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**TheGame** · 10-23-2013, 04:49 AM

Close Calls - Week 7
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

NFL games often go down to the wire, especially relative to the spread. Here are close calls from Week 7 of the NFL season, recapping the spread-changing plays from the fourth quarters around the league. Each week there are several key plays late in games that can change the result or create a misleading final score, get the details in this weekly column.

Seattle Seahawks (-4½) 34, Arizona Cardinals 22: Seattle led 17-13 into the third quarter, but the Seahawks pulled away with back-to-back touchdown scores thanks to an interception returned to the one-yard line, leading 31-13 entering the fourth quarter. Arizona gave underdog backers hope, however, with a touchdown with less than five minutes to go to trim the lead to just 12 points, though the two-point conversion miss was costly for those chances. On their final drive, the Cardinals were to the Seattle 26, but they came up short on fourth down to end the threat. Had Arizona found the end zone, the margin would have been five points with the extra-point, giving many on the Cardinals the win as the line opened at -6 ½ before falling throughout the week.

New York Jets (+3) 30, New England Patriots 27: The Patriots led 21-10 at the half, but an interception early in the third quarter changed everything as the Jets were within four. New York would take a 27-21 lead into the fourth quarter before the Patriots cut the margin to three with a field goal early in the final frame. The Jets moved to midfield two separate times, but the New England defense held and starting on its own eight just before the two-minute warning, Tom Brady and company still had a shot. Those on the underdog Jets were in a precarious position as a touchdown and extra point would flip the spread result as well. New England moved with relative ease down the field, but eventually stalled at the New York 26, failing with three straight incomplete passes before settling for overtime. New England won the toss, but only picked up one first down and the Jets were able to move to the edge of field goal range, opting to try the long 56-yard field goal attempt. The kick was missed, but for the second time this season, the Jets were bailed out with a late penalty and the retry from 15 yards closer was true.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6½) 17, Houston Texans 16: There was no scoring in the fourth quarter of this game as the Chiefs moved to 7-0, but the Texans held on to take the cover in this game despite a couple of near touchdowns for Kansas City. Early in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs failed going for it on fourth and one at the Houston one-yard line and then midway through the fourth quarter, the Chiefs had a rare turnover in Houston territory. Late in the game, Chiefs' backers nearly got a miracle cover as Case Keenum was sacked at the four-yard line with less than two minutes to go, the fumble was picked up by Derrick Johnson and he rolled into the end zone, but contact had brought him down at the one and the Chiefs kneeled to burn the rest of the clock.

Cincinnati Bengals (+2½) 27, Detroit Lions 24: The home favorite Lions never led in the second half of this game, but they tied the game early in the fourth quarter. Getting the ball back, the Lions stalled near midfield after a pass completion into field goal territory was brought back by penalty and overturned. Cincinnati also saw a drive stalled with a key penalty as well. The Lions were forced to punt with 30 seconds left and a marginal punt left the Bengals near midfield with 26 seconds to go. Cincinnati got 15 yards in two plays and Mike Nugent hit a 54-yard kick to seal the game without overtime.

Washington Redskins (+1) 45, Chicago Bears 41: The Redskins led by seven entering the fourth quarter, but the Bears put up quite a fight even without Jay Cutler. After trading touchdowns, the Bears had to settle for a field goal to cut the lead to four. At that point, the Bears attempted a somewhat surprise onside kick and recovered, but offsides wiped it out. They did force Washington to punt and in just four plays, the Bears found the end zone, but that score was negated with an illegal formation. Two plays later with the help of a personal foul penalty, the Bears took the lead by three with about four minutes to go. RGIII led an excellent drive and the Redskins scored with under a minute to go to take a four-point lead. The Bears got past midfield with the remaining time but needing a touchdown, the game ended with a sack.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) 31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23: +8 or +8 ½ was available on Tampa Bay very early in the week, but this line fell to just +6 by Sunday. The Buccaneers had a yardage edge in the game and were within seven entering the fourth quarter, but Atlanta would find the end zone with the help of a key penalty early in the final frame to push the margin to 14. After an 18-play drive, Tampa Bay had to settle for a field goal after they were left with fourth and 23 after multiple penalties. Down 11, a touchdown would be enough to flip the spread result, but Tampa Bay was again forced to kick a field goal with the limited time remaining and needing two scores as there were stopped despite a first down at the Atlanta 21 on the next drive. Atlanta held on the onside kick attempt and the Falcons escaped with a narrow win and cover.

Green Bay Packers (-8½) 31, Cleveland Browns 13: While this line fell from opening numbers as a high as 11, the Browns did have opportunities late in this game to make a much closer final. Early in the fourth quarter with the Browns down just 17-6, the Browns curiously went for it on fourth and 15 at the Green Bay 31, failing and leaving with no points when a field goal could have made it a one-score game. On the next drive, the Packers were able to score in just five plays to push the margin to 18 points. Cleveland answered with a touchdown and twice got the onside kick, but both times it was ruled illegal. Down 11 with six minutes to go, the Cleveland defense failed again as Green Bay scored in just four plays. Cleveland's next drive went down to the Green Bay seven, but the Browns did not get in and a penalty on the final punt for the Packers left the Browns without another possession. Those on the 'under' had to greatly sweat out the wild fourth quarter after the game was on pace to play well 'under' most of the way.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) 19, Baltimore Ravens 16: Many on the Steelers were likely able to play the game at -2 ½ and the Steelers led by seven entering the fourth quarter. Baltimore added another field goal early in the final quarter and attempted an onside kick but failed. In great field position, Pittsburgh did enough to push the lead back to seven with a 38-yard kick. With 10 minutes to go, Baltimore put together a 16-play drive elapsing over eight minutes, finding the end zone to tie the game. Pittsburgh got the ball back in good field position after Emmanuel Sanders had a nice return and the Steelers moved the ball well enough with careful clock management to get into range with the game-winning field goal sailing through as time expired.

**TheGame** · 10-23-2013, 04:49 AM

NFC News and Notes from Week 7
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC thoughts and opinions from Week 7.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The personnel here is just fine. Linebacker LaVante David was amazing, notching three tackles for loss including a sack, knocking away passes downfield and stuffing the run repeatedly. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson was unstoppable as well, developing nice chemistry with the rookie QB Mike Glennon. And after Glennon’s early pick six, he made some great throws, albeit on an inconsistent afternoon. Right now, Glennon falls into the ‘serviceable’ category, not into the ‘developing a future franchise quarterback’ category.

Dropped passes continue to kill this team; three in the first quarter alone. Penalties have been a problem, entering the contest averaging 8.6 per game (2nd worst in the NFL) and committing eleven more penalties here.

