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note: historically game 15 is the lowest scoring week of the season at 46% overs the since 1990. Overs ruled in 2016 but the other seasons since 2010 produced a combined 34-59-3 o/u with 11-24-2 for division games. AFC home teams are 12-32-3 o/u
OPPOSE week 15 7-7 favs off SUATS loss playing a team with 3+ wins (1-18 = play on JAX) = not lost since 1995
PLAY ON Dec home dogs playing decent pass defense L3 weeks (65-26 = on TB, on TEN)
UNDER teams off bad rush defense game where they were blown out and gained few first downs (5-48 o/u = NYG under)
OPPOSE and UNDER home teams that allowed 31+ in b2b games playing nondiv (12-24 / 7-29 o/u = play on JAX and under)
OPPOSE away team allowing 17 or less in b2b wins and still not favored by >TD (18-43 = play on 49ers)
UNDER big away fav won 7+ LY (3-25 o/u = LAR under)
UNDER 2nd meeting of season after scoring 34+ in first meeting (11-38 o/u = CLE under)
PLAY ON 2nd meeting of season lost away by >7 first time (51-18 = on OAK)
UNDER off away, won 11+ LY, and opponent has more wins (5-32 o/u = PHI under)
OPPOSE home fav off away dog loss, scoring <=14 avg L3 weeks, opponent terrible away team (2-28 = on TB)
OPPOSE fav allowed 37+ while scoring <20 and playing nonelite team (42-79 = play on JAX)
OVER away that won 11+ LY off home game vs team played MNF (28-3 o/u = PIT over)
PLAY ON conf team >19 ppg margin worse than opponent (69-13 = on ARI)
OPPOSE teams off a close win as a 10+ dog (10-35 = play on HOU)
UNDER grass nondiv off away fav game allowing 360+ (7-48 o/u = HOU under)
OPPOSE div home team off close div home loss (11-28 = play on ATL)
PLAY ON 10+ win favs that won at least 6 home games (44-15 = nothing this week but active on KC and LAR next week)
note: 12-1-1 L5 years (13-1 SU) win by 30-14 avg
UNDER home fav off fav game with 2+ turnovers and poor rushing (5-39 o/u = LAR under)
UNDER 2nd meeting, scored 28+ first meeting (68-127 o/u = ATL under, LAR under, CLE under)
OVER total <49 and on a 4+ game under streak, just scored <13 (115-73 o/u = TB over)
OVER off a win preceded by two blowout losses (52-24 o/u = WAS over, MIN over)
OVER off a home thur loss that went over (35-9 o/u = KC over) = 1-4 o/u L5
PLAY ON non div dog off shutout loss and playing <60 WP opponent (36-7 = on NYG)
PLAY ON dog lost h2h last meeting allowing 28-35 (47-19 = on CIN)
PLAY ON big fav vs avg opponent off a home dog win (65-30 = on NO)
note: 89-7 SU, 85-11 on 6-pt teaser lie, 92-4 on 10-pt teaser line)
PLAY ON away with b2b no turnovers late in season (78-38 = on HOU) 6-1 L7
PLAY ON medium away dog, losing team, off away loss (88-45 = on TB)
UNDER elite team playing home off dog win and opponent not off dog win (61-104 o/u = LAC under)
OPPOSE winning team off home dog win but loss before that, facing elite team (9-23 = oppose PIT)
PLAY ON big away dog off away dog win as <7 dog (45-16 = on WAS)
PLAY ON teams that went under by 28+ (53-22 = on NO, on CAR)
OPPOSE home fav off close away nondiv loss vs nondiv opponent off away loss (25-86 = play on TB)
OPPOSE home favs or small dogs that are terrible 1st half teams (106-177 = play on DEN)
- last game in OAK?
