NFL Betting Info. Week 5

[TheGame]

NFL odds: Week 5 opening line report
By JASON LOGAN

If your sportsbook is currently dealing Kansas City as a 3-point favorite in Tennessee this Sunday, take a picture. According to one Las Vegas oddsmaker, it’s not going to last long.

The 4-0 Chiefs opened as field-goal faves visiting a Titans squad that just lost its hottest player. Tennessee QB Jake Locker was lighting up the scoreboards before being carted off with a hip injury during Week 4’s blowout win against the Jets.

“We originally sent out Kansas City as a short favorite but since the Locker injury, we’ve suggested a move to Chiefs -3,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “Books should likely get off three pretty quickly. With the combo of Kansas City’s success and Tennessee losing their quarterback, I don’t know where the Titans money is going to come from.”

The Chiefs have been dominant in their last two outings and coming off a 31-7 beating of the winless Giants Sunday. Korner says Kansas City may be peaking too early, but doesn’t see it taking a step back against a Tennessee team turning to veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as its backup.

“Fitzpatrick is probably a better option at backup than most teams have,” says Korner. “He’s been there before and the team will rally around him. But if things keep going K.C.’s way, why not take the Chiefs as a field-goal fave?”

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, 43)

Korner’s stable of oddsmakers sent out Indianapolis as a 3-point home underdog but the early action has trimmed that spread by half a point at some books. Seattle looked human for most of Sunday’s game with Houston, but turned it on down the stretch and squeaked out an OT win to improve to 4-0.

“We’re a little worried about two road games in a row,” Korner says of the Seahawks’ schedule. “Being on that key number was important for us. Seattle’s tight game Sunday should help keep the Seahawks money in check a bit this week.”

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7, 55)

This is shaping up to be the biggest game of the week, with the NFL’s best team taking on its most popular. Korner says the Cowboys faithful will show up but doesn’t think it will be enough to keep this spread from crossing the key number of 7.5.

“Denver looks as impressive as any team we’ve seen in recent seasons,” he says. “We had three guys bring Denver -3 to the table and one said Denver -6. We all immediately agreed on Denver -6. The Broncos can pile it on anywhere. They sky is the limit with this line.”

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 42.5)

This Sunday Night Football line could have been very different if Houston had of hung on against Seattle. But, that letdown and a sharp performance from the Niners on Thursday have oddsmakers thinking twice about San Francisco’s early struggles.

“That (Thursday) win put it in the minds of people that San Francisco can put it all together,” says Korner. “I don’t know if they’re back on track yet but if they can handle Houston, it would seem like they’re back track. On paper it should be a good game, but after Houston lost that one Sunday…”

Korner says Northern Nevada books, which get a lot of bettors from the Bay Area, should add a couple more points to this spread and hike the parlay card line to 8.5.

[TheGame]

BUFFALO (2 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 2) - 10/3/2013, 8:25 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[TheGame]

Next Sunday's Chargers at Raiders Week 5 game has been moved from 4:25 PM ET to 11:35 PM ET due to the MLB Playoffs.
The Raiders and Oakland Athletics share the same stadium. The Athletics host the Detroit Tigers on Saturday afternoon. The grounds crew will need the extra time in order to get the field ready. The game will be aired on NFL Network

[TheGame]

NFL Line Watch: Don't Play on Packers until Sunday
by Art Aronson

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to Bet Now

Jacksonville Jaguars (+13.5) at St. Louis Rams

If you think that Jacksonville can keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door vs. the Rams, then you should consider jumping on this line as soon as possible. It opened at -14 but is already dropping fast. There are still some 13.5s out there, but there are also a couple of 13s and even some 11s on the board.

Things don't get any easier for either team as St. Louis is on the road for two straight in Houston and Carolina, while Jacksonville will be in Denver next weekend, likely as the biggest underdog of the last 10 years.

The Jags have put 20 points on the board in two straight losses, while the Rams have mustered just 18 in two straight setbacks.

Jacksonville fought tough versus Seahawks on road for a half and it appears that both the public and the sharps feel that the Jaguars still have some fight left in them. Note that Jacksonville is 0-4 for the third time in franchise history and that the team has never started 0-5.

