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SDQL Week 11

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  • #1

    SDQL Week 11

    going back to last year teams are perfect in covers at home when off a shutout win and not laying 30+ (on Iowa -3, Mia OH -8.5)

    po:points=0 and date>20221105 and H and line>-30
    11-1-0 (23.83, 91.7%)
    10-0-2 (12.92, 100.0%) avg line: -10.9

    https://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?_qt=games&sdql=po%3Apoints%3D0+and+date>2022 1105+and+H+and+line>-30+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

    Tags: None
  • #2
    some FBS/FCS this week so look out for teams favored by 29+ with a total <50. These games go OVER at a 83% clip. This year is 7-1-1 ou

    watching for aTm vs Abilene Christian, FSU vs UNA, Bama vs Chatty, and Sacred Heart vs UCONN


    total<50 and line<-28.5 and o:division!=FBS
    93-3-0 (36.23, 96.9%)
    55-40-1 (1.01, 57.9%) avg line: -35.2
    78-16-2 (10.24, 83.0%)
    Sep 23, 2023 box Saturday 4 2023 MIAO DSU home 17-7 17-6 21-7 7-0 62-20 -40.5 49.5 42 1.5 32.5 17.0 15.5 W W O 0
    Sep 09, 2023 box Saturday 2 2023 NAVY WAG home 7-0 10-0 0-0 7-0 24-0 -43.5 49.0 24 -19.5 -25.0 -22.2 -2.8 W L U 0
    Sep 09, 2023 box Saturday 2 2023 DUKE LAF home 7-7 14-0 14-0 7-0 42-7 -42.5 49.0 35 -7.5 0.0 -3.8 3.8 W L P 0
    Sep 09, 2023 box Saturday 2 2023 MCST RICH home 7-0 10-0 21-0 7-14 45-14 -29.5 43.5 31 1.5 15.5 8.5 7.0 W W O 0
    Sep 09, 2023 box Saturday 2 2023 BYU SUT home 6-3 21-0 7-7 7-6 41-16 -30.5 46.5 25 -5.5 10.5 2.5 8.0 W L O 0
    Sep 09, 2023 box Saturday 2 2023 ARMY DSU home 15-0 21-0 7-0 14-0 57-0 -39.5 44.0 57 17.5 13.0 15.2 -2.2 W W O 0
    Sep 08, 2023 box Friday 2 2023 IND INST home 21-0 3-7 7-0 10-0 41-7 -31.0 44.0 34 3.0 4.0 3.5 0.5 W W O 0
    Sep 02, 2023 box Saturday 1 2023 PIT WOF home 7-0 21-0 10-0 7-7 45-7 -37.5 49.5 38 0.5 2.5 1.5 1.0 W W O 0
    Sep 02, 2023 box Saturday 1 2023 SYR CLG home 23-0 14-0 28-0 0-0 65-0 -40.0 49.5 65 25.0 15.5 20.2 -4.8 W W O 0
    Sep 17, 2022 box Saturday 3 2022 BCOL MAIN home 14-10 14-0 3-7 7-0 38-17 -31.0 48.0 21 -10.0 7.0 -1.5 8.5 W L O 0

    Comment

    • #3
      Originally posted by rolltide View Post
      some FBS/FCS this week so look out for teams favored by 29+ with a total <50. These games go OVER at a 83% clip. This year is 7-1-1 ou

      watching for aTm vs Abilene Christian, FSU vs UNA, Bama vs Chatty, and Sacred Heart vs UCONN


      total<50 and line<-28.5 and o:division!=FBS
      93-3-0 (36.23, 96.9%)
      55-40-1 (1.01, 57.9%) avg line: -35.2
      78-16-2 (10.24, 83.0%)
      these teams have also covered at a very high rate when 29-45 favorite and total 42.5-49.5

      https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
      67-1-0 (39.53, 98.5%)
      49-18-1 (4.66, 73.1%) avg line: -34.9 +6: 55-12-1 (82.1%) -6: 33-34-1 (49.3%) +10: 59-8-1 (88.1%) -10: 25-43-0 (36.8%)
      56-10-2 (9.73, 84.8%)

      Comment

      • #4
        Thanks !!!

        Comment

        • #5
          conference =MAC and 11<=week<=13 and HF and total <=40


          MAC
          week 11-13
          home favorite
          total <=40

          0-4 o/u (-18.25)

          smallest 16 !

          however they're the smallest favorite and 2nd smallest is significantly seperated from the 3rd..obviously to me a negative


          https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



          emu under 39



          .
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #6

            22-0 (3-0) = on LVILLE (game 7+ off loss with 6+ rest, covered unbeaten team by 9+ allowing <27)
            17-0 (0-0) = on TENN (oppose 10-0 teams vs 65%+ teams if 3.5+ dog or fav by 10.5-28)
            45-5 (2-0) = on Northwestern (late season oppose away conf fav who are rarely fav and off home win vs opp off win)
            53-13 (1-0) = on TEMP (oppose 7-loss home team just lost bowl eligible, playing Sat)
            42-21 (2-1) = on MIA OH (oppose 7-loss team that just lost bowl eligibility)
            45-5 (0-3) = on TEX TECH (opp conf dog off home dog win vs streaking team)
            34-6 (1-0) = on Northwestern (home dog off b2b dog win, one away)
            233-92 (16-10) = on RUT, KENTST, HAW (on away conf low total)
            54-22 (2-2) = on PST (opp team in 3rd straight ranked opp)
            83-38 (1-3) = on UK (SEC conf lost to this team at home LY)
            31-6 (2-0) = on UNLV (opp fav off loss as 3TD fav)
            51-12 (2-0) = on Sam Houston (away dog off win as 3.5+ dog vs opp off fav loss)
            30-9 (0-2) = on PIT, MIA, ND, CLEM (late season oppose ACC away off home high total)
            32-8 (3-2) = on UMASS (huge dog, high total after allowing <285 yards at home)
            29-5 (0-0) = on UGA (oppose home big dog won 10+LY vs unbeaten opp)
            32-14 (0-1) = on MICH ST (opp off OT loss, win before that, h2h win last year, game 9+)
            47-27 () = on MIA OH, OHIO ST (opp 2g losing streak with <6 wins if won 7+LY)


