Monday Night Football Betting. 11/11

[TheGame]

Monday Night Football betting: Dolphins at Buccaneers

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 41)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the NFL's poster boys for Team Discord for much of the season, but the Miami Dolphins have seized that mantle in the midst of an explosive soap opera developing in South Beach. The Dolphins will try to overcome a highly publicized rift by offensive linemen Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin when they visit the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. “The whole thing is kind of mind-blowing to me," Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill said.

The Dolphins will have 10 days between games since a stunning 22-20 overtime victory against Cincinnati that snapped a four-game losing streak, but new developments continue to emerge in the ongoing saga in which Martin left the team after accusing Incognito of repeated bullying. Tampa Bay is dealing with another gut-wrenching loss, blowing a 21-point lead in Seattle last week. Coach Greg Schiano has been on the hot seat amid reports that several players are unhappy with his demanding style

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Tampa Bay opened at +3.5 home dogs, but have been bet up to +1. The total has move up slightly from 40.5 to 41.

WEATHER: Temperature will be in the mid 70s with a 7 percent chance of rain.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+3.0) - Tampa Bay (7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -1

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-4): Incognito has been suspended and Martin is on leave while the league goes forward with an investigation, leaving the players to deal with the fallout while attempting to stay in the postseason hunt. The most pressing on-field question for Miami is how to overcome the loss of 40 percent of an offensive line that has already allowed Tannehill to be a sacked a league-high 35 times. The Dolphins may have salvaged their season by rallying to beat Cincinnati after blowing a 14-point second-half lead for the second consecutive week. Running back Lamar Miller is coming off his first 100-yard day for Miami, which is averaging 156.5 yards rushing in the past two games.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (0-8): Tampa Bay's 27-24 overtime loss in Seattle was its fourth defeat by three or fewer points this season, prompting Schiano to say his squad did a lot of "things we can build off." Running back Doug Martin, who rushed for 1,454 yards as a rookie last season, has been sidelined with a torn labrum since Oct. 20 and could be headed to injured reserve. Rookie Mike James has been a capable replacement, running for a career-high 158 yards in last week's loss while rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has thrown five touchdown passes and zero interceptions over his past three games.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in thier last four Monday night games.
* Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Dolphins last seven games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four games following a straight up loss.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Dolphins DE Cameron Wake had three sacks against the Bengals, including a game-winning safety in OT.

2. The Buccaneers rank 31st in scoring (15.5 points) and total offense (304.3 yards) per game.

3. Miami hasn't won in Tampa Bay since October 1988.

[TheGame]

NFL

Week 10

Dolphins (4-4) @ Buccaneers (0-8)—Not much to choose from here; winless Tampa led 21-0 last week in Seattle, still found way to lose- their four home losses are by 2-3-11-18 points. Bucs were outscored 80-26 in second half of last six games. Miami lost starting LT/LG after hazing debacle, Dolphin coaches are under fire, losing four of last five games after 3-0 start; they’ve been outscored 84-36 in second half of last five games. Fish ran ball for 156-157 yards in last two games, but now LG Incognito (suspended) is also out, so whole squad has had week full of distractions. Teams coming off Thursday night games are 12-4 vs spread in next game, 5-3 if they won the Thursday game. Home teams won four of last five series games; Dolphins lost three of four visits here, with win back in ’88. In eight games, covering 16 drives for both sides, Bucs have been outscored 27-3 on first drive of each half, so Tampa coaches are being outcoached. NFL-wide, non-divisional home underdogs are 19-14 vs spread. Last four Buccaneer games and five of last seven Miami games went over the total.

[TheGame]

NFL

Week 10

Trend Report


Monday, November 11

8:40 PM
MIAMI vs. TAMPA BAY
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home

[TheGame]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 10

Monday, November 11

Miami at Tampa Bay, 8:40 ET
Miami: 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better
Tampa Bay: 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in November games

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Monday, November 11

MIAMI (4 - 4) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 8) - 11/11/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[TheGame]

Dolphins try to keep Bucs winless Monday night
by Zach Cohen

Kickoff: Monday, 8:40 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -2.5, Total: 41

The Buccaneers will be going for their first win of the NFL season when they host the Dolphins on Monday night.

