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NFL Betting. Week 11

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  • NFL Betting. Week 11

    AFC News and Notes from Week 10
    By Teddy Covers
    Sportsmemo.com

    Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC thoughts and opinions from Week 10.

    Cincinnati Bengals - Five key starters are missing from this defense. Geno Atkins, Robert Geathers, Taylor Mays and Leon Hall are all on injured reserve. Rey Maualuga was out today, as was fellow LB Michael Boley. That's one heck of a lot of talent to be missing! So for this stop unit to shut down the Ravens for the better part of the last three quarters speaks volumes about their depth and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s schemes.

    All the questions about Andy Dalton's ability to guide this team to postseason success continue to linger. Dalton won the AFC Offensive Player of the Month award in October, but here in November he could win the 'biggest downgrade of any QB this month' award. Dalton was awful last Thursday against the Dolphins and he was even worse today.

    Dalton held the ball too long, taking sacks instead of making quick decisions. His accuracy was way off all afternoon, completing less than half his passes. And he threw three interceptions for the second week in a row. On a day where Cincinnati was able to run the football effectively, some of Dalton’s struggles may have been gusty wind related, but it was the type of performance that could get a QB benched.

    If the Bengals are the favorites to win the AFC North (which they are, leading by a game and a half), I want some money on longshot Cleveland to win the division.

    Indianapolis Colts - Every team gets a mulligan or two throughout the course of a 16 game season. After facing Seattle, San Diego on Monday Night Football, Denver with Peyton Manning's return to Indy, a huge Sunday Night TV game against division rival Houston with another divisional game on tap for Thursday Night, yes, this was a real flat spot for the Colts. And it showed, from the opening possession, by far Indy’s worst game of the year.

    Indy's defense is not loaded with playmakers, but they've still got one real difference maker after all these years -- DE Robert Mathis, who blew up the Rams first drive with yet another tackle-for-loss and had a pair of sacks. Mathis certainly isn't living on past reputation; every bit as effective now as he was five years ago. Unfortunately for the Colts, he’s probably the only impact player on this defense.

    The Colts spent a fortune in draft picks to acquire Trent Richardson from the Browns. Richardson is no better in Indy than he was in Cleveland -- no explosiveness, few broken tackles and a miserable yards-per-carry average. They completely gave up on the run by midway through the second quarter, and Andrew Luck finished the game with 17 of Indy’s 18 rushing yards. The injury loss of Reggie Wayne as Luck’s favorite weapon probably was a factor as well – there’s no need for double coverage against any healthy receiver on the roster.

    Complete disaster on special teams here. The Colts allowed a punt return touchdown, and their own return game was nothing short of awful. Three of their first six drives started inside their own ten yard line after poor decisions to run deep kickoffs out of the end zone.

    Jacksonville Jaguars - We've seen modest improvements from the Jags offense since the beginning of the season; but their defense has been horrific since Week 1. Today, we saw legitimate defensive improvements; a winless team playing their Super Bowl – a post bye week game against a divisional foe. Just having an early lead seemed to improve their energy level; and a halftime lead is something they haven’t come close to having all year before today.

    Still, make no mistake about it – the Jags rank #32 out of 32 NFL teams. Their offensive line play is nothing short of awful. Maurice Jones-Drew didn’t see much daylight, consistently hit at or behind the line of scrimmage. Chad Henne connected on a handful of downfield throws, but watching him trying to protect a lead was downright ugly. His fourth quarter interception was truly awful, a ‘bench me immediately’ kind of throw. The Jags had five fourth quarter drives with a lead, but managed to run more than 1:30 off the clock on only one of them.

    But the Jaguars defense made some plays today, something this playmaker-deficient unit has struggled to do all year. It’s a lot easier to win games when your defense forces four turnovers.

    I don’t often include post-game quotes in this column, but I thought this one was too good to leave out. Offensive guard Uche Nwaneri: “Getting this win today, it did feel like a breath of fresh air. It was kind of like [giving the] middle finger to all the people who want talk about the Jaguars not winning the game or being the worst 0-8 team in history. It’s kind of, ‘Eat this.’ That’s kind of how it feels."

    Baltimore Ravens - This offense won the Super Bowl because they took lots of big play shots down the field throughout the playoffs last year. This year, they consistently haven't been able to connect on deep balls. Joe Flacco was firing away downfield in last week's loss at Cleveland, but he was under duress throughout, taking big hit after big hit.

    This week, the Ravens first TD was set up on a deep throw that got a pass interference penalty. Still, Flacco was under pressure and he underthrew the pass, which would have been an easy TD if he could hit his receiver in stride. He's just not the same QB right now, struggling with his accuracy badly, unable to complete a single loss pass all afternoon; 0-fer the game on attempts longer than 15 yards.

    To make matters even worse for this offense, there’s still no running game whatsoever. Ray Rice is a complete non-factor these days; so is Bernard Pierce. Poor offensive line play is haunting this team. Despite another solid defensive showing, this is simply not a playoff caliber offense these days.

    Tennessee Titans - Talk about flat! Chris Johnson fumbled away the football deep in Tennessee territory on the Titans first play from scrimmage. From there, the offense went three-and-out on their next three drives, followed by an interception, another three-and-out and a fumble. That’s a team not ready to play!

    Chris Johnson was the difference between winning and losing at St Louis last week; his best game of the year. This week, after that initial fumble, Johnson dropped an easy dump off pass that would have been a first down and didn’t have a single rush longer than six yards. The offensive line in front of him did NOT have a good game, and that’s putting it mildly.

    Jake Locker couldn't stay healthy in college at Washington, and he hasn't been able to stay healthy as an NFL starter either. Initial reports called his injury today another season ender. Ryan Fitzpatrick was solid off the bench; one of the better NFL backups. But Fitz throwing in the red zone is a mistake waiting to happen; hence the Rob Bironas field goals.

    The Titans management brought in Bernard Pollard in to toughen up their defense in the offseason. Here, Pollard had two key penalties on the Jags lone touchdown drive in the second half, both major mistakes. The secondary as a group didn’t tackle well either, but that hasn’t been a consistent problem for this team.

    The Titans are starting to get some production out of young WR's like rookie Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright. For Mike Munchak’s squad to remain in playoff contention, they're going to need big plays out of that WR duo and fewer mistakes from Fitzpatrick in the red zone.

  • #2
    INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 3) at TENNESSEE (4 - 5) - 11/14/2013, 8:25 PM

    Top Trends for this game.
    INDIANAPOLIS is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
    INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
    TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    Comment


    • #3
      Colts at Titans: What Bettors Need to Know
      By Covers.com

      Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3, 42)

      A showdown in the AFC South lost a lot of its luster when the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans absorbed embarrassing home losses on Sunday. The host Titans could see their division title hopes disappear with a loss Thursday to the front-running Colts, who must rebound from a stunning 38-8 rout at the hands of the St. Louis Rams. Tennessee not only fell to previously winless Jacksonville, but may have lost quarterback Jake Locker for the season with a foot injury.

      Indianapolis is in control of the division with a two-game lead over the Titans, but it fell behind 28-0 in the first half Sunday after trailing 21-3 at the half in an eventual win at Houston the previous week. "I take full responsibility for it as the football coach, we did not have this team ready to play," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said in the wake of Sunday's carnage. Tennessee has lost four of five and faces a three-game road trip following Thursday's matchup.

      WEATHER: Clear skies, 1 mph wind and 45 degrees expected.