As the Bucs were trying to rally back from a two touchdown deficit in the fourth quarter, they drove down the field for a first and goal at the five yard line. After a series of miscues and a TD wiped off the board via penalty, Tampa ended up settling for the field goal on 4th and goal from the 23. A stupid personal foul penalty set up Atlanta’s lone fourth quarter score, turning a one touchdown deficit into a two TD deficit. This team just can’t seem to get out of their own way.

Atlanta Falcons - Lots of very positive signs for the Falcons in this game, but I’m not convinced their troubles are solved just because they beat up on a self-destructing Bucs squad. Atlanta had a pass rush today. Osi Umenyiora and Peria Jerry ate up the Bucs offensive line. Rookie cornerback Desmond Trufant got picked on, but he also made a handful of nice plays. Still, for the umpteenth consecutive time, the defense played poorly while protecting a second half lead; allowing Tampa scores on three of their last four possessions in what was still a competitive game.

Matt Ryan looked great despite playing without his top two receivers. Harry Douglas is about to become a star in this offense. The former slot receiver has been forced into the #1 WR role, and he enjoyed a huge afternoon. Tony Gonzalez was relatively quiet, but he made a pair of big catches. Jacquizz Rodgers made people miss catching dump-offs out of the backfield. But Atlanta’s fundamental flaw on offense hasn’t changed – they still can’t run the football one iota, failing to get a single first down twice on their three ‘let’s burn some clock’ drives in the second half.

Two more problem areas reared their heads for the Falcons today. They did punch in a couple of short yardage TDs here, but they’re still converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns less than 50% of the time. And the penalties in this game were simply inexcusable, racking up more than 100 penalty yards.

Detroit Lions - This secondary had one guy to stop today – AJ Green – and they couldn't do it, allowing multiple big plays for a defense focused on him. Cornerback Chris Houston was burned for an 82 yard touchdown on the Bengals second play from scrimmage and it didn’t get any better after that. For as strong as this defensive line is supposed to be, the back seven aren't getting maximum benefit from the pressure that unit creates.

And, frankly, the pass rush wasn't that great. Over and over, Detroit put Cinci in third and longs. But the pass defense allowed the Bengals to covert on third and 7 twice, third and nine and third and twelve, their only four third down conversions of the game.

But Detroit lost this game on a shanked punt, not a defensive meltdown. With less than 30 seconds to go, the rookie punter Sam Martin barely got the ball to midfield, allowing Cinci to kick the game winning field goal after gaining only a single first down. On a day where a blocked field goal against David Akers resulted in a huge momentum swing before halftime, the Lions unstoppable passing game wasn’t good enough to overcome their miscues on their other two units.

Carolina Panthers - None of Carolina's mediocrity this year is related to poor play from Cam Newton. Newton was absolutely phenomenal today, throwing only two incomplete passes while averaging 12 yards per attempt. If he actually had some good targets to throw to besides Steve Smith, the sky is the limit for his passing ability. But because this receiving corps is so weak, St. Louis stacked the box today and all three Panthers rushers (including Newton) were held under three yards per carry.

I’m not impressed at all with Mike Shula’s playcalling, particularly in short yardage and red zone situations. And with a second half lead, Carolina showed no interest in going for the jugular; quite content burning a little bit of clock and then punting. But while the offense is mediocre, this defense has allowed the fewest touchdowns and second fewest points in the NFL this year, an elite level stop unit. They were positively dominant again here; the best unit for either team in the ballgame. Four sacks, nine tackles for loss, three turnovers forced (including a pick six on the first pass attempt of the game), and a consistent run stuffing effort. But before we get carried away, let’s not forget that no team in the league has faced a weaker slate than the Bills, Giants, Cardinals, Vikings, Rams quintet that Carolina has faced since losing to Seattle in Week 1.

St. Louis Rams - This front seven on defense is head and shoulders better than it was a month ago when they were getting gashed on every play. It looked like a significantly improved unit even after sackmeister Chris Long got tossed out of the game for fighting. There are four former first rounders in that group, along with their best defensive player, linebacker James Laurinaitis, who was an early second rounder – no shortage of talent. They blew up the line of scrimmage for a first quarter safety and spent the entire afternoon stuffing the run. The young, struggling secondary is another story entirely however, forcing only two incomplete passes while getting picked apart all afternoon.

Sam Bradford was taking shots downfield to his playmakers. Tavon Austin had a 63-yard TD grab called back on a penalty. Brian Quick had a 73-yard catch and run. Bradford has done a much better job avoiding turnovers, throwing only two interceptions in his last five games. But the offensive line couldn’t protect him here and he left the game with what looked like a very serious knee injury. Backup QB Kellen Clemens has been in the league since 2006 without ever earning a starting job and a career QB rating of 62.2. If Clemens is forced into action for the weeks and months to come, the Rams drop-off could be quite significant.

Washington Redskins - I don't think I've ever seen a team look so good on defense in August and so bad on defense once the regular season started. Not much is working right defensively for Washington these days, allowing four touchdowns and a missed field goal on the Bears last six drives. Their pass rush is anemic. Their coverage in the secondary is dismal. Their linebackers are slow. Facing a backup QB playing behind a banged up offensive line, this stop unit got gashed on drive after drive.

Brian Orakpo's pick six was the first significant play this defense has made in weeks, and, frankly, that came via a lucky bounce more than any other factor. If you can't stop the run against a team playing their backup quarterback the finger needs to be pointed at defensive coordinator Jim Haslett. And when your team allows a special teams touchdown for three consecutive games in the NFL (two punt returns and a blocked punt), that’s on the head coach!

That being said, this was the first game all year that RG3 2013 looked like RG3 2012. He was dynamic with his feet, his best rushing game of the season. He extended plays with his legs, delivering passes to his receivers after buying extra time. And he made plays in the red zone, in sharp contrast to the loss at Dallas last week, cashing in four touchdowns on five red zone opportunities.

