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NFL Plays Week 1 2020
Handicapping games is certainly more complex than in the past, some teams have fans, some don't. What effect that has on any single team is hard to say. Going to try to adjust on the fly and not get killed in the process.
$400 Detroit -3 (-105) LOSER (-315)
$400 Las Vegas -2.5 (-123) No team has a tougher road early in the season than Carolina. New head coach, new QB, and a defense that has been completely overhauled. No preseason to see what works, only practices. The Raiders have tons of excitement for the new season with a new stadium in a new city. Zero fans at the game in Carolina, so we can take this line at face value as this is a neutral site game. Early start for the west coast team, that isnt such a big deal in the 1st game though. The Raiders have the same QB and coach so that continuity is a huge advantage they have. No new playbooks, no new relationships. The only thing I hate about this is how much action the Raiders are taking. Bridgewater has a crazy good ATS record, but he will still be learning the playbook. You all know I am very contrarian, especially in the NFL. Have to go with what I see here though. $WINNER$ (+400)
$400 N.Y. Jets +7 (-125) LOSER (-500)
$400 Miami +6.5 LOSER (-440)
$300 Arizona +7 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 Cleveland +8.5 (-115) LOSER (-345)
$400 Green Bay/Minnesota under 45.5 Packers did nothing to improve the passing targets for Rodgers, they did add a great power back in the draft. They will struggle against teams that are good at stopping the run. Minnesota has been consistently good on defense under Zimmer. I think the Packers offense will be predictable with only 1 reliable target for Aaron. They may end up being a GREAT running team, but they will NOT be explosive on offense unless they are able to bully the other team's defense. I don't see that here. The Vikings lost their best passing threat and will find themselves in a similar spot as Green Bay. Stefon Diggs is gone and Thielen is the only REAL threat. They have a 1st round draft pick WR, but history says rookie wideouts rarely perform well till they master the playbook and get their QBs trust. Cousins led a very good passing offense last year, I see a big drop in their passing productivity this season. Especially early in the year till his rookie WR gets his sea legs. Green Bay has played each of their division games under the last 9 times with the highest combined points in any of those being 45. LOSER (-440)
Monday
$300 Pittsburgh/N.Y. Giants under 47.5 I have been making a killing playing Steelers road games under for a few years now. The last 4 years they are 6-25-1 O/U on the road. I have a saved system that says to play them UNDER on the road against teams that pass more than 34.65 times per game. In today's NFL half the league passes that much. They have 25 straight UNDERS against those pass happy type teams. The Giants finished 9th in the NFL in pass attempts per game with just under 38 pass att per game in 2019. They should be a similarly pass heavy team again. They have a much worse than average defense so they will be behind a lot. Most teams with bad defenses pass a lot in come from behind mode. Below is the link to that UNDER system for Pitt. $WINNER$ (+300)
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
$400 Detroit -3 (-105) LOSER (-315)
$400 Las Vegas -2.5 (-123) No team has a tougher road early in the season than Carolina. New head coach, new QB, and a defense that has been completely overhauled. No preseason to see what works, only practices. The Raiders have tons of excitement for the new season with a new stadium in a new city. Zero fans at the game in Carolina, so we can take this line at face value as this is a neutral site game. Early start for the west coast team, that isnt such a big deal in the 1st game though. The Raiders have the same QB and coach so that continuity is a huge advantage they have. No new playbooks, no new relationships. The only thing I hate about this is how much action the Raiders are taking. Bridgewater has a crazy good ATS record, but he will still be learning the playbook. You all know I am very contrarian, especially in the NFL. Have to go with what I see here though. $WINNER$ (+400)
$400 N.Y. Jets +7 (-125) LOSER (-500)
$400 Miami +6.5 LOSER (-440)
$300 Arizona +7 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 Cleveland +8.5 (-115) LOSER (-345)
$400 Green Bay/Minnesota under 45.5 Packers did nothing to improve the passing targets for Rodgers, they did add a great power back in the draft. They will struggle against teams that are good at stopping the run. Minnesota has been consistently good on defense under Zimmer. I think the Packers offense will be predictable with only 1 reliable target for Aaron. They may end up being a GREAT running team, but they will NOT be explosive on offense unless they are able to bully the other team's defense. I don't see that here. The Vikings lost their best passing threat and will find themselves in a similar spot as Green Bay. Stefon Diggs is gone and Thielen is the only REAL threat. They have a 1st round draft pick WR, but history says rookie wideouts rarely perform well till they master the playbook and get their QBs trust. Cousins led a very good passing offense last year, I see a big drop in their passing productivity this season. Especially early in the year till his rookie WR gets his sea legs. Green Bay has played each of their division games under the last 9 times with the highest combined points in any of those being 45. LOSER (-440)
Monday
$300 Pittsburgh/N.Y. Giants under 47.5 I have been making a killing playing Steelers road games under for a few years now. The last 4 years they are 6-25-1 O/U on the road. I have a saved system that says to play them UNDER on the road against teams that pass more than 34.65 times per game. In today's NFL half the league passes that much. They have 25 straight UNDERS against those pass happy type teams. The Giants finished 9th in the NFL in pass attempts per game with just under 38 pass att per game in 2019. They should be a similarly pass heavy team again. They have a much worse than average defense so they will be behind a lot. Most teams with bad defenses pass a lot in come from behind mode. Below is the link to that UNDER system for Pitt. $WINNER$ (+300)
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
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