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SDQL Week 12 (Rivalry week / Thanksgiving)

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  • #1

    SDQL Week 12 (Rivalry week / Thanksgiving)

    Thanksgiving week

    starting with a MAC-specific Thankgsiving week opposing a bad home team vs a road team that runs the ball >27 times/game (play on Eastern Michigan +5.5)

    10-13-0 (-6.91, 43.5%)
    1-22-0 (-9.91, 4.3%) avg line: -3.0 +6: 8-14-1 (36.4%) -6: 1-22-0 (4.3%) +10: 11-12-0 (47.8%) -10: 1-22-0 (4.3%)
    5-17-1 (-8.74, 22.7%) avg total: 55.5 +6: 2-21-0 (8.7%) -6: 8-15-0 (34.8%) +10: 2-21-0 (8.7%) -10: 10-11-2 (47.6%)
    40.7 172.9 29.5 179.4 16.2 1.8 2.8 6.5 4.6 6.0 19.9
    39.2 184.9 27.8 206.6 17.3 1.1 5.8 8.6 6.6 5.8 26.8
    Nov 21, 2023 box Tuesday 13 2023 BUF EMCH home 35.5
    some similarities to the one above is 5-27 ATS play against MAC home team on Tgiving week (play on EMU +5.5, BGSU -2.5)

    14-18-0 (-8.91, 43.8%)
    5-27-0 (-9.23, 15.6%) avg line: -0.3 +6: 13-18-1 (41.9%) -6: 4-28-0 (12.5%) +10: 16-16-0 (50.0%) -10: 4-28-0 (12.5%)
    9-20-3 (-6.97, 31.0%) avg total: 54.7 +6: 4-28-0 (12.5%) -6: 14-18-0 (43.8%) +10: 3-29-0 (9.4%) -10: 16-13-3 (55.2%)
    40.1 161.1 29.7 173.6 15.9 1.8 3.7 6.5 4.1 5.2 19.4
    39.4 188.2 28.4 212.3 17.2 1.2 6.3 8.7 7.4 5.9 28.3
    Nov 21, 2023 box Tuesday 13 2023 BUF EMCH home
    Nov 21, 2023 box Tuesday 13 2023 WMCH BOWL home
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Last edited by Chamblin; 11-21-2023, 10:25 PM.

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    • #3

      Comment

      • #4
        Thanksgiving Thursday oppose home team in game 12 since 2009 (1-13-1 = on Ole Miss and UNDER) = home teams avg 18ppg

        3-12-0 (-11.60, 20.0%)
        1-13-1 (-10.03, 7.1%) avg line: 1.6 +6: 5-8-2 (38.5%) -6: 1-14-0 (6.7%) +10: 9-6-0 (60.0%) -10: 1-14-0 (6.7%)
        2-13-0 (-6.93, 13.3%) avg total: 55.3 +6: 1-14-0 (6.7%) -6: 4-10-1 (28.6%) +10: 1-14-0 (6.7%) -10: 8-7-0 (53.3%)
        35.6 134.4 33.8 204.6 17.9 2.4 4.7 4.3 1.6 7.3 18.4
        40.4 172.7 30.4 229.1 19.3 1.6 4.1 9.9 8.0 8.0 30.0
        Nov 23, 2023 box Thursday 13 2023 MSST MIS home 10.0 55.5

        Comment

        • #5
          RT,
          Good find on E. Mich & Bowling Green

          Comment

          • #6

            sides ATS:
            27-2 = on Ohio, Penn St, SMU (Tgiving week big fav with total <=46.5...watch SMU total)
            68-11 = on MISS, NoILL, WKY, WVU, CLEM, WYO, Fresno (Nov final week opp home dog system)
            17-0 = on Navy (Navy conf game 16.5+ dog did not lose by 5+ last meeting)
            38-13 = on UGA (against ACC non conf home dog or small fav
            45-12 = on Navy, Air Force (Armed Forces dog system, AFA = 13-4, NAV = 15-5)
            80-24 = on Iowa (low total away, lost h2h last meeting)
            33-10 = on BC, UVA, SoCar (oppose ACC away off home, high total)
            32-6 = on SD State (oppose fav off loss as 3TD fav)
            55-22 = on FSU (oppose team on 3rd straight week vs ranked)
            34-6 = on Maryland (oppose fav or small dog scored <10 points L2 games)
            33-14 = on Coastal (oppose late season off OT loss and won h2h last meeting)
            207-110 = on FSU, SoBama (away fav off great defense vs opp off b2b terrible defense)
            44-16 = on GaSo (opp home fav off b2b conf dog win vs opp off loss)
            28-8 = on Ohio St (oppose late season unbeaten top 8 fav, won by DD last year, opp DD fav last week)
            28-4 = on FSU, WVU, Fresno (late NOV oppose home dog on huge losing streak, not 18+ dog)