**TheGame** · 10-23-2013, 04:49 AM

CAROLINA (3 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 6) - 10/24/2013, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 68-38 ATS (+26.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home

Carolina at Tampa Bay
Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Tampa Bay
Favorite is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings

**TheGame** · 10-24-2013, 04:58 AM

NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the NY Giants last 14 games on the road
Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants

SAN FRANCISCO vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 11 of San Francisco's last 14 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games

MIAMI vs. NEW ENGLAND
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Miami's last 19 games on the road
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Miami

BUFFALO vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games

DALLAS vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Dallas

CLEVELAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games

NY JETS vs. CINCINNATI
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games at home
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

PITTSBURGH vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
Oakland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games at home

WASHINGTON vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

ATLANTA vs. ARIZONA
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

GREEN BAY vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

Monday, October 28

SEATTLE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games at home

**TheGame** · 10-24-2013, 08:19 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Sunday, October 27

San Francisco at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 20-8 ATS in games played on a grass field
Jacksonville: 5-16 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Dallas at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 8-26 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive unders
Detroit: 11-3 OVER as a favorite

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 32-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points

Cleveland at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9
Kansas City: 13-4 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Buffalo at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 0-6 ATS off a upset win as an underdog
New Orleans: 19-8 ATS in games played on turf

Miami at New England, 1:00 ET
Miami: 2-11 ATS off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite
New England: 11-2 ATS off a division game

NY Jets at Cincinnati, 4:05 ET
NY Jets: 1-9 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Cincinnati: 12-2 ATS after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game

Pittsburgh at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Pittsburgh: 58-33 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
Oakland: 7-21 ATS in home games off a road loss against a division rival

Washington at Denver, 4:25 ET
Washington: 14-3 ATS in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game
Denver: 0-7 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 4 straight games

Atlanta at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Atlanta: 31-50 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Arizona: 20-7 ATS in home games off a home loss

Green Bay at Minnesota, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 12-2 ATS versus division opponents
Minnesota: 55-34 OVER in weeks 5 through 9

**TheGame** · 10-24-2013, 11:40 AM

Panthers at Buccaneers
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The NFC South race is pretty much the Saints to lose at this point. Past 5-1 New Orleans, the other three teams in the division own a combined 5-13 record, as two of those clubs hook up on Thursday night. Week 8 kicks off with the winless Buccaneers hosting the surging Panthers, as Carolina has come back to life following an 0-2 start to the season.

The Panthers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) lost a pair of tight contests to the Seahawks and Bills in the first two weeks of the season by a combined six points. Carolina is back in business by winning three of its last four games, while scoring at least 30 points in all three victories. Ron Rivera's squad hasn't beaten a team that is currently above .500, but the Panthers are taking care of their business against the foes on their schedule.

The most recent triumph for the Panthers came against the Rams last Sunday in a 30-15 home victory as 7½-point favorites. Cam Newton put together an efficient 15-of-17 day passing with one touchdown, while Captain Munnerlyn's interception return for a score less than a minute in to the game set the tone for Carolina. The Panthers' defense forced three turnovers, while knocking out St. Louis quarterback Sam Bradford for the season with a torn left ACL suffered in the fourth quarter.

The Buccaneers (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS) have pretty much a disaster since the start of the season. The opening week loss to the Jets in which a late unsportsmanlike conduct penalty set up the game-winning field goal opened the door to six consecutive losses. Also, Tampa Bay cut veteran quarterback Josh Freeman after four weeks and handed the offense over to former North Carolina State standout Mike Glennon. The move hasn't resulted in wins for Tampa Bay, who suffered its most recent to another division foe last week.

Tampa Bay fell behind early in last Sunday's 31-23 defeat at Atlanta as six-point underdogs, as the Bucs trailed by as many as 17. The Falcons rushed for just 18 yards on 18 carries, but Matt Ryan torched Tampa Bay's defense for three touchdowns. Amazingly, the Bucs held onto the ball for nearly 38 minutes, while Glennon hooked up with Vincent Jackson on a pair of touchdown tosses. The game easily went 'over' the closing total of 43, the second straight 'over' for Greg Schiano's club following four consecutive 'unders' to start the season.

The Panthers are playing with double-revenge after getting swept by the Bucs last season. Tampa Bay grabbed the 2012 season opener, 13-10 to cash outright as three-point home underdogs. The Bucs jumped out to a 13-0 halftime lead before holding off a late Carolina rally, while limiting the Panthers to only 10 yards rushing. Tampa Bay pulled off the season sweep after overcoming a 21-10 deficit to stun Carolina last November, 27-21 in Charlotte. Doug Martin tore up the Panthers' defense for 138 yards on the ground, while Jackson hauled in 94 yards receiving and a touchdown.

The Bucs will be without Martin this Thursday and likely for the next few weeks with a left shoulder injury, which was suffered in the loss at Atlanta. Tampa Bay will turn to former Miami Hurricanes' running back Mike James to fill Martin's void, as James rushed for 45 yards and 14 carries against the Falcons.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says this is a must-win for the Panthers to be a legit squad in the NFC, "Thanks in part of the relative mediocrity of the rest of the NFC, the Panthers have an opportunity to establish themselves as a playoff team at the season's midway point. They'll have to get accustomed to being the hunted, so seeing how they handle this role of road favorite against a winless team starting a rookie backfield will tell us a lot about their killer instinct. Will Newton be unleashed, or will Carolina take the cautious approach and limit risks? Both the margin of victory and total will hinge on Rivera's approach."

Since the start of 2012, the Panthers own a profitable 7-4 ATS record away from Bank of America Stadium, although they have covered just once in three tries this season. As a favorite in this stretch, Rivera's club is just 3-6 ATS, while failing to cover as road 'chalk' at Buffalo and Arizona. The Panthers have split their last six trips to Raymond James Stadium since 2007, with their last win coming in 2011 as three-point favorites.

On the flip side, the Bucs have been a horrible home underdog since Jon Gruden's departure after the 2008 season. Tampa Bay owns a dreadful 4-14 ATS record at Raymond James Stadium since 2009 when receiving points, although one of those covers came in Week 2 against New Orleans in a 16-14 loss in the final seconds as three-point 'dogs. That ATS win against the Saints was the only one through six contests for the Buccaneers this season.

The Panthers are listed as six-point favorites at many books, while the total sits at 40. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

**TheGame** · 10-24-2013, 11:40 AM

Thursday Night Football Betting: Panthers at Buccaneers
By Covers.com

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 40.5)

Cam Newton has been overshadowed by the highly publicized quarterback class of 2012, but he has the Carolina Panthers at .500 for the first time in his three-year tenure as they prepare to visit the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night. The Panthers have won three of four and a victory Thursday would give them them a winning record, something that hasn't occurred since the end of the 2008 season. Tampa Bay posted a pair of six-point wins over Carolina last season.

An already-bleak season took another turn for the worse for the Buccaneers on Monday when it was revealed that second-year running back Doug Martin suffered a torn labrum in his shoulder in Sunday's 31-23 loss to Atlanta. Martin, who rushed for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns last season as a rookie, will be sidelined indefinitely and could be done for the season. That puts more pressure on rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, who will be making his fourth career start.