Spread to Wait on

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers(-7)

If you think the Packers can handle business versus their division rival at home then you should consider waiting until closer to game time before getting involved with this contest.

The line opened at 7.5, but quickly dropped. Green Bay is now a 7-point favorite, but there are even a few 6.5s creeping onto the board.

Divisional contests are always the most important games of the season and doubly so for the home side. The Packers are coming off their bye, having lost to the Bengals the week before.

The fact that Green Bay has surrendered 88 points over its first three games and that the Lions won 40-32 over the Bears last week is likely a big reason why both the sharps and the public continue to hammer the visitors in this one.

Total to Watch

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (55)

If you’re a fan of the Over consider waiting a bit closer to kickoff before hammering this one. This line opened at 55 but a few 54.5s have hit the board. It's obvious that neither the public nor the sharps believe these teams can muster much of an offensive attack.

Hard to blame them though as the G-Men have posted a miserable seven total points in back-to-back losses (they put up 54 over their first two setbacks), while the Eagles have managed just 36 (after posting 63 in their first two games). Despite having one win between them after the first four weeks, amazingly, the NFC East is still up for grabs.

[TheGame]

NFL Betting

Three Teams Improve to 4-0 O/U Records

Despite a high total in the Denver Broncos versus Philadelphia Eagles game, the scoreline soared past the 57.5 number as the teams combined for 72 points.

The 52-20 Broncos victory moves the club to a 4-0 Over/Under record along with a pair of other teams who saw their totals go over the number Sunday.

The Chicago Bears also moved to 4-0 O/U after their 42-30 loss to the Detroit Lions.

Joining them at that clip is the Minnesota Vikings who combined for 61 points in Minny's 34-27 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in London, England.

The Green Bay Packers, sit at 3-0 O/U.

[TheGame]

NFL Teams Off a Bye Week Covering at 54 Percent

Football bettors get their first chance to factor the bye week into their handicapping Sunday, with the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers coming off a week away from the gridiron.

The Packers are near-touchdown favorites at home to the Detroit Lions while the Panthers are set as 1-point road chalk in Arizona Sunday. Looking at the recent track record of NFL teams off the bye, you may want to get some cash down quick on these two well-rested clubs.

Since 2001, teams coming off the bye week are 201-172-3 SU and 201-166-9 ATS in the regular season – an ATS winning percentage of 54 percent. Last year, teams coming off the bye week went 15-15-2 SU and 18-14 ATS.

There has also been a slight lean toward the 'Under' when teams are playing off a bye week. Perhaps having the extra week to prepare and study film are the reasons post-bye teams are 176-196-4 over/under since 2001. Teams of a bye week went 13-19 over/under last season.

As for teams on the bye in Week 5:
Minnesota
Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay
Washington all have time off this Sunday.

[TheGame]

Chargers-Raiders Time Change Could be Boom for Books

If you’re betting the San Diego-Oakland game this Sunday, you may want to put on a pot of coffee or two. Or maybe just take a personal day Monday.

Due to complications with the MLB playoff schedule, which has the Oakland A’s playing hosts at O.co Coliseum Saturday, the Bolts-Raiders Sunday matchup has been bumped from a 4:25 p.m. ET start to a late night 11:35 p.m. ET start – 8:35 p.m. PT. The process of switching O.co Coliseum from a baseball to a football venue takes roughly 24 hours.

The extra late game could mean big profits for sportsbooks. Having one more game on the board following a full day of NFL football and the Sunday Night Football contest could funnel all that action into the San Diego-Oakland handle.

This AFC West rivalry wasn’t the most tantalizing game on the Week 5 board and its original start time was up against the Denver-Dallas game as well as other late afternoon matchups. According to Peter Childs of Sportsbook, the shift to a standalone, nationally televised game (NFL Network) will draw in a much bigger betting audience.

“Anytime you get a standalone NFL game, volume increases dramatically,” Childs. “Now that the game is being played late, with no competition for eyeballs and viewership, I believe our betting volume could potentially increase by 40 percent.”

In Las Vegas, sportsbooks are excited that there is one more game on the board following the Sunday nighter but don’t expect the same increase in handle as the online markets.

