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NFL Total for Monday Night 10/10
Had a loser for the forum comp play this week, just added this play for tonight and am going to post it for everybody...
$300 Tampa Bay/Carolina over 46 I originally passed on this game, mainly because when I was doing my handicapping early in the week there wasn't even a line out yet because of Cam Newton's unknown status. I have delved a little deeper today and think I found some good reasons to bet this total over. First thing is both teams are pretty desperate for a win, so game plans will leave nothing behind tonight...trick plays, fake punts, stuff like that may happen tonight. The main reason I like this over though is both these teams have played good run defense so far this season, both are in the top 5 in the NFL yards/carry allowed. Neither team has their starting running back, and Tampa is down to Jaquizz Rodgers as their starting RB. The Panthers also use Cam Newton in half their running plays as either a decoy (read option) or the runner himself. I think both teams will be throwing the ball A LOT, that means lots of time stoppages for incomplete passes. Both pass defenses have been to be honest VERY BAD! While they both rank in the top 5 as run stoppers, they are 29th & 30th in the NFL in yards/pass allowed, which in my opinion is the most important pass defense stat when deciding who plays good or bad defense against the pass. Neither team is fully equipped to run the ball and I don't think they will waste much time trying to do so. That means points to me, so we are playing this OVER. LOSER (-330)
$300 Tampa Bay/Carolina over 46 I originally passed on this game, mainly because when I was doing my handicapping early in the week there wasn't even a line out yet because of Cam Newton's unknown status. I have delved a little deeper today and think I found some good reasons to bet this total over. First thing is both teams are pretty desperate for a win, so game plans will leave nothing behind tonight...trick plays, fake punts, stuff like that may happen tonight. The main reason I like this over though is both these teams have played good run defense so far this season, both are in the top 5 in the NFL yards/carry allowed. Neither team has their starting running back, and Tampa is down to Jaquizz Rodgers as their starting RB. The Panthers also use Cam Newton in half their running plays as either a decoy (read option) or the runner himself. I think both teams will be throwing the ball A LOT, that means lots of time stoppages for incomplete passes. Both pass defenses have been to be honest VERY BAD! While they both rank in the top 5 as run stoppers, they are 29th & 30th in the NFL in yards/pass allowed, which in my opinion is the most important pass defense stat when deciding who plays good or bad defense against the pass. Neither team is fully equipped to run the ball and I don't think they will waste much time trying to do so. That means points to me, so we are playing this OVER. LOSER (-330)
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