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  • NFL Betting Info. Week 10

    NFC News and Notes from Week 9
    By Teddy Covers
    Sportsmemo.com

    Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC thoughts and opinions from Week 9.

    Dallas Cowboys – Dallas had faced four top notch QB's this year heading into the game: Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford. All four threw for more than 400 yards against Monte Kiffin's defense. Here, Christian Ponder had consistent success throwing downfield. This defense just can't stop the pass, especially with DeMarcus Ware out again, negating any semblance of a pass rush. And there were no shortage of defensive breakdowns either – missed tackles, missed assignments and blown coverages.

    Not impressed with the offensive line play today one iota. The Vikings got pressure on Tony Romo all afternoon. They signed former pro bowl guard Brian Waters out of retirement a few weeks ago as a desperation move, but he couldn’t stay healthy; already on IR. Back-to-back sacks killed a red zone chance here, forcing Dan Bailey's legs to get points, not Romo's arm.

    The Cowboys completely gave up on the run, giving DeMarco Murray only four carries; with only eight rushing attempts on their 63 snaps. Dez Bryant had another on-field meltdown on a day where he had multiple drops. Terrence Williams poor route running was the key factor in a fourth quarter interception from Romo. Yes, the Cowboys currently have a tenuous hold on first place in the NFC East, but they’ve yet to beat an opponent with a winning record and their schedule toughens considerably down the stretch.

    St. Louis Rams – The Rams in this game make me want to quote Charles Dickens. “It was the best of times; it was the worst of times.” There were so many positives for Jeff Fisher’s squad here. The Rams ran the football effectively all afternoon for the second straight week against a solid stop unit, with Zac Stacy bulling his way to another 100+ yard game on the ground. The much maligned offensive line blew open holes for Stacy, and gave Kellen Clemens solid protection.

    Clemens was accurate and played mostly mistake free football; all you can ask from a backup QB. They scored touchdowns, not settling for field goals. Their pass rush was tremendous, forcing Jake Locker into numerous poor throws while notching four sacks. And coming off a disheartening loss on Monday Night, the Rams bounced back positively from adversity on several occasions, immediately responding to Tennessee touchdowns with TD drives of their own.

    But for all the positives, there were nearly as many negatives. For as good as the Rams were against the pass, they were awful against the run, allowing Chris Johnson to match his season total of six 10+ yard rushes in one game. They didn’t get a red zone stop all afternoon: four tries on defense, four touchdowns. Kicker Greg Zuerlein missed his first attempt from inside 50 yards all year; something that’s not supposed to happen in the home dome.

    Clemens lone big mistake came at the absolute worst time, fumbling the ball away deep in Rams’ territory with less than three minutes left in the game. And, for the second straight week, with a chance to score a late TD, the Rams crapped out after a promising drive got them in position to score. With the Colts, Bears, 49ers, Seahawks and Saints still ahead on their schedule, if the Rams can’t win on a day where they had so many positives, imagine what could happen on a day when they don’t play as well as they did here.

    Washington Redskins – Has any team in the NFL had worse special teams than the Redskins this year? First year special teams coach Keith Burns has seen everything go wrong, with his units allowing punt return touchdowns, kickoff return touchdowns, getting called for penalties every week – the works. Today, they allowed a pair of field goal blocks from a team that hadn’t blocked a field goal in eleven years; another shoddy showing.

    RG3 didn’t throw a touchdown or run for a touchdown, but it was his best game of the year; including that Bears game three weeks ago where he put up gaudy stats despite a bevy of mistakes. Griffin was accurate with his downfield throws. He was savvy when scrambling out of the pocket. He was gutsy, making huge plays on Washington’s game winning drive in overtime. He was at his best on third down – Washington converted a dozen third down tries on the afternoon. And he produced touchdowns on each of his last four red zone tries. It certainly helped that Alfred Morris looked great running the football today, his best game of the year too!

    Washington’s defense has talent, but they’ve been getting gashed all year. They didn’t force a three-and-out all afternoon. With the game on the line in the fourth quarter, they couldn’t get a stop. The mainstream media will be sure to highlight the ‘Skins goal line stand to save the game in the final seconds, but frankly, that was more about poor play calling and poor execution from the Chargers than it was about anything Washington’s defense did right.

    New Orleans Saints – This offense is clearly built for domes, not for outdoor venues. They were completely out of sync offensively early, using all three timeouts and getting a pair of delay of game penalties in the first quarter alone. And this high octane ‘can’t stop ‘em’ offense was held to just two field goals and one third down conversion after halftime, reminiscent of their road showing at Tampa Bay (only one offensive touchdown) and Chicago (also only two field goals in the second half).