LINE: The Panthers opened at -6 and have been bet down to -5.5. The total has jumped from 38.5 to 40.5.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s with winds blowing NE at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (0.0) + Tampa Bay (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers +3.5

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-3, 3-3 ATS): Newton has put up huge numbers in the past but they haven't translated into the win column. He has been steely efficient in back-to-back victories over St. Louis and Minnesota, completing 35-of-43 passes for four touchdowns and zero interceptions while posting passer ratings of 136.3 and 143.4, respectively. Carolina's defense has also play a pivotal role in the resurgence, allowing an average of 243 total yards over the past four games and yielding one TD in each of the past two.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (0-6, 1-5 ATS): Three of Tampa Bay's losses have come by a combined six points, so circumstances are not as dire as the record indicates despite the reported friction between the players and coach Greg Schiano. Although Martin is the focal point of the offense, he has struggled in his second season and been held to 67 rushing yards or fewer in four of the six games. Glennon is developeding a nice rapport with wideout Vincent Jackson, who has 19 receptions for 252 yards and four TDs in the past two games.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Tampa Bay.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The teams have alternated series sweeps over the past four seasons.

2. Newton has five TD passes and zero interceptions with four rushing scores in his last three versus the Buccaneeers.

3. Tampa Bay churned out 297 rushing yards in the two wins over Carolina last season.

**TheGame** · 10-24-2013, 11:40 AM

NFL Page Week 8

Panthers (3-3) @ Buccaneers (0-6) — Carolina has yet to allow first half TD, outscoring foes 68-17 before halftime this season; their three wins are by average score of 34-8, but their only win in three road games was 35-10 at dysfunctional Minnesota. Panthers picked off pass on opponents’ first series in each of last three games, scoring defensive TD on first play last week against Rams. Winless Bucs are 1-5 vs spread, losing home games by 2-3-11 points; since ’09, Tampa is 4-13-1 as home underdogs. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread so far this season. Bucs won four of last six series games, winning 16-10/27-21 in LY’s meetings, but Carolina is 7-3 in last ten visits here, albeit 1-2 in last three. In their last five games, Panthers have three TDs/FG on their first drive of second half, so they’re making solid halftime adjustments. Rookie QB Glennon is 0-3 as a starter, but they’ve scored 17.7 ppg in his three starts, compared to 11.3 in Freeman’s starts. Oddity: Bucs have been even in turnovers every game this season.

**TheGame** · 10-24-2013, 01:45 PM

2-Minute Handicap
Playbook.com

Thursday, October 24

Carolina 11-1 A vs opp off SUATS loss... 0-3 SUATS A after score 30 > each L2G
TAMPA BAY 5 -1 vs .500 > opp off win 6 >... 0-7 H vs opp off BB ATS wins

Sunday, October 27

San Francisco 7-1 as favs 8 > pts Games 5-8... 8-2 as non-conf favs 3 > pts
JACKSONVILLE 18-4 before Titans... 7-2 dogs 12 > when < .300... 0-6 off SUATS loss vs opp off BB SU wins in Games 5-8

Dallas 1-7 SUATS vs NFC N... 1-7 w / OU line 48> pts
DETROIT 7-1 vs NFC E... 3-12 off SU fav loss

New York Giants SERIES: 2-7-1 L10G... 1-4 before Bye week
PHILADELPHIA 4-0 as favs off DD ATS loss vs div opp... 0-6 HF off H

Cleveland Series: 3-1 SUATS L4... 5-1 off BB SU losses vs opp off BB SU wins... 0-4 vs .666 > non-div opp
KANSAS CITY 0-6 SU L6 vs AFC N... 2-9 off SUATS wins vs <.500 opp

Buffalo Series: 0-3 L3... 8-1 in 2nd of BB RG's...7-0 A off SU dog win in Gms 5-8... 1-7 w/OU line 47> pts
NEW ORLEANS 11-0 H vs non-conf opp off SU dog win... Payton: 8-1 after allow 28 > pts

Miami Philbin: 7-2 as dog < 10 pts... 0-7 O/U away off BB SU loses
NEW ENGLAND 11-0 home vs conf opp off SU fav loss... 9-2 off div RG vs opp off SUATS loss

New York Jets Series: 3-0 L3... 6-0 O/U off SU div dog win... 0-4 as non-div dogs 4 > pts
CINCINNATI 5-0 off SU dog win vs opp off SU win... 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS vs AFC E

Pittsburgh Series: 1-4 L5... 0-5 vs AFC West... 6-0 O/U as non-div RF'S 6 < pts
OAKLAND 5-0 as conf HD's off SUATS loss...1-9 w/rest... 2-14 in 1st off BB H vs < .500 opp

Washington 5-0 away w/OU line 47 >pts...0-7 as non-div dogs > 3 pts vs. 600 > opp
DENVER Series: 0-3 L3... 8-2 vs NFC E... 1-6 home vs .400 < opp

Atlanta Series: 3-1 L4...12-0 away vs opp off BB SU losses
ARIZONA 5-0 as non-div conf favs 6 < pts off BB SU losses... 4-1 vs NFC S

Green Bay Series: 8-4 L12... 5-0 before Monday game... 0-8 O/U as div RF'S 10 < pts (Game 15 <)
MINNESOTA 7-1 as dog off BB SU losses... Frazier: 8-1-1 off SUATS loss vs opp off SU win

Monday, October 28

Seattle Series: 9-3 L12... 4-0 L4 on Mondays... 0-7 as conf favs off away game
ST. LOUIS 8-0 vs .666 > opp off SU win...0-4 L4 on Mondays... 3-12 as div HD's 4 > pts ... 6-0 O/U as dogs on Monday

ABBREVIATIONS LEGEND: For the most part, results are presented in this order: Series, Good Results, Bad Results, Over/Under Totals and Coaches Results. All team and coaches results are Against The Spread and pertain to preseason - unless noted otherwise. (NOTE: * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation and/or line in this game). ATS = Against The Spread, SU = Straight Up, A = Away, H = Home, Dog = Underdog, Fav = Favorite, L = Last, N = Neutral. OVER/UNDER results in Over (first) / Under (second) sequence. Site Numbers (Home One, Home Two; Away One, Away Two) designate 1st or 2nd home or road games of preseason. Dual team or coaches results - Straight-Up and Against The Spread - are separated with a ' / '. Asterisk * = check team previous game for possible similar result.

**TheGame** · 10-24-2013, 05:33 PM

Where the action is: Sharp money on Bucs, Under Thursday night

The NFC South steps into the primetime spotlight when the Carolina Panthers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this standalone game and where the odds could end up by kickoff:

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: +6.5, Move: +6

Some markets opened this game with Carolina as high as a touchdown favorite and have since seen the spread drop as low as +5.5. According to Stewart, action on this Thursday contest started balanced on both sides before sharps got involved earlier in the week.

