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  • #1

    saturday thoughts

    again not committing but have a hunch this will be my play..have the other game to look at also..queries for or against welcome


    day = Saturday and REG and p:TOP >1990 and po:wins >8 and total > 37 and season >1989


    saturday ..
    regular season..
    previous time of possession > 33:10..
    previous opp wins >8..
    total >37..
    1989


    0-13 o/u (-12.62)

    buf under 49.5


    https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: saturday thoughts

    Looks like a good one.

    I don't play these very often mostly because I can't figure it out half the time but I see you and some of the guys spending a lot of time on it.

    At the risk of getting my head chewed off, can we get even a pretend card from this crew so we can see how they turned out?

    Point t being is lets say we find 10 sets of 0-13 or 21 -1 or similar crushing sets, and we bet 6 of them.

    Do we go 5-1 or 6-0 or do we go 3-3 because half the trends corrected. How does that look over a course of aay 10 games.

    To me, certain trends like taxi system or short rest west fly east have proven themselves and make sense to me. On the other hand, some of these just seem like a ridiculous toggle to get a strong looking result.

    Again, in no way denigrating the work or effort, im just trying to see if there is an edge here . But I don't see anyone keeping up with it.

    Any talks port guys explain it to a dumb redneck? Just lookin to get paid yo!

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: saturday thoughts

      To me, this one makes some sense

      It basically says Buffalo is dominating the clock even against good competition and usually one does that with a good mix of run pass.

      Eat clock score demoralize means under..

      I can get my hands around that.

      The Thurs nite one not so much. That one seems like ok toggle game fav from 3 to 6, add after week so anD so, shake then stir. I dont see any fundamentals behind it is the point. Much more likely to ignore tidbits I can't see any foundation too vs my instincts on the game.

      Does that make any send to anyone?

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: saturday thoughts

        Originally posted by vern View Post
        Looks like a good one.

        I don't play these very often mostly because I can't figure it out half the time but I see you and some of the guys spending a lot of time on it.

        At the risk of getting my head chewed off, can we get even a pretend card from this crew so we can see how they turned out?

        Point t being is lets say we find 10 sets of 0-13 or 21 -1 or similar crushing sets, and we bet 6 of them.

        Do we go 5-1 or 6-0 or do we go 3-3 because half the trends corrected. How does that look over a course of aay 10 games.

        To me, certain trends like taxi system or short rest west fly east have proven themselves and make sense to me. On the other hand, some of these just seem like a ridiculous toggle to get a strong looking result.

        Again, in no way denigrating the work or effort, im just trying to see if there is an edge here . But I don't see anyone keeping up with it.

        Any talks port guys explain it to a dumb redneck? Just lookin to get paid yo!
        I believe there's an edge to these in general but I think that's basically the best you can do..meaning the mathematical question of how many games do we need to make a judgment..I don't think 50,100 games enough..I believe some calculus might get you there but that's way above my capabilities


        I respect the argument that they need to make sense to play but I'm not totally convinced that ones that don't seem to have basis in logic are worthless..that's why I toss a lot of them because the numbers (sample size,margins) aren't good enough..admittedly when you put a lot of time in and find something with good numbers it's kind of hard to just chuck it..so no question I've got time invested and a little biased towards the positive outlook..
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: saturday thoughts

          Originally posted by vern View Post
          To me, this one makes some sense

          It basically says Buffalo is dominating the clock even against good competition and usually one does that with a good mix of run pass.

          Eat clock score demoralize means under..

          I can get my hands around that.

          The Thurs nite one not so much. That one seems like ok toggle game fav from 3 to 6, add after week so anD so, shake then stir. I dont see any fundamentals behind it is the point. Much more likely to ignore tidbits I can't see any foundation too vs my instincts on the game.

          Does that make any send to anyone?
          definitely agree here but numbers are overwhelming..that's enough for me but as I said ,respect argument the other way
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: saturday thoughts

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: saturday thoughts

              SBR has 90% of bets on Buffalo and Carolina

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: saturday thoughts

                Don't know what sbr is but 90% is auto go other way for me at least 5xl. Guarantee u I win that 60+% of the time

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: saturday thoughts

                  All different kinds of capping techniques. Whatever works for you, I guess. Vern, remember kingfish in the talksport college board? Now that was some technical modeling. Never could get my head around that style but couldn't argue with his results. Although his model seemed to be a consistent application of inputs, not random. But hey, we're all trying to get fed!

                  Chazbo - 90% of bets on the Panthers against the Packers with the Packers at home?!?!? That's insane! Public Joe loves home favorites and GB is one of their faves. I'm really surprised by that.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: saturday thoughts

                    Hey Chazbo - so I just looked at SBR and I see what you're talking about. But I'm wondering how many bets make up their sample? I see a lot of games with %'s in the 90's. More than 1 game at 100% to one team. Seems like maybe a very small sample size? No idea. I looked at Wagertalk and they have 57% of the tickets and 61% of the money on GB. Not saying they are the definitive source, just a comparison. No idea if any site has a legit count on tickets and money. The Buffalo % was a lot lower now on SBR too, FYI. Only 60%. That's a fast, big move, probably because of the sample size.

                    Anyone have a good site they trust to monitor % of tickets and money? I've always looked at Wagertalk but again, no idea how representative it is of the real overall picture. Not to hijack your thread, bleeker. I'll start a new post for this.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: saturday thoughts

                      day =Saturday and A and REG and p:S3 <11 and p:L and p:margin >-13 and 12>line >-9


                      (p: = previous)


                      saturday..
                      regular season..
                      p:away..
                      p:scored <11 points through 3rd quarter..
                      p:lost <13..
                      line range 8 fav/11 dog


                      17-0 (11.50)

                      check out first 2 games of this system in 1989.. 37-0..37-0


                      car +8



                      https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                      Last edited by bleeker; 12-18-2020, 04:10 PM.
                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: saturday thoughts

                        kinda hard to go against 37-0 & on a book telling you when you call in "i hope u win that one"

                        im down for 8xl on panthes

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: saturday thoughts

                          Originally posted by vern View Post
                          kinda hard to go against 37-0 & on a book telling you when you call in "i hope u win that one"

                          im down for 8xl on panthes

                          seen lots of amazing things looking at the samples.. this is one of them.. gl
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Re: saturday thoughts

                            final plays


                            buf under 49

                            car +8
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: saturday thoughts

                              well this redneck got 8.5 so im calling it 38-0

                              Comment

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