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  • #1

    SDQL postseason

    applies to current lines

    season systems:
    PLAY ON well rested dog 3.5+ with better win percentage and did not fail to cover last game by 3+ (37-6 = on EMU if 3.5+)
    PLAY ON academy dog not at home vs non-elite offensive fav (41-12, 5-1 = on Air Force)
    PLAY ON fav or dog<3.5 away/neutral off b2b great defense vs opp allowed 60+ in L2 games, total<50 (200-106, 11-7 = on FRES, TOL, SDST if total<50, and PSU if <=3)
    OPPOSE off OT loss as fav or small dog preceded by a win and beat this team h2h last meeting (12-32, 0-1 = on FSU)
    UNDER off OT loss as a fav or tiny dog (20-61 ou, 7-8 ou = TCU/MICH under, OU/FSU under)
    UNDER off 303+ rushing yards game and not a huge fav (474-689 ou, 18-47 ou = UAB/MIA under, BYU/SMU under)
    UNDER scored 174+ points in L4 games but total is <50 (8-45 ou, 1-2 ou = NMST/BGSU under)
    OVER and PLAY ON dog when total is <35 (4-16-2 ATS, 19-3 ou = on UK and over)

    bowl specific systems:
    PLAY ON academy bowl game not against SEC/P12 (26-7 = on AFA) AFA are 9-3 ATS
    PLAY ON postseason off conf title win as a fav or tiny dog and now not a 10+ dog (43-6 = Troy, UTSA, TOLEDO, CLEM, KST) note: Troy/UTSA play each other
    PLAY ON non-FRI <week18 bowl fav or 4+ dog on 6+ streak with 47+ total (12-0 = on FRES)
    PLAY ON good running bowl team vs pass-happy opponent (68-16 = on FRES, SoBAMA, UL-LAF, SDST, BUFF, WIS, MISS, TEX, ILL, LSU) 7-0 covers by 18ppg if opp went to OT last game (SoBAMA, BUFF, MISS)
    PLAY ON Dec postseason elite rush defense not dog of 9+ (103-38 = on Boise, SJST, AFA, ECU, MD, UCLA, IOWA, UGA) dogs are 30-23 SU with avg line of +4.5 (AFA)
    PLAY ON 6-6 team not on 5+ win streak or big dog, opp <10 wins (42-7 = on UAB, on UL-LAF)
    PLAY ON heavy rushing bowl teams with 25+ rest facing heavy passing P12 teams (18-1 = on TEX, PITT, TULANE, PSU) 16 straight covers
    PLAY ON bowl team with <4 wins L8 vs team >3 wins L8, total<59 (40-7 = on RICE, SYR)
    PLAY ON bowl team won<4 LY vs opp won>4 and opp not off huge ats loss (44-7 = on UCONN, Duke, Kansas, Ohio U)
    OPPOSE MAC not 11.5+ dog, opp off 3+ loss or 43+ win (2-22 = on LIB, NMST, WYO) 0-10 if played in MAC title game (LIB, WYO)
    OPPOSE bowl team with <4 wins L8, bad YTD margin, allow>22ppg, and total 59+, opp not 3+ game losing streak (0-13 = on BUF, ARK)
    OPPOSE bowl fav off b2b losses not fav of 4-6.5 (6-29, 0-0 = on Texas Tech if not +4-6.5)
    OPPOSE bowl 4+ ATS win streak vs opponent not on 4+ ATS win streak (4-17 = on Florida)
    OPPOSE non-MWC off a 35+ points scored loss vs opp off a cover (3-34 = on Oregon St) last two covers by total of 1.5 points
    OPPOSE postseason WP<75% fav or small dog allowing >25ppg vs opponent off loss (17-68 = on LIB, UTST, COAST, WIS, KAN, ARK, ND, WYO) ark/kan play each other
    UNDER postseason >10% WP fav or dog<7.5 vs non-elite defense (75-144 ou = CIN/LOU u, ORST/FLA u, FRES/WAST u, MARSH/CON u, SoBAMA/WKY u, AFA/BAY u, FSU/OU u, WAS/TEX u, OH/WYO u)
    UNDER bowl game with 3+ over streak avg >27ppg, opponent 7+ wins and not on 3+ under streak (1-29 ou = LSU/PUR under) under by 2TD/game
    UNDER fav or small postseason dog avg >40ppg but total is <63.5 (7-40 ou = ALA/KST u, MICH/TCU u, USC/TUL u, PSU/UTAH u) 1-11 ou L12
    UNDER two good offenses, total<66.5, late bowl games so a lot of rest (5-52 ou = UCLA/PITT u, TEN/CLEM u, ALA/KST u, UGA/OSU u, MICH/TCU u, UTAH/PSU u) 1-16 ou L17
    UNDER OT last game, rest<32, didn't just score 65+ and line isn't DD (1-24 ou = WKY/SoBAMA u, GASO/BUF u, TXT/MISS u, KST/ALA u)
    UNDER good bowl defenses, 17+ rest, didn't get blown out last game (1-27 ou = FRES/WAST u, USC/TULANE u, LSU/PUR u)
    UNDER postseason avg >37.5 fav vs opp avg>40 that didn't win 12+ LY (0-14 ou = MICH/TCU u)
    Last edited by rolltide; 12-13-2022, 01:55 PM.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    great stuff rolltide !
    _______________________________________________
    ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)