“On Tuesday afternoon, we booked sharp action on the dog and went from +6.5 to +6, respecting the sharp action on the dog,” Stewart tells Covers. “But since going to +6, we’ve seen nothing but Panther money.”

The oddsmakers tried to stay on that key number of six, adjusting the juice from Carolina -6 (-115) to -6 (-120) but eventually went back to Panthers -6.5 (Even) with the public jumping on the road team. Carolina has gone 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games while Tampa Bay remains winless, with a 1-5 ATS record on the year.

“With just over 70 percent of the action on the Panthers, we’re going to be rooting hard for the Bucs tonight,” says Stewart. “I can’t see us going to +7 in this game and again, we’ll take our chances with the Bucs +6.5 points.”

As for Thursday total, the number opened as low as 39.5 at some books and has climbed to as high as 40.5. CarbonSports.ag posted a total of 41 points and watched sharp action on the Under trim that total to 40.5.

“Since going to 40.5, we’ve seen a lot of over money, but nothing significant enough for us to move back to 41,” says Stewart. “We respect the under action."

**TheGame** · 10-25-2013, 10:02 AM

NFL Gambling Preview: Washington at Denver
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com

Washington at Denver
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Denver -12 O/U 55
CRIS Current: Denver -11.5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -12
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over

As the Broncos continue to show the betting public that you can mechanically play over in every one of their games, oddsmakers don’t seem to be posting a price tag high enough to deter that. This week, the Washington-Denver total was opened too low according to the early money and it’s been pushed from 55 all the way to the key number of 58 and in some shops, beyond. It’s important to note that on all occasions this season, Denver has had an opponent with at least one attribute which helped greatly in producing final scores totaling 58 or higher in six of seven contests. This week is no different as Washington rolls into Sports Authority Field at Mile High with a sieve of a defense (389.0 ypg, 30.7 ppg) and an offense which seems to be finding its rhythm. Adding to the Redskins defensive woes this week, especially since they’re facing Peyton Manning and the NFL’s #1 passing offense, is the loss of starting FS Brandon Merriweather (suspension) and the likely absence of starting SS Reed Doughty (concussion). With the potential of starting a pair of inexperienced safeties (2nd year backup Trenton Robinson and rookie Baccari Rambo), Washington figures to get scorched through the air.

The Redskins season sack number of 18 makes their pass rush seem decent initially but seven of those came in one game versus Oakland in Matt Flynn’s only start before being cut. The expectation here is that the high octane Broncos attack will get to 38 points with a real good chance of reaching their season average of 42. With that in mind, the only thing necessary to cash another Denver game over ticket is at least 21 points from Washington.

The positive progression in the health and on field ability of Robert Griffin III is now showing up in the form of offensive production. In last week’s 45-41 victory over Chicago (granted, the middle of the Bears defense is banged up), Griffin and the Washington offense resembled last season’s balanced attack registering 209 yards on the ground and 290 yard through the air. Griffin’s 11 carries for 84 yards indicate that opposing defenses will again have to seriously prepare for the read option and defending Washington’s QB the entire width of the field. That could prove to be difficult for the Broncos who have been a mess defensively this season but they do have some experience in the read option to lean back on since they played Philadelphia here just a month ago. Michael Vick did compile 114 yards on 24 carries (4.75 ypc) but were largely ineffective once the second half deficit grew and they were forced to pass.

Instinct here says that a motivated Denver team which is off of a loss and now in second place in the AFC West, will explode on the helpless Washington defense and force them to chase all day. Washington proved last week that it is capable of chasing against porous defenses and getting into competitive shootouts. The question that remains here is now that the Broncos are in week two of having all their starting defensive players (OLB Von Miller and CB Champ Bailey returned last week), when will they begin to play better on that side of the ball? This is probably not the week to expect that and since the weather is projected to be a balmy 58 and clear. I’ll side with the money and play the over.

**TheGame** · 10-25-2013, 10:03 AM

NFL Gambling Preview: Miami at New England
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Miami at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: New England -7 (+101) O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: New England -6.5 O/U 44.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New England -7
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Miami

The New England Patriots are a very different team now compared to where they were a month ago. The biggest difference between the Pats now and when they started the season 4-0 is a barrage of injuries on the defensive side of the football. After four weeks of play, the Patriots D looked like an elite level unit; ranked among the league leaders in nearly every significant statistical category. But they’ve been torched by the Jets and Saints for 57 points and more than 750 yards in their last two ballgames.

Perennial pro bowl defensive tackle Vince Wilfork tore his Achilles; out for the year. His counterpart at defensive tackle, veteran Tommy Kelly hasn’t been able to suit up for the last two weeks with a bum knee; still listed as ‘questionable’ for this weekend. Safety Tavon Wilson has missed the last three games, and is no sure thing to go this Sunday with his bad hamstring. Cornerback Aqib Talib transformed this defense when he arrived here from Tampa Bay last year, but his hip injury kept him sidelined last week and he’s no sure thing to suit up either. Star linebacker Jerod Mayo is on IR, out for the year. Safety Adrian Wilson has been on IR since their preseason finale. Add it up and there’s one heck of a lot of talent sitting on the sidelines for Bill Belichick’s squad right now.

While the Patriots defense has been riddled with injuries, their offense has shown cracks as well. Tom Brady has thrown a grand total of one touchdown pass in the last three weeks while completing only 51% of his throws. He’s thrown an interception in three straight games, including last week’s momentum changing pick six. Brady has been getting clobbered; sacked at least four times in each of those three contests. That’s bad news with Dolphins pass rusher Cameron Wake back on the field after his own injury woes. Even with Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup last week, New England converted on only 1-12 third down tries last week, while allowing 11 third down conversions from the Jets.

Miami is going through their own struggles right now, dropping three straight since their 3-0 start. Last week’s home loss to Buffalo following the bye was particularly heartbreaking for the Dolphins – they had the ball and the lead with less than three minutes to play, before a Ryan Tannehill sack/fumble changed late game momentum in a big way, especially on the heels of his pick six earlier in the game. It’s surely worth noting that no QB in the league has taken more sacks than Tannehill this year. Tackle Tyson Clabo after getting beat repeatedly by Mario Williams last week, including on that late sack: “I have to take full responsibility.”

The series history here is fairly one-sided from a SU perspective – the Patriots have won all six meetings between these two teams over the past three seasons. And New England has won five of those six meetings by a TD or more; four times by two TD’s or more, including 28-0 and 38-7 blowouts here in Foxboro during that span. But it’s surely worth noting that all three recent meetings here in Massachusetts were December/January cold weather games, bad news for a warm weather team like the Dolphins. The lookahead forecast for Sunday? Gametime temperatures in the mid-50’s; not December weather.