    Jimmy Graham is pretty much an unstoppable receiving threat, with a Calvin Johnson type performance again here – get the ball near him and he’ll find a way to catch it. But he’s the only elite receiver on the team with Marques Colston unable to suit up and Darren Sproles knocked out of the game early with a concussion.

    The Saints came into the game with the worst yards per carry differential in the NFL; -1.4 yards per rush between what they gain and what they allow. Today it was even worse, with Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram combining for on 43 yards between them, while the Jets had three 25+ yard gainers on the ground as part of a 198 yard rushing afternoon. After their hot start in September, Rob Ryan’s defense seems to be getting worse by the week.

    Minnesota Vikings – The biggest difference between last year's playoff squad and this year's 1-7 bottom feeder has nothing to do with the Vikings offense. Yes, their quarterback play has generally been lousy, but guess what – Christian Ponder didn't exactly light up opposing defenses in 2012. And yes, Adrian Peterson hasn't come close to matching last year's record setting season, but it's not like AP has morphed into a second tier back in 2013. Both Ponder and Peterson enjoyed great games this week.

    Minnesota had a quality stop unit last year, holding foes under 20 points per game. This year, their D has allowed more than 30 points and 400 yards per game. Quite simply, they can't stop anybody. And that was on full display against Dallas. The Vikings struggled to get off the field on third downs. And with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, they dropped into a ridiculous three pass rusher ‘prevent’ type defense, allowing Tony Romo to pick them apart; a disheartening loss for a struggling team.

  • #2
    Is it time for NFL bettors to believe in Patriots?

    The 55-31 victory put the league on notice that New England is still one the most dominant teams in the NFL. It caught the attention of oddsmakers, who bumped the Patriots from 12/1 to 8/1 to win the Super Bowl after throttling the rival Steelers.


    “We were as high as 15-1 just last week, but we did see a bit of action at that number and lowered to 12-1 during the week,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com told Covers. “After yesterday’s convincing win we opened this morning at 10-1.”


    New England’s offense stalled to start the schedule, suffering injuries to key players, losing WR Wes Welker to free agency, and lacking its top two tight ends from 2012 – Rob Gronkowski recovering from surgery and Aaron Hernandez under investigation for murder.


    The Patriots puttered to a 4-0 start, averaging just over 22 points before getting slapped with a 13-6 loss to Cincinnati in Week 5. New England went from 8/1 to 10/1 following that loss and leapt to as high as 15/1 after an unimpressive win over Miami in Week 8.


    Now, New England is on the mend. It returned Gronkowksi in Week 7, with the Pro Bowl TE posting 146 yards and a scored against the Steelers Sunday, and the Patriots have WR Danny Amendola on the field after being slowed by injuries this season. Amendola reeled in 122 yards and a TD this weekend.


    While it seems like Brady and Bill Belichick are getting their groove back, oddsmakers aren’t sweating a surge from New England. According to Childs, there is no exposure on the Patriors’ Super Bowl futures and the book would be a winner if the Pats took home the Lombardi Trophy this February.


    “I think they’re still very unlikely to do much in the postseason,” says Childs. “They haven’t beat anyone, other than the Saints and that was at home and was short of a miracle win. The Pats, in my opinion, are very fortunate to be in the AFC East and still have a lot of work to do to make some real noise in the playoffs.”


    New England is enjoying a bye in Week 10 and then visits the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football in Week 11. The Patriots have four of their final seven games away from home, and are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season.

    Comment


    • #3
      NFL Football Trends - Season to Date

      Straight Up Trends (Won Loss Tie)

      Category Record Percent
      Away Teams 50-82-0 37.88%
      Home Teams 82-50-0 62.12%
      Favorites 92-40-0 69.70%
      Dogs 40-92-0 30.30%
      Away Favorites 30-20-0 60.00%
      Away Dogs 20-62-0 24.39%
      Home Favorites 62-20-0 75.61%
      Home Dogs 20-30-0 40.00%
      Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

      Category Record Percent
      Away Teams 58-71-3 44.96%
      Home Teams 71-58-3 55.04%
      Favorites 69-60-3 53.49%
      Dogs 60-69-3 46.51%
      Away Favorites 24-26-0 48.00%
      Away Dogs 34-45-3 43.04%
      Home Favorites 45-34-3 56.96%
      Home Dogs 26-24-0 52.00%
      Over vs. Under Trends

      Category Overs Percent Unders Percent
      Overtime Games 6 100.00% 0 0.00%
      Non-Overtime Games 68 54.40% 57 45.60%
      All Games 74 56.49% 57 43.51%

      Comment


      • #4
        Football Totals And Coaching Philosophies
        By Jim Feist
        Playbook.com

        There are many factors to examine when studying football totals. Defensive and offensive statistics need to be examined, of course. Some of the questions a good handicapper asks: Is there speed in the defensive secondary? Does a club have a one-dimensional offense? Do they prefer a powerful running game or wide-open passing attacks? What kind of weather conditions will there be?