    Comment

    • #3
      pretty wild splits

      CUSA favs of 5+ are 6-0 SUATS vs MAC winning game by avg of 32 points
      6-0-0 (31.83, 100.0%)
      6-0-0 (20.75, 100.0%) avg line: -11.1 +6: 6-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 5-1-0 (83.3%) +10: 6-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 5-1-0 (83.3%)
      1-5-0 (-3.83, 16.7%) avg total: 61.3 +6: 1-5-0 (16.7%) -6: 4-2-0 (66.7%) +10: 0-6-0 (0.0%) -10: 6-0-0 (100.0%)
      39.5 179.3 35.2 263.3 22.2 0.8 9.3 11.5 8.8 11.5 44.7
      37.7 144.2 32.0 203.5 18.7 1.0 3.3 6.3 4.0 2.7 12.8
      game type = BG and conference = USA and line<-4.5 and o:conference = MAC
      Dec 16, 2022 box Friday 16 2022 UAB MIAO neutral -11.0 44.5
      Dec 19, 2017 Tuesday 17 2017 FATL AKRON home 7-0 14-3 15-0 14-0 50-3 -23.5 62.0 47 23.5 -9.0 7.2 -16.2 W W U 0
      Dec 23, 2014 Tuesday 18 2014 MRSH NIL neutral 14-7 10-6 14-7 14-3 52-23 -9.5 67.5 29 19.5 7.5 13.5 -6.0 W W O 0
      Dec 23, 2013 Monday 17 2013 ECAR OHU neutral 14-0 3-14 0-3 20-3 37-20 -14.0 62.5 17 3.0 -5.5 -1.2 -4.2 W W U 0
      Dec 21, 2012 Friday 17 2012 CFL BALL neutral 0-13 7-15 3-7 7-3 38-17 -7.5 59.0 21 13.5 -4.0 4.8 -8.8 W W U 0
      Jan 06, 2008 Sunday 19 2007 TLS BOWL neutral 21-0 14-0 14-7 14-0 63-7 -6.0 75.5 56 50.0 -5.5 22.2 -27.8 W W U 0
      Jan 07, 2007 Sunday 19 2006 SMIS OHU neutral 0-0 21-0 7-0 0-7 28-7 -6.0 41.5 21 15.0 -6.5 4.2 -10.8 W W U 0

      Comment

      • #4
        Geez, those are eye-popping! Thanks for posting. Like that the UAB play marries up to one of your trends above.

        PLAY ON 6-6 team not on 5+ win streak or big dog, opp <10 wins (42-7 = on UAB, on UL-LAF)

        Comment

        • #5
          Originally posted by bleeker View Post
          great stuff rolltide !
          any idea how to find this out for each team without going through every bowl team to see how dogs fared in their games this season?

          (team=FLA or o:team=FLA) and D and season=2022
          5-7-0 (-5.33, 41.7%)
          10-2-0 (6.67, 83.3%)

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by rolltide View Post

            any idea how to find this out for each team without going through every bowl team to see how dogs fared in their games this season?

            (team=FLA or o:team=FLA) and D and season=2022
            5-7-0 (-5.33, 41.7%)
            10-2-0 (6.67, 83.3%)
            you got me on that one rt but if I do will post it


            _______________________________________________
            ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
            • 1 like

            Comment

            • #7
              money angle...

              took a tiny on Jackson St under 55.5

              although a lightly bet game 98% of tickets are on the over, 91% of money is on the under