      COVERS POWER RATING: Colts -3, Tennessee +3.5 plus add 3 points for home field = adjusted Covers line of Colts -3.5.

      ABOUT THE COLTS (6-3): Indianapolis has beaten league heavyweights Seattle, San Francisco and Denver but its three losses have come against three clubs without a winning record. The Rams burned the Colts with three long touchdowns by rookie Tavon Austin, taking away Indianapolis' chances of trying to establish running back Trent Richardson, who has been a disaster since his acquisition from Cleveland, averaging 35.7 yards rushing over seven games. Although Andrew Luck threw for 353 yards, he was picked off three times - matching his total from the previous eight games.

      ABOUT THE TITANS (4-5): Locker was on crutches following Sunday's game amid fears that he suffered a Lisfranc injury, continuing a trend that has seen him unable to stay healthy in his first three seasons. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who lost two starts in place of Locker last month, threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday but his fumble with just over 2 1/2 minutes to play stalled Tennessee's comeback. Running back Chris Johnson broke out of his season-long doldrums with 150 yards and two touchdowns before the bye week, but was limited to 30 yards on 12 carries by the Jaguars.

      EXTRA POINTS

      1. The Colts have won three straight meetings and swept the season series by a combined 10 points - including an OT victory - a year ago.

      2. The Titans did not commit a turnover in their first four games but have coughed up the ball 13 times in their last five.

      3. Fitzpatrick's two losses last month came against Seattle and Kansas City, which rank among the top three teams in points allowed.

      Comment


      • #4
        NFL Week 11

        Colts (6-3) @ Titans (4-5) —
        Hard to trust Indy squad that got outscored 49-3 in first half of last two games vs teams with losing records, only winning at Houston after Kubiak had stroke at halftime. In two games since their bye, Colts ran ball 28 times (for 87 yards), dropped back to throw 99 times, a terrible ratio. Indy is 3-1 on road, with only loss at San Diego; they’ve won eight of last nine games vs Titans, winning three of last four visits here, with wins by 22-2-6 points. Tennessee lost QB Locker (foot) for year last week, but Fitzpatrick has NFL experience (xx-xx record as starter, 0-2 this year); Titans lost four of last five games after 3-1 start, losing to lowly 0-8 Jags last week- they’ve turned ball over 13 times (-5) in last five games (were +9 during 3-1 start) and given up defensive TD in two of last three games. Tennessee lost last three home games, allowing 28.7 ppg; Home teams are 0-4 vs spread in AFC South divisional games; NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-8 vs spread.

        Comment


        • #5
          INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 3) at TENNESSEE (4 - 5) - 11/14/2013, 8:25 PM

          Top Trends for this game.
          INDIANAPOLIS is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
          INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
          TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
          TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
          INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
          3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

          Comment


          • #6
            Colts at Titans
            By Kevin Rogers
            VegasInsider.com

            Both the Colts and Titans are coming off embarrassing home losses last week in different fashion, as the two AFC South rivals hook up in Nashville to kick off Week 11. Indianapolis is still in control of the division at 6-3, while Tennessee is within striking distance at 4-5, but the Titans need a victory to have a reasonable shot to possibly win the AFC South.

            St. Louis blindsided Indianapolis this past Sunday with a fumble return for a score and a punt return for a touchdown in the first 20 minutes. The Rams led the Colts, 28-0 at halftime, while cruising to a 38-0 advantage in the second half. Indianapolis avoided a shutout with an Andrew Luck touchdown pass and a two-point conversion, but the Colts suffered their third loss of the season, 38-8. St. Louis cashed outright as 7 ½-point road underdogs, while intercepting Luck three times.

            The Titans lost by only two points, but it came at the expense of the previously winless Jaguars. Tennessee fell behind Jacksonville as 11½-point home favorites, 13-0, but rallied back to trail, 22-20 with four minutes remaining. However, a fumble return for a touchdown gave Jacksonville back a nine-point lead, while Tennessee scored a late touchdown to cut the game to 29-27, which proved to be the final.

            Mike Munchak's squad started the season at 3-1, but the Titans have been exposed with losses in four of their last five games. Three of those defeats came at LP Field, as Tennessee has allowed at least 26 points in each of those home losses, resulting in three 'overs.' Even though the Titans are two games back of the Colts in the AFC South, Tennessee has yet to win a division contest in two tries, as a loss to Indianapolis would put Tennessee at a huge disadvantage to claim the division title.

            Indianapolis has done a solid job bouncing back from a loss the first two times around this season. Chuck Pagano's club lost to Miami in Week 2, but destroyed San Francisco on the road the following week, 27-7. The Colts' offense struggled in a Week 6 setback at San Diego, but Indianapolis took care of business against previously unbeaten Denver, 39-33. However, each victory off the defeat came in the underdog role, as the Colts are short favorites on Thursday night.

            Last season, the Colts swept the season series from the Titans, as each victory came by less than six points. In the first meeting in Nashville, Luck moved the Colts down the field in the final four minutes of regulation to tie the contest at 13-13. The former top pick hit Vick Ballard for a 16-yard touchdown in overtime to lift Indianapolis to a 19-13 triumph as 3½-point underdogs.

            In the next matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Colts needed another rally, as Indianapolis trailed by as many as 13 points in the third quarter. However, the Colts returned a Jake Locker interception for a touchdown and Adam Vinatieri kicked a pair of field goals to vault Indianapolis past Tennessee, 27-23 as 3½-point home favorites. This game barely finished 'over' the total of 47 thanks to a pair of defensive scores.

            VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says this could be the last stand for Tennessee, "With Locker done, the Titans are going to have to rally around Ryan Fitzpatrick if they're going to be a factor in the AFC playoff race. Having lost to the Jaguars at home, you have to wonder whether guys will rally around the backup or fold up and quit on the season. After a flat effort against St. Louis, the Colts will surely be ready to play as they look to lock up the AFC South on the road. Whether the Titans show up remains to be seen, and Munchak's job as head coach probably hangs in the balance as his team takes the Thursday night stage. It's on him to get his football team to turn the page."

            Locker suffered a season-ending foot injury in the loss to Jacksonville, the second major injury the former University of Washington quarterback has suffered this season. In two games started by Fitzpatrick, the Titans scored a total of 30 points in losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks, who are a combined 18-1 on the season.

            The Colts are listed as three-point road 'chalk,' while the total is set at 42½. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on the NFL Network.

            Comment


            • #7
              NFL mid-week line moves: Sharps like Under in Denver

              Week 11’s odds are on the move with action forcing sportsbooks to adjust their numbers before the weekend. We talk to Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag about the biggest mid-week line moves and where those odds could end up come Sunday:

              San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints - Open: -3, Move: -3.5

              Most wagering outlets opened with the Saints as fieldgoal faves at home for this clash of NFC giants. Bettors are backing the home team, who are coming off a spectacular performance on the national stage last Sunday night.

              "Literally all the early money was on the Saints, forcing us to to to Saints -3 (-120) and eventually getting off that key number of 3 and going to 3.5 flat," says Stewart. "I doubt we'll go much higher than 3.5 and if anything, we might go -3.5 (-115) later this week, but again at this point we're fine with our 3.5 flat number.

              Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - Open: 51, Move: 49.5

              Bettors have loved betting the Over in Broncos' games this season, but this week we have seen a change in direction. Early action was on the Under, but Stewart stated that since the public hasn't gotten involved yet, fully expects them to come in and take the Over like they have for each game this season.