Tampa Bay jumped out to a 21-0 first quarter lead in Seattle last week and was still up 24-7 in the third quarter, but blew the lead and eventually lost 27-24 in overtime. Miami, on the other hand, defeated the Bengals on a game-winning overtime safety on Halloween night. However, all the news out of south Florida has been the alleged hazing incident of OG Richie Incognito, which forced OT Jonathan Martin to check into a hospital. Despite the distraction, the Dolphins are still playing .500 football this season while the Buccaneers appear to be heading towards a very early draft pick in 2014. Tampa Bay is only 2-6 ATS this season, but is 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) against Miami since 1997. But over the past three seasons, the Bucs are 1-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three out of their past four games, and 4-16 ATS after two or more consecutive losses during that same timeframe. On the bright side for Tampa Bay, the club is 50-31 ATS (62%) in November games since 1992. The Buccaneers will still be without top RB Doug Martin (shoulder), who is out indefinitely after tearing his labrum, while both teams have key wide receivers out for the year in Miami's Brandon Gibson (knee) and Tampa's Mike Williams (hamstring).

Miami improved to 4-4 SU with last week’s overtime victory over the Bengals. After gaining 156 rushing yards in New England, the Dolphins ran the ball effectively for a second straight week versus Cincinnati, racking up 157 yards on the ground behind 105 yards on 16 carries (6.6 YPC) from Lamar Miller. However, with the absence of the two starting linemen involved in the hazing incident (OG Richie Incognito and OT Jonathan Martin), the Miami O-Line is not in great shape right now. QB Ryan Tannehill must do a better job against the Buccaneers than what he's done in the past five games, completing 57% of his passes for 1,150 yards (6.3 YPA), 7 TD and 7 INT. Last week, Tannehill was very accurate (71.4% completions) and threw no interceptions, but he also didn’t throw any touchdown passes while finishing with just 208 passing yards. The Dolphins need to do a better job of moving the ball as their 28th-ranked offense (315 total YPG) must be able to sustain more drives and improve its 28:30 time of possession (6th-worst in league). Miami has been quite effective in the red zone though with a 64.0% efficiency rate (6th-best in NFL). The Dolphins defense has also been mediocre this year, allowing 252.3 yards per game through the air (22nd in NFL) and 116.5 yards per game on the ground (21st in NFL). However, star DE Cameron Wake showed that he's finally healthy last week with a monster performance of three sacks, a forced fumble and the game-winning safety in overtime. They will need him to provide a consistent pass rush to shut down a Tampa Bay offense that has struggled all season.

After blowing a 24-7 lead with just over 20 minutes to play versus the Seahawks, the Buccaneers are still searching for their first win of the season. Their strength is on defense where they allow just 240.5 passing yards per game (15th in NFL) and 107.5 rushing yards per game (13th in NFL). Backed by a good secondary led by shutdown CB Darrelle Revis, the Bucs defense has not been the root of their problems. The issues come on offense where the team averages only 15.5 PPG and 304 total YPG, which both rank second-worst in the NFL. Rookie QB Mike Glennon leads a passing attack that averages just 196.8 yards per game (2nd-worst in NFL) on a league-low 5.26 net yards per attempt. But Glennon has been a major upgrade from Josh Freeman, as the rookie has completed 60.3% of his passes for 1,165 yards, 8 TD and just 3 INT. With RB Doug Martin out indefinitely, rookie RB Mike James has stepped up nicely, rushing for 158 yards on 28 carries (5.6 YPC) last week. This game is winnable for Tampa, but they must play mistake-free football like in Seattle when a +3 turnover margin nearly gave the 16-point underdogs a straight-up victory.

[TheGame]

Trend leans to Miami on MNF
VegasInsider.com

This week’s Monday Night Football matchup between Miami (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) and Tampa Bay (0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS) will receive extra attention this week and it’s certainly not for the two teams on the field

The Miami Dolphins will attempt to move past national headlines involving an alleged internal harassment between players, notably offensive linemen Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito. Martin has left the team for personal reasons and Incognito has been suspended indefinitely.

Looking to pile on Miami’s mess will be Tampa Bay, who is still searching for its first win of the season. The Buccaneers almost pulled off the biggest upset of the season last week but came up short to the Seahawks 27-24 as 16 ½-point road underdogs.

Combining the Bucs’ effort last week and the locker room issues for the Dolphins, some pundits are expecting Tampa Bay to capture its first victory of the season on Monday. That could easily happen but before you run to the betting counter and wager on Tampa Bay, make sure you’re aware of a very strong trend that’s been followed by many handicappers and bettors this season.

Play against any team in their “Next Game” after they played Seattle

If you’ve followed the above trend blindly, you would be looking at a 7-1 record both straight up and against the spread.

The only team to post a win after playing Seattle this season was Arizona, who defeated the Falcons 27-13 at home in Week 8.

Another common theme with the losses has been the points allowed by the teams who just faced the Seahawks. In the eight games this season, the teams have given up an average of 26.9 points per game in the next game.

Miami opened as a 3 ½-point road favorite against Tampa Bay and most betting shops have dropped the number to 2 ½ as of late Sunday.

