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  • #1

    SEC dog non-conf

    After the FLA loss on Thursday since 2010 season SEC teams are just 15-40 SU when dog or tiny fav in a non-conference early season game. South Carolina fits today
    conference=SEC and game number<5 and not C and line>-2 and season>2009
    15-40-0 (-8.02, 27.3%)
    23-31-1 (-1.37, 42.6%) avg line: 6.6 +6: 35-18-2 (66.0%) -6: 15-39-1 (27.8%) +10: 43-12-0 (78.2%) -10: 10-43-2 (18.9%)
    32-23-0 (-2.91, 58.2%) avg total: 54.8 +6: 16-39-0 (29.1%) -6: 34-21-0 (61.8%) +10: 12-42-1 (22.2%) -10: 38-16-1 (70.4%)
    35.5 140.3 32.6 210.6 18.6 1.6 4.8 6.3 5.1 5.2 21.9
    37.7 163.4 34.4 257.9 21.8 1.3 5.5 8.5 7.6 7.7 30.0
    Sep 02, 2023 box Saturday 1 2023 SCAR NCAR neutral 2.5 63.5
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  • #2
    small week 1 favs on neutral field are 10-1 SU last 9 years when opponent not on a short week. Only loss was Clemson last year losing to champs Georgia. another play on UNC

    season > 2014 and game number = 1 and F and line > -5.5 and site = neutral and o:game number = 1 and on:rest > 5
    10-1-0 (7.82, 90.9%)
    9-2-0 (4.77, 81.8%) avg line: -3.0 +6: 10-1-0 (90.9%) -6: 3-8-0 (27.3%) +10: 10-0-1 (100.0%) -10: 3-8-0 (27.3%)
    2-8-1 (-12.73, 20.0%) avg total: 55.5 +6: 0-11-0 (0.0%) -6: 4-7-0 (36.4%) +10: 0-11-0 (0.0%) -10: 5-6-0 (45.5%)
    40.1 167.2 29.0 216.3 17.2 1.2 6.1 5.2 4.2 9.8 25.3
    34.1 139.9 33.9 203.2 20.7 1.7 3.7 6.1 4.6 3.0 17.5
    Sep 02, 2023 box Saturday 1 2023 NCAR SCAR neutral -2.5 63.5

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    • #3
      I like it. Thanks for posting and good luck this season, rt!!

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      • #4

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        • #5
          impressive SU win rate with week 1 11+ favs...

          95% of the time away favs of 11+ win including 24-0 if a conference game (CLEM, OSU)

          AF and game number = 1 and season>1997 and line<=-11
          100-5-0 (21.34, 95.2%)
          58-44-3 (2.90, 56.9%) avg line: -18.4 +6: 74-30-1 (71.2%) -6: 44-59-2 (42.7%) +10: 85-17-3 (83.3%) -10: 32-71-2 (31.1%)
          34-40-0 (-0.61, 45.9%) avg total: 55.1 +6: 22-52-0 (29.7%) -6: 43-29-2 (59.7%) +10: 18-56-0 (24.3%) -10: 56-18-0 (75.7%)
          40.9 220.3 28.6 248.1 18.5 1.1 8.6 10.6 9.5 8.6 36.9
          33.5 111.0 36.4 222.6 20.6 2.0 3.6 5.6 3.4 4.6 15.5
          Sep 04, 2023 box Monday 1 2023 CLEM DUKE away -13.0 55.5
          Sep 03, 2023 Sunday 1 2023 ORST SJST away -16.0 55.0
          Sep 02, 2023 box Saturday 1 2023 TXT WYO away -13.5 50.5
          Sep 02, 2023 box Saturday 1 2023 OHST IND away -31.0 59.0

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          • #6

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            • #7
              active tonight

              in past 20+ years ACC dogs are 4-41 SU vs SEC teams if they don't have a conference game on deck

              conference = ACC and game number < 13 and not C and D and season > 2002 and o:conference = SEC and not n:C
              4-41-0 (-18.22, 8.9%)
              10-35-0 (-6.97, 22.2%) avg line: 11.3 +6: 23-22-0 (51.1%) -6: 4-41-0 (8.9%) +10: 30-14-1 (68.2%) -10: 2-43-0 (4.4%)
              20-18-3 (0.87, 52.6%) avg total: 53.7 +6: 10-30-1 (25.0%) -6: 28-13-0 (68.3%) +10: 9-32-0 (22.0%) -10: 32-9-0 (78.0%)
              38.9 159.5 29.4 168.5 15.1 1.8 3.9 4.7 3.9 5.3 17.2
              38.4 201.5 27.6 228.6 17.0 1.1 9.3 10.2 8.3 7.8 35.5
              Sep 03, 2023 box Sunday 1 2023 FLST LSU neutral 1.5 56.5

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              • #8

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