              "We opened the Chiefs-Broncos total 51, by far the lowest total we've offered on at Bronco game since Week 3," Stewart said. "But our opening total didn't last long as we saw sharp action bet us under that number, and we moved aggressively off that sharp bet and went straight to 50, eventually going to 49.5 and that's the number we've been dealing since Tuesday.

              Green Bay Packers at New York Giants - Open: -7, Move: -6.5

              Even with the Packers starting a third-string QB, it hasn't been a deterrent to Packer backers. Money has come in on the Pack since that opening number forcing a move, and books are starting to see New York money trickle in.

              "We opened the Giants -7 versus the Packers, and we thought the Giants would attract the money in this game," Stewart told Covers. "We were wrong. Most of the initial action was on the Packers +7, forcing us to go to Packers +7 (-115) / Giants -7 (-105). With more money coming in on the Packers at that number, we moved off the key number of 7 and went to Giants -6.5 flat. But even at that number we're seeing more and more action come in on the dog so we further adjusted off the 6.5 and made the Packers +6.5 (-115) / Giants -6.5 (-105)."

              Comment


              • #8
                Sharp Moves - Week 11
                By Mike Rose
                VegasInsider.com

                We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 11!

                All public betting percentages courtesy of the VegasInsider.com matchups as of Thursday afternoon.

                Buffalo -1 - The Bills hung in there against the Jets in the first meeting of the season even though they allowed 513 yards. They have to have this one if they are even remotely going to contend for a spot in the playoffs.

                Opening Line: Pick 'Em
                Current Line: Buffalo -1
                Public Betting Percentage: 59% on New York

                Miami +1 - QB Ryan Tannehill has been trying to carry this team, but with the Richie Incognito story seemingly dominating everything associated with the team, the losses are starting to pile up. Not all is lost though, especially with the Chargers coming in from the West Coast to try to win their first game in over two decades in South Beach.

                Opening Line: Miami +1
                Current Line: Miami +1
                Public Betting Percentage: 77% on San Diego

                Minnesota +12 - This is the oddest line movement of the week. Three offensive linemen are coming back this week for the Seahawks, and WR Percy Harvin is about set to make his debut for his new team against the team that traded him. And yet the line is moving in favor of Minnesota with nearly 60% of the betting action coming in on Seattle? That makes Minnesota as sharp as could be.

                Opening Line: Minnesota +13½
                Current Line: Minnesota +12
                Public Betting Percentage: 59% on Seattle

                Denver -9½ - It's tough to believe that the Broncos are actually sharp in this game, but they legitimately are. Kansas City is garnering a tremendous percentage of the action on Sunday Night Football this week, and the sharps think that it isn't justified. They aren't worried about QB Peyton Manning's injury, as he has been cleared to play for the most explosive offense in the NFL.

                Opening Line: Denver -7½
                Current Line: Denver -9½
                Public Betting Percentages: 70% on Kansas City

                Comment


                • #9
                  NFL Week 11

                  Falcons (2-7) @ Buccaneers (1-8) — Not sure how Atlanta is favored over anyone, especially on road; they’ve lost six of last seven games- only win was 31-23 (-7) over Bucs in Week 7, in flagfest (both sides 100+ PY) where Tampa scored one TD, three FGs in four trips to red zone. Falcons ran ball 18 times for 18 yards that game, are now last in NFL in rushing but are 8-2 in last ten games vs Bucs, 3-1 in last four visits here. Seven of last ten series games were decided by 6 or less points. Tampa is on short work week after holding on for first win Monday night; they’ve led 21-0/15-0 in last two games, so they have talent, but they’ve been outscored 49-17 in second half of last three games, which suggests staff is being outcoached as far as halftime adjustments go. I mean, Bucs are 1-8 and they’ve only been minus in turnovers one game, and that was -1 vs Panthers. Home teams are 4-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Over is 6-2 in last eight Falcon games, 4-0-1 in last five Tampa games.

                  Jets (5-4) @ Bills (3-7) — Buffalo lost last three games, turning ball over seven times (-6) with different starting QB in every game, as they fade before Week 12 (latest) bye; they’re 2-3 at home, with four of five games decided by 3 or less points- none of their three wins are by more than a FG. Jets (-2.5) beat Buffalo 27-20 in Week 3, outgaining Bills 513-328, overcoming -2 turnover ratio, only game Jets have won this year with minus ratio; they’re now 7-1 in last eight series games, 3-1 in last four here (lost 28-9 at Buffalo LY). Gang Green averaged 11.4 yards/pass attempt in first meeting and sacked Manuel eight times- they’ve lost three of last four post-bye games, are 7-3 vs spread in last ten AFC East road tilts, 1-3 SU on road this year, with only win 30-28 at 2-7 Atlanta. Jets are 1-3 vs spread this season (0-4 SU) in game following a win. Bills lost last home game despite not allowing offensive TD; Chiefs’ defense scored twice against them in 23-13 win. Average total in last four series games is 53. Six of last seven Jet games, six of last nine Buffalo games went over the total.

                  Lions (6-3) @ Steelers (3-6) — Detroit had huge divisional win last week, now leads division after winning last two games by total of three points; Lions ran ball for 143-145 yards last two games- they’re 3-2 on road, losing at Arizona/Green Bay, but they’ve lost last eight visits to Steel City, last non-loss was tie in 1959, before I was born. Steelers are 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning last three by average score of 37-18, but these Steelers aren’t those Steelers. Pitt allowed 6-16-10 points in its three wins; they’re 0-5 allowing more than 16. Only game Detroit scored less than 21 was when Calvin Johnson was late scratch at Lambeau in Week 5 (L9-22). Lions are 4-3 as a favorite this year, Steelers 0-3 as underdog, with losses by 10-17-24 points. Pitt held four of last five opponents under 300 total yards, but gave up 610 to Patriots in fifth game. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-9-1 vs spread this season, 2-3 on road; AFC North underdogs are 7-5-1, 3-2 at home. Three of last four Lion games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.

                  Redskins (3-6) @ Eagles (5-5) — Philly/Vick ran out to 26-7 halftime lead in opener vs Redskins, who weren’t well-prepared to face Kelly’s offense in his first NFL game (Eagles won 33-27); 10 weeks later, Foles is Iggles’ QB—they’ve scored 10 TDs on 22 drives in winning last two games but have also lost last 10 home games, scoring no TDs on 25 drives in last two. Redskins blew 24-14 halftime lead in last game at Minnesota, are now 1-4 on road, with losses by 18-15-24-7 points and only win at Oakland. Washington ran ball for 187.4 yards/game over last five games- they’re 0-4 this season when scoring less than 24 points. Redskins allowed TD on defense/special teams in five of last six games; they’ve allowed 15 TDs on opponents’ last 41 drives. Teams that played on Thursday night are 12-6 vs spread in their next game, 7-2 if they lost. Team that won first meeting also won rematch in this series in nine of last 11 years. Last four Washington games went over the total; three of last four Eagle games stayed under.

                  Chargers (4-5) @ Dolphins (4-5) — San Diego is already making its fifth trip east of Mississippi in 11 weeks, its second in three weeks; Bolts are 2-3 on road, with three of five games decided by 3 points, or in OT. Miami lost five of last six games, is on short work week after losing to winless Bucs Monday and has major off-field distractions; their four home games have been decided by total of 11 points, with underdogs covering last three. Dolphins had 2 yards rushing on 14 carries Monday, their lowest total in 729 games in franchise history. Chargers are 0-2 since their bye, giving up 58 points (8 TDs on 21 drives) in losses by 8-6 points; they’ve lost last six visits to South Beach- last visit was famous ’81 41-38 playoff win in Fouts/Winslow era. Chargers gave up 9.1/8.2 yards/pass attempt in last two games; not sure Tannehill was weapons/ability to exploit that SD weakness—Fish averaged 4.8 ypa in Tampa Monday. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 8-3 vs spread; AFC East home teams are 10-3. Under is 3-1 in last four Charger games, 2-0-1 in last three Miami games.