            2-17 ou (2-1 ou) = MIA/BUF u (wed/sun home after home not losing by 7+)
            354-570 ou (11-14 ou) = PUR/NW u, SMU/MEM u, VT/NCST u
            25-68 ou (4-7 ou) = ULLAF/TROY u (under off OT loss sys)
            496-717 ou (20-26 ou) = PUR/NW u, VT/NCST u, AUB/NMST u, SYR/GT u, SJ/SD u
            58-128 ou (7-5 ou) = JVST u (under -5 ats losing streak)
            5-25 ou (2-1 ou) = PIT/BC u (under midweek week 8-12 2+ home fav with less wins)
            17-67 ou (2-3 ou) = WMICH/NIL u, AKR/EMU u, OH/CMU u, MIA/BUF u (MAC under sys)

            Comment

            • #7
              Good Stuff !!

              Comment

              • #8
                Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                conference =MAC and 11<=week<=13 and HF and total <=40


                MAC
                week 11-13
                home favorite
                total <=40

                0-4 o/u (-18.25)

                smallest 16 !

                however they're the smallest favorite and 2nd smallest is significantly seperated from the 3rd..obviously to me a negative


                https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



                emu under 39



                .
                tied at 17 in regulation if you weren't aware..only reason I bring it up is there's another game that becomes a play tonight because the total dropped below 40 (40's ok)
                .. the line is right around the avg of the sample

                not a bad play even if does creep up over 40 and of course you're getting a better number


                buf under 39.5 (39 some places)


                _______________________________________________
                ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                Comment

                • #9
                  MAC home teams either DD fav or small dog off a double digit win allowing <75 or >175 passing yards have covered 20 straight. Active on Ohio tonight.

                  (line<-10 or 3<line<10) and conference=MAC and H and p:margin>9 and (po:passing yards>175 or po:passing yards<75) and season >2016

                  17-3-0 (28.00, 85.0%)
                  20-0-0 (13.32, 100.0%) avg line: -14.7 +6: 20-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 16-4-0 (80.0%) +10: 20-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 12-7-1 (63.2%)
                  12-8-0 (3.98, 60.0%) avg total: 54.6 +6: 6-14-0 (30.0%) -6: 15-5-0 (75.0%) +10: 4-16-0 (20.0%) -10: 16-4-0 (80.0%)
                  44.1 254.8 26.7 220.6 15.7 1.2 9.7 12.4 11.1 8.3 43.3
                  34.1 123.0 31.1 173.4 16.2 1.8 2.4 4.1 1.6 5.2 15.3
                  Nov 15, 2023 box Wednesday 12 2023 OHU CMCH home -11.0 46.5

                  Comment

                  • #10

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Wed or Fri home team off away fav win by 4 or more vs opponent that didn't win last game by at least 3. only game that didn't cover was -20.5 that won 44-24 after leading 41-10 in 4th quarter
                      https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

                      also on Ohio tonight
                      11-0-0 (19.45, 100.0%)
                      10-1-0 (5.64, 90.9%) avg line: -13.8 +6: 11-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 4-7-0 (36.4%) +10: 11-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 3-8-0 (27.3%)
                      6-2-0 (8.88, 75.0%) avg total: 61.0 +6: 5-2-1 (71.4%) -6: 6-2-0 (75.0%) +10: 5-3-0 (62.5%) -10: 6-2-0 (75.0%)
                      39.4 232.4 28.4 268.2 19.6 0.5 12.6 12.4 9.8 9.0 42.2
                      36.1 157.2 35.5 268.0 20.8 1.8 3.4 7.2 6.5 9.0 22.7
                      Nov 15, 2023 box Wednesday 12 2023 OHU CMCH home -11

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Ohio State has failed to cover in last 11 games as a favorite before Michigan if not facing a team ranked in top 7 (Min +28)

                        team = OHST and no:team = MICH and season>2008 and (o:rank = None or o:rank>7) and F
                        9-2-0 (9.45, 81.8%)
                        0-10-1 (-11.05, 0.0%) avg line: -20.5

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          10-0 away favs of 2.5-28 are 0-11 ATS away in week 11 if playing a team that isn't on a big losing streak (on MARY, TENN) ... they lost SIX of these outright all of them as favs of at least 8!

                          game number=11 and losses = 0 and A and -2>line>-28.5 and season>2009 and o:streak>-4
                          5-6-0 (-2.00, 45.5%)
                          0-11-0 (-18.09, 0.0%) avg line: -16.1

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            day = Thursday and HF and 10 <= week <= 13 and wins < o:wins and total <= 66 and season >= 2008 and po:score after the first < 14 and not season = 2020

                            thursday
                            week 10-13
                            home favorite
                            wins < opp wins
                            po: score after 1st qtr < 14
                            total <=66
                            eliminate covid year
                            2008


                            0-9 o/u (-12.22)


                            https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                            pit under 46.5
                            _______________________________________________
                            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                            Comment

                            • #15

                              Comment

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