Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

    UNDER nonconf low total L2 years (21-43 ou = NO/DEN u, NYG/CIN u)
    OVER nonconf high total L3 years (21-3 ou = HOU/DET o, NE/ARI o, LV/ATL o, KC/TB o) note: i don't think this sustains much longer
    UNDER big dog off a bye total>42 (11-27 ou = SF/LAR u, CHI/GB u)
    UNDER after allowing 31+ b2b before bye (13-31 ou = BUF/LAC u)
    OVER nondiv home b4 bye teams similar win % (110-52 ou = TB/KC o)
    OVER off MNF loss in closely lined game, opp off win (51-19 ou = TB/KC o)
    OVER both teams off terrible rush games (105-50 ou = HOU/DET o, LAR/SF o, CHI/GB o, LAC/BUF o)
    UNDER 11+ win LY off away with 2+ TO and 1+ sacks, total<53 (2-40 ou = SF/LAR u, CHI/GB u)
    UNDER bad home team off away ez div loss, opponent WP>31 (15-51 ou = ATL/LV u)
    UNDER 11+ win LY off away and now playing superior opp (14-45 ou = SF/LAR u, NE/ARI u)
    UNDER grass nondiv fav off away, opp just allowed 360+ TY (22-62 ou = KC/TB u)
    OVER b2b 3+ pass TD vs opponent allowing 1.5+ pass TD/g, high total (54-17 ou = BUF/LAC o)
    UNDER big fav off fav or small dog, just had 0-2 TO (17-63 ou = LAR/SF u, CHI/GB u)
    UNDER grass div off loss, opponent just had 2+ TO (11-48 ou = CHI/GB u)
    UNDER after allowing >18 points less than expected and total 7+ points lower than last game, not b2b turf (32-70 ou = CAR/MIN u)
    UNDER off blowout win in closely lined game, dog not on b2b home (42-105 ou = CAR/MIN u)
    OVER turf nondiv closely lined, lost as a fav with more points than 1st downs (32-6 ou = MIN/CAR o)
    OVER nondiv dog off dog with more FG than TD, opponent good time of poss (48-9 ou = JAX/CLE o, ATL/LV o)
    UNDER 2+ ats streak away vs opponent on 2+ ats losing streak (23-47 ou = NYG/CIN u)
    UNDER 5+ streak vs non-streak (58-103 ou = PIT/BAL u, KC/TB u, NO/DEN u)
    UNDER away 11+ LY off away with more rush yards than penalty yards (9-42 ou = KC/TB u)
    UNDER b2b 32+ allowed, now home nondiv (15-42 ou = BUF/LAC u)
    UNDER off blowout loss as small dog or fav and horrible 3rd down % (9-56 ou = DET/HOU u)
    OVER no pass TD in 3 games, not dog of 10+ (67-34 ou = CLE/JAX o)
    UNDER 2nd meeting of season week 10+, scored 24+ earlier game (107-193 ou = BAL/PIT u, WAS/DAL u, SF/LAR u, MIA/NYJ u, IND/TEN u)






    ON away fav 3+ off bye (54-22 = on NYG)
    ON away dog playoff team LY off good defense (106-49 = on SF, on TEN)
    VS grass dog of 6.5+ off dog game, opponent >30 rushes/g (6-33 = on CLE)
    ON NDIV dog off shutout loss, o:WP<75 (46-14 = on DET)
    ON away off nondiv away fav loss, fav or small dog (27-9 = on MIA)
    VS home off OT loss with <9 penalties (37-79 = on CHI)
    VS away with great yards per pass attempt vs bad opp (31-66 = on DET)
    VS nondiv home fav off home fav close loss vs opponent off ats win and good YTD TOM (1-30 = on CAR)
    VS home off >330PY vs opponent off <200PY (6-33 = on ARI)
    VS home dog off away dog loss and away loss before that, opponent good YPR and rushes >24x/g (4-41 = on NYG, on SEA)
    ON pacific away to east as fav or small dog (24-5 = on LV, on SEA)
    ON away dog on grass off home dog or small fav, opponent >12.72 first downs passing/g (61-14 = on CHI)
    ON DIV that didn't win a division game LY but didn't lose last meeting by >20 (47-23 = on WAS)
    VS home fav nondiv off loss but won L2 away games (4-24 = on CAR)
    ON away grass off 6+ pt loss, opponent off incredible defensive game and 2+ sacks (44-3 = on BAL)
    ON conf week 6+ team losing by avg >19.4 ppg (74-19 = on NYJ)
    ON away <.500 vs opponent <.750 off loss (162-104 = on HOU, on LAC)
    VS b2b 32+ allowed, now home nondiv (17-40 = on LAC)
    VS home dog similar amt of wins, week 10-12 (95-165 = on WAS, on SF, on CHI, on TEN)
    away dog off home dog, YTD avg <1.7 TO but good TOP, opponent heavy pass 1st downs (43-4 = on CHI)
    ON win or close loss and b2b loss before that, WP 20-54 (86-36 = on DAL, on DEN, on LAC)
    VS away turf nondiv off home dog or small fav with 3+ more penalties than season avg (7-41 = on ATL)
    VS short rest team after OT when not favored by more than 7 and opponent not off a blowout loss (0-21 = on PIT)
    VS thanksgiving home dog on turf that didn't cover by 10+ as big dogs last game and aren't on a huge losing streak (1-16 = on HOU)