                  Ravens (4-5) @ Bears (5-4) — Chicago has one of better backup QBs in McCown; he came in cold at end last week and led 74-yard TD drive that would’ve tied Detroit had they gotten 2-point conversion. He also played well in previous two games, vs Redskins/Packers, so he is capable leader. Bears are 3-2 at home, with wins by 3-1-6 points; they held Lions to 5.8 ypa last week, but 12 points on four trips to red zone was their undoing. Ravens snapped 3-game skid with OT win last week, after they gave up 51-yard TD pass on Hail Mary on last play of game; they’re 1-4 on road, with only win by FG at Miami- they’re 1-4 when allowing more than 17 points, 3-1 when they allow 17 or less. Bears lost two of last three at home, scoring 18-19 in losses, their two lowest scoring games of year. Home teams won three of last four series games; Ravens lost two of last three visits here, with last one in ’09. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 4-3-1 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 2-6-1. Six of last eight Baltimore games stayed under the total.

                  Browns (4-5) @ Bengals (6-4) — Three of last five Cincy games went OT, with Bengals losing last two weeks in extra time; they’re 4-0 at home this year, 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 10-4-7-40 points. Cleveland held them to 266 yards in 17-6 upset win in Week 4 on Lake Erie, least years Bengals gained in game this year, but Browns haven’t swept season series since ’02, losing last four visits here, by 9-2-3-7 points. In fact, Bengals won second meeting of year in this series eight of last nine years. Favorites are 10-2 vs spread in Browns’ last 12 post-bye games; Cleveland is 2-6 as post-bye underdog, losing three of last four (losses by 16-7-3). Browns are 4-1 when anyone but Weeden starts at QB but they’re 1-3 on road (2-2 as road dogs) losing away games by 8-18-6 points- they averaged 7.6/6.1 yards/pass attempt in Campbell’s first two starts, their two best games in that category this year. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 18-9 vs spread this season. Four of last five Cleveland games went over the total.

                  Raiders (3-6) @ Texans (2-7) — Houston is 7-point favorite despite not winning game since Sept 15; Coach Kubiak returns to sidelines this week, 14 days after his mini-stroke at halftime when Houston led Colts 21-3 in what was their best half of season. Kubiak is play-caller, so game management will be better; it was awful in his absence- they punted on 4th/10 from own 39 last week with 5:00 to go, down 27-17. Texans turned ball over only twice in Keenum’s three starts (+3), compared to 15 (-12) in Schaub’s six starts; Keenum seems to find Andre Johnson more often, which is a good thing. Oakland lost five of last seven games; they’re 0-4 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 4-16-17-4 points. Texans won five of seven series games; Raiders won last visit here, in what I think was first game after Oakland icon Al Davis passed away. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 7-2 vs spread, 4-1 on road; AFC South home favorites are 1-4. Six of nine Houston games went over the total.

                  Packers (5-4) @ Giants (3-6) — McCarthy thought enough of #3 QB Tolzien to name him starter until Rodgers returns; he becomes third different starting QB in Pack’s last three games- they signed former backup Flynn (cut by Raiders/Bills this year) to back him up. Green Bay lost last two games, scoring one TD, four FGs on seven trips to red zone. Defense has only three takeaways in last six games (-2); they’ve only been plus in turnovers one game this year (+1 vs Browns in Week 7). Giants won last three games after 0-6 start; they allowed 27+ points in all six losses; they’ve allowed 7-7-20 points in last three games, but allowed TD on defense/special teams in four straight games. Home side lost seven of last nine series games; Packers won four of last five visits here, losing 38-10 LY. Two TDs Raiders scored last week were by defense and on a 5-yard drive after Giants fumbled opening kickoff. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; NFC North road dogs are 2-3. Five of last six Packer games stayed under the total.

                  Cardinals (5-4) @ Jaguars (1-8) — First road game in five weeks is must-win game for Arizona if they’re legit playoff contenders in NFC; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win 13-10 at 1-8 Tampa Bay in Week 4- three of their five wins are by 4 or less points. Jax got four takeaways (+2) in first win last week in Nashville; they had total of eight (-7) in first eight games. Jaguars were outscored 131-21 (33-5 average) in losing first four home games, scoring one TD on 41 drives- they lost backup LB/special teamer Reynolds to PED suspension, second week in row they’ve had player suspended. Cardinals have 18 3/outs on 38 drives in their last three road games- on their first drive in last six games, Cardinals gained total of 83 yards on 26 plays; a fast start against a bad team would be big here. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-5-1 vs spread, 4-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-8-1, 2-5 at home. Road team won two of three series meetings; Arizona split its two visits here. Four of last five Jaguar games, three of last four Redbird tilts went over the total.

                  Chiefs (9-0) @ Broncos (8-1) — Reid had been 13-0 in post-bye games until he lost LY, when everything fell apart in Philly; unbeaten Chiefs won 26-16 (+3) at Philly in Reid’s return in Week 3, only time they’ve been underdog this year. After facing five QBs in row who were backups in training camp, Manning’s offense, averaging 41.2 ppg, awaits here. Denver has 26 TDs on 56 drives at home this year, but Manning tweaked ankle at end of Charger game last week, so he’s not 100%, not that he was ever mobile. No one has scored more than 17 points on Chiefs this year; can their edge rushers get to an immobile QB? Broncos are 4-1 as home favorites this year; only non-cover was when they laid 27 to Jaguars, won by 16. KC scored total of 32 points in last five series games; they’ve split last four visits here, after losing previous eight visits to Denver. Divisional home favorites of 5+ points are 10-6 vs spread so far this season. Eight of nine Denver games went over total; seven of nine Chief games stayed under.

                  Vikings (2-7) @ Seahawks (9-1) — Seattle gets former Viking WR Harvin back just in time for Minnesota’s visit. Vikings snapped 4-game skid with comeback win over Redskins 10 days ago; QB Ponder got hurt late (left shoulder) but is expected to go here. Minnesota is 2-2 as a true road underdog, losing away games by 10-1-16-4 points- they won on neutral field in London. Last game before late bye for Seattle, which is 2-2 as home favorite, winning all four home games by 21-28-7-3 points; they’ve won five games in row overall- only two of their last six wins are by more than seven points. Seahawks converted 17-32 on 3rd down in last two games, running ball for 409 yards, but falling behind 21-0 to Bucs in last home game is alarming. In ten games, Seattle has lost field position only once, in Week 7 at Arizona; they’ve also been minus in turnovers only once all year, and won that game too. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-5-1 vs spread, 5-4-1 at home; NFC North road underdogs are 2-3. Eight of nine Minnesota games went over the total.