This is clearly a ‘circle the wagons’ type game for Miami, as evidenced by this Tannehill quote: “We're in a tough spot right now. We have to face the adversity and grow from it. There are two ways we can go. We can tank it, or we can turn it around.” I’m not expecting a tank job here.

**TheGame** · 10-25-2013, 10:03 AM

NFL Week 8

Jaguars (0-7) vs 49ers (5-2) — Our condolences to Jaguar coach Bradley, who just lost his dad, will re-join team later this week in London. Niners won/covered last four games by average score of 33-13, figure to squash hideous Jaguar squad that lost first seven games by double figures, something that hasn’t happened in 30+ years. Only game Jax covered was 35-19 loss in Denver when they were getting 27 points; their offense has improved last three games, averaging 359.3 ypg, after averaging 224 ypg in first four losses, but their closest loss this year was 19-9 (+6) at Oakland in Week 2. 49ers are 5-1 as favorites this year, 21-8-1 in Harbaugh era; they’re +8 in turnovers in last three games (10-2) and have won field position by average of 12 yards per game during 4-game win streak- they were held to 3-7 points in their two losses. Six of Jags’ seven opponents scored 24+ points. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-9 vs spread, 5-4 on road. Three of last four 49er games went over the total.

Cowboys (4-3) @ Lions (4-3) — Dallas is 6-1 vs spread this year, 3-0 when getting points; in two games since 51-48 loss to Denver, Cowboys allowed only one offensive TD on 25 drives, no TDs/four FGs on five red zone drives, so their defense has improved since then. Pokes are in Motor City for first time in six years; they’re 5-2 in last seven series games, with average total in last four meetings, 60.8- their win in Philly last week was their first in three road games. Detroit’s special teams cost them in close loss to Cincy last week, giving up blocked 34-yard FG and then shanking punt in last minute that sent them to first loss in three home games- they’re 2-1 as home favorite this year, 10-7 in last 17 such games. In last five games, Dallas has scored TD on first drive in seven of 12 halves- impressive!!! Lions have been outscored 20-0 on first drive of games this season. Average total in Detroit’s three home games this year is 60.3, with all three going over total. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-8-1 vs spread, 2-5-1 at home; NFC East underdogs are

Giants (1-6) @ Eagles (3-4) — Vick is starting QB for Iggles here, who have now lost nine home games in a row; they’ve won eight of last ten games in this series, beating Giants 36-21 (+2.5) three weeks ago, outrushing them 140-53 with four takeaways (+4) in game where Giants had 136 penalty yards. Am guessing Vick starts after Foles was knocked silly last week by Dallas. NY lost three of last four visits here, losing by 23-10-2 points. Big Blue is on short week after getting first win in 23-7 snoozer over inept Vikings, game where Giants had only 64 rushing yards and averaged 4.7 yards/pass attempt, with TD/three FGs in four red zone drives- in their seven games, Giants are a total of -4 yards on 20 plays with two turnovers in their first drive of third quarter, so they’re not making good adjustments at halftime. Giants are 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road dogs, giving up average of 33.5 ppg away from home. Five of seven Eagle games, four of seven Giant games went over the total. NFL wide, divisional home favorites are 15-7 vs spread so far this season, 3-3 in NFC East.

Browns (3-4) @ Chiefs (7-0) — Cinderella Chiefs are last unbeaten in NFL, can get to halfway mark 8-0 with win here; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year (5-16-1 since ’07) with pair of 17-16 wins (Cowboys/Texans) at Arrowhead- they’ve given up only 7.5 ppg at home (four TDs on 46 drives). KC was minus in turnovers last week for first time this season; they’re still +11 for season. Browns are 0-4 when Weeden starts, 3-0 with Hoyer (out for year), which is why Jason Campbell might get nod here; in their last five games, Browns were outscored 35-0 on first drive of each half, outgained 467-83 on those ten drives. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-5 vs spread, 4-3 at home; AFC North underdogs are 6-4-1, 3-2-1 on foreign soil. Cleveland won three of last four series games, splitting pair (20-41/41-34) in last two visits here, but this is their first visit here since ‘09. Six of KC’s seven games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites of 4+ points are 16-10 vs spread this season.

Bills (3-4) @ Saints (5-1) — Saints won/covered last four post-bye games, scoring 42 ppg; they’re 3-0 as home favorites this year, winning 23-17/31-7/38-17 scores, and are 11-0 vs spread in last 11 home games coached by Payton (suspended in ’12). Only one of Buffalo’s seven games (37-24 loss in Cleveland on a Thursday) was decided by more than seven points; Bills are 5-2 as a dog this season, but home side covered six of their seven games (1-2 as road dogs). Buffalo scored 20+ points in every game this year, despite starting two rookie QBs (Lewis has been around a little, but had only one start before this year). NO won last three games vs Buffalo by average score of 23-7, as home side won last five series games, but this is Bills’ first visit to Bourbon Street since ’98 (they lost 19-7 to Saints in Alamodome in ’05, when Saints were displaced by the hurricane). NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC East road dogs are 2-4. Five of last six Buffalo games went over the total.

Dolphins (3-3) @ Patriots (5-2) — Miami had ball and 21-20 lead with 3:00 left last week, when sack/fumble in Fish territory set Bills up for winning FG, bitter loss for Miami team that hasn’t won since Week 3, losing last three games while allowing 29 ppg, with two of three losses by FG each (missed tying 57-yard FG at gun vs Ravens in Week 5). Dolphins lost six in row and 10 of last 12 games vs Patriots, losing last four visits here by 10-31-3-28 points. Miami is 2-1 as road dogs this year, losing 38-17 in Superdome, after opening season with mild upset wins at Cleveland/Indy. Since ’03, Belichick is 24-9 vs spread in game following a loss; NE has only one win (23-3 over winless Bucs) by more than seven points; three of its five wins are by 2 or 3 points- they’re 2-1 as home favorites, 20-15 in that role since ’09, but they’re just 10-15 vs spread in last 25 games as a divisional HF (30-19-2 as non-div. HF). Fish are 25-12-1 in last 38 games as a road dog, 9-4 in last 13 divisional games. Last five Miami games and three of last four Patriot games went over the total.