According to Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, the San Diego-Oakland game will detract some action from the Sunday nighter between Houston and San Francisco, and pretty much balance out what they would normally take for the late Sunday game.

“That late on a Sunday night we won’t have that many guests waiting around for the 5:30 p.m. game to end to play the 8:30 p.m. game,” says Sherman. “It will make the decision on the game larger for us considering all the day’s prior parlays will be left going to it, rather than having it mixed in as part of the afternoon.”

As for the odds for Sunday’s “midnight special”, Oakland opened as a 5-point home underdog but has since been moved to +4.5. The total is the biggest concern with oddsmakers due to the time change.

Childs says that since this game is now a single nationally televised contest, he’s added another half point to the total – 44 to 44.5 – to protect from the public trend of betting the Over in these night games. The book is also offering far more props and alternative wagers than it normally would if the game started at its original time.

“Instead of being available for just West Coast viewers or bettors with the NFL package, it’s going to see way more betting action,” he adds.

[TheGame]

PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the NY Giants last 17 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

NEW ORLEANS vs. CHICAGO
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

DETROIT vs. GREEN BAY
Detroit is 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Green Bay's last 25 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

KANSAS CITY vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City

NEW ENGLAND vs. CINCINNATI
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

JACKSONVILLE vs. ST. LOUIS
Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

BALTIMORE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore

SEATTLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games
Indianapolis is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

CAROLINA vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

DENVER vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games on the road
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home

HOUSTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Francisco's last 11 games
San Francisco is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home

SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
Oakland is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego

NY JETS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Jets last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home

[TheGame]

NFL Gambling Preview: Philadelphia at New York
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Philadelphia at New York Giants
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: NY Giants -1 O/U 55
CRIS Current: NY Giants -2 O/U 53
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Philadelphia

The high flying Eagles offense has been shut down in each of the last two weeks. First Kansas City’s elite stop unit forced six Philly turnovers while holding Chip Kelly’s offense to 16 points. Then last week, at Denver, the Eagles were forced to settle for crucial early field goals, continuing a trend of red zone failures. Philly’s trend of ‘lots of yards, not so many points’ continued.

But after facing the Chiefs and Broncos defenses in back-to-back weeks, this is a major step down in class for the Eagles offense against the struggling Giants stop unit. The Giants yards-per-play numbers aren’t bad, holding foes to 5.3 ypp in contrast to the Eagles 6.0 ypp allowed (only five teams are worse). But those ypp numbers are skewed, because in the second half of each of their first four games, the Giants opponent has enjoyed a big lead, just looking to run out the clock. In fact, the Giants have trailed by 17 points or more in all four previous contests.

This has been an underdog series, with the dog cashing winning bets in four of the last five meetings. The only exception came in last year’s meaningless season finale for both teams, a game where Eli Manning threw four touchdown passes before halftime of a 42-7 win for the G-men as 6.5 point favorites. The Eagles are a very different team now in terms of chemistry and motivation than they were down the stretch of Andy Reid’s last season in Philadelphia.

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Giants suspect offensive line over the past week. Center David Baas is hurt. Guard Chris Snee is hurt. Tackle David Diehl is less than 100%, no sure thing to suit up or to be effective here. That leaves rookies and inexperience galore on the line, with Justin Pugh, Brandon Mosely, James Brewer and Jim Cordle – not exactly a who’s who of elite linemen – in the mix for extended playing time on the OL this Sunday.

Last year’s second half meltdown filled with ugly late season losses exposed a leadership void in the Giants locker room. They laid down and quit early when trailing in each of their last two ballgames. And the G-men are now 3-9 SU and ATS since their 6-2 start to the season last year. Six of their last eight losses have come by 18 points or more; non-competitive efforts.

Last week, the Giants pulled out all the stops to compete at KC. Here are some pre-game quotes from prior to that contest. Victor Cruz: “I think the better Giants team is going to show up this week. I think it’s a different mindset. I think this is where we turn the page and kind of make a good run and get a couple of wins under our belt.

Locker room leader Antrel Rolle: “We put ourselves in this situation. Not anyone else. I’ve been out there Sunday when it’s been going down. At the same time, we’re not worried about what has taken place. There is nothing we can do, no matter how hard we try, no matter how hard we pray, no matter how many times we blink our eyes, nothing is going to take back that 0-3 start. It is what it is. But we can control what happens this day going forward.”