                  49ers (6-3) @ Saints (7-2) — New Orleans won/covered all five home games this year, winning in Superdome by 6-24-21-18-32 points, while scoring 35.2 ppg. Only once have they been below 8.1 yards/pass attempt at home- they haven’t been above 7.6 in four road games. 49ers beat Saints 36-31/31-21 last two years, after New Orleans won previous six meetings; Niners scored 3-9-7 points in their three losses, completing 50% or less of passes in all three games. Much like Seattle, 49ers are a bully team, with last five wins all by 12+ points; only two of their games (1-1) this year have been decided by less than 12 points. Kaepernick was 11-22/46 yards passing last week; ain’t beating a good team throwing like that. Saints had seven TDs last week; only one was on drive of less than 75 yards, as they set NFL record with 40 first downs (only 12 of their 80 plays came on third down, and they converted 9-12 into first downs). NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread this season; NFC West underdogs are 6-5, 4-4 on road. Over is 4-0 in last four Saint games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four.

                  Patriots (7-2) @ Panthers (6-3) — Carolina went to Candlestick last week and outslugged 49ers 10-9, holding SF to 44 yards passing; they’ve won/covered last five games, now get national TV exposure and shot at team used to such exposure. Panthers allowed only one first half TD all season, and outscored last three opponents 40-7 in second half- they’ve won last three home games by combined score of 92-15, after losing home opener 12-7 to Seattle. Curious to see young Patriot receivers work against this impressive defense; NE lost its last two road games, gaining less than 300 yards in both games. Pats ran ball for 349 yards in last two games; they’ve won nine of last ten post-bye games. Carolina is 20-43 on third down in last three games, leading to field position advantages of 16-15-5 yards. NE won three of five series games, 32-29 win in Super Bowl 28 being most famous one- teams split two meetings here. Four of last five Carolina games, three of last four Patriot games went over the total.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore at Chicago
                    By Ian Cameron
                    Sportsmemo.com

                    Baltimore at Chicago
                    Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
                    CRIS Opener: Chicago -3 O/U 47
                    CRIS Current: Chicago -3 O/U 45
                    Rob Veno's Power Rating: Chicago -3
                    Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Chicago

                    I just can’t recommend a bet in this price range right now with the Baltimore Ravens especially playing away from M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore is a shell of the Super Bowl team from a year ago. There is zero downfield passing game as Joe Flacco has struggled mightily with 6.4 yards per attempt and a 12-11 TD-INT ratio. They can’t run the football either with Ray Rice averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. The defense clearly hasn’t been the same after losing veteran leadership from the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in the offseason. As a team they rank middle of the pack in the NFL in total defense allowing 342.2 yards per game. Baltimore is 4-5 on the season including a 1-3 SU/ATS run. That is not the kind of track record I want when supporting a team that will likely need to win outright in order to cover this number. It’s worth noting the Ravens are 1-4 SU/ATS on the road this season and on a 1-6 SU/ATS slide dating back to last season.

                    Chicago isn’t in all that better shape than Baltimore these days as the Bears have suffered some devastating injuries on the defensive side of the football with CB Charles Tillman, LB Lance Briggs, LB D.J. Williams, DT Nick Collins and CB Kelvin Hayden all out indefinitely. Chicago will be forced to play without Jay Cutler for the second time this season as he is out with a high ankle sprain. However, I think the Cutler injury provides some pointspread value on the Bears in a prime “step up” spot off a tough divisional loss to the Detroit Lions last week. Josh McCown is no slouch and has been effective moving the football for this Bears offense completing 60% of his passes at 7.7 yards per pass attempt and he’s got a perfect 4-0 TD-INT ratio – showing the ability to protect the football which is an attribute that Cutler sometimes lacks. Overall I’m not expecting Chicago’s offense to suddenly hit the wall without Cutler. McCown shown he can lead this team to victory when the Bears won in Green Bay. Chicago piled up 442 total yards of offense including 271 through the air giving us enough positives from McCown to believe the Bears can remain a capable team with him under center.

                    Looks like the prevailing number is -3 but a few -2.5’s with juice out there and that is the way I would look in this contest.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Total Talk - Week 11
                      By Chris David
                      VegasInsider.com

                      Week 10 Recap

                      Total players saw a stalemate in Week 10 as the ‘over/under’ produced a 7-7 record in the 14 games. The betting public was very heavy to the ‘over’ in the Carolina-San Francisco and Denver-San Diego matchups on Sunday and both came up short. It was the first time this season that the Broncos saw their total go ‘under’ the number. Another total that was steamed up in the afternoon was the Detroit-Chicago matchup and that outcome was leaning ‘under’ all day.

                      Despite winning the early games, bookmakers weren’t happy to see all three primetime games go ‘over’ the number, in particular the Sunday Night Affair between the Saints and Cowboys. New Orleans blasted Dallas 49-17 as 7 ½-point home favorites and the Favorite-Over result hit the trifecta, cashing in the game and both the first and second halves.

                      On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 78-66-2.

                      Non-Conference Overs

                      This particular trend has gained a lot of steam the last three weeks and deservingly so. There have been 46 non-conference matchups (AFC vs. NFC) this season and the ‘over’ has gone 35-11 (76%) in those games, which includes an 11-0 record the past three weeks. I personally thought this trend would temper off just based on the belief that all things will balance out and I would still be hesitant to bet it blindly at this point of the season. There are only 18 situations left and four take place this weekend.

                      Baltimore at Chicago
                      Arizona at Jacksonville
                      Detroit at Pittsburgh
                      New England at Carolina - (See Below)

                      Line Moves

                      The Line Moves went 2-1 last week, pushing the season numbers to 29-19-1 (60%). Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.

                      Detroit at Pittsburgh: Line opened 47½ and dropped to 45½
                      Baltimore at Chicago: Line opened 47 and dropped to 43 (Weather)
                      Kansas City at Denver: Line opened 51 and dropped to 49
                      Green Bay at N.Y. Giants: Line opened 43 and dropped to 40½
                      New England at Carolina: Line opened 44 and jumped to 45½

                      Divisional Battles

                      We have five divisional matchups this week and four of them will be rematches. If you follow my column before then you’re aware of the vice versa total angle and how it pertains to divisional matchups. It’s simple and not always correct, but certainly something to watch and use when you begin your handicapping.

                      When analyzing the second divisional encounter of the season, I look at the first outcome and if the total goes way ‘over’ or ‘under’ the closing number, I tend to lean to the opposite outcome in the second go ‘round. For those of you still unclear, I normally look for the first meeting to exceed the total (higher or lower) by 10 points and if it fits, then I’ll analyze the total further.

                      Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The Falcons stopped the Buccaneers 31-23 on Oct. 20 and the 54 points helped cash the ‘over’ 43. Since that win, Atlanta has scored 13, 10 and 10 points. Also, Tampa Bay isn’t a great offensive team at home (15.8 PPG). However, the Bucs have seen the ‘over cash in five straight.

                      N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Jets defeated the Bills 27-20 and the game went ‘over’ the closing number of 47. The last two games in Buffalo have gone ‘under’ and the Bills offense has struggled the last three weeks (13.3 PPG). New York has watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their last three games off the bye.

                      Washington at Philadelphia: The Eagles ran past the Redskins 33-27 on the road in Week 1 and the ‘over’ (51 ½) cashed early in the fourth quarter. The line is a tad higher for the rematch (53) and some bettors might be hesitant to back Philadelphia (0-4) at home, where it’s averaging 13 PPG.

                      Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Browns beat the Bengals 17-6 and the closing total of 42 ½ was never threatened. Prior to this ‘under’ ticket, the ‘over’ was on a 5-0 run in this series. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton couldn’t get anything going in the first meeting against Cleveland but he did toss six touchdowns in the two contests against the Browns last season.