Jets (4-3) @ Bengals (5-2) — How will Cincy handle prosperity of two-game lead in AFC North? Bengals are 3-0 at home, winning by 10-4-7 points; they’re 5-2-1 in last eight games as a home favorite, 18-8-1 in game following their last 27 wins. Five of Jets’ seven games this year were decided by 7 or less points; they’re 4-2 as underdogs and are coming off home upset of Patriots, where they outgained Pats by 88 yards and were 11-21 on third down (NE was 1-12). Jets won four in row, nine of last ten games in this series, with last four wins all by 10+ points, but teams haven’t met since ’10 and Gang Green hasn’t been here since 24-14 win in ’09 playoffs. Bengals are 5-2 despite being plus in turnovers in only one game; they’ve had three takeaways in last four games, but they did block a short FG in Detroit last week. Jets are -10 in turnovers in their three losses, -1 in the four wins, but they also haven’t won two games in a row yet- their losses are by 3-25-13 points. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-4 this year, 2-2 at home; AFC East underdogs are 6-5, 2-4 on road.

Steelers (2-4) @ Raiders (2-4) — Pitt allowed only 22 points in two post-win byes (one TD on 18 drives) after being 0-4 before bye; they’re 1-2 away from home, beating Jets 19-6, losing to Cincy by 10, by 7 to Vikings in London. Since ’06, Steelers are 7-17-1 as a non-divisional road favorite. Raider QB Pryor is from western Pennsylvania, so this is special game for him, but Oakland lost its last ten post-bye games (1-9 vs spread); last time they won post-bye game was last year they made Super Bowl, ’02. Home side won five of six Raider games; they’re 2-1 at home, losing only to Redskins- they’re 2-4 as home underdog under Allen, 1-1 this year. Oakland lost three of last four games before its bye; they allowed 9-17 points in their wins, 21+ (average of 26.5) in losses. Home team won five of last six series games; Steelers lost 20-13/34-21 in last two visits here- their last win here was 1995. Three of four Oakland losses (Ind-Den-KC) are to elite teams in league, while Steelers lost to Titans/Vikings. Under is 4-1-1 in Raider games, 4-2 in Steeler games this season.

Redskins (2-4) @ Broncos (6-1) — Shanahan won two Super Bowls in Mile High City, returns here with 2-4 Redskin squad that 27+ allowed points in five of six games this year and almost lost to Bears’ backup QB at home last week when they scored 45 points. Skins’ defense may be without DB Meriwether (suspension) and against #18 in altitude, you need all the DBs you can find. Denver lost for first time in ’13 last week, despite outgaining Colts by 95 years; they were -2 in turnovers and have six giveaways (-3) in last two games, after having seven in first five games (+1); since 2006, Manning is 9-2 vs spread in game following a loss. Broncos are 3-1 as home favorites this year, winning by 22-16-32-16 points, with only non-cover when they were laying 27 to Jaguars two weeks ago. Redskins have yet to score TD (four FGs, five 3/outs) on first drive of a half. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 3-4 vs spread, 2-3 on road; AFC West favorites are 8-5, 4-3 at home. All seven Denver games went over the total; three of last four Redskin games stayed under, even with last week’s shootout.

Falcons (2-4) @ Cardinals (3-4) — Atlanta had been 22-10-2 under Smith in games with spread of 3 or less, but they’re 0-3 this year; first road game in over a month for Falcon squad that is 0-2 on road, losing both games when they failed in red zone in last 1:00, on offense in Superdome, on defense in Miami. Atlanta won six of last eight series games, but lost four of five visits here, including 30-24 loss in ’08 playoffs. Falcons won their post-bye game last week but ran ball for only 18 yards and were outgained by 46 yards by winless Bucs; they’ve been strong on first drive of a half (outscored foes 38-3) but they’ve been dreadful in clutch spots late in game. Key to Arizona offense is health of WR Fitzgerald, who caught two balls in going half-speed thru Thursday loss to SF last game; it almost makes sense for him to sit out here and get back to 100%. Cardinals outscored last three opponents 17-0 on first drive of 3rd quarter, but Arizona has yet to lead (0-6-1) at halftime this year, so they need to get off to better starts (TD/INT/4 punts on first drive of game). Last five Falcon games went over the total.

Packers (4-2) @ Vikings (1-5) — Newly acquired QB Freeman apparently got a concussion during Monday’s hideous (20-53 passing) loss in Swamp, so Ponder gets nod here, Vikings’ third different starting QB in last three games, 4th in last seven. How does team with Peterson at RB throw 53 passes and run only 14 times? Minnesota lost six of seven games to rival Packers, losing two of last three played here- they were -3 in turnovers in 24-10 playoff loss at Lambeau last January, game that Vikes outrushed Pack 167-76, but they completed only 11-30 passes as backup/current WR Webb QB’d that game. Green Bay allowed 34 points in both its losses, at SF/Cincy; they’re 3-0 since their bye, holding teams to 13 ppg (four TDs on 32 drives). Pack’s only road win in three tries was 19-17 (-3) at Baltimore when GB ran ball for 140 yards but kicked FG on both red zone drives. Minnesota had run ball for 126.8 ypg in 1-3 start, but to play so poorly in post-bye game and now to change QBs again, you have to wonder if anyone in Metrodome knows what they’re doing. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 15-7 vs spread this season.

Seahawks (7-1) @ Rams (3-4) — Kellen Clemens gets first Ram start under center with Bradford (knee) out for year, not exactly what is needed vs Seattle team that is 14-2 in last 16 series games, though they did lose two of last three visits here, with average total in their last three visits here, 28.7. 4th road game in five weeks for Seattle, with all four games in domes; Seahawks are 5-2 vs spread this year, 3-1 on road, with wins on foreign soil by 5-3-12 points and 34-28 loss at Indy (led 12-0 early). Popular wisdom is that Rams will try to run more with backup QB, but defenses will load up box and make Clemens try and beat them; Rams are 0-4 this year when scoring less than 27 points. On their first drive of game, St Louis has run 26 plays for 70 yards (2.7 ypp) for no points- they’ll need to get ahead early, to keep smallish crowd engaged. If Game 5 of World Series is going on couple of blocks away, this could be a very small crowd. Five of last six Seattle series wins are by 10+ points. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread this season. Four of last five Seattle games, six of seven St Louis tilts went over the total.

**TheGame** · 10-25-2013, 03:48 PM

NFL Trends For Week 8
By Mike Wynn Sports
Freeplays.com

Week 8 begins Thursday with the Carolina Panthers traveling to Tampa Bay to take on the winless Buccaneers. Let’s jump into this matchup and the rest of the NFL weekend and take a look at the trends and angles for week 8.

San Francisco @ Jacksonville
The 49ers are 28-15 ATS overall lately, 9-2 ATS in October, 9-3 ATS versus AFC teams, 20-8 ATS on grass and 7-1 ATS as a favorite of 8 points or more in October, but take note San Francisco is just 2-4 ATS as a double digit favorite. Jacksonville is 14-23 ATS overall, 6-12 ATS versus NFC West, 12-22 ATS as an underdog (1-6 this year), and 8-18-1 ATS versus winning teams.