        Another area that is correlated to totals is coaching philosophy. Coaches build their teams around a combination of the style they want to play, plus the personnel on the field. The Ravens, for example, have had an abundance of defensive talent the last decade with limited offense talent in many of those years. That imbalance isn't necessarily a bad thing, as they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in 2001 and 2013. During crunch time, the Ravens ended last year on a 4-2 run under the total, holding the Colts to 9 points and the Patriots to 13. During their other Super Bowl season, Baltimore was 13-7 "under" the total.

        Six years ago the Patriots had a record setting offense starting 10-2 over the total. They had an aggressive, attacking offense. However, QB Tom Brady was out in 2008 and they scaled back that offensive approach for inexperienced QB Matt Cassell. It was no surprise New England started 6-3 under the total.

        This year there is another version of the 2007 Patriots: the high octane passing attack of the Denver Broncos. Even before the season began Peyton Manning said he wanted to run the no-huddle more with the addition of WR Wes Welker joining Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Denver has done exactly that and oddsmakers have been challenged to make Bronco totals high enough, starting 7-0 over the total.

        Like Baltimore, the Jaguars under Jack Del Rio and Gus Bradley are another team that is making their living playing a bruising, physical defense, but is terrible offensively. The Jags are stuck with awful QB play and have had more under than overs. That's nothing new: Last year the Jags started 10-1 under the total!

        Former coaches such as Jimmy Johnson, Dick Vermeil and Bill Walsh had offensive philosophies that liked to spread the field. They were more like gunslingers in the old west, with wide-open attacks that were ready to score on every play. The Chiefs under Vermeil went 10-6 "over" the total in both 2003 and 2004.

        Conversely, some coaches prefer a conservative, ball control game plan, such as the 49ers, Chiefs and Raiders. The 49ers prefer the ball-control style, as do the Chiefs under new Coach Andy Reid and his safe, West Coast offense. Did you notice the Chiefs started this season 6-1 under?

        When teams with similar philosophies or strengths and weaknesses clash, the results with respect to totals can be predictable. We saw this in the opening game of the season when the Saints and Patriots met, a thrilling 30-27 New England win.

        Two years ago in the opener the Saints and Packers met. Ball control? Forget it. New Orleans had the edge in yards 477-399 with Drew Brees throwing for 419 yards and Aaron Rodgers for 312. Both QBs combined for 6 TDs and no picks in a 42-34 shootout.

        The Panthers, Chiefs, Vikings, Seahawks, Jets and Bengals have conservative offensive philosophies. Two of those teams met in the opener and the Seahawks beat Carolina 12-7 – under the total by 22 points!

        Aggressive, attacking offensive coaching staffs can be found on the Saints, Packers, Patriots, Eagles and Falcons. And it doesn't mean teams only play that way at home. The Chargers and Saints had coaching staffs that prefer uptempo, attacking styles when they met in London four years ago. The final tally? A 37-32 Saints' win, sailing way over the total. Coaches construct their game plans around the talent on the field and try to stamp their philosophy on the team, something to keep in mind when examining football totals.

        Comment


        • #5
          2-Minute Handicap
          Playbook.com

          Thursday, Nov 7

          Washington 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS Thursdays vs non div opp... 2-5 SUATS vs NFC North... 5-0 away w/ OU line 47 > pts
          MINNESOTA 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS off BB losses vs NFC East opp... 4-1 SUATS L5 HD's

          Sunday, November 10

          Jacksonvile Series: 4-1 L5... 5-0 away off DD ATS loss vs .500 > div opp
          TENNESSEE 5-0 vs opp w/rest... 0-8 as div HF's 6 > pts... 0-5-1 before Colts

          Philadelphia Series: 9-3 L 12... 9-0 off SUATS win vs opp off SUATS loss... 0-7 vs NFC North
          GREEN BAY 8-1 as favs < 10 pts after score 35 > pts... 8-1 vs < .500 opp in Games 9-12... 8-19-1 vs NFC East opp off SUATS win

          Buffalo 7-2 vs AFC North L3Y... 6-1 as non-div dog < 7 pts vs < .500 opp... 2-9 dogs off SU loss vs opp off ATS loss 14 > pts
          PITTSBURGH Series: 7-1 L8... 1-9 as favs < 7 pts in 1st of BB HG's

          Oakland 10-4-1 as dogs 7 < pts L2Y ... 1-5 as dogs 2 > pts vs opp w / rest... 1-5 vs NFC East... 2-8 as non-conf dogs 10 < pts off SUATS loss... 2-5 away vs east coast teams L2Y
          NY GIANTS 0-8-1 as favs in 1st of BB HG's... 0-7 home after allow 10< pts