                      Kansas City at Denver: (See Below)

                      Under the Lights

                      The ‘over’ went 3-0 in primetime games last week. The first two were never in the doubt and the MNF affair between the Bucs and Dolphins started slow but did enough to slide ‘over’ a low number. Earlier this week on Thursday the Colts beat the Titans 30-27, which was another ‘over’ ticket. In Week 11, we have some great heavyweight battles on tap as all four teams in action will most likely be playing in this year’s postseason.

                      Kansas City at Denver: This total opened at 51 and has already been bet down to 49 and you could argue both ways based on each team’s tendencies. The Chiefs have been an ‘under’ team (7-2) all season while the Broncos have been a great ‘over’ (8-1) look. Denver owns the best scoring offense (41.2 PPG) and Kansas City owns the top scoring defense (12.3 PPG). The ‘under’ has gone 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in this series, which includes a 1-0-1 mark last season. Denver swept the season series in 2012, winning 17-9 on the road and 38-3 at home.

                      My final thoughts for this matchup focus on trends and as much as I don’t like to play the “due factor” I’ll bring this to your attention. The last three weeks, the SNF matchup has watched the favorite win and cover, plus the ‘over’ has cashed in each game as well. When that happens, the public wins and the books lose. Is that outcome going to happen again? It very well could but make a note that the only combination that hasn’t happened on SNF this season is the Underdog-Under result.

                      New England at Carolina: Similar to the Chiefs-Broncos matchup, this game pits offense versus defense as well. The Patriots offense (26 PPG) haven’t been as explosive as past seasons but they can still score. On the other side, the Panthers defense (12.8 PPG) has been lights out albeit against offensive units that have struggled. New England is coming off its bye week and bettors should be aware that the team is 9-1 in its last 10 regular season games with rest. During this span, the Patriots have been held under 20 points once and they put up 27 or more points six times. Lastly, New England is 2-0 both SU and ATS versus the NFC South this season, defeating Atlanta 30-23 and New Orleans 30-27. The ‘over’ cashed in both affairs.

                      Fearless Predictions

                      Similar to the non-conference ‘over’ trend mentioned above, we’re starting to heat up as well. After a 4-0 week, the bankroll is now back in the black for $110. We only have seven weeks remaining before the postseason, so let’s get after it. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

                      Best Over: San Diego-Miami 45½
                      Best Under: Kansas City-Denver 49
                      Best Team Total: Over Miami 23

                      Three-Team Total Teaser:
                      Over 36½ San Diego-Miami
                      Under 58 Kansas City-Denver
                      Under 62½ Philadelphia-Washington

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Week 11 Tip Sheet
                        By Kevin Rogers
                        VegasInsider.com

                        Lions (-2½, 45½) at Steelers

                        Detroit: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS
                        Pittsburgh: 3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS

                        Last week's results: The Lions pulled off a season sweep of the Bears, holding off Chicago in a 21-19 victory at Soldier Field. Detroit picked up its third road win of the season, surpassing its victory total on the highway from last season. The Steelers put together their most complete defensive performance of the season in a 23-10 trouncing of the Bills, limiting Buffalo to 227 yards of offense.

                        Previous meeting result: Pittsburgh failed to cover as double-digit favorites at Ford Field in 2009, as the Steelers held off the Lions, 28-20. Ben Roethlisberger threw three touchdown passes, while Matthew Stafford missed the game due to injury in his rookie season.

                        Betting notes: The Lions are just 2-4 SU/ATS in their last six games against AFC opponents, while posting a 3-1 SU/ATS record as a road favorite this season. After going 6-2 the last two seasons against the NFC, the Steelers have lost each of their first two interconference contests this season against the Bears and Vikings.

                        Redskins at Eagles (-4½, 53)

                        Washington: 3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS
                        Philadelphia: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS

                        Last week's results: The Redskins continued their frustrating season after blowing a 13-point lead in a 34-27 defeat at Minnesota. Washington started last season at 3-6 before winning the final seven games to claim the NFC East crown, as the Redskins are in the same spot this season. The Eagles keep dominating on the road, winning their fifth away contest after topping the Packers, 27-13. Philadelphia amazingly enters Sunday's action without a home win this season.

                        Previous meeting result: The Eagles opened up the Chip Kelly era with a 33-27 triumph at FedEx Field in Week 1 as four-point underdogs. The final score was extremely misleading, as Philadelphia led Washington, 26-7 at halftime, while the Eagles rushed for 263 yards in the victory.

                        Betting notes: Amazingly, Philadelphia has lost 10 consecutive games at Lincoln Financial Field, while last covering a home contest against the Redskins in the final week of the 2011 season. Washington has cashed just once in five road contests this season, while compiling an 0-2 ATS record against NFC East opponents after a perfect 6-0 ATS mark within the division in 2012.

                        Ravens at Bears (-3, 43)

                        Baltimore: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS
                        Chicago: 5-4 SU, 2-6-1 ATS

                        Last week's results: The Ravens snapped a three-game skid by edging the Bengals in overtime, 20-17. Baltimore avoided disaster after allowing the game-tying Hail Mary touchdown to end regulation, but the Ravens did improve to 2-2 inside AFC North play. The Bears fell to 2-4 the last six games following a 3-0 start as Chicago was tripped up at home by Detroit, 21-19.

                        Previous meeting result: Baltimore dominated Chicago as 10 ½-point home favorites in 2009 with a 31-7 rout. Since the Ravens moved to Baltimore in 1996, the home team in this series have won each of the four meetings, including Chicago's 10-6 triumph in 2005 at Soldier Field.

                        Betting notes: The Ravens have struggled on the highway with a 1-3 SU/ATS record, while scoring a combined 34 points in their last two away contests. The Bears are 6-0 to the 'over' in games with a total of 49 or less, while going 0-3-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.

                        Chargers (-1½, 45½) at Dolphins

                        San Diego: 4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS
                        Miami: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS

                        Last week's results: The Dolphins couldn't overcome all the controversy from the Jonathan Martin situation, as Miami lost to previously winless Tampa Bay, 22-19 as short road favorites. Since starting the season at 3-0, the Dolphins have won and covered only once in their last six games. The Chargers fell behind the Broncos by 22 points before managing some late touchdowns in a 28-20 home defeat to Denver. San Diego lost consecutive games for the first time this season after falling in overtime the previous week at Washington.

                        Previous meeting result: The Chargers cruised past the Dolphins in 2011 as a 6 ½-point home favorite, 26-16. Dating back to 1995, the last nine meetings between these teams have finished 'under' the total, while San Diego is making its first visit to Miami since 2008, when the Dolphins grabbed a 17-10 victory.

                        Betting notes: After San Diego allowed 61 points in the first two weeks, the Chargers have given up an average of 20.1 points in the last seven games. The Lightning Bolts have played well on the East Coast since last December, winning five of the last six with the lone defeat coming in overtime at Washington. The Dolphins are 3-0-1 to the 'over' at home this season, while yielding at least 20 points in all four home contests.

                        49ers at Saints (-3, 48)

                        San Francisco: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
                        New Orleans: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS

                        Last week's results: The 49ers' offense couldn't get going in a 10-9 home defeat to the red-hot Panthers, failing to cash as six-point favorites. San Francisco saw its five-game winning streak snapped, as the Niners have scored single-digits in each of their three losses. The Saints went up and down the field all over the dreadful Cowboys' defense in a 49-17 stomping of Dallas. New Orleans put up a ridiculous 625 yards of offense, while Drew Brees threw four touchdown passes.

