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saturday ** air force/navy

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  • #1

    saturday ** air force/navy

    t:air force
    o:navy
    total <= 50
    2006

    first off this total is much lower than rest of sample which i dont like..less concerned about overall but rather a couple of good subsets
    ..you'll have to sort to see easily
    (hit "line" and "total" to put them in numerical order)



    fav >= 6 (big gap back to next lowest favorite)

    0-4 o/u(-16.1)


    total <= 40 (big gap to next lowest total )

    0-2 o/u (-14.3) balanced margins



    https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



    air force under 33.5 (SP)



    (SP) small play because total so low
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    how about one for the Army game...

    ARMY regular season when a 4.5+ dog with normal or heavy rest are 1-20 ou going under by 2TD per game
    4-17-0 (-8.43, 19.0%)
    11-8-2 (4.52, 57.9%) avg line: 13.0 +6: 17-4-0 (81.0%) -6: 10-11-0 (47.6%) +10: 17-4-0 (81.0%) -10: 7-14-0 (33.3%)
    1-20-0 (-12.33, 4.8%) avg total: 48.7 +6: 0-21-0 (0.0%) -6: 7-14-0 (33.3%) +10: 0-21-0 (0.0%) -10: 10-11-0 (47.6%)
    52.4 214.1 10.3 81.3 4.7 1.7 3.5 5.1 1.5 3.6 14.0
    39.0 184.7 20.8 162.7 12.2 1.1 5.4 6.0 5.9 4.2 22.4
    Oct 21, 2023 box Saturday 8 2023 ARMY LSU away 32.0 60.0
    Last edited by rolltide; 10-20-2023, 09:02 PM.

    Comment

    • #3
      amazing what an under machine army is as a minimum 4.5 dog..been doing real well in recent years also
      _______________________________________________
      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

      Comment

      • #4

        Comment

        • #5
          only problem for me is it seems to be a lot more effective after week 9..awful ats also with the >=4.5 dog though that has not been doing well in recent years
          _______________________________________________
          ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

          Comment

          • #6

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by bleeker View Post
              amazing what an under machine army is as a minimum 4.5 dog..been doing real well in recent years also
              Any idea why this site cuts the query off when you cut and paste? Very strange

              Comment

              • #8

                teams that have covered 6 or more straight games have failed to win or cover if not a fav of more than 3 points and playing a team that averages less than 2 turnovers per game (active against Penn St and Miami OH)

                ats streak > 5 and line > -3.5 and date > 20171111 and otA(turnovers) < 2 and p:rest > 5

                SU: 0-15-0 (-14.27, 0.0%) Teaser Records
                ATS: 0-14-1 (-8.23, 0.0%) avg line: 6.0

                Oct 21, 2023 box Saturday 8 2023 MIAO TOL home
                Oct 21, 2023 box Saturday 8 2023 PNST OHST away
                Last edited by rolltide; 10-21-2023, 09:49 AM.

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by rolltide View Post

                  Any idea why this site cuts the query off when you cut and paste? Very strange
                  not sure i understand what you mean by "cut and paste" ..i haven't had any problems using the ks query page..unless you're talking about copying a query (like something you write in a forum post) and pasting it in the query box on ks page..i have no trouble doing that

                  my last thought was if you copy something ,then cut something else before you paste what you copied then i believe that won't work ..guessing that would be true anywhere and not just the ks page





                  _______________________________________________
                  ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    that's a pretty cool system..amazing how at exactly 2 TO/gm avg for the opponent it totally collapses ..strange !
                    _______________________________________________
                    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      week 6-12
                      top 5 team
                      home
                      fav < 7 or dog
                      o:rank 6-25
                      total <=50

                      4-0 (16.88)

                      smallest 9

                      https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                      ohio st -4.5



                      _______________________________________________
                      ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                        week 6-12
                        top 5 team
                        home
                        fav < 7 or dog
                        o:rank 6-25
                        total <=50

                        4-0 (16.88)

                        smallest 9

                        https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


                        ohio st -4.5


                        3 of the opponents were 6-10 ranked teams and amongst those were the 3 biggest margins..two biggest (of those 3) were weeks 7-8 (today wk 8)
                        Last edited by bleeker; 10-21-2023, 07:47 AM.
                        _______________________________________________
                        ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Good Info !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by bleeker View Post
                            that's a pretty cool system..amazing how at exactly 2 TO/gm avg for the opponent it totally collapses ..strange !
                            3 of the covers by the 2+ turnover teams were the same team in same season (Lamar 2018) so that skews it. 6 of those 8 results are 1AA teams only two were D1A and, of those, they split 1-1 ATS. So you can omit the turnover piece all together, switch to D1 only, and is 1-13-1 ATS

                            so basically it says if bookies don't trust a 6+ straight cover team enough to be a 3.5+ favorite, they rarely cover

                            ats streak > 5 and line > -3.5 and date > 20171111 and division = FBS and p:rest > 5
                            1-14-0 (-12.53, 6.7%)
                            1-13-1 (-6.50, 7.1%) avg line: 6.0 +6: 6-8-1 (42.9%) -6: 1-14-0 (6.7%) +10: 10-5-0 (66.7%) -10: 1-14-0 (6.7%)
                            6-9-0 (-2.60, 40.0%) avg total: 51.5 +6: 3-11-1 (21.4%) -6: 7-8-0 (46.7%) +10: 3-12-0 (20.0%) -10: 7-8-0 (46.7%)
                            31.9 120.6 32.9 236.9 19.3 1.4 3.4 7.8 3.0 4.0 18.2
                            42.7 220.7 27.5 210.1 17.3 0.9 7.7 7.9 7.0 8.1 30.7
                            Oct 21, 2023 box Saturday 8 2023 MIAO TOL home 2.0 46.0
                            Oct 21, 2023 box Saturday 8 2023 PNST OHST away 4.5 45.5

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Originally posted by rolltide View Post

                              3 of the covers by the 2+ turnover teams were the same team in same season (Lamar 2018) so that skews it. 6 of those 8 results are 1AA teams only two were D1A and, of those, they split 1-1 ATS. So you can omit the turnover piece all together, switch to D1 only, and is 1-13-1 ATS

                              so basically it says if bookies don't trust a 6+ straight cover team enough to be a 3.5+ favorite, they rarely cover

                              ats streak > 5 and line > -3.5 and date > 20171111 and division = FBS and p:rest > 5


                              good premise

                              _______________________________________________
                              ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

                              Comment

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