NFL Plays Week 4 - Comp Play WINNER

[jumperjack]

19-16 for the season in the NFL (+$285). This week's card has been completed and already sent by e-mail. Anybody interested can get 4 week's of plays for $125 or get this week's plays for $40. I accept Venmo and Paypal, both using this e-mail jump1961jack@yahoo.com



Comp Play
$300 New England/Buffalo under 42.5 $WINNER$ (+300)

[Chamblin]

Re: NFL Plays Week 4 - Comp Play up

[junior713]

Re: NFL Plays Week 4 - Comp Play up

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 4 - Comp Play up

Kicked the week off with a play on my Packers....

$300 Green Bay -3.5 (-117) Grabbed the cheap half point @5Dimes. This is not my usual contrarian play, but too many fundamental capping reasons to take Green Bay here. Really short number here considering Green Bay is by far the better defensive team. Philadelphia's beat up secondary has allowed more passing yards than all but 3 NFL teams. Green Bay pass D is 5th in yards allowed. Short week in general favors the home team in these Thursday games. Next, the health of these 2 teams is on opposite ends of the spectrum. Newly acquired WR DeSean Jackson will likely be out again, in the only game Philly won he dominated and is a much needed deep threat for the Eagles. Without his threat defenses contract and can stop shorter routes more easily...that also hurts the running game. Jeffrey is supposedly playing, he is also banged up nursing a calf injury. My own experience with that injury tells me he will either be babying it while he plays, or he will go hard and aggravate it again. He probably is a non-factor this week. Two Def tackles (Malik Jackson & Tim Jernigan) expected to start and be big contributors are also out. Fletcher Cox is coming off surgery and has been a non-factor so far after being a huge disruptive factor in the past. All these things have made the Eagles pass rush almost non-existent (2 sacks in 3 games) and they have been forced to blitz way more than they want. If they blitz Rodgers they will pay dearly, maybe not every time, but enough times that big passing plays will happen. Green Bay meanwhile is almost injury free. Green Bay has covered the spread in all 3 and Philly has zero point spread covers. Week 4 teams that are 3-0 ATS are 10-0 ATS against 0-3 ATS teams going back 39 years. Unbeaten teams in week 4 are 20-5 ATS in non-division games against an opponent off a non-division game. LOSER (-351)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 4 - Comp Play up

The Packers' inability to stop the run looks like a recurring problem, very troubling moving forward. Can't run the ball either, 2 miserable 1st and goals in the last few minutes=ZERO POINTS.

[Thomas]

Re: NFL Plays Week 4 - Comp Play up

Yes Jack that was a little troubling wasn't it, jeez. I'm not sold on the pack myself at this point as they really haven't done much to get excited about all things considered. The advance line of Dallas -4 hasn't moved at all to this point and stats will support that offering if Dallas puts in a good game against the saints. But it would seem the line maker sees the same thing I do with that advance opener barring injuries or a clunker from the boys. I've got my eye on this game....

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 4 - Comp Play up

Early games I got these plays going...


$500 Washington +3 (-116) NFL Play of the Week I absolutely love the set-up for this game. Giants rookie QB came in to save the day against Tampa Bay and Washington looked about as bad as they could last night on MNF. I have mentioned many times in past years how I love playing on teams off horrible MNF performances. The public sees that game and auto-fade them their next game. I see a desperate Redskins' team coming off playing the leagues best defense stepping down in class to play against the leagues worst. I don't know how often the Giants will be favored this season, but we will likely be playing against them every time. LOSER (-580)
$400 L.A. Chargers/Miami under 45 (-115) Same winning angle we used to cash when the Patriots met the Dolphins. Going to keep hammering it all season. Big home dogs (+ more than 8) have gone under 44 out of the last 53. The road team knows they have an "easy" road game and don't want to "screw it up" That leads to conservative play calling. Also many of these end up being blowouts, teams let up offensively. The Chargers NEED a win, they fit the "just get a win and get out of town" mindset like a glove. This should go down, I see it settling on 43. $WINNER$ (+400)
$400 Oakland +7 (-115) $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Detroit +7 (-133) The books clearly don't want to post 7 here, so that is the number we want. Very heavily bet game, and THE MOST LOPSIDEDLY BET GAME ON THE BOARD! Despite that action the books have nudged this line lower than it was 3 days ago. The Lions' win over the Eagles showed a lot to me, this Detroit team has a lot of heart. Stafford is very capable of putting up points here, the Chiefs defense is not that great. They beat Baltimore last week in a "showdown" type of game, this is a letdown spot for Kansas City against a "flying under the radar" Lions' team. Detroit beat the Chargers here just 2 weeks ago, a team many think can possibly beat KC for the division. I look at the board and see 4 games the books will get teased to death, Patriots, Baltimore, Indianapolis and this one. "Squares" love those 6.5-7.5 point faves teased down to near pick 'em. I am telling you right now, one of those 4 teams will lose SU Sunday to blow up all those teasers & money-line parlays. This is my pick for that SU upset win. I think a little sprinkle on Detroit @+240 is not a bad idea at all. $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 New England/Buffalo under 42.5 $WINNER$ (+300)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 4 - Comp Play WINNER

Afternoon games just have these 2 totals...

$300 Tampa Bay/L.A. Rams under 50.5 (-107) LOSER (-321)
$300 Minnesota/Chicago under 38 $WINNER$ (+300)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 4 - Comp Play WINNER

This was my play tonight...

$400 New Orleans +2.5 Dallas has looked great against what can only be called one of the easiest 1st 3 games ever. Miami and Washington are both horrible and the Giants are the worst defense in the NFL. After running that gauntlet the media is ready to crown them. Before the season started many of those same people were questioning if the Cowboys might or might not make the playoffs. These 2 teams met last year in Dallas and the Saints were -7! If you use 3 points for HF advantage the difference between that line and this one is 15.5 points!! New Orleans just passed a huge test on the road, beating a very tough Seattle team at one of the toughest venues in the league. Based on line value alone this game is the strongest of the season. Obviously Bridgewater is a variable that needs to be accounted for. He played pretty good last week and should play even better in his first ever start in a home game for the Saints.$WINNER$ (+400)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 4 - Comp Play WINNER

Finished the week with this play tonight...

$300 Cincinnati +4.5 (-118) LOSER (-354)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 4 - Comp Play WINNER

6-4 for the week (+$494) and 25-20 for the season in the NFL (+$779)

[Chamblin]

Re: NFL Plays Week 4 - Comp Play WINNER