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AFA under, TOL under

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  • #1

    AFA under, TOL under

    https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

    18-1-0 (18.63, 94.7%)
    10-9-0 (-0.84, 52.6%) avg line: -19.5 +6: 13-6-0 (68.4%) -6: 5-13-1 (27.8%) +10: 14-4-1 (77.8%) -10: 4-15-0 (21.1%)
    0-17-2 (-12.18, 0.0%) avg total: 55.6 +6: 0-19-0 (0.0%) -6: 8-10-1 (44.4%) +10: 0-19-0 (0.0%) -10: 10-9-0 (52.6%)
    38.8 181.0 27.8 213.4 17.9 1.4 6.1 10.9 6.8 7.2 31.0
    30.9 88.3 33.1 189.9 18.4 2.2 3.3 3.8 1.4 3.9 12.4
    Sep 16, 2023 box Saturday 3 2023 TOL SJST home -7.5 57.5
    Sep 15, 2023 box Friday 3 2023 AIR UTST home -9.5 45.5
    Tags: None
  • #2
    above is...

    home favs >1 point that allowed 8 or less last week playing a home team off a win scoring 57+ and running for less than 554 yards. Total in game is 45+

    Comment

    • #3
      big home favs off away fav win and an away trip vs highly ranked team on deck are unbeaten SU and ATS winning by an avg of 44ppg. Avg score is 52-8

      16-0-0 (44.31, 100.0%)
      15-0-1 (11.62, 100.0%) avg line: -32.7 +6: 16-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 11-5-0 (68.8%) +10: 16-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 9-6-1 (60.0%)
      7-6-0 (2.31, 53.8%) avg total: 58.0 +6: 5-8-0 (38.5%) -6: 10-2-1 (83.3%) +10: 4-9-0 (30.8%) -10: 11-2-0 (84.6%)
      38.7 254.8 28.3 286.7 19.8 0.8 15.0 15.1 13.5 7.8 52.2
      35.6 93.5 25.8 127.4 13.4 2.2 1.0 2.8 2.5 2.6 7.9
      Sep 16, 2023 box Saturday 3 2023 IOWA WMCH home -29.0 43.5

      Comment

      • #4
        After beating bama away as dogs or small favs home favs of 7+ are 1-10 ATS the following week
        p:W and po:team=ALA and p:line>-3 and p:A and H and line<-7
        10-1-0 (14.55, 90.9%)
        1-10-0 (-6.27, 9.1%) avg line: -20.8 +6: 6-5-0 (54.5%) -6: 1-10-0 (9.1%) +10: 8-3-0 (72.7%) -10: 1-10-0 (9.1%)
        39.0 231.8 28.0 254.5 16.2 1.2 5.2 14.2 10.2 10.5 30.1
        43.8 151.5 33.2 177.5 18.5 1.2 4.2 0.8 6.5 6.0 15.5
        Sep 16, 2023 box Saturday 3 2023 TEX WYO home -30.0 48.5

        Comment

        • #5

          Comment

          • #6
            some really nice subsets of the main system are ..


            line range -5/-37 especially up to -14

            both


            total <= 50 (of that line range)

            AFA


            https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++




            .

            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

            Comment

            • #7
              2-win dog of 4.5+ been going under in week 3 when facing a 1-win fav in non-conf game (9-34 ou)

              wins = 2 and o:wins = 1 and line>4 and not C and week = 3 and season>2005

              9-34-0 (-5.23, 20.9%) avg total: 54.1 +6: 8-35-0 (18.6%) -6: 19-23-1 (45.2%) +10: 6-37-0 (14.0%) -10: 27-16-0 (62.8%)
              34.2 132.2 32.5 193.0 17.8 1.7 3.9 4.6 3.3 5.8 17.8
              39.4 192.5 32.5 230.2 19.9 1.4 7.7 9.0 7.6 6.7 31.0
              Sep 16, 2023 box Saturday 3 2023 LMON TXAM away 36.5 53.5
              Sep 16, 2023 box Saturday 3 2023 GSOU WIS away 20.5 65.0

              Comment

              • #8
                Sept game 3-4 Saturday teams off a close home loss have bounced back very well, covering nearly 80% of time (BUF, CAL, NoILL)


                p:HL and rest > 5 and day = Saturday and p:margin>-5 and 3 <= game number <= 4 and season > 2015 and op:margin > -34 and month = 9

                39-17-0 (9.32, 69.6%)
                44-12-0 (7.62, 78.6%) avg line: -1.7 +6: 45-10-1 (81.8%) -6: 34-22-0 (60.7%) +10: 48-8-0 (85.7%) -10: 24-30-2 (44.4%)
                25-31-0 (0.80, 44.6%) avg total: 55.5 +6: 18-38-0 (32.1%) -6: 33-23-0 (58.9%) +10: 16-39-1 (29.1%) -10: 41-15-0 (73.2%)
                39.7 186.0 29.4 236.4 17.7 1.3 7.9 10.1 6.4 8.3 32.8
                38.2 167.1 33.0 224.4 18.4 1.8 5.4 7.4 5.5 5.1 23.5
                Sep 16, 2023 box Saturday 3 2023 NIL NEB away 12.5 42.5
                Sep 16, 2023 box Saturday 3 2023 CAL IDA home
                Sep 16, 2023 box Saturday 3 2023 BUF LIB home 3.0 53.0

                Comment

                • #9
                  playing on game 3 teams that allowed a ton of points in both game 1 and 2 of the season. These teams figure things out on defense in game 3 allowing <27 on average
                  on North Texas

                  10-6-0 (-0.75, 62.5%)
                  16-0-0 (15.25, 100.0%) avg line: 16.0 +6: 16-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 14-2-0 (87.5%) +10: 16-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 9-7-0 (56.2%)
                  6-10-0 (-3.94, 37.5%) avg total: 56.8 +6: 5-11-0 (31.2%) -6: 8-8-0 (50.0%) +10: 4-11-1 (26.7%) -10: 10-5-1 (66.7%)
                  37.1 159.4 29.9 218.9 18.1 0.9 5.5 8.4 4.2 7.5 26.1
                  35.9 147.4 32.1 269.8 19.1 1.4 7.0 8.8 5.1 5.7 26.8
                  Sep 16, 2023 box Saturday 3 2023 NTX LTCH away 4.5 67.5

                  Comment

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