So to see the Giants lay another complete egg in that ballgame tells us very clearly that this is not a team that should be favored. It’s not like this homefield is particularly strong; and it’s not like Philadelphia has a similar ‘we’re done’ mindset, sitting just a game out of first place.

[TheGame]

Where the action is: Books dread 4-point finish in Cleveland


The Buffalo Bills visit the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football. Sure, it’s not the sexiest matchup on the schedule, but games like these are why we bet on sports.


We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on the Thursday nighter, getting info on the sharp and public money, recent adjustments and where the odds could end up come kickoff:


Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns – Open: -3, Move: -4.5, Move: -3.5


Books opened Cleveland between -3 and -3.5 last Sunday. Those who went with the straight field-goal spread took immediate sharp money on the Browns, hanging a hook on the Thursday night line.


Action slowly came in on both sides during the week, but the public started leaning toward the home side forcing books to go to -4.5. According to Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag, wiseguys came back on the Bills Thursday morning, trimming the line to -4.


“Four is the right number on this game and I can't imagine us moving off that number any time soon,” Stewart tells Covers. “Action has been great, with sharps and the public on both sides. So again, no need to move it.”


Aron Black of Bet365.com says action on the Bills is now outnumbering money on the Browns at a 2/1 rate. Buffalo is also taking the majority of moneyline bets as well, sitting at +165 to win outright Thursday night.


“I don’t think many would have had both these teams at .500 for this game,” says Black. “The Browns defense has to keep the run at bay and hope that they can start to get their ground game going against a weak run defense in Buffalo.”


As for Thursday total, books opened the number at 41.5 and took instant action on the Under, bringing the over/under down to 40.5. Buffalo is 2-2 O/U on the year while Cleveland is 1-3 O/U. The Under has cashed in four of their last five meetings.


“Basically tonight’s a great game to book solid two-way action on both the side and the total,” says Stewart. “We'll make money on this game as long as it doesn't land on four.”

[TheGame]

Capping the calendar: October's best/worst NFL bets

Although the rosters change with each season, NFL teams have a tendency of repeating themselves – especially when it comes to the pointspread wars.

With the leaves starting to fall, let’s take a look at some of the good and bad pro football team trends that have occurred in the month of October in the NFL since 1990.

HOME TEAMS

• Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh will definitely be tested to keep this long stretch of excellent play going (28-15 ATS) with this year’s squad. They will be home just once and that will be a bitter battle with Baltimore.

Even when Kansas City has been dreadful, it still managed to play well at Arrowhead with a 27-18 ATS mark. The Chiefs will have three chances to improve on this record with Oakland, Houston and Cleveland coming to town.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): After making the playoffs the past two years, and starting 2-0 SU and ATS at Paul Brown Stadium in 2013, Cincinnati will be after real improvement on a 14-27 ATS mark this month again New England and the Jets.


AWAY TEAMS

• Good: Atlanta has been regarded as a great bet at home team for a number of years now, but actually the Falcons are 27-13 ATS as visitors in October. They will have one chance to prove themselves in Arizona the last Sunday of the month.

• Keep an eye on (Good): The last time the New York Giants looked this bad was the latter two-thirds of the 2009 season. Nevertheless, the G-Men have been money on the road and they will seek to improve upon 26-14 ATS record. They will undoubtedly be catching points at Chicago and at Philadelphia.

New England is a crisp 25-16 ATS in road affairs and tough test in Cincinnati and a return match in New Jersey with the Jets, where they are 12-2 ATS.

• Bad: Arizona is a historically odious road team no matter the time of year, but this month, the Cardinals are an insufferable 12-24 ATS. The lone trip to San Francisco does not figure to be pleasant for the Cards.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Here we find two teams with a lousy past in October. One figures to improve and the other, not so much. Seattle (16-31 ATS) will be in the road uniforms three times, twice against division foes Arizona and St. Louis.

Thanks to a bye week, Tampa Bay (14-26 ATS) only has to travel to Atlanta for a road excursion this month of year.


FAVORITES

• Keep an eye on (Good): Given how St. Louis has played this season, it be difficult for the Rams to improve on 19-11 ATS record this month. Looking at the schedule, they will only have one chance when they are home against Jacksonville on Oct. 6.