                        Previous meeting result: In Colin Kaepernick's first career road start, the Niners outlasted the Saints at the Superdome last November, 31-21. San Francisco returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns, while Brees tossed three touchdowns in the defeat. The last three meetings between these teams have gone 'over' the total since 2010, including San Francisco's playoff triumph over New Orleans in 2011.

                        Betting notes: The Saints have hit the 'over' in four consecutive games, while New Orleans has posted a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record at the Superdome. San Francisco is 3-1 to the 'over' in four road contests, while the Niners have covered each of their last three away from Candlestick Park.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Sunday Night Football: Chiefs vs. Broncos

                          KANSAS CITY (9 - 0) at DENVER (8 - 1) - 11/17/2013, 8:30 PM

                          Top Trends for this game.
                          DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
                          DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
                          DENVER is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
                          DENVER is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
                          DENVER is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
                          3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


                          KANSAS CITY vs. DENVER
                          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games on the road
                          Kansas City is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Denver
                          The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver's last 10 games
                          Denver is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Kansas City


                          Kansas City at Denver
                          Kansas City: 20-9 UNDER against conference opponents
                          Denver: 15-5 ATS as a favorite


                          Kansas City @ Denver

                          The Chiefs are 7-11 ATS as road dogs of 7½ to 10 points and 39-48 ATS in November. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 11-4 ATS after a bye week and 12-3 ATS as a road dog of more than 5 points. Denver is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 3½ to 9½ points, 16-9 ATS overall as a favorite, 7-1 ATS in November, 84-63 ATS versus winning teams and 9-4 ATS versus divisional opponents. However, the Broncos are 3-16-1 ATs as divisional home favorites of less than 10 points.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Sunday's NFL Week 11 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
                            Covers.com

                            New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+1, 41)

                            Geno Smith is having an up and down rookie season but played one of his best games against Buffalo in Week 3, when he passed for a season-high 331 yards to go along with two touchdowns in a 27-20 triumph. New York is not asking much of Smith, who is enjoying the luxury of a rushing offense that produces an average of 129 yards, and he attempted a season-low 19 passes in the win over the Saints.

                            Buffalo is averaging 13.3 points during its three-game slide and just barely scratched out one touchdown in a 23-10 loss at Pittsburgh last week when Manuel found Chris Cragg with three seconds left. Manuel could have less help this week with wide receivers Stevie Johnson (groin) and Robert Woods (ankle) each sitting out Wednesday’s practice.

                            LINE: Opened as a pick and has been bet up to Buffalo +1. The total is steady at 41.
                            WEATHER: There is a 64 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the field from the south at 16 mph.
                            COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+1.5) - Buffalo (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -0.5
                            TRENDS:

                            * Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with winning records.
                            * Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
                            * Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Buffalo.

                            Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 43.5)

                            Atlanta has been plagued by turnovers - it's minus-8 in that department - as well as injuries to several standouts on both sides of the ball. The hits continue this week with tight end Tony Gonzalez (toe) missing practice Wednesday and receiver Roddy White (shoulder) and running back Steven Jackson (toe) limited. The Falcons should get linebacker Sean Weatherspoon back this week after missing seven games with a foot injury.

                            Tampa Bay's offense ranks 31st among 32 teams in total yards and scoring, and the unit took another hit when running back Mike James suffered a season-ending broken ankle. James had proven a viable plan B after losing Doug Martin for the season, and now the workload falls to Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey to continue the improved ground game that has powered much-improved efforts the past two weeks.

                            LINE: Atlanta has jumped from a pick to +1. The total is up one from a 42.5-point opener.
                            WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 22 percent chance of showers.
                            COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+4.5) - Tampa Bay (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers -1.5
                            TRENDS:

                            * Falcons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous contest.
                            * Buccaneers are 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 home games.
                            * Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

                            Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1, 47)

                            Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson increased his career touchdown reception total to 63, overtaking Herman Moore for the top spot on the franchise list. Johnson and quarterback Matthew Stafford have formed a dangerous combination, with the former leading the league in average receiving yards (113.0) and tied for second in TD catches (nine) and the latter fourth in both yards (2,836) and scoring passes (19).

                            Pittsburgh will need its defense to continue its strong play to keep the Lions from notching their third straight win. The Steelers have allowed an average of 201.3 passing yards, the fourth-best mark in the NFL, and held Buffalo to 227 total yards last week. Pittsburgh's running game has improved of late, as the team has eclipsed the 100-yard plateau in three of the last four games.

                            LINE: Detroit has held steady as a 1-point fave, with the total currently 47.
                            WEATHER: There is a 63 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 14 mph.
                            COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-3.0) + Pittsburgh (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Lions -3.5
                            TRENDS:

                            * Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams with losing home records.
                            * Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
                            * Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

                            Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 53)

                            One year after producing two of the NFL’s top offensive rookies in Griffin and running back Alfred Morris, the Redskins have struck gold again with tight end Jordan Reed, who leads all NFL rookies with 44 catches. Morris is having a fine sophomore campaign, as well, with 448 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. Washington’s punt return unit ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per return (6.1).

                            Philadelphia quarterback Nick Foles has 10 touchdown passes over the last two games, five of which have gone to Riley Cooper, who has eight catches for 241 yards during that stretch. While the Eagles’ offense continues to generate the headlines, their defense has allowed 21 points or less in six straight games. Philadelphia is tied with Dallas for first place in the NFC East.

                            LINE: The Eagles opened as low as -3 but have been bet up to -4.5. The total is up from 51 to 53.
                            WEATHER: There's a 23 percent chance of showers with temperatures in the mid-60s.
                            COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+3.5) + Philadelphia (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -7.5
                            TRENDS:

                            * Redskins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
                            * Eagles are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
                            * Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

                            Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 44)

                            Joe Flacco threw a pair of touchdown passes as Baltimore pulled out a critical 20-17 overtime win last week, but the defending Super Bowl champs haven't won two straight games since mid-September. The schedule is favorable, however, as Baltimore plays three straight games at home after its date with Chicago against teams with a combined 10-17 record. Baltimore trails Cincinnati by 1 1/2 games in the division and is also behind in the wild-card race.

                            Bears QB Jay Cutler is out a high ankle sprain and defensive back Charles Tillman is also out with a torn triceps, adding to a long list of sidelined starters. Backup QB Josh McCown has been sharp in his three appearances on the season, completing 60 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Brandon Marshall continues to be the top target with 14 receptions for 246 yards and three TDs in the last two games.

                            LINE: Chicago opened -3 but the line has been bet down to -2.5. The total has dropped 2.5 points to 44.
                            WEATHER: There is a 74 percent chance of rain and wind blowing N across the length of the field at 20 mph.
                            COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (+3.0) + Chicago (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -8.5
                            TRENDS:

                            * Ravens are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams with winning records.
                            * Bears are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
                            * Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

                            Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 42)

                            Coming out of its bye week, Cleveland will match its win total from last season with one more victory. What makes that even more impressive is that the Browns are on their third starting quarterback, Jason Campbell, who has recorded the team’s highest passer ratings of the season in his first two starts. Cleveland can sweep the season series for the first time since 2002 with a win.

                            Quarterback Andy Dalton has come under fire after throwing a combined six interceptions in the two overtime losses. Despite the setbacks, Cincinnati is still in control of its fate with four of its final six games at home, where it is undefeated this season. Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green, who had seven catches for 51 yards in the first meeting, has five consecutive 100-yard receiving games.