          St. Louis 8-0 vs .666 > opp off SU win... Fisher: 9-3 vs .600 > opp
          INDIANAPOLIS 11-2 off SUATS div road win... 8-2 as non-conf favs < 10 pts

          Seattle 4-0 as non-div RF's > 6 pts vs < .500 opp... 8-4 A vs NFC South opp
          Atlanta 8-1 as dogs off SU loss... 0-15 as dogs > 3 pts off BB RG's

          Cinncinnati 6-0 as favs < 10 pts off SU fav loss... 0-6 as div RF's
          BALTIMORE Series: 5-2-1 L8... 5-2-1 as div dogs 5 < pts... 0-4-1 home vs div opp >.600

          Detroit 6-1 w/ rest vs > .500 opp... 0-7 vs opp w/revenge... 0-5 L5 as div RF's
          CHICAGO 5-1 after Monday game... 4-1 after Packers

          Carolina Series: 4-0 L4... 4-1 after Falcons... 0-6 as conf dogs 4 > pts in Games 9-12
          SAN FRANCISCO 6-1 w/rest... 1-8 home vs non-div opp off SUATS win

          Houston 3-1 after Colts... 2-8-1 vs NFC West opp
          ARIZONA 3-1-1 vs AFC South opp... 1-10 off DD ATS win vs < .500 opp

          Denver 10-2 w/rest vs .500 opp... 7-2 as RF's after score 35 > pts... 2-8 after score 35 > pts vs opp w/revenge
          SAN DIEGO Series: 1-3 L4H... 10-0 in div game w / OU line 48 > pts

          Dallas 4-1 as dogs vs NFC South… 0-5 O/U away w/O/U line 49 > pts…Garrett: 5-0 as dog > 4 pts
          NEW ORLEANS 14-5 SUATS off one los-exact

          Monday, November 4

          Miami 1-10 SU and 0-9-2 ATS away Mondays off win... 0-4 SUATS L4 Mondays... 1-8 as favs off SU dog win... 1-5 favs off Thursday game
          TAMPA BAY Series: 4-0 L4... 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS Monday HD... 0-8 home vs non-div opp off SUATS win... 0-4 SUATS L4 Mondays

          ABBREVIATIONS LEGEND: For the most part, results are presented in this order: Series, Good Results, Bad Results, Over/Under Totals and Coaches Results. All team and coaches results are Against The Spread and pertain to preseason - unless noted otherwise. (NOTE: * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation and/or line in this game). ATS = Against The Spread, SU = Straight Up, A = Away, H = Home, Dog = Underdog, Fav = Favorite, L = Last, N = Neutral. OVER/UNDER results in Over (first) / Under (second) sequence. Site Numbers (Home One, Home Two; Away One, Away Two) designate 1st or 2nd home or road games of preseason. Dual team or coaches results - Straight-Up and Against The Spread - are separated with a ' / '. Asterisk * = check team previous game for possible similar result.

          Comment


          • #6
            StatFox Super Situations

            DALLAS at NEW ORLEANS
            Play Against - Favorites (NEW ORLEANS) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game 89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

            SEATTLE at ATLANTA
            Play Against - Home underdogs vs. the money line (ATLANTA) off a road loss against a division rival, in November games 24-3 over the last 10 seasons. ( 88.9% | 0.0 units )

            HOUSTON at ARIZONA
            Play On - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (HOUSTON) after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season 41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )

            Comment


            • #7
              Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
              Jacksonville: 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as an underdog
              Tennessee: 31-15 OVER (+14.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points

              Philadelphia at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
              Philadelphia: 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games
              Green Bay: 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a home favorite

              Buffalo at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
              Buffalo: 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after playing a game at home
              Pittsburgh: 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

              Oakland at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
              Oakland: 60-94 ATS (-43.4 Units) in the second half of the season
              NY Giants: 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) off an upset win as a road underdog

              St Louis at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
              St Louis: 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) off a non-conference game
              Indianapolis: 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road

              Seattle at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
              Seattle: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
              Atlanta: 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

              Cincinnati at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
              Cincinnati: 59-87 ATS (-36.7 Units) versus division opponents
              Baltimore: 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

              Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 ET
              Detroit: 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) as a road favorite
              Chicago: 37-20 UNDER (+15.0 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less

              Carolina at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
              Carolina: 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
              San Francisco: 21-8 OVER (+12.2 Units) after a bye week

              Houston at Arizona, 4:25 ET
              Houston: 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses
              Arizona: 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better

              Denver at San Diego, 4:25 ET
              Denver: 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after a bye week
              San Diego: 46-27 UNDER (+16.3 Units) in home games versus division opponents

              Dallas at New Orleans, 8:30 ET
              Dallas: 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in the second half of the season
              New Orleans: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games