  • #2
    Re: SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

    Originally posted by Thomas
    Excellent stuff as per usual rt, thanks
    Agree with you Thomas. Great post each week..
    It just makes my brain spin, that i need to figure out the query's.. :D

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

      incredible luck for Ravens getting this game move to Sunday. they now drop out of being in 0-12, 0-20, and 4-39 ATS systems

      dropping those off now all systems point to a Ravens cover. Steelers screwed now 2x this year by teams that can't keep their covid situation together

      as shown in other thread the Eagles still match in that 4-39 Thanksgiving week Thu/Mon system... so play on SEA

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

        Thanks rolltide

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

          add...


          VS team off 3 straight 14+ wins that covered, not dog of 4+ this or last game, opponent not on big win or lose streak (15-45 = on DEN)

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

              Good info
              Twitter @winningpix1
              Last Season NFL 96-71-7 +$3750

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

                Before week 14 teams that allowed 22+ more 1st half points last game than 2nd half points have continued strong defense... 53-33-1 ATS, 24-63 o/u with avg points scored of just 38

                I played under but can certainly make a case for Indy as a bet. They are 20-4 SU with 16 covers vs Tenn

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

                  trend for tonight


                  Bears and Packers have played 31x since Dec 2005 and only 7 times have they combined to score more than 7 1st quarter points with the Bears getting shutout 20x. 1H total is 7.5 and 8 of last 9 meetings ended <7.5


                  17 x1
                  14 x3
                  13 x1
                  10 x2
                  7 x14
                  6 x1
                  3 x3
                  0 x6

                  note: fanduel has this o/u 9.5 so you can protect against TD+safety or 3 FG
                  Last edited by rolltide; 11-29-2020, 05:38 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

                    Originally posted by rolltide View Post
                    trend for tonight


                    Bears and Packers have played 31x since Dec 2005 and only 7 times have they combined to score more than 7 1st quarter points with the Bears getting shutout 20x. 1H total is 7.5 and 8 of last 9 meetings ended <7.5


                    17 x1
                    14 x3
                    13 x1
                    10 x2
                    7 x14
                    6 x1
                    3 x3
                    0 x6

                    note: fanduel has this o/u 9.5 so you can protect against TD+safety or 3 FG
                    Do you use Fanduel?
                    Thinking about using them when our casino's open again.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

                      Originally posted by TheGame View Post
                      Do you use Fanduel?
                      Thinking about using them when our casino's open again.

                      try using Draft Kings, that's the stock I bought!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

                        Originally posted by TheGame View Post
                        Do you use Fanduel?
                        Thinking about using them when our casino's open again.
                        yes, they came into PA this spring and I joined a month ago. you have to be in one of those states they are allowed to have online betting

                        i bet a lot of golf and they are the PGA official bookie so their golf options are tremendous...first round leader, Top 5-10-20-30-40, player score o/u, matchups, etc

                        the only negative is their location finder app is pretty awful so more than half the time it cannot locate me when i login from a laptop so I scramble to login on either my phone or pad which works a lot better. but their desktop/laptop version is a lot easier to navigate

                        a couple big positives....
                        daily boosters, some even in-game. for example they had HT bet that they texted out for o/u Tyreek Hill 260 yards receiving. They sent another out for Bears game on an "anytime TD scorer" but i was late for both of them.
                        - if you take player props they will have lines a little different than offshores or betrivers (my local PA out)... for example, u9.5 1Q in Bears/Packers vs the u7.5 others used so i won there
                        - free bets all over the place you can opt-in for

                        big recommendation here:
                        at least in PA your first bet will be reimbursed for up to 1000 if you lose. So you can upload $1000, take one straight wager for $1000, and if it wins you have $1900ish for a -110...if it loses they refund you the $1000 within 2 days. but it is only on your first bet placed after opening the account. (definitely a cool promotion unless your first bet is "bubba watson top lefty at Masters" and he drops a 78 on Sunday to lose by 2 to Mike Weir but got my 1k back) :(
                        Last edited by rolltide; 11-30-2020, 11:14 AM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: SDQL 11/26 - 11/30

                          Comment

                          Working...
                          X