win the NFC and a whopping 60/1 for the Super Bowl in a group that included the Denver Broncos and Jets. Yes, seriously. During the early part of the offseason, most books were offering them around 50/1, but then rumors started circulating about Tom Brady. When it was clear Brady was signing with them on March 17, the odds were lowered to 13/2 win the NFC and 14/1 to win the Super Bowl. By the time the regular season started, the Bucs were still about 6/1 to win the NFC and 14/1 to win the Super Bowl. With the early wagers at big odds and continued backing from Brady fans, the Buccaneers were the worst-case scenario for many sportsbooks’ future books.
Season win total

Bucs Over/Under 10 was the most debated win total in the NFL. For every expert or bettor you’d hear say that Brady (and Rob Gronkowski and Leonard Fournette) made Tampa Bay an instant contender that would fly Over 10 wins, someone else was saying it was too high and the Bucs would be a .500 team again. They were just 7-5 heading into their bye in Week 13. That meant they would have to run the table to go Over 10 and 3-1 to push on 10. But the Bucs closed strong by beating the Vikings, Falcons, Lions and Falcons again to finish 11-5 and win for the Over bettors.
Regular Season

Record: 11-5 (second place in NFC South, No. 5 seed in NFC playoffs); ATS record: 9-7 against the spread, net profit of 1.3 units; Over/Under: 9-7 to the Over, profit of 1.3 units with Overs.

The Buccaneers were a hit-or-miss team to bet on through the first 12 weeks before their late bye in Week 13 as they were 6-6 ATS and didn’t have a streak of more than two covers or non-covers. After losing in Week 12 to the Chiefs to fall to 7-5 straight up (though 6-6 ATS after covering as 3.5-point home underdogs), they went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS down the stretch to make a small profit for backers. The Bucs started 2-0 with Overs and continued to mostly trend that way, though they were never more than two games over .500.
see also

Trends to consider when betting the Chiefs in Super Bowl 2021
Postseason

Record: 3-0 (NFC champions, all three wins on the road); ATS record: 2-1, ATS, profit of 0.9 units; Over/Under: 2-1 to the Over, profit of 0.9 units on the Over.

The Bucs were 10-point favorites at 7-9 Washington. They won, 31-23, but didn’t cover. They then avenged two regular-season losses to the Saints by beating them 30-20 as 2.5-point road underdogs. They followed that up with a 31-26 win over the Packers in the NFC Championship as 3-point road underdogs. The Bucs-Saints game stayed Under, while the other two went Over.
Splits and trends

SU record as an underdog: 3-2 (including playoffs); ATS record: 4-1 ATS, profit of 2.9 units; Over/Under (as ’dog): 2-3, profit of 0.8 units on Unders.

Brady and the Bucs were rarely underdogs during the regular season but lost the opener 34-23 to the Saints as 4-point underdogs. Nevertheless, that was the Bucs only ATS loss, as they routed the Packers 38-10 in Week 6 as 2.5-point home underdogs and covered as 3.5-point home ’dogs in their 27-24 loss to the Chiefs in Week 12. Then, of course, they beat the Saints and Packers as road ’dogs in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay At Home

Home record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS for profit of 1.7 units; Over/Under (home games): 4-4, loss of 0.1 units either way.

The Buccaneers are the first team to play the Super Bowl in its own stadium. They were 5-3 SU and ATS at Raymond James Stadium in the regular season but did not have any home postseason games.

**Thomas** · 01-31-2021, 08:38 PM

Re: Some SB stuff from around the web

Trends to consider when betting the Chiefs in Super Bowl 2021

By Dave Tuley, VSiN

January 29, 2021 | 8:01am | Updated
Want even more betting news? Sign up for VSiN’s free daily newsletter. Listen Live to VSiN’s sports betting shows.

Let’s break down the Chiefs’ season from a gambling perspective, including their future-book odds, season win total and playoffs to date. On Saturday, we’ll take look at the Buccaneers.
Futures

The Chiefs opened as 7/1 favorites for Super Bowl 2021 even before they won Super Bowl LIV when the Westgate SuperBook opened its futures on Jan. 13, 2020. They were also the 7/2 faves to win the AFC. The Chiefs were lowered to 9/4 to repeat as AFC champs and 9/2 to repeat as Super Bowl champs after their title run. Unlike the Buccaneers, the Chiefs’ future-book odds remained pretty constant through the offseason, and they entered the season about 2/1 to win the AFC and 4/1 to win the Super Bowl. They were also installed as prohibitive -450 favorites to win the AFC West.
Season win total

As the defending champs and clear-cut favorites to repeat, the Chiefs were also given the highest win total of 12. That’s a huge number, and many people made a case that it would be hard to exceed their 12-4 record from last season with bull’s-eyes on their backs. However, the Chiefs started 4-0 before losing to the Raiders in Week 5 and then went Over 12 when they improved to 13-1 with their 33-27 Week 14 win at Miami.
Regular season