              Monday, November 11

              Miami at Tampa Bay, 8:40 ET
              Miami: 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better
              Tampa Bay: 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in November games

              Comment


              • #8
                1:00 PM
                SEATTLE vs. ATLANTA
                The total has gone OVER in 8 of Seattle's last 11 games on the road
                The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
                Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
                Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

                1:00 PM
                DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
                The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
                The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing Chicago
                The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing Detroit
                Chicago is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit

                1:00 PM
                OAKLAND vs. NY GIANTS
                The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
                The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
                NY Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Oakland
                The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Oakland

                1:00 PM
                PHILADELPHIA vs. GREEN BAY
                Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
                The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
                Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
                The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

                1:00 PM
                ST. LOUIS vs. INDIANAPOLIS
                The total has gone UNDER in 15 of St. Louis's last 23 games on the road
                St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
                The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
                Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis

                1:00 PM
                BUFFALO vs. PITTSBURGH
                Buffalo is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
                Buffalo is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
                Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
                The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 14 games at home

                1:00 PM
                JACKSONVILLE vs. TENNESSEE
                Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
                Jacksonville is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
                Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
                The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville

                1:00 PM
                CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
                Cincinnati is 6-15-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
                Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
                Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
                Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

                4:05 PM
                CAROLINA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
                Carolina is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
                The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
                San Francisco is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Carolina
                San Francisco is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Carolina

                4:25 PM
                DENVER vs. SAN DIEGO
                The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
                Denver is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
                The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games
                The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Denver

                4:25 PM
                HOUSTON vs. ARIZONA
                Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
                Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
                Arizona is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games
                The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games

                8:30 PM
                DALLAS vs. NEW ORLEANS
                Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
                Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
                New Orleans is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
                New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas

                Monday, November 11

                8:40 PM
                MIAMI vs. TAMPA BAY
                Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
                The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games on the road
                The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Miami
                The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home

                Comment


                • #9
                  Thursday Night Football Betting: Redskins at Vikings

                  Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (+1, 51)

                  The Washington Redskins may have salvaged their season with a pulsating overtime victory on Sunday, but they cannot afford a misstep when they visit the sliding Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night. The Redskins won their final seven games to win the NFC East title in 2012 and hope Sunday's dramatic win fuels another playoff run. “The way we won the game, I think it can be a turning point for us," quarterback Robert Griffin III said. "It’s definitely a bonding experience."

                  Washington needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off San Diego before winning overtime, but Minnesota was unable to do the same in Dallas and allowed the Cowboys to drive 90 yards for the winning touchdown in a 27-23 defeat. It marked the fourth consecutive loss for the Vikings, leading to some grousing from the players regarding the coaching staff. "There’s some things that are going on internally that are not allowing us to close out games," defensive end Brian Robison said.

                  TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

                  LINE: Washington opened as a 1-point road favorite and has moved as high as -2.5 at some books. The total has climbed from 48 to 50.5 points.

                  WEATHER: N/A

                  COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (+2.5) - Vikings (+7.0) + Home Field (-3.0) = Vikings +2.0

                  ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-5, 3-5 ATS): Although Griffin received much of the credit for the team's success in his rookie campaign, much of last season's success hinged on a powerful ground game led by Alfred Morris, who rumbled for a season-high 121 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries against the Chargers. Griffin threw for 291 yards and completed a season-high 71.9 percent (23-of-32) of his passes in the most well-rounded offensive performance of the season. "Whenever we’ve been on throughout the season, we’ve done a better job of just mixing things up," Griffin said.

                  ABOUT THE VIKINGS (1-7, 3-5 ATS): Minnesota has already had three different quarterbacks start this season, but Christian Ponder will be under center for a third consecutive game. Ponder was solid against the Cowboys, although he will be without one of his favorite targets in tight end Kyle Rudolph, who suffered a fractured foot against Dallas and is expected to be sidelined for about a month. Running back Adrian Peterson, who had been dealing with a hamstring issue for weeks, tied his season high with 140 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's defeat.

                  TRENDS:

                  * Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
                  * Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
                  * Over is 5-2 in Redskins last seven road games.
                  * Over is 5-0 in Vikings last five home games.

                  EXTRA POINTS:

                  1. Minnesota has won two of the last three meetings - all in Washington - but the Redskins prevailed 38-26 last season.

                  2. Griffin ran for a career-high 138 yards in last season's matchup with the Vikings.

                  3. Minnesota and Washington rank 30th and 31st in points allowed at 31.5 and 31.6 points, respectively.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Thursday Night Football Betting: Redskins at Vikings
                    By Covers.com

                    Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (+1, 51)

                    The Washington Redskins may have salvaged their season with a pulsating overtime victory on Sunday, but they cannot afford a misstep when they visit the sliding Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night. The Redskins won their final seven games to win the NFC East title in 2012 and hope Sunday's dramatic win fuels another playoff run. “The way we won the game, I think it can be a turning point for us," quarterback Robert Griffin III said. "It’s definitely a bonding experience."

