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Re: wildcard thoughts
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Re: wildcard thoughts
2 teams not in the playoffs last year, home favorites 2-11, ATS (Steelers), home dogs, 0-4 (Football Team).
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Re: wildcard thoughts
nice one gambrinus..backs up my bucs pick alsoOriginally posted by Gambrinus View Post_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: wildcard thoughts
Wild card weekend, teams with less than 4 wins in the previous season.
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( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: wildcard thoughts
ON late season home off a div playing team off 3+ point loss but haven't lost 4 straight (34-10 = on NO)
ON playoff team with less wins in L8 than opponent and not neither team off big loss (70-20 = on LAR, INDY, PIT)
ON playoff better YPPA team in closely lined game (48-11 = on LAR, on BAL)
VS playoff team that won >7 games last year which was fewer than opponent, not dog 6.5+ (6-35 = on PIT)
ON playoff team that lost to NDIV opponent by 3+ after 3+ weeks of this season (34-8 = on BAL)
VS home grass nondiv that doesn't have 2+ more wins than opponent and are gaining >55% of first downs passing (3-22 = on BAL)
VS playoff team that were +/- >=10 after 1Q last game and opponent did not lead by 10+ last game (10-41 = on BUF, on TEN)
VS team not a dog of 6.5+ that was not favored by 4+ in a division game last week and opponent was favored (5-26 = on CLE, IND, SEA)
VS bad running playoff team off a division dog game (1-19 = on CLE)
VS home nondiv won 3-5 of L6 games, opponent went over in at least 5 of L10 (0-10 = on CHI)
UNDER wildcard round game lined +/-5 with a defense allowing at least 4.5 ppg more than opponent (1-14 ou = BAL/TEN u)
OVER away dog <5.5 with total <47.5 and not off a 6+ point win (19-5 ou = CLE/PIT o)
ON and UNDER away fav or tiny dog with <46.5 total off a 6+ point win (17-4 ATS / 3-18 ou = on TB and UNDER)
UNDER 1st playoff round home team that didn't win all home games, playing nondiv and both teams won at least 3 of L6 games (3-26 ou = BUF/IND u, NO/CHI u, TEN/BAL u)
UNDER wildcard round team that avg <32ppg vs opp that scored at least 64 points in L3 games (9-39 ou = BUF/IND u, TB/WAS u, NO/CHI u, TEN/BAL u)
note: only 5 previous occurrences of teams playing in playoffs that just met in regular season (cle/pit) but home team is 4-1 SUATS with 4-1 ou in those 5
note: 7x a team met in 1st round of playoffs for 3rd time after winning 1st and losing 2nd meeting. Those teams are 6-1 ATS in playoffs (PIT and LAR)Last edited by rolltide; 01-09-2021, 12:36 PM.Comment
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Re: wildcard thoughts
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Re: wildcard thoughts
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Re: wildcard thoughts
week = 18 and p:HL and po:P2 >9 and p:margin <-3 and p:O
wildcard..
previous home loss..
previous opp >9 pts scored 2nd quarter..
previous lost >3..
previous over
0-6 (-18.42) all double digits
fade chi
along with system post 11 on saints.. also go with post 1 under system.. that was active on buf yesterday which landed right around the number.. don't normally like to have a side and total same game but like numbers on both.. maybe knock 25% off each bet
not gonna play early game but looking at late one
no -10.5
under 48
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++Last edited by bleeker; 01-10-2021, 08:42 AM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: wildcard thoughts
Originally posted by bleeker View Post
also should say I need big avg margin on this as it's a small sample and makes little sense.. if saints cover it may have nothing to do with this lol.. I'll forgo making sense for big margins which many won't.. i respect that view_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: wildcard thoughts
Wild Card week when divisional opponents split the 2 regular season games.
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Re: wildcard thoughts
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Re: wildcard thoughts
week = 18 and A and p:line < -5 and total > 34 and surface = grass and p:ou margin <14 and season>1994
wildcard..
away..
grass..
previous favorite >5..
total >34 (reasonable)..
previous not over >13.5
1995
10-0 (9.65)
has bal this game
cle +5.5
https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++Last edited by bleeker; 01-10-2021, 02:41 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Re: wildcard thoughts
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