Record: 14-2 (AFC West winner, No. 1 record in AFC, No. 1 in NFL); ATS record: 6-9-1 ATS, net loss of 4 units; Over/Under: 8-8

The Chiefs consistently rewarded backers during the first half of the season despite usually laying a lot of points. They started 6-2 ATS, with their only non-covers being a 23-20 OT win at the Chargers in Week 2 and their Week 5 loss to the Raiders. But then they burned backers’ money the rest of the regular season as they went 0-7-1 ATS despite winning all but their Week 17 game. (Some people had the Chiefs -2.5 in their 32-29 win at New Orleans in Week 15 and thus have the Chiefs covering and going 1-6-1 ATS down the stretch and 7-9 ATS on the season.)

Super Bowl 2021 betting Chiefs
Consider Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ road performance when betting on Super Bowl 2021 as the Buccaneers will play at home.

Postseason

Record: 2-0 (AFC champions); ATS record: 1-1 ATS, loss of 0.1 unit; Over/Under: 1-1, loss of 0.1 unit either way

The Chiefs earned the AFC’s lone first-round bye, so they opened their postseason run with a 22-17 win over the Browns but didn’t cover after closing as 8-point home favorites. In the AFC Championship game, they were 3-point favorites over the Bills after Mahomes was cleared from concussion protocol, and they won and covered 38-24. Their first game stayed Under, and the second game flew Over.
Splits and trends

SU record as favorites: 15-1 (including playoffs); ATS record: 6-9-1, net loss of 3.9 units; Over/Under as favorites: 8-8

The Chiefs were underdogs only twice all season — Week 3 at Baltimore and Week 17 at the Chargers while resting starters. Their only loss as chalk was the 40-32 loss to the Raiders in Week 5, but they have a losing record ATS. It should be noted that the 3-point spread in the AFC Championship game was the lowest spread they were asked to cover except for the push in the Week 15 win at New Orleans.
Away from home

Away record: 8-0 SU, 3-4-1 ATS; Over/Under (road games): 4-4

Tampa Bay is the first team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium, so some consideration should be given to the Chiefs’ performance on the road.

**Thomas** · 01-31-2021, 08:44 PM

Re: Some SB stuff from around the web

TAMPA, Fla. (COVERS) — Every year, the Big Game attracts billions of betting bucks—and not all of those dollars are wagered sensibly. There have been plenty of trends mentioned ahead of this year’s NFL championship game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs, and we’re here to present six that you can not only safely ignore, but openly and gleefully mock those who don’t.

Here, without further ado, are the WORST Super Bowl trends making the rounds in 2021:
White Unis, Baby!

If you haven’t heard this little nugget yet, you’re lucky. And if you have, we can only hope you didn’t give it a second thought. Teams wearing white uniforms have won 13 of the previous 16 Super Bowls—and that has made some Tampa Bay fans excited, as the Buccaneers will wear whites in the Big Game.

There’s absolutely no rhyme or reason for this trend, but that won’t stop some people from putting money on it—and saying “Told ya!” if the Bucs do go on to win.
Heads Will Roll

Ah, the coin flip. Countless millions of dollars are spent on this activity every Super Bowl, with the odds the same as they ever were: -105 for heads and -105 for tails. There is literally no coin flip-related trend worth pursuing and yet, you’ll see people make their coin-flip wager on the basis of Heads having rode a bit of a hot streak, coming through in nine of the previous 15 Super Bowls. But whether you’re a “ride the streak!” bettor, or a “tails are due” wagerer, the simple fact remains (and it’s backed by basic finite math): the result of the Super Bowl coin flip is exactly that—a coin flip. Don’t overthink this one.
Fab In February

On the flip side, what is it about NFC teams refusing to stay competitive once the calendar flips to Feb. 1? Or perhaps this has more to do with the fact that long-time AFC-based assassin Tom Brady victimized the conference at every opportunity (before deciding to flip sides prior to this season). Whatever the case, the AFC has been a far superior play in Super Bowls played in the month of February, having gone 12-6 SU. That includes the Chiefs’ 31-20 win over San Francisco at last year’s Super Bowl in Miami. So do you roll with Brady (who is 6-3 in February), or with the overall AFC trend? Good luck with that!
NFC + TB = ATS W

This might look like just a bunch of letters, but there’s a message here, people! And it’s this: The NFC team has been very kind to bettors in recent Super Bowl games in Tampa, having covered in each of the previous three games played there.

The Arizona Cardinals pulled it off in the most recent occurrence, dropping a 27-23 decision to the Pittsburgh Steelers at Super Bowl XLIII in 2009. So to recap: you have Tom Brady, playing in his home stadium, at a time when the NFC has dominated ATS in Tampa. And you know that people will continue to trumpet this irrelevant trend if the Buccaneers prevail.
3 (Or 4) Is The Real Magic Number

Certain Super Bowl prop bets tend to bring a little more of a celebratory response when they hit—and the exact margin of victory (or even a win in a winning margin band) is near the top of that list.