                    Washington needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off San Diego before winning overtime, but Minnesota was unable to do the same in Dallas and allowed the Cowboys to drive 90 yards for the winning touchdown in a 27-23 defeat. It marked the fourth consecutive loss for the Vikings, leading to some grousing from the players regarding the coaching staff. "There’s some things that are going on internally that are not allowing us to close out games," defensive end Brian Robison said.

                    LINE: Washington opened as a 1-point road favorite and has moved as high as -2.5 at some books. The total has climbed from 48 to 50.5 points.

                    COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (+2.5) - Vikings (+7.0) + Home Field (-3.0) = Vikings +2.0

                    ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-5, 3-5 ATS): Although Griffin received much of the credit for the team's success in his rookie campaign, much of last season's success hinged on a powerful ground game led by Alfred Morris, who rumbled for a season-high 121 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries against the Chargers. Griffin threw for 291 yards and completed a season-high 71.9 percent (23-of-32) of his passes in the most well-rounded offensive performance of the season. "Whenever we’ve been on throughout the season, we’ve done a better job of just mixing things up," Griffin said.

                    ABOUT THE VIKINGS (1-7, 3-5 ATS): Minnesota has already had three different quarterbacks start this season, but Christian Ponder will be under center for a third consecutive game. Ponder was solid against the Cowboys, although he will be without one of his favorite targets in tight end Kyle Rudolph, who suffered a fractured foot against Dallas and is expected to be sidelined for about a month. Running back Adrian Peterson, who had been dealing with a hamstring issue for weeks, tied his season high with 140 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's defeat.

                    TRENDS:

                    * Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
                    * Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
                    * Over is 5-2 in Redskins last seven road games.
                    * Over is 5-0 in Vikings last five home games.

                    EXTRA POINTS:

                    1. Minnesota has won two of the last three meetings - all in Washington - but the Redskins prevailed 38-26 last season.

                    2. Griffin ran for a career-high 138 yards in last season's matchup with the Vikings.

                    3. Minnesota and Washington rank 30th and 31st in points allowed at 31.5 and 31.6 points, respectively.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Redskins at Vikings
                      By Kevin Rogers
                      VegasInsider.com

                      Two teams that made surprising playoff runs last season are struggling to just get to .500 as the Redskins and Vikings meet up Thursday night in Minnesota. Washington began last season slow with a 3-6 start before winning its final seven games to claim the NFC East championship. This season, the Redskins own a 3-5 record, but are still hanging around in the division race after a home overtime triumph on Sunday.

                      Washington outlasted San Diego, 30-24 to cash as slim one-point favorites thanks to a four-yard touchdown run by Darrel Young, the third score of the day for the fullback. The Redskins ran all over the Chargers' defense for 209 yards, while all four rushing touchdowns came from less than five yards out. Robert Griffin III bounced back from a rough outing at Denver last week to throw for 291 yards, but was responsible for a tipped interception recovered in the end zone by the Chargers.

                      The Vikings had opportunities to win in road defeats at Detroit and Chicago early in the season and blew another chance this past Sunday at Dallas. Minnesota overcame a 10-point deficit in the second half to take a 23-20 lead, but the Cowboys rallied for a touchdown in the final minute to shock the Vikings, 27-23. The Vikings managed to cover as 10-point road underdogs, while Adrian Peterson ran all over the Dallas defense for 140 yards and a bruising 11-yard touchdown. However, Minnesota now owns an 0-4 record on the highway, in spite of a 3-1 ATS mark away from Mall of America Field.

                      These teams met up in D.C. last October, as the Redskins outlasted the Vikings, 38-26. The defining moment of this contest was a 76-yard touchdown scamper by Griffin in the final three minutes to put away the victory and a cover as one-point home 'dogs. Griffin ran for two scores and threw for another, while Christian Ponder was intercepted twice, including one returned for a touchdown. This is just Washington's second visit to Minneapolis since 1999, as the two clubs have split the last six meetings in this span.

                      VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says to keep an eye out for Minnesota, "Peterson looks about as healthy as he has all season, so if the Vikings can get anything out of their passing game and special teams, they'll be a dangerous spoiler the rest of the way. Because no one has pulled away in the NFC East, Washington remains a contender, especially if Griffin has turned the corner physically. Alfred Morris and Roy Helu have revived the running game, setting the stage for a Thursday night game that may be more entertaining than we'd expect at face value from two sub-.500 teams."