• Bad: Because of a Halloween encounter, Cincinnati will play five games in October. The Bengals have been inconsistent and might not be favored as often as was once presumed. They will likely be a small favorite versus Buffalo and a larger favorite at home against the Jets. This is probably more than enough, as Cincy is 8-18 ATS supplying others with points.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Tampa Bay is in the midst of another miserable campaign, which is exactly how the Bucs play in the role of favorites with a 15-25 ATS mark. We will see what oddsmakers think of the Bucs at home against Philadelphia and Carolina and wager accordingly.


UNDERDOGS

• Good: Given how Pittsburgh and the New York Giants have played thus far, their past history acknowledges they are almost nicely suited to be underdogs. The Steelers are 20-7 ATS and the Giants are 20-9 ATS, unfortunately in most cases it was with far better teams than what we have seen in 2013.

• Keep an eye on (Good): For years, Carolina has relished the underdog role in the second month of the season with a 25-14 spread record. Depending on circumstances, the Panthers might not have many opportunities, with trips to Minnesota and Tampa Bay the only possibilities.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): The Vikings are 12-22 ATS on the receiving end of points and could be in this role at the N.Y. Giants and home versus Green Bay the second half of the month.


DIVISION

• Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta may be off is a disappointing start, yet is 20-11 ATS in division conflicts and has the Buccaneers at home on Oct. 20.

The New York football Giants are 23-12 ATS and will have two chances to turn their season around with a home and home against the Eagles.

[TheGame]

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, October 6

Kansas City at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 8-21 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less
Tennessee: 41-22 OVER in October games

Baltimore at Miami, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 49-31 UNDER in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
Miami: 6-0 UNDER in October games

Jacksonville at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 4-12 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
St Louis: 11-1 ATS in home games after 4 or more ATS consecutive losses

New England at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
New England: 100-70 ATS in road games
Cincinnati: 30-48 ATS in October games

Seattle at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 71-15 OVER when they score 28 or more points
Indianapolis: 80-17 OVER when they allow 28 or more points

Detroit at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 1-10 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Green Bay: 11-2 ATS versus division opponents

New Orleans at Chicago, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 12-3 ATS off a home win
Chicago: 19-34 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game

Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game
NY Giants: 6-0 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive unders

Carolina at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Carolina: 51-30 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Arizona: 13-4 OVER after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points

San Diego at Oakland, 11:35 ET
San Diego: 57-36 ATS after 2 or more consecutive ATS wins
Oakland: 21-40 ATS in home games versus division opponents

Denver at Dallas, 4:25 ET
Denver: 14-5 ATS in all lined games
Dallas: 0-6 ATS in home games off 1 or more straight overs

Houston at San Francisco, 8:30 ET
Houston: 21-9 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 6-18 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game

[TheGame]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 5
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 5:

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)

Ravens’ pass rush vs. Dolphins’ poor protection

The Ravens offense is sputtering but the defense remains the backbone of the franchise. Outside of the 49 points given up to Denver in Week 1, Baltimore has allowed an average of 12.6 points and 170.3 passing yards over the past three weeks. A big part of that has been the pass rush, which has a total of 13 sacks on the year, led by veteran LB Terrell Suggs with four QB kills.

Miami’s run game has been stuck in mud, so the Fins find themselves leaning on second-year QB Ryan Tannehill to move the chains. With that knowledge, opposing defenses have unleashed hell on the Dolphins offensive line, which has allowed an NFL-worst 18 sacks. Tannehill has two fumbles on the year and 15 fumbles – losing seven – in his first 20 career starts.

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, 56)

Broncos’ big-play passing vs. Cowboys’ sucky secondary

The Cowboys’ new Tampa-2 defense has been good between the chains but has been burned over and over again with the deep ball. Dallas is giving up 7.2 yards per pass play and 10.9 yards per completion. It gave up a 26-yard TD toss and a 56-yard TD strike against San Diego last week and nearly let a Week 1 win slip away due to the Giants’ deep threats.