Dallas @ Detroit
The Cowboys are 17-21 ATS overall lately, but they’re 6-1 ATS this year. Dallas also 9-18 ATS versus NFC opponents, 4-8 ATS coming off a divisional game, 1-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins and 1-7 ATS versus NFC North. The Lions are 10-13 ATS as a favorite, 11-18 ATS versus the NFC, 16-22 ATS overall lately, 8-15 ATS in domes, 7-14 ATS versus winning teams and 3-12 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite. However, Detroit is 7-1 ATS versus NFC East opponents. Take note that the underdog is 33-12 ATS the last 45 games.

NY Giants @ Philadelphia
NY Giants are 5-8 ATS versus divisional opponents, 1-4 ATS the week before a bye, but they’re 8-2 ATS when playing with revenge and 27-11-2 ATS in October. The Eagles are 11-16 ATS versus NFC opponents, 10-18 ATS when playing on grass, 0-6 ATS as ahome favorite off a home game and 1-7 ATS at home off a straight up loss versus an opponent playing with revenge. Philadelphia is also 4-0 ATS as a favorite offa double digit ATS loss versus a divisional opponent. Note in this series the underdog is 13-4-1 ATS the last 18 meetings and the Giants are 7-2-1 ATS the last 10 in this series.

Cleveland @ Kansas City
The Browns are 5-2 ATS as road dogs of 3½ to 7 points and 9-4 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses, but they’re also just 3-7 ATS in October and 11-16 ATS when playing on grass. Kansas City is 7-3 ATS in October, 6-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins and 12-4 ATS in week 8, but the Chiefs are also 12-16 ATS versus SFC opponents, 5-10 ATS versus losing teams, 0-6 straight up the last 6 versus AFC North and 2-9 ATS off a straight and ASTS win versus an opponent with a losing record. In this series Cleveland is 3-1 ATS the last 4.

Buffalo @ New Orleans
The Bills are 9-3 ATS as road underdogs of 10½ to 14 points, 5-2 ATS as an underdog and 8-1 ATS in the second of back to back road games, but they’re also 6-12 ATS on the road lately and 3-7 ATS versus NFC South opponents. New Orleans is 20-9 ATS in the favorite role, 16-4 ATS at home, 20-7 ATS versus AFC East opponents, 8-1 ATS after allowing 27 points or more and 11-0 ATS at home versus non-conference opponents off straight up underdog win. Worth noting that the Saints are 4-11 ATS as a double digit favorite and 4-9 ATS as a home favorite of 10½ to 14 points. Note the favorite in New Orleans games are 14-4 lately and the home team in New Orleans games are 5-1 and the home team in Buffalo games are 8-1 ATS lately.

Miami @ New England
The Dolphins are 3-6 ATS in October, but they’re 14-9 ATS in the underdog role, 11-1 ATS in week 8 and 12-5 ATS versus winning teams. New England is 16-8 ATS as a favorite of 3½ to 9½ points, 11-2 ATS after a divisional game, 22-9-1 ATS in October and 11-0 ATS at home versus AFC opponents off a straight up loss as a favorite.

NY Jets @ Cincinnati
The Jets are 5-2 ATS this year, 5-1 ATS on turf, 8-3 ATS In October, 12-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more off a straight up win and 9-2 ATS off a divisional game versus an opponent off a straight up and ATS win. However, the Jets are 4-8 ATS after a divisional game and 0-4 ATS as a non-divisional dog of 4 points or more. The Bengals are 6-3 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 4-1 ATS home favorites of 3½ to 7 points, 11-4-1 ATS overall lately, 5-0 ATS off a straight up underdog win versus an opponent off a straight up win, but Cincinnati is 2-9 ATS versus AFC East opponents. Note the home team is 7-1-1 ATS in Cincinnati games.

Pittsburgh @ Oakland
The Steelers are 15-23 ATS overall lately, 6-13 ATS the 19 on the road, 1-6 ATS in the first of back to back road games, 0-6 ATS versus AFC West, 4-9 ATS versus losing teams and 9-20 ATS on the grass. However the Steelers are 58-33 ATS in October including 8-4 Tthe last 12. Oakland comes in a dismal 30-66 ATS versus losing teams, 36-67 ATS when the posted line is 3 points or less, 7-17 ATS as home dogs of 3 points or less, 12-23 ATS versus AFC North opponents, 1-9 ATS off a bye week and 2-15 ATS in the first of back to back home games versus losing teams.

Washington @ Denver
The Redskins are 3-8 ATS in October, 13-16 ATS on grass, 11-14 ATS versus AFC West opponents and 0-7 ATS as a non-divisional underdog of 3 points or more versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or higher. Denver is 22-17 ATS overall lately, 11-4 ATS versus losing teams and 8-2 ATS versus NFC East opponents. However, the Broncos are 3-11 ATS in October and 14-21 ATS as a double digit favorite.

Atlanta @ Arizona
The Falcons are 5-8 ATS as underdogsand 1-5 ATS versus NFC West opponents, but Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in October, 15-7-1 ATS versus losing teams and 12-0 ATS on the road versus an opponent off back to back straight up losses. The Cardinals are 10-5 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 4-1 ATS versus NFC South, 3-0 ATS in week 8 and 5-0 ATS as a non-divisional conference favorite of 6 points or less off back to back straight up losses. However, Arizona is 2-9 in October and 3-7 ATS when cast in the favorite role.

Green Bay @ Minnesota
The Packers come in 19-11 ATS Versus NFC opponents, 12-2 ATS versus divisional opponents, 9-3 ATS in October, 15-8 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins and 5-0 ATS the week before playing on Monday night. The Packers, hiwever are 0-6 ATS as road favorites of 6 points or more. Minnesota is 7-0 ATS versus opponents off a straight up win. Note the home team in Green Bay games is 12-1 ATS the last 13 and the home team in this series is 5-0 the last 5 meetings.

Seattle @ St Louis
The Seahawks are 28-12 ATS overall lately, 13-7 ATS as a favorite, 22-7 ATS versus NFC opponents, 19-9 ATs on turf and 7-1 ATS as a double digit favorite. However Seattle is just 28-52 in October and 0-7 ATS as a conference favorite off an away game. St Louis is 4-2 ATS as a home dog of 10½ to 14 points, but 9-16 ATS as a double digit dog overall, 11-18 ATS versus NC opponents (0-5 last 5), 9-14 ATS playing in a dome and 0-4 ATS on Monday night. Note in the series the underdog is 5-1 ATS the last 6 and note Seattle is 9-3 ATS the last 12 versus St Louis.

Announcement

NFL Betting Info. Week 8

NFL Betting Info. Week 8

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