                      Minnesota has won just once in four home games, but that victory came in London against Pittsburgh as the Vikings were listed as the "home" team. In the three contests played at Mall of America Field, the Vikings have allowed at least 31 points in losses to the Browns, Panthers, and Packers, while cashing the 'over' all three times. Since 2011, the Vikings are 6-2 ATS as a home underdog (excluded the London game), including three outright wins as a 'dog of 3 ½ points or less.

                      Washington finished last season with a 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS record away from FedEx Field, but the Redskins have stumbled to a 1-3 SU/ATS on the road in 2013. The lone victory for Mike Shanahan's team did come in the road favorite role in Week 4 at Oakland, beating the Raiders, 24-14 as three-point 'chalk.'

                      From a totals perspective, the Vikings have hit the 'over' in six of eight games, while falling short of an 'over' in the Dallas loss by one point. This is the second total above 50 for Minnesota this season, as the Vikings have seen just three totals of 50 or higher since the start of the 2010 campaign. Washington is 5-3 to the 'over' through eight games, including three consecutive 'overs' against San Diego, Chicago, and Denver.

                      The Redskins are listed as 2 ½-point road favorites at most spots, while the total sits between 50 and 50 ½. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        NFL Week 10

                        Redskins (3-5) @ Vikings (1-7) —
                        Minnesota hasn’t won since England trip, losing last four games in row by average score of 32-15; they seem to have settled on Ponder at QB and played better last week, losing 27-23 (+9) at Dallas, running ball for 169 yards, after averaging 72 ypg in previous three games. Vikings are 0-3 at home, losing by 4-25-13 points while allowing 36.7 ppg. Redskins allowed 35.3 ppg in splitting last four games; they beat Chargers in OT last week, but are 1-3 on road, with only win at Oakland- their road losses are by 18-15-24 points. Vikings have only two takeaways (-5) in last four games, after having 12 (+2) in first four. Teams split last six series meetings, with average total of 61.5 in last two; Redskins won five of last six visits here, but this is their first since ’07. Redskins lost 31-16 at Dallas in only previous game on carpet this season. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-6 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC North teams are 6-12-1 vs spread out of division, 2-6-1 at home. Last three Washington games and seven of eight Viking games went over the total.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          WASHINGTON (3 - 5) at MINNESOTA (1 - 7) - 11/7/2013, 8:25 PM

                          Top Trends for this game.
                          WASHINGTON is 53-82 ATS (-37.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

                          Head-to-Head Series History
                          MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
                          MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
                          2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


                          WASHINGTON vs. MINNESOTA
                          Washington is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games
                          Minnesota is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Washington


                          Washington at Minnesota
                          Washington: 53-82 ATS (-37.2 Units) as a favorite
                          Minnesota: 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in home games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Where the action is: Sharps, public split on Redskins-Vikings total

                            The Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings duke it out on Thursday Night Football in Week 10. We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this primetime matchup and where the odds could end up come kickoff Thursday night.

                            Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings – Open: +2.5, Move: +1

                            Some sportsbooks are dealing this spread as low as Minnesota +1, however, the majority of markets still have this line sitting just under a field goal as of Thursday afternoon. According to Stewart, the early money was on the road favorite but the books were hesitant to jump to Redskins -3, instead adjusting the juice from -110 to -120.

                            “That's where we've been most of the week,” Stewart tells Covers. “So far 75 percent of the action is on the Redskins. I believe sharps are waiting to see if this line gets to -3, but at this point I doubt we'll get there. “

                            The total has been the number to watch for this Thursday nighter. The over/under was posted as low as 48 points at some books and took a huge wave of early action on the Over, forcing a move as high as 51. The sharp money bought back the Under and dropped the total to 50.

                            “We’ve seen this a lot on these bigger primetime games, where the sharps are against the public, and that's what we have on this total. Sharps on the under, public betting it over,” says Stewart. “Our exposure on the Over is getting a bit heavy and I wouldn't be surprised if we get to 50.5, but I doubt we'll get back all the way to 51.”

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Week 10 Tips
                              By Kevin Rogers
                              VegasInsider.com

                              Eagles at Packers

                              Philadelphia: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS
                              Green Bay: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS

                              Last week's results: The Packers were dealt a major blow as Aaron Rodgers suffered a broken left collarbone in Monday's 27-20 home loss to the Bears. Rodgers left the game in the first quarter and is expected to miss at least four weeks, which will hurt Green Bay in this tight NFC North race. The Eagles are trying to string together some wins and started with a bang in last Sunday's 49-20 rout of the Raiders as a one-point underdog. Nick Foles tossed seven touchdown passes, as Philadelphia rebounded after scoring just 10 points in its previous two games combined.

                              Previous meeting results: The Packers eliminated the Eagles from the playoffs in the 2010 Wild Card round, 21-16 as one-point road underdogs. Philadelphia is visiting Lambeau Field for just the second time since 2004, as six of the last seven meetings have finished 'under' the total.