                            LINE: Cincinnati has held as a 6-point fave, with the total currently 42.
                            WEATHER: There is a 78 percent chance of thunderstorms with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.
                            COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+3.0) + Cincinnati (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -9
                            TRENDS:

                            * Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six November games.
                            * Bengals are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games vs. the AFC North.
                            * Underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

                            Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-9.5, 41.5)

                            Quarterback Terrelle Pryor's inconsistent campaign continued in the loss to the Giants as he struggled to an 11-for-26 performance with 122 yards and an interception. Pryor, who is listed as questionable with a knee ailment and did not practice Wednesday, has thrown five interceptions with no touchdowns in the last three weeks. Rookie Matt McGloin, who came off the bench in a loss to Philadelphia on Nov. 3, took the first-team snaps in practice.

                            As its season has fallen on hard times, Houston's roster continues to take a form vastly different than the one many thought could contend in the AFC. Safety Ed Reed, a nine-time Pro Bowler who was expected to be one of the leaders of a standout defense, was released Tuesday after calling out the coaching in the loss to the Cardinals, and star running back Arian Foster was placed on season-ending injured reserve due to nagging back issues.

                            LINE: The Texans opened -7 and are now -9.5. The total has dropped from 43 to 41.5.
                            WEATHER: N/A
                            COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) - Houston (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -5
                            TRENDS:

                            * Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. the AFC.
                            * Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.
                            * Over is 7-3 in Houston's last 10 games.

                            Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 41)

                            Arizona is ranked just 24th in rushing (93.6) and that has meant an over-reliance on quarterback Carson Palmer, who has thrown at least one interception in every game and has 15 overall. Rookie Andre Ellington has shown the ability to juice up the sagging running game with 209 yards over the last two games and an impressive 7.2-yard average. Cornerback Patrick Peterson has a team-leading three interceptions.

                            Jacksonville’s defense allows 388.9 yards per game and could be without leading tackler Paul Posluszny (88 stops) after the standout middle linebacker suffered a concussion against Tennessee. Making matters worse is that backup LaRoy Reynolds was suspended four games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs, which forces the Jaguars to start roster-filler Russell Allen, who last played in the middle in 2009.

                            LINE: The Jags opened as a 6-point dog but are now +9.5.. The total is up a half-point to 41.
                            WEATHER: Wind will be blowing diagonally out of the southeast at 10 mph.
                            COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+1.0) - Jacksonville (+8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -4
                            TRENDS:

                            * Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
                            * Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
                            * Under is 7-1 in Jacksonville's last eight home games.

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                            • #15
                              Sunday's NFL Week 11 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action
                              Covers.com

                              San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)

                              San Diego is in the midst of stretch of four out of five on the road and dropped the lone home game last week to the Denver Broncos 28-20. The Chargers fell behind early in that one and never recovered, allowing Peyton Manning to pass for 330 yards and four touchdowns in a scene that is becoming common for a pass defense that ranks near the bottom of the league.

                              Miami is down two offensive linemen with Jonathan Martin and alleged tormentor Richie Incognito away from the team and that loss was felt in the running game on Monday, when the Dolphins managed a total of two yards on 14 carries. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was sacked twice on the team’s final possession. The second-year signal caller has taken 37 sacks this season - the most in the NFL.

                              LINE: Miami is a 1-point dog with the total set at 45.5.
                              WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 11 mph.
                              COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (0) + Miami (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Chargers -1
                              TRENDS:

                              * Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
                              * Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
                              * Under is 9-0 in the last nine meetings.

                              Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-12, 45)

                              Reigning NFL MVP Adrian Peterson leads the league with nine rushing touchdowns and his 87.3 yards per game on the ground rank third. He rushed for 182 yards and two TDs on 17 carries in a 30-20 loss at Seattle last November. Wide receiver Jerome Simpson, who leads the team with 491 receiving yards, is likely to play despite an arrest on suspicion of drunken driving last weekend.

                              Seattle, which increased its NFC West lead to 2 1/2 games with a rout at Atlanta last week, is going for its sixth win in a row and its 13th consecutive victory at home. The Seahawks are one of the NFL’s most balanced teams, ranking in the top six in both total defense (289 yards allowed per game) and scoring (26.5 points). Adding returning receiver Percy Harvin to the mix should make the offense even more dangerous.

                              LINE: Seattle opened as a 13.5-point fave but the line has been bet down to -12. The total is 45.
                              WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 42 percent chance of showers.
                              COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+5.5) + Seattle (-7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seattle -15.5
                              TRENDS:

                              * Vikings are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win.
                              * Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. NFC opponents.
                              * Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Seattle.

                              San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 48)

                              San Francisco's offense has played at one extreme or the other, topping 30 points in all six wins and being held to single digits in all three losses. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick's receiving corps is getting healthier, as Mario Manningham played last week and Michael Crabtree (Achilles) has returned to practice and is eligible to come off the reserve list.

                              New Orleans' high-powered offense keeps rolling along despite nagging injuries to star tight end Jimmy Graham. Rookie receiver Kenny Stills has become a key part of the offense with four TD receptions in the past four games. One cause for concern is the defense's recent drop-off in takeaways - after forcing 15 turnovers in the first seven games, the Saints haven't forced any in the past two.

                              LINE: The Saints opened -3 and are now -3.5, with the total up a half-point to 48.
                              WEATHER: N/A
                              COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-5.5) + New Orleans (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -3.5
                              TRENDS:

                              * 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. teams with winning home records.
                              * Saints are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games.
                              * Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.

                              Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-4, 42)

                              Green Bay was atop its division following a four-game winning streak but quarterback Aaron Rodgers hurt his collarbone in a Monday night showdown against Chicago - the latest and most damaging in a spate of injuries that has ravaged the roster. Backup Seneca Wallace went down in the first quarter of last week's 27-13 home loss to Philadelphia, prompting the NFL debut of Scott Tolzien, who threw for 280 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.

                              The biggest reasons for New York's turnaround have been cutting down on turnovers and a revival of a defense that surrendered an average of more than 34 points through the first six games but has permitted a total of 34 in the last three wins. Quarterback Eli Manning was a turnover machine during the season-opening skid, tossing 15 of his 16 interceptions and losing four fumbles, but he has been picked off only once during the current winning streak.

                              LINE: New York opened as high as -8 but has settled in at -4. The total is currently 42..
                              WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with overcast skies.
                              COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (+4.5) - New York (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.5
                              TRENDS:

                              * Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
                              * Giants are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 11.
                              * Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

                              Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 49)


                              Despite its perfect record, Kansas City has been the target of criticism for a perceived soft schedule - none of its opponents currently have a winning record - and the fact that four of the last five wins came against teams playing a backup at quarterback. The Chiefs have had a string of close calls but their defense has yet to allow more than 17 points while scoring six defensive touchdowns and ranking sixth in passing yards allowed at 208.3 per game.

                              Peyton Manning tops the league in passing yards (3,249), touchdowns (33) and passer rating (121.0) while tossing only six interceptions in leading Denver's high-powered offense to a league-high 41.2 points per game. The Broncos were held under 30 points for the first time in last week's 28-20 win at San Diego as Manning threw for 330 yards and four TDs before aggravating a right ankle injury in the waning minutes.

                              LINE: Denver is currently a 7.5-point fave with the total dipping from 51 to 49.
                              WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s.
                              COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-4.5) + Denver (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -6.5
                              TRENDS:

                              * Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. the NFC West.
                              * Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine November games.
                              * Over is 12-3-1 in Denver's last 16 games following an ATS win.

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