Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

week 8

Collapse
X
Collapse
 
  • Page of 2
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
Previous 1 2 template Next
  • #1

    week 8

    Get started here, been busy with NBA the last while because that's where the moneys made.




    As I've mentioned return to the mean is inevitable and anyone with any interest in this info can see favs storming back to 45% after being at 30% back in week 2. The windows closing !
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: week 8

    how about just betting home teams rest of the way ..think you're getting a little auto-value with this considering how bad they've been doing?
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: week 8

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: week 8

        Your thinking they're going to go the other way bleeker with some added value in the lines right. Now may be the time to hit them I figure as well until they get close to 50% anyways kinda how the favs roared back.

        Something I left here last week was that query that was 17-3-1 (https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...output=summary) which went 1-2 last week to go now to 18-5-1 is still relevant in some ways as it could easily be 18-3-3 depending where you got your lines from but the database is 18-5-1. Anyways it picks 5 games this weekend all AD's of course and I'm thinking this is a perfect spot for some things to fall in line with this trend regressing and the HF's catching up which makes this two good bits of info to consider

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: week 8



          These are the 5 games, can you see any you like ? Not sure of seeing any extra value here as they're all pretty hefty lines
          Last edited by Thomas; 10-23-2019, 07:11 PM.

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: week 8

            Only adjusted the line a bit and got 11-1 ATS...

            https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
            "The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: week 8

              I really think you just go in blindly and play them all..departure point is probably the biggest issue
              _______________________________________________
              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: week 8

                Very nice Jack !

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: week 8

                  Here's a good one from killersports video o/u play of the week

                  The SDQL OU Query of the Week for week 8 of the NFL is now available at youtube's SDQL University. It involves the Green Bay Packers off a home game in which Aaron Rodgers rushed for fewer than 32 yards. 20-0 O/U


                  team=Packers and Aaron Rodgers:p:RY<32 and p:H and oA(sacks)>0 and date>=20161030


                  PROOF

                  I LIKE THIS PLAY

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: week 8

                    Thursday Night Football dd home Favs are 11-0 su and 9-2 ats since '08

                    day=Thursday and HF and season>=2008 and line<=-10 and start time>1650

                    https://killersports.com/nfl/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                    I added in a start time to eliminate the thanksgiving day games, I think that's right and leaving those games in there the record is 14-1 su and 11-4 ats

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: week 8

                      Washington 1sth 10.5 -117

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: week 8

                        Had no time before but my pp/100 formula was telling me 24-11 on a 4 game rolling avg and that's purely because of the 9-0 game last week as that skewed the numbers. So I went STD and tossed the good and bad games for each team that gave me 28-16. I think the value lies with the Skins and I decided to play the 1sth at 10, way too many points in my opinion
                        Last edited by Thomas; 10-24-2019, 08:35 PM.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: week 8

                          Reference post 4 above

                          We discussed some add ins for this query Shaun (my database buddy) like me p:H 14-2 now

                          https://tinyurl.com/y6g9ksqc


                          and you added op:H 12-2 now

                          https://tinyurl.com/y3atvbr6


                          and jumperjack added in line greater than 5 which is 11-1-1 now

                          https://tinyurl.com/yy8kyz32


                          combine them and you get 9-0 now

                          https://tinyurl.com/y4xhw8qu


                          A little back fitted I guess but the combined one does break it down to 3 plays week 8, Broncos, Jets, Browns
                          Last edited by Thomas; 10-26-2019, 11:28 AM.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Re: week 8

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: week 8

                              Comment

                              Previous 1 2 template Next
                              Working...
                              X