Week 1 - Carolina vs. Seattle
Next Game: Panthers lost at Buffalo, 24-23

Week 2 - San Francisco at Seattle
Next Game: 49ers lost at home to Colts, 29-3

Week 3 – Jacksonville at Seattle
Next Game: Jaguars lost to Colts, 37-3

Week 4 – Houston vs. Seattle
Next Game: Texans lost at 49ers, 34-3

Week 5 – Indianapolis at Seattle
Next Game: Colts lost at Chargers, 19-9

Week 6 – Tennessee at Seattle
Next Game: Titans lost at home to 49ers, 31-17

Week 7 –Arizona vs. Seattle
Next Game: Cardinals defeated Falcons at home, 27-13

Week 8 –St. Louis vs. Seattle
Next Game: Rams lost at home to Titans, 28-21

Week 9 – Tampa Bay at Seattle
Next Game: TBD

[TheGame]

MNF - Dolphins at Buccaneers
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Sunshine State is usually a hot-bed for football, but not in the pro ranks this season. The Jaguars haven't won a game yet, while the Buccaneers have thrown away several chances at a victory. Tampa Bay looks to break through the win column for the first time on Monday night with a visit from Miami, who in spite of a 4-4 record, has its own off-the-field issues to deal with.

The Dolphins edged the Bengals last Thursday night, 22-20, becoming just the third team to ever win a game in overtime on a safety. Miami squandered a 14-point advantage for the second straight contest after falling apart at New England, but the Dolphins found a way to send the game to overtime against Cincinnati with a late field in regulation. Cameron Wake's sack of Bengals' quarterback Andy Dalton in the end zone snapped a four-game skid for the Dolphins, while cashing as three-point home underdogs.

Obviously the biggest storyline in the NFL this week surrounds the offensive line of the Dolphins and the alleged bullying tactics of guard Richie Incognito on tackle Jonathan Martin. Incognito is suspended indefinitely while this investigation continues, while Martin remains in California with a non-football related illness. The absence of those two linemen doesn't help quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has been sacked a league-high 35 times.

The Buccaneers have their own issues with a dreadful 0-8 record, while suffering the biggest meltdown of the season last Sunday. Tampa Bay jumped out to a 21-0 lead at Seattle, looking to hand the Seahawks their first home loss since the end of the 2011 season (11-game stretch). However, the Seahawks erased a 24-7 deficit by scoring the final 17 points of regulation, while Steven Hauschka's 27-yard field goal in overtime kept Seattle's home winning streak and Tampa Bay's winless season intact. The only silver-lining for the Bucs was easily covering as 16-point road underdogs for just their second ATS win of the season.

Surprisingly, the Dolphins have held their own on the highway this season, in spite of a 2-2 SU/ATS record. Miami won its first two contests at Cleveland and Indianapolis as short underdogs prior to the two defeats at New Orleans and New England. Obviously it's been a rough road slate for Joe Philbin's team, already facing three division leaders away from South Florida, but the Dolphins have been outscored 41-7 in the second half of the last two away defeats to the Saints and Patriots.

Greg Schiano's club may be winless, but that doesn't mean they are getting blown out every week. The Bucs have lost four games that have come down to the final two minutes against the Jets, Saints, Cardinals, and Seahawks. Tampa Bay has suffered three setbacks on walk-off field goals, while blowing a 10-0 fourth quarter advantage in a Week 4 home defeat to Arizona. Since Mike Glennon took over at quarterback for Josh Freeman, the former N.C. State standout has thrown eight touchdowns in five games, while not throwing an interception in the last three games.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says there's no reason to think the Bucs can't win on Monday, "If nothing else, the Bucs just demonstrated they can rise above the drama. Tampa Bay may have dumped its franchise quarterback, quit on its soon-to-be displaced head coach and lost multiple key players to injury, but it nearly went out and won in Seattle. Miami must demonstrate that it can rise above adversity, perhaps taking solace in taking the field in the midst of a nasty controversy with so many layers that it may ultimately tear the team apart. A loss to the Bucs would certainly accelerate that process, but a win would keep them right in step for that final AFC West playoff spot. We're about to see whether Philbin and his staff can be a galvanizing force and if Tannehill is strong enough to put the Dolphins on his shoulders and be the leader his team needs."

The last time these teams met in the regular season came back in 2009, when the Dolphins held off the Bucs, 25-23 as 10-point home favorites. None of the main skill position players from that game are presently with their respective team, so any statistics from that day don't mean much for Monday night's purposes. The Bucs have won each of the last two home meetings with the Dolphins since 1997, taking each game by double-digits. The Dolphins are currently listed as 2½-point road favorites, while the total sits at 41. The action gets started at 8:40 PM EST from Raymond James Stadium and can be seen on ESPN.