Denver’s offense is airing it out on opponents, averaging an NFL-best 363.8 passing yards and 44.8 points per game. Quarterback Peyton Manning has been killing defenses with 9.42 yards per attempt and, while he’s done most of his damage with short, quick throws, Manning will find plenty of opportunities to exploit a weak Cowboys secondary Sunday.

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 41.5)

Texans’ red-zone weakness vs. 49ers’ rejuvenated offense

Houston’s defense ranks tops in the league in yards against, giving up just 254.2 yards per game, fueled by a pass defense that also tops the NFL with 141 yards allowed. However, the biggest chink in the Texans’ armor is its red-zone defense, which has buckled for touchdowns on 88.8 percent of its foes’ trips inside the 20-yard line.

San Francisco’s offense took a little while to get going but found its stride versus St. Louis last Thursday. The Niners scored touchdowns on all three trips to the red zone in their win over the Rams, improving to a 63.64 percent TD rate inside the 20-yard line on the season. The return of TE Vernon Davis helped, catching a 12-yard pitch from Colin Kaepernick, and Frank Gore finding his stride gives San Fran plenty of options in the red zone.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+4, 45)

Chargers’ TE Antonio Gates vs. Raiders’ terrible TE defense

There’s plenty of tread left on the tires of Chargers TE Antonio Gates. After being slowed by injuries the past few years, Gates is back to his old tricks this year. He reeled in 10 catches for 136 yards and a massive 56-yard score versus Dallas last Sunday and TD catches in his last two games. The Bolts’ big man has rolled the Raiders in the past, totaling 1,098 yards and 11 TDs on 80 career catches.

Oakland’s defense has been beat up by tight ends already this season, with Jaguars TE Clay Harbor and Broncos TE Julius Thomas each finding the end zone against the Raiders. The Silver and Black are assigning backup safety Brandian Ross to Gates with starter Tyvon Branch out of action. Ross is 6-foot-1 but will dwindle in jump-balls with the 6-foot-4, 260-pound Gates.

[TheGame]

Week 5 NFL Trends
By Mike Wynn

Kansas City @ Tennessee.
Kansas City is 4-0 ATS off a straight win versus a non-conference opponent off a straight up loss, they’re 5-1 ATS versus AFC South opponents, 5-2 ATS in October and 4-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins. The Chiefs, however, are 2-6 ATS lately in the favorite role. The Titans are just 3-16-1 ATS versus AFC West opponents including 0-10 ATS as an underdog, they’re just 1-6 ATS at home off a home win, 2-9 ATS versus winning teams and 2-8 ATS after scoring 34 points or more.

Baltimore @ Miami.
The Ravens are 2-5 ATS in October, but the Black Birds are also 21-12 ATS as road dogs of 3 points or less, 11-5 ATS versus winning teams, 22-14 ATS versus AFC East opponents, 11-3-1 ATS as an underdog versus AFC East opponents, 17-8-1 ATS as a dog after losing as a favorite and 5-0 ATS overall off a loss. The Dolphins are 11-5 ATS when the posted line is 3 points or less either way and 10-4 ATS after a straight up loss. Miami is also 4-15 straight up versus AFC North opponents and 0-6 ATS versus AFC North opponents lately. Miami is also a bankroll depleting 73-95 ATS at home and 80-97 ATS when in the favorite role. Take note that the home team is 21-10 ATS in Miami’s last 31 games, but the Dolphins are also 10-3 ATS the last 13 in this series with Baltimore.

Jacksonville @ St Louis.
The Jaguars 10-6 ATS as a double digit dog, 7-1 ATS after scoring 7 points or less when facing an opponent off a straight up and ATS loss and 5-1 ATS after giving up 35 points or more. However, Jacksonville is also 11-20 ATS overall in the underdog role, 2-6 ATS versus NFC opponents and 33-41 ATS in October. The Rams are 4-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses, 0-5 ATS as a favorite and 2-9 ATS after playing San Francisco, but St Louis is also a huge 17-2 ATS versus a team off 3 straight up losses in a row with the last loss being by double digits. Note in the series that St Louis is 3-0 ATs the last 3.

