week 17 queries

[rolltide]

fav or small dog, late season off home dog win

0-12 ATS losing by avg 10ppg

- play on NYG (oppose Philly)

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[Thomas]

Re: week 17 queries

Nice one RT, on the GB game I'm a little concerned about GB's motivation here although that line. 12.5, leaves a lot of wiggle room for a win and non cover. Here's GB's scenario from my other thread here: Wondering what you think about this

2) Green Bay Packers (12-3): Mike Pettine and the Packers defense humiliated Kirk Cousins and friends on Monday night. The convincing win gave the Packers a 5-0 record in the NFC North and a division title. It should also lead to the Packers earning a week off.

The Packers only have to beat David Blough and the Blough Hards in Detroit next week to clinch a bye and a home game in the Divisional Round. A 49ers loss would allow the Packers a chance to move up to the No. 1 seed. (An unlikely loss by the Saints would also clinch a bye without even beating the Lions.) It's hard to overstate how crucial Monday night's performance was. If you didn't take the Packers seriously as a Super Bowl contender until now, it's going to be increasingly hard to ignore them when they are hosting a game in the league's quarterfinals.

Ibelieve the Packers want this game, the question is will they win by 13 in a div game. We have to consider here that GB has won all 5 of their div games this year and went 4-1 ats, their only non cover these very Detroit Lions who they beat by 1. Also I seen this at youtube sdql university thingy this morning:

team=Packers and F and p:AW and pP:W and pP:season=season

12-0 suats which is nice but I'm not a big fan of team specific trends that span 30 years, I just don't see the relevancy for some reason. Also I don't understand the pP:W and pP:season which they say is same season revenge for the losing team, why not just P:W and P:season=season which doesn't give the same results

HNY buddy

[Thomas]

Re: week 17 queries

Got off track there rolltide, lol, I wandered off on GB and motivation when I was actually going to talk about Philly's motivation so back to that:

4) Philadelphia Eagles (8-7): Who can blame Eagles fans for starting to dream? Carson Wentz is playing his best to end the season, as the Eagles coaching staff has helped to figure out what works on a short-handed offense. If nothing else, it has to feel good to know they are tougher than the Cowboys after the Eagles' 17-9 win Sunday.

The NFC East champion will be the No. 4 seed, hosting the Seahawks or 49ers. The Eagles will earn the spot with a win Sunday on the road against the Giants. A Cowboys home loss to the Redskins -- anything seems possible now -- would also clinch the division for Philadelphia

So same thing here as well big game and Philly is gonna be focused for sure with a win and in scenario and a decent line against a team that has long been done

[rolltide]

Re: week 17 queries

a couple things you need to look at though

1) every team that this fits in those 12 situation had at least 8 wins (pertains to >50% winning teams) so they were all likely motivated for either a playoff spot or seeding. this isn't special to philly 2019 https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
2) it's late in the season and they were just a home dog. so, probably not that great of a team even if they have 8+ wins

the spirit here is this is a vastly overrated team giving away too many points because they just won as a home dog and because it's the end of the season and still in playoff race the value is on the dog

[rolltide]

Re: week 17 queries

some more:

PLAY ON huge favs in final 2 weeks of season if not won 14 games and are at least 3 games better than opponent (48-21 = on NE, NO, GB)

ON week 17 div with 1 less win than opponent who has not won 9+ (30-2 = on DEN, on ATL)

ON week 17 in final game play on team with 1-3 less wins than opponent who has 5-11 wins (115-45 = play on DEN, ATL, JAX, ARI, TEN, CHI)

ON Week 17 div dog or small fav within 20%WP of opponent (71-30 = on DEN, ATL, JAX, ARI, SEA, TEN)

VS Week 17 dog or small fav off loss, similar records (14-43 = play on ARI, ATL)