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  • #1

    sunday thoughts

    non-commital




    week 17..
    1 loss..
    favorite <11..
    total <47
    off a win (somebody undefeated till week 16)


    3-0 o/u (25.00)

    margins higher over the years

    kc over 44.5


    https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: sunday thoughts

    That might need some thought bleeker with kc resting and LA out of things for awhile now. It might be a gentlemen's game where they play just to stay unhurt. I'm thinking a lot of running and punting and clock killing, just an opinion though as that is what I would do.

    Just browsing some stuff bleeker and 1 loss teams in week 17 are

    week = 17 and losses = 1

    SU: 4-2-0 (3.67, 66.7%)
    ATS: 4-2-0 (3.92, 66.7%)
    O/U: 5-1-0 (12.17, 83.3%) avg total: 39.8

    Hmmm you might be on to something and I may be wrong, not that unusual bleeker, lol

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: sunday thoughts

      Originally posted by Thomas View Post
      That might need some thought bleeker with kc resting and LA out of things for awhile now. It might be a gentlemen's game where they play just to stay unhurt. I'm thinking a lot of running and punting and clock killing, just an opinion though as that is what I would do.

      Just browsing some stuff bleeker and 1 loss teams in week 17 are

      week = 17 and losses = 1

      SU: 4-2-0 (3.67, 66.7%)
      ATS: 4-2-0 (3.92, 66.7%)
      O/U: 5-1-0 (12.17, 83.3%) avg total: 39.8

      Hmmm you might be on to something and I may be wrong, not that unusual bleeker, lol
      guessing that would have been true in the previous games also..maybe with the week off they don't want to go into a shell to stay sharp and focused..also thought a little interesting that the two bigger margins
      were when these teams were dogs..the gb/det line and total were very similar to this weeks game..I kind of like how it comes together but certainly understand your point of view thomas
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: sunday thoughts

        week =17 and H and line >9 and o:site streak >0


        week 17..
        home dogs >9..
        opp was home for there last 1+ games


        5-0 (11.70)

        smallest margin is 8..avg
        total same as this game


        cin +13 (not final..final boldface separate post)


        https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
        Last edited by bleeker; 12-29-2020, 09:44 PM.
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: sunday thoughts

          Originally posted by bleeker View Post
          week =17 and H and line >9 and o:site streak >0


          week 17..
          home dogs >9..
          opp was home for there last 1+ games


          5-0 (11.70)

          smallest margin is 8..avg
          total same as this game


          cin +13 (not final..final boldface separate post)


          https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



          all this means is opponent was home their previous game (op:H is a better way to state it)


          and worth mentioning there are over twice as many games if opp was away their previous game and it's only a 6-5 proposition

          https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
          Last edited by bleeker; 12-30-2020, 05:01 AM.
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: sunday thoughts

            tS(H@season) = 7 and H and surface = artificial and streak > 4 and 10 <= wins <= 13 and line < 4 and total < 51 and o:streak > -3


            last home game of the season..
            artificial surface..
            10-13 wins..
            >4 game win streak..
            dog <4 or favorite..
            total <51
            opp not on a 3+ game losing streak


            14-0 (14.50)


            buf -3 (not committing)


            https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: sunday thoughts

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: sunday thoughts

                Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                tS(H@season) = 7 and H and surface = artificial and streak > 4 and 10 <= wins <= 13 and line < 4 and total < 51 and o:streak > -3


                last home game of the season..
                artificial surface..
                10-13 wins..
                >4 game win streak..
                dog <4 or favorite..
                total <51
                opp not on a 3+ game losing streak


                14-0 (14.50)


                buf -3 (not committing)


                https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                they have a couple of first round playoff games in this sample which I'm guessing is because of home games played on neutral fields.. here's without those 2 games


                https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: sunday thoughts

                  I'm going with all 3 and I do understand the knocks on (kc over and buf)


                  kc over 44
                  buf -3
                  cin +13
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: sunday thoughts

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: sunday thoughts

                      week = 17 and AF and tS(points,N=2) < 35 and site streak = 2 and season >1995


                      week 17.
                      away favorite..
                      <35 points combined last two games ..
                      home last 2 games (away before that)..
                      1995


                      5-0 o/u (16.30)

                      smallest over 9.5



                      was over 43


                      because it's an aged sample has to be a big avg margin for me


                      https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

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