New England @ Cincinnati.
The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in the 2nd game of back to back road games, 32-11-1 ATS as an underdog, 11-5 ATS on the road, 8-1 ATS in week 5, 60-44 ATS when the line is 3 points or less and 6-0 ATS as an underdog or favorite of 2 points or less versus an AFC North opponent. However, New England is 2-5-1 ATS overall versus AFC North opponents lately. Cincinnati is 10-1 ATS as a non-divisional home underdog, but they’re 1-8 ATS straight up and ATS versus AFC East opponents, 1-8 ATS off a straight up divisional road loss, 75-94 ATS at home, 32-49 ATS off a divisional loss including 0-5 lately and the Bengals are just 8-21 ATS in October. Note in this series New Engalnd is 7-1 straight up including 3-0 straight and ATS in the last 3.

Seattle @ Indianapolis.
The Seahawks are 27-10 ATS overall, 11-5 ATS as a favorite, 14-6 ATS when the line is 3 points or less either way, 12-1 ATS versus winning teasm, 18-7 ATS on turf and 8-1 ATS as a non-conference favorite off back to back straight up wins. The Colts are 10-2 ATS off a straight up road win, 8-1 ATS off back to back straight up and ATS wins, 11-5 ATS overall lately and 10-3 ATS at home. Indianapolis is also just 1-8 ATS as a non-conference underdog versus an opponent off back to back straight up and ATS wins. Note in the series Indaianpolis is 3-1 ATS the last 4 meetings.

Detroit @ Green Bay.
The Lions are 11-17 ATs versus NFC opponents, 7-11 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS off a straight win versus a rested team, but Detroit is also 6-2 ATS in October. Green Bay coming off a bye week is 10-2 ATS. They’re also 9-1 ATS off a straight up and ATS loss, 16-3 ATS as a favorite of less than 7 points, 31-13 Overall under McCarthy, 14-5 ATS at home, 11-2 ATS versus NFC North, 22-11 ATS as a favorite overall and 7-1 ATS the game after allowing 30 or more points. Note in this series Green Bay is 12-1 straight up and 10-3 ATS versus Detroit and the packers are 11-4-1 ATS at Lambeau versus Detroit.

New Orleans @ Chicago.
The Saints are 5-1 ATS versus NFC North, 23-14 ATS the last 37 overall, 14-5 ATS off a straight up win, 10-5 ATS versus winning teams, 9-1 ATS off a double digit Monday night win and they’re now 12-0 ATS with Payton running the show. However, New Orleans is 3-12-1 ATS in week 5. Chicago just 6-18-1 ATS as a pick or favorite, 4-8 ATS versus winning teams, 7-10 ATs at home, 10-16 ATS versus NFC opponents and 1-7 straight up and 0-6-2 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite. In the series New Orleans is 4-1-1 ATS the last 6.

Philadelphia @ NY Giants.
The eagles are 5-17 ATS straight up and ATS off a loss, 5-12 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 12-23 ATS overall the last 35, 1-4 ATS after allowing 30 or more points, 7-18-1 ATS off an ATS loss and 5-15-1 ATS overall the last 21 games. NY Giants are 8-14 ATS as a favorite, but 25-10-1 ATS in October. Note in this series the underdog s 13-3-1 ATS the last 17. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS the last 5 and the Eagles are 4-1 ATS the last 5 trips to New York.

Carolina @ Arizona.
The Panthers are 6-2 ATS on the road, 5-1 ATS after scoring 35 or more points and 5-1 ATS versus NFC opponents. However, the Panthers are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite versus a non-divisional opponent off a straight up and ATS win. Arizona is 21-14 ATS as a home underdog overall, 4-1 as a home dog of 3 points or less and 7-0 ATs as a home dog versus an opponent with a sub 500 record, but the Cardinals are also 1-7 ATS in October, 2-5 ATS at home and 0-6 ATS off a straight up underdog win versus a losing team.

San Diego @ Oakland.
The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in October, 7-11 ATS as a favorite, 0-4 ATS as a divisional road favorite of more than 5 points and 0-7 ATS as a road favorite after a game in which they had an ATS win of 7 points or more, but thye’re 4-1 ATS as a divisional road favorite of less than 5 points. The Raiders are 7-13 ATS as home dogs of 3½ to 7 points, but they’re just 7-1-1 ATS as a home dog off a straight up and ATS loss and 9-2 ATS versus San Diego when coming off 2 or more losses. In this series San Diego is 8-2 ATS in Oakland, the road team is 5-0 ATS the last 5 and the underdog is 8-0 ATS the last 8. Also note the favorite is 10-2 ATS in Oakland games lately and the visitor in San Diego games is 8-2-1.

