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  • #1

    saturday thoughts

    non-committal ..will post final play(s) in here


    day after christmas..
    saturday..
    home..
    opponent not on a >6 win streak..


    0-4 (-13.50)

    all double digits

    sole eliminator a real outlier..

    wouldn't do det/tam (fade det) because of high total..

    considering other two

    like the big loss (system win) off a 17 year hiatus


    https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
    Last edited by bleeker; 12-24-2020, 11:54 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: saturday thoughts

    14<=week<=17 and streak=-2 and HD and NDIV and po:streak >0 and total >42 and season >1999

    week 14-17..
    2 game losing streak..
    home dog..
    non division..
    po:won it's prior game..
    total >42..
    2000

    12-0 o/u (15.17) huge

    the "previous opp won it's previous game" a little tough to swallow other than they were playing a team coming in on a positive note..draw your own conclusions..the det total out of the range but the 2nd highest total was a huge over so considering it


    lv and det qualify as over plays..not final for me yet




    https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
    Last edited by bleeker; 12-25-2020, 11:18 PM.
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: saturday thoughts

      Originally posted by bleeker View Post
      14<=week<=17 and streak=-2 and HD and NDIV and po:streak >0 and total >42 and season >1999

      week 14-17..
      2 game losing streak..
      home dog..
      non division..
      po:won it's prior game..
      total >42..
      2000

      12-0 o/u (15.17) huge

      the "previous opp won it's previous game" a little tough to swallow other than they were playing a team coming in on a positive note..draw your own conclusions..the det total out of the range but the 2nd highest total was a huge over so considering it


      lv and det qualify as over plays..not final for me yet




      https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
      even more important and careless of me.. drop this back a week (13-17)


      16-0 o/u (15.31)


      https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
      Last edited by bleeker; 12-25-2020, 02:28 PM.
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: saturday thoughts

        had lv down as lar..corrected above
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: saturday thoughts

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: saturday thoughts

            lv(48) and det(54)... both over
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: saturday thoughts

              Good luck, bleeker. I'll follow along for some fun action.

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: saturday thoughts

                Yeah good evidence bleeker I changed the date to >=2002, the year of the realignment which gives you a cleaner look imo and also makes your output 0-11 su and 11-0 o/u and 2-9 ats but drops your other query to 14-0, gonna be using some of your thinking in this one for sure, gl today

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: saturday thoughts

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: saturday thoughts

                    thanks guys..about to post another for the middle game..small sample,big margin but kind of busy lol..up in a few minutes
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: saturday thoughts

                      14 <= week <= 17 and day = Saturday and H and -1 >= o:streak >= -3 and site streak != -1 and line < -4 and 53 > total > 34 and o:site streak!= 2 and season > 1995


                      week 14-17..

                      saturday..

                      home..

                      1-3 game win streak..

                      can't have been away last and home 2 back **

                      opp couldn't be on a 2 game home site streak**

                      favorite >4..

                      total 34.5-52.5..

                      1996




                      5-0 o/u (17.20)


                      ari over 48.5


                      ** can understand critique for these and any feedback positive or negative is welcome
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

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