                              Betting notes: The last time the Packers failed to cover in successive home games came back in 2008, as Green Bay has won 10 consecutive games at Lambeau Field off a loss. The Eagles have won four of five road contests this season, while owning a modest 2-1 ATS record as an underdog.

                              Seahawks at Falcons

                              Seattle: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS
                              Atlanta: 2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS

                              Last week's results: The Seahawks rallied from a 21-0 deficit to stun the Buccaneers, 24-21, but Seattle didn't cover as heavy home favorites. Seattle has now won 12 straight home contests, while maintaining the top record in the NFC. The Falcons stumbled again on the road, falling at Carolina, 34-10 as 10-point underdogs. Atlanta has been outscored, 61-23 in its last two losses, while losing five of its past six overall.

                              Previous meeting results: The Falcons held off the Seahawks in last season's epic NFC Divisional Playoff contest, 30-28. Atlanta built a 20-0 halftime lead, but Seattle came all the way back to grab a 28-27 lead with 30 seconds remaining. The Falcons kicked a 49-yard field goal for the win, but failed to cover as three-point favorites.

                              Betting notes: The Seahawks own a solid 4-1 record away from home this season, while covering three times in the favorite role. The Falcons are 2-2 SU/ATS at the Georgia Dome, while winning and covering 11 straight home games coming off a loss.

                              Lions at Bears

                              Detroit: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
                              Chicago: 5-3, 2-5-1 ATS

                              Last week's results: The Bears picked up a key divisional road victory on Monday by knocking off the Packers, 27-20 as 10-point road underdogs. Josh McCown threw two touchdown passes in place of the injured Jay Cutler, while Matt Forte rushed for 125 yards and a score. The Lions are fresh off the bye, as Detroit is still in good spirits after stealing a victory from the Cowboys two weeks ago, 31-30. Detroit failed to cover as three-point favorites, as the Lions have alternated wins and losses in their last five games.

                              Previous meeting results: The Lions jumped out to a 30-13 halftime edge, as Detroit held off Chicago, 40-32 to cash as three-point home favorites in Week 4. Chicago turned the ball over four times, including three interceptions from Cutler. The Bears have won five straight home meetings with the Lions, but Detroit has covered in three of the last five visits to Soldier Field.

                              Betting notes: The Lions have cashed the 'over' in four of the last five games overall, but Detroit is 3-1 to the 'under' on the highway this season. Since the start of the 2012 season, the Bears are just 2-7 ATS against NFC North opponents.

                              Panthers at 49ers

                              Carolina: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
                              San Francisco: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS

                              Last week's results: The Panthers stayed hot by winning their fourth straight game, a 34-10 rout of the rival Falcons. Carolina has scored at least 30 points in each of its last four victories, while limiting its last four opponents to 15 points or fewer. The 49ers have won five consecutive games, while coming off the bye after trouncing the Jaguars in London two weeks ago, 42-10.

                              Previous meeting results: These teams haven't met since 2010, when the Panthers slipped past the Niners, 23-20 as short home underdogs. Carolina hasn't visited Candlestick Park since 2004, as the Panthers knocked off San Francisco, 37-27.

                              Betting notes: The Panthers have hit the 'over' in three of four road games this season, while posting a 6-0 ATS record as a road underdog since the start of 2012. San Francisco has covered five straight games, while going 'over' the total four times during this hot streak. The Niners have won seven of their last eight games at Candlestick since tying the Rams last November, as San Francisco has cashed six times in this stretch at home.

                              Broncos at Chargers

                              Denver: 7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
                              San Diego: 4-4 SU, 5-2-1 ATS

                              Last week's results: Denver is fresh off the bye week, while dropping 31 fourth quarter points in its previous game against Washington, a 45-21 triumph as 11-point favorites. The Broncos snapped a three-game ATS slide in the win over the Redskins, as Peyton Manning tossed four touchdowns and three interceptions. The Chargers also played the Redskins in their last game, but San Diego fell in overtime to Washington, 30-24. The Bolts were making their third trip to the East Coast already this season, while allowing their most points since Week 2 at Philadelphia.

                              Previous meeting results: Last season, the Broncos swept the season series from the Chargers, which included a remarkable comeback in San Diego. On a Monday night in October 2012, Denver erased a 24-0 halftime deficit to stun San Diego with 35 unanswered points in the second half of a 35-24 triumph. The Chargers have lost three of the last four home meetings with the Broncos.

                              Betting notes: The Broncos have cashed the 'over' in all eight contests this season, while scoring at least 33 points in each contest. The Chargers haven't lost consecutive games this season, putting together a 3-0 SU/ATS record off a defeat.

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