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  • #1

    week 10

    3 win teams..
    away favorites <6..
    week 7-11..
    2016


    10-0-1 (11.82)


    phi -3

    https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: week 10

    I like it, thanks

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: week 10

      Originally posted by Chazbo View Post
      I like it, thanks

      np and good to hear !!
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: week 10

        system 2


        7<= week and losses = 0 and p:AW and p:NDIV and line < 7 and surface = grass and season >2004

        week >6..
        undefeated team..
        previous away win vs non division opponent..
        not a dog >6.5 ..
        grass ..
        2004





        16-0 (14.44)


        pit -7



        https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
        Last edited by bleeker; 11-14-2020, 10:33 AM.
        _______________________________________________
        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: week 10

          Your 1st system, which is nice by the way, also points to Minnesota on Monday night in week 10 bleeker

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: week 10

            Originally posted by Thomas View Post
            Your 1st system, which is nice by the way, also points to Minnesota on Monday night in week 10 bleeker
            thanks thomas..have to think I noticed that 1st time around and decided to leave out minnesota for some reason (wouldn't be because of monday)..can't come up with a reason why now so have to consider it a play
            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: week 10

              you got me looking at it again and found what I consider to be a significant weakness..if you add losses to it a lot of the damage done was with teams with 2 or 3 losses..4 is good (philly) but the 5 (minny) and 6 loss teams the record is 1-0-1..to me I would rate this as 2 losses is no good (3 games) and half credit for 3 losses (3 games)..let's face it 3-2 a lot different than 3-4 or 3-5 lol..to me this brings it down to a small play vs an above average play


              https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


              so phi a small play and min no play
              Last edited by bleeker; 11-15-2020, 04:52 AM.
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: week 10

                packers..
                home favorite >9..
                non conference..
                previous game grass..
                total <50..
                2009


                4-0 (18.75) all double digit covers

                https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



                gb -14
                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: week 10

                  week 6-12..
                  home favorite <3
                  exactly 3 more wins than your opponent..

                  3-0 (26.17) smallest 18.5

                  maybe motivational.. they've got 3 less wins on our turf and we're not at least a field goal better.. it's never happened with a 4 win difference and make it a 2 win difference and it swings hugely the other way (phi might be a play next week fading cle).. amazingly in all 3 games the winner scored 38 points lol..

                  mia -1.5



                  ​https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: week 10

                    Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                    you got me looking at it again and found what I consider to be a significant weakness..if you add losses to it a lot of the damage done was with teams with 2 or 3 losses..4 is good (philly) but the 5 (minny) and 6 loss teams the record is 1-0-1..to me I would rate this as 2 losses is no good (3 games) and half credit for 3 losses (3 games)..let's face it 3-2 a lot different than 3-4 or 3-5 lol..to me this brings it down to a small play vs an above average play


                    https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                    so phi a small play and min no play
                    Good point bleeker

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: week 10

                      Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                      system 2


                      7<= week and losses = 0 and p:AW and p:NDIV and line < 7 and surface = grass and season >2004
                      serious differentials there

                      16-0-0 (21.12, 100.0%)
                      16-0-0 (14.44, 100.0%) avg line: -6.7 +6: 16-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 12-2-2 (85.7%) +10: 16-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 9-7-0 (56.2%)
                      10-6-0 (4.88, 62.5%) avg total: 46.1 +6: 8-8-0 (50.0%) -6: 14-2-0 (87.5%) +10: 5-11-0 (31.2%) -10: 15-1-0 (93.8%)
                      30.8 143.5 29.3 224.1 19.9 0.9 9.0 10.1 8.4 8.6 36.1
                      24.4 122.4 34.8 168.8 20.3 2.7 3.7 3.6 3.1 4.6 14.9
                      Nov 15, 2020 view Sunday 10 2020 Steelers Bengals home -7.0 45.5

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: week 10

                        Originally posted by rolltide View Post
                        serious differentials there

                        16-0-0 (21.12, 100.0%)
                        16-0-0 (14.44, 100.0%) avg line: -6.7 +6: 16-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 12-2-2 (85.7%) +10: 16-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 9-7-0 (56.2%)
                        10-6-0 (4.88, 62.5%) avg total: 46.1 +6: 8-8-0 (50.0%) -6: 14-2-0 (87.5%) +10: 5-11-0 (31.2%) -10: 15-1-0 (93.8%)
                        30.8 143.5 29.3 224.1 19.9 0.9 9.0 10.1 8.4 8.6 36.1
                        24.4 122.4 34.8 168.8 20.3 2.7 3.7 3.6 3.1 4.6 14.9
                        Nov 15, 2020 view Sunday 10 2020 Steelers Bengals home -7.0 45.5

                        yeah not squeakers..25 mph with 40 mph gusts might not be the most condusive thing for a blowout though
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: week 10

                          Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                          yeah not squeakers..25 mph with 40 mph gusts might not be the most condusive thing for a blowout though
                          looks like it will be every bit of what they're predicting

                          i went into a restaurant at 12:30 and was calm, no rain, just cloudy

                          came out at 2:30 and it's raining sideways, windy as hell, and total chaos. now severe t-storm alert until 4pm with wind advisory until 7pm so I agree it will be tough to blow cincy out today. perhaps a 24-3 type of blowout is possible.... but under looks the play

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Re: week 10

                            p:AFW and p:NDIV and opo:streak <-5 and 6> line and REG and season >2011


                            previous away fav win..

                            previous non-division..

                            opp previous opp was on a 5+ game losing streak..

                            not a dog >5.5 ..

                            regular season

                            2012


                            0-7 o/u (-11.21)

                            bal under 44
                            Last edited by bleeker; 11-15-2020, 05:52 PM.
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment

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