            totals:
            85-157 ou (3-9 ou) = WVU/BAY under
            356-571 ou (13-15 ou) = PUR/IND u, JVST/NMST u, WVU/BAY u
            26-68 ou (5-7 ou) = JMAD/CSTC u (OT under system)
            498-720 ou (22-29 ou) = AUB/ALA u, PUR/IND u, LIB/UTEP u, JVST/NMST u, WVU/BAY u
            18-51 ou (2-1 ou) = ORE/ORST under
            10-46 ou (2-1 ou) = ALA/AUB u, SMU/NAVY u
            26-4 ou = RUT/MD over

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            • #7
              Thanks !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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              • #8
                team = MIS and o:team = MSST and season >=2017


                0-6 o/u (-14.75)

                biggest dog lone single digit margin


                https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



                miss under 54.5



                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #9
                  team =IOWA and date >=20231014 and p:points >=10 and po:points >=10

                  iowa
                  10/14/23
                  p: scored >=10
                  po:scored >=10

                  0-2 o/u (-14.00)

                  15-6 (33.5)
                  10-7 (32.5)

                  line falls nicely in the middle but of course total never been this low .. action bet


                  https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                  iowa under

                  24.5 (game) lol

                  half unit
                  Last edited by bleeker; 11-23-2023, 11:16 PM.
                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    friday after tg
                    home
                    op: turnover margin -2 or -3
                    not on a >=4 gm losing streak
                    p: points >=21
                    total <=74

                    13-0 (10.12)


                    4 games qualify but only playing 2 ..the others (akr,mich st) are on the fringes with side and total..tops I'd do a .33 unit parlay for a little action ..don't want to lose a full unit if both go down


                    quite a difference small dogs to favorites so I'd tilt it towards tulane


                    https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                    tul -3 /1.25 units
                    ark +9 /.75 units




                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      for ML parlays, teasers....

                      med-big home dogs after a SU win as a 16.5+ dog are 1-29 SU in the next game when opponent is off a game they played worse than expected (against New Mexico)

                      1-29-0 (-20.43, 3.3%)
                      6-23-1 (-6.67, 20.7%) avg line: 13.8 +6: 16-14-0 (53.3%) -6: 3-27-0 (10.0%) +10: 23-7-0 (76.7%) -10: 1-29-0 (3.3%)
                      8-10-1 (4.34, 44.4%) avg total: 51.8 +6: 6-13-0 (31.6%) -6: 15-4-0 (78.9%) +10: 5-14-0 (26.3%) -10: 17-2-0 (89.5%)
                      32.9 122.4 34.3 216.7 18.4 1.9 4.3 6.5 3.3 4.9 19.0
                      42.2 229.8 28.7 222.3 18.4 1.3 8.0 11.6 8.1 9.5 39.4
                      Nov 24, 2023 box Friday 13 2023 NMX UTST home 5.5 59.5

                      Comment

                      • #12

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                        • #13
                          osu
                          ore
                          p: scored 19-52
                          p: <=2 interceptions
                          total <=65
                          2006

                          9-0 (15.50)

                          1 overtime of 13 pts..game was 12.5 over in regulation


                          https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                          osu over 62
                          _______________________________________________
                          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                          Comment

                          • #14

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              saturday
                              after tg
                              home
                              rank 2-4
                              p: not exactly 1 less turnover

                              11-0 o/u (19.59)

                              no overtimes

                              51 pt spread range in sample and the two single digit margins were the way out high lines



                              https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                              mich over 46.5 /.75u *
                              was over 66/1.25 u *

                              * mich on fringes of both line and total so want more on wash

                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment

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