Denver @ Dallas.
The Broncos are just 3-8 ATS in October, but Denver is also 10-1 ATS as a favorite of 3½ to 9½ points, 14-6 ATS as a favorite, 14-3 ATS overall, 17-9 ATS versus NFC East opponents, 12-6 ATS on the road and 11-3 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins. Dallas is 14-21 ATS the last 35 overall and 5-13 ATS at home, but the Cowboys are also 4-0 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or more, 8-4 ATS as a home dog of 3½ to 7 points and 7-3 ATS versus AFC opponents. Note in the series that Denver is 7-1 ATS last 8 meetings with Dallas and note Broncos head man John Fox is 10-1 ATS off a double digit win versus an opponent off a straight up loss as a favorite.

Houston @ San Francisco.
The Texans are 1-4 ATS as an underdog of 3 to 9½ points, 2-6 ATS versus NFC West opponents and they’re 3-11 ATS overall the last 14. However, Houston is 35-16 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses and 21-9 ATS on grass. San Francisco is 12-5 ATS as a favorite of 3½ to 9½ points, 14-6 ATS the last 20 at home, 6-2 ATS in October and 7-3 ATS versus AFC, but they’re just 2-8 ATS as favorites of 3 or more points versus AFC opponents.

NY Jets @ Atlanta.
The Jets are 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 3½ to 9½ points, 3-9 ATS versus NFC opponents, 3-13 ATS as an underdog after allowing 35 points or more and 0-5 ATS as underdogs of 4 points or more. The Falcons are 6-11 ATS when playing on Monday night and 3-10-1 ATS overall the last 14, but the dirty birds are also 12-5 ATS at home off a loss including 5-0 ATS at home off a home loss, 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more versus AFC opponents and 7-1 ATS as a favorite in the second of back to back home games. Note Atlanta head coach Mike Smith is 16-0 ATS off a loss of 6 points or more.

[TheGame]

NFL Trends & Angles – Week 5
Insiderangles.com

The final week of September treated our NFL Trends & Angles fairly well as all qualifying plays went a collective 17-12-1, 58.6 percent ATS. Now that we have reached the month of October, our Trends & Angles will no longer feature September trends only as we are now ready to unwrap some of our favorite year-round angles that are applicable for the whole season.

Not surprisingly to those of you that have followed us in the past, the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ whenever we have total angles. Ironically, our first angle this week is one of our few that actually points to favorites as this is the time of year when byes have begun, but the rest of the trends do fit the “ugly” mold.

Also, while we went back to 2000 for our September angles for the sake of sample sizes, we will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

One final reminder is that you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.

So without further ado, here are our first season-long NFL Trends & Angles for 2013, with all records being for the last eight seasons since 2005 plus the first four weeks of this season.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (85-48-4, 63.9% ATS): This is the one of our few angles that is not contrarian in nature. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and the added time off oftentimes has resulted in any injured players the teams may have also having extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifiers: Carolina -1 and Green Bay -7.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (143-80-5, 64.1% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifiers: Baltimore +2½, Philadelphia +1 and New York Jets +9½ (Monday).

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (180-116-6, 60.8% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Baltimore +2½, New England +1 and Philadelphia +1.

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (73-52-5, 59.1% ATS since 2005): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (41-27-1, 60.3 percent), although we are not quite comfortable enough with that smallish sample size to present it as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been profitable at 34-25-4, 57.6 percent ATS. Qualifiers: Houston +7 and New York Giants -1. Please note that the Jacksonville Jaguars and St. Louis Rams also qualify, but they are facing each other.

Play on any Bad Team on the road that was an underdog in each of its last four games (102-71-2, 59.0% ATS): Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a nice sampling. Qualifiers: Buffalo +4 (Thursday), Jacksonville +11½ and San Diego -4.

Play on any team that lost its last game by 28 or more points (77-48-4, 61.6% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. Qualifiers: Jacksonville +11½ and Philadelphia +1.