UNDER team off away blowout win that went under vs opponent avg <26 ppg (19-62 o/u = TEN under) = 1-17 o/u L18
UNDER big favs off poor game as a fav (43-106 o/u = LAR under) = 5-45 o/u L50
OVER big home nondiv fav vs team with poor time of possession and mostly 1st downs through the air (45-13 o/u = DAL over)
OPPOSE turf away team off home game committing 3+ more penalties than YTD avg (6-40 = play on INDY)
PLAY ON turf home team off great running game home win (50-14 = on INDY) 24-2 L26
PLAY ON huge favs in final 2 weeks of season if not won 14 games and are at least 3 games better than opponent (46-21 = on LAR, on NE)
OPPOSE .500 favs that aren't on 3+ game winning streak (11-37 = play on HOU, on JAX)
OPPOSE week 15 7-7 favs off SUATS loss playing a team with 3+ wins (1-18 = play on JAX) = not lost since 1995
PLAY ON Dec home dogs playing decent pass defense L3 weeks (65-26 = on TB, on TEN)
UNDER teams off bad rush defense game where they were blown out and gained few first downs (5-48 o/u = NYG under)
OPPOSE and UNDER home teams that allowed 31+ in b2b games playing nondiv (12-24 / 7-29 o/u = play on JAX and under)
OPPOSE away team allowing 17 or less in b2b wins and still not favored by >TD (18-43 = play on 49ers)
UNDER big away fav won 7+ LY (3-25 o/u = LAR under)
UNDER 2nd meeting of season after scoring 34+ in first meeting (11-38 o/u = CLE under)
PLAY ON 2nd meeting of season lost away by >7 first time (51-18 = on OAK)
UNDER off away, won 11+ LY, and opponent has more wins (5-32 o/u = PHI under)
OPPOSE home fav off away dog loss, scoring <=14 avg L3 weeks, opponent terrible away team (2-28 = on TB)
OPPOSE fav allowed 37+ while scoring <20 and playing nonelite team (42-79 = play on JAX)
OVER away that won 11+ LY off home game vs team played MNF (28-3 o/u = PIT over)
PLAY ON conf team >19 ppg margin worse than opponent (69-13 = on ARI)
OPPOSE teams off a close win as a 10+ dog (10-35 = play on HOU)
UNDER grass nondiv off away fav game allowing 360+ (7-48 o/u = HOU under)
OPPOSE div home team off close div home loss (11-28 = play on ATL)
PLAY ON 10+ win favs that won at least 6 home games (44-15 = nothing this week but active on KC and LAR next week)
note: 12-1-1 L5 years (13-1 SU) win by 30-14 avg
UNDER home fav off fav game with 2+ turnovers and poor rushing (5-39 o/u = LAR under)
UNDER 2nd meeting, scored 28+ first meeting (68-127 o/u = ATL under, LAR under, CLE under)
OVER total <49 and on a 4+ game under streak, just scored <13 (115-73 o/u = TB over)
OVER off a win preceded by two blowout losses (52-24 o/u = WAS over, MIN over)
OVER off a home thur loss that went over (35-9 o/u = KC over) = 1-4 o/u L5
PLAY ON non div dog off shutout loss and playing <60 WP opponent (36-7 = on NYG)
PLAY ON dog lost h2h last meeting allowing 28-35 (47-19 = on CIN)
PLAY ON big fav vs avg opponent off a home dog win (65-30 = on NO)
note: 89-7 SU, 85-11 on 6-pt teaser lie, 92-4 on 10-pt teaser line)
PLAY ON away with b2b no turnovers late in season (78-38 = on HOU) 6-1 L7
PLAY ON medium away dog, losing team, off away loss (88-45 = on TB)
UNDER elite team playing home off dog win and opponent not off dog win (61-104 o/u = LAC under)
OPPOSE winning team off home dog win but loss before that, facing elite team (9-23 = oppose PIT)
PLAY ON big away dog off away dog win as <7 dog (45-16 = on WAS)
PLAY ON teams that went under by 28+ (53-22 = on NO, on CAR)
OPPOSE home fav off close away nondiv loss vs nondiv opponent off away loss (25-86 = play on TB)
OPPOSE home favs or small dogs that are terrible 1st half teams (106-177 = play on DEN)
- last game in OAK?
UNDER team off away blowout win that went under vs opponent avg <26 ppg (19-62 o/u = TEN under) = 1-17 o/u L18
UNDER big favs off poor game as a fav (43-106 o/u = LAR under) = 5-45 o/u L50
OVER big home nondiv fav vs team with poor time of possession and mostly 1st downs through the air (45-13 o/u = DAL over)
OPPOSE turf away team off home game committing 3+ more penalties than YTD avg (6-40 = play on INDY)
PLAY ON turf home team off great running game home win (50-14 = on INDY) 24-2 L26
PLAY ON huge favs in final 2 weeks of season if not won 14 games and are at least 3 games better than opponent (46-21 = on LAR, on NE)
OPPOSE .500 favs that aren't on 3+ game winning streak (11-37 = play on HOU, on JAX)
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