So don’t be surprised to see some enterprising bettors take a shot on one of the most critical magic numbers in football: 3. That’s where the current betting line sits, and it’s tied (with 4) for the most common margin of victory in Super Bowl history (with each happening six times).

Still, it has happened just six times over the first 54 editions of the Super Bowl—and in fact, there have been more games decided by double digits (33) than by nine or fewer points (21).
W-L Records Are For Losers

Imagine being the superior regular-season team, then losing in the Super Bowl to the team with the worse record. It happens a lot more than you might think.

A lot more, in fact.

Over the past 15 Super Bowl matchups, the team with the better regular-season mark has won twice: Super Bowl XLIII, when the 10-6 Pittsburgh Steelers held off the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals (a game we referenced earlier), and Super Bowl LI, when the 14-2 New England Patriots defeated the 11-5 Atlanta Falcons (also known as “28-3!”)

So fade those Chiefs, right? You might decide to do so, but please don’t let this trend be the reason.

**Thomas** · 01-31-2021, 08:50 PM

Re: Some SB stuff from around the web

Super Bowl LV is set, with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs ready to battle Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa, Florida, on Feb. 7. Here are some betting nuggets to get you prepared for the big game.

Super Bowl betting trends to know

Favorites have covered two straight Super Bowls and three of the last four. Overall, favorites are 27-25-2.

The last two Super Bowls went under the total. There have been 10 overs and 10 unders in the last 20 Super Bowls, and it's 26-26-1 overall (no total for Super Bowl I).

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AFC teams have won and covered five of the last six Super Bowls.

The favored team is 35-19 straight up in the 54 Super Bowls.

A total of 57 would be the second-highest closing Super Bowl total ever. Super Bowl LVI closed at 58 and went over in OT.

The Chiefs enter 8-10 ATS on the season, the fifth team to advance to the Super Bowl with a losing ATS record (only the 2012 Ravens went on to win).

Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS and 6-3 outright in his career in the Super Bowl. He has been an underdog once, in his first Super Bowl vs. the Rams. (Only two quarterbacks have won multiple Super Bowls as an underdog: Eli Manning and Jim Plunkett, with two each).

Only two quarterbacks have won multiple Super Bowls as an underdog: Eli Manning and Jim Plunkett (two each).

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This will be the first time Brady is an underdog in three straight starts since 2002-03 and the first time in a single season since 2001. It will snap Brady's 308-game streak without being an underdog in three consecutive starts. The next longest streak in the Super Bowl era is 201 by Aaron Rodgers (active streak).

This will be the eighth straight playoff game Mahomes is favored in. That will break a tie with Kurt Warner for the most consecutive playoff games favored in to begin a career in the Super Bowl era.

Mahomes is 27-13-1 ATS when he is not a double-digit favorite (6-0-1 ATS as underdog, 21-13 ATS as single-digit favorite).

Breakdown by position of first TD:

WR 22
RB 21
TE 5
QB 3
CB 2
Defense 1

Breakdown by score of first TD:

TD 26
FG 25
Safety 3

Coin toss: Heads 25, tails 29

Tampa Bay closed as a 4-point underdog in its only other Super Bowl appearance (2002). It won outright. If the Bucs close as an underdog, they will look to join the Giants (3), Raiders (2), Broncos (2) and Washington (2) as the only teams to win multiple Super Bowls as an underdog.

Mahomes has the fourth-highest cover percentage (61.5%) of any QB in the Super Bowl era; Brady (59.5%) is eighth.

Brady is 41-17-1 ATS in his career as an underdog and 36-23 outright as an underdog, both best in the Super Bowl era

Since 2015, the under is 22-9 in Brady starts with a total in the 50s (16-6 since 2017).

The Chiefs are the fifth team to reach Super Bowl with a losing ATS record (8-10). Only the 2012 Ravens went on to win it all.

Andy Reid is 5-5 ATS with Kansas City with at least 13 days between games. He was 13-4 ATS with Philadelphia in that situation.

Since 2018, Brady has covered all five games with at least 13 days between games, including the Week 14 game this season.

The spread has not come into play in the last 11 Super Bowls. Winners are 46-6-2 ATS. The last team to win but not cover was Pittsburgh in 2008 over Arizona (-7, won by 4).

The Chiefs are the fifth straight preseason favorite (+400) to reach the Super Bowl. Three of the last four won the game.

Kansas City is 5-0 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3.

Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games, though it did cover in its last game.

Tampa Bay has covered the last four times it has been an underdog.

The Buccaneers have covered each of the last three meetings, including their Week 12 meeting this season. In that game, Kansas City was a 3.5-point favorite on the road. Now Kansas City is a 3-point favorite in that building, though it is technically a neutral site.

ESPN's Stats & Information group contributed to this story

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Some SB stuff from around the web

Some SB stuff from around the web

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