              Comment

              • #8
                A prop bet i like

                Mtn West over 3.5 bowl wins

                Boise monster fav vs little No Tex that lost coach
                Air Force catching 5.5 but academies make great bowl dogs
                Wyoming getting 1 against MAC team in bad systems spots
                Utah St getting 7.5, the most likely loser
                Fresno St now a 5pt fav vs Pac10 who are notoriously bad in bowls
                San Jose St 4pt fav vs a MAC team
                San Diego St solid 7pt fav vs bad Mid Tenn team

                so you get 4 teams that are at least 4-pt favs, one basically a pk'em, and two 1-score dogs. None of these teams are playing a good bowl conference other than AFA who will give Baylor tons of problems in the Armed Forces Bowl. Looks like a very good bet with the first two playing today (Fresno and Boise)

                negative is that other than Air Force who were 4-0 in non conf games most of these qualifying teams struggled but will always take my shot with MWC over MAC, No Tx, and Mid Tenn

                Comment

                • #9
                  Thanks !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    active 12/19-12/26

                    season systems:
                    PLAY ON well rested dog 3.5+ with better win percentage and did not fail to cover last game by 3+ (37-6 = on EMU if 3.5+)
                    PLAY ON academy dog not at home vs non-elite offensive fav (41-12, 5-1 = on Air Force)
                    PLAY ON fav or dog<3.5 away/neutral off b2b great defense vs opp allowed 60+ in L2 games, total<50 (201-106, 12-7 = TOL, SDST if total<50)
                    UNDER scored 174+ points in L4 games but total is <50 (8-45 ou, 1-2 ou = NMST/BGSU under)
                    UNDER MAC Mon-Thu not 6+ fav and allowing >21ppg (12-62 ou = EMU/SJST u, TOL/LIB u, BGSU/NMST u)


                    bowl specific systems:
                    PLAY ON academy bowl game not against SEC/P12 (26-7 = on AFA) AFA are 9-3 ATS in this
                    PLAY ON postseason off conf title win as a fav or tiny dog and now not a 10+ dog (44-7 = TOLEDO)
                    PLAY ON good running bowl team vs pass-happy opponent (69-16 = on SoBAMA, UL-LAF, SDST) 7-0 covers by 18ppg if opp went to OT last game (SoBAMA)
                    PLAY ON Dec postseason elite rush defense not dog of 9+ (103-39 = on SJST, AFA) dogs are 30-23 SU with avg line of +4.5 (AFA)
                    PLAY ON 6-6 team not on 5+ win streak or big dog, opp <10 wins (42-8 = on UL-LAF)
                    PLAY ON bowl team won<4 LY vs opp won>4 and opp not off huge ats loss (44-7 = on UCONN)
                    OPPOSE MAC not 11.5+ dog, opp off 3+ loss or 43+ win (2-22 = on LIB, NMST) 0-10 if played in MAC title game (LIB)
                    OPPOSE postseason WP<75% fav or small dog allowing >25ppg vs opponent off loss (17-68 = on LIB)
                    UNDER postseason >10% WP fav or dog<7.5 vs non-elite defense (75-147 ou = MARSH/CON u, SoBAMA/WKY u, AFA/BAY u)
                    UNDER OT last game, rest<32, didn't just score 65+ and line isn't DD (1-24 ou = WKY/SoBAMA u)
                    Last edited by rolltide; 12-20-2022, 10:46 AM.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      the favorite in HOU games this year is 2-10 ATS allowing 35 ppg

                      2-10-0 (-8.67, 16.7%) avg line: -8.5 +6: 6-6-0 (50.0%) -6: 2-10-0 (16.7%) +10: 7-5-0 (58.3%) -10: 2-10-0 (16.7%)
                      9-2-1 (11.42, 81.8%) avg total: 59.2 +6: 8-4-0 (66.7%) -6: 11-1-0 (91.7%) +10: 3-7-2 (30.0%) -10: 11-1-0 (91.7%)
                      35.3 160.1 36.9 288.8 24.8 1.3 8.4 9.5 6.2 8.8 35.2
                      29.7 126.8 39.8 317.9 25.4 1.2 4.9 10.8 8.4 9.0 35.4
                      Dec 23, 2022 box Friday 17 2022 HOU LLAF neutral -7.0 56.5

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        12/27-12/31

                        season systems:
                        OPPOSE off OT loss as fav or small dog preceded by a win and beat this team h2h last meeting (12-32, 0-1 = on FSU)
                        UNDER off OT loss as a fav or tiny dog (20-61 ou, 7-8 ou = TCU/MICH under, OU/FSU under)
                        OVER and PLAY ON dog when total is <35 (4-16-2 ATS, 19-3 ou = on UK and over)

                        bowl specific systems:
                        PLAY ON postseason off conf title win as a fav or tiny dog and now not a 10+ dog (44-8 = CLEM, KST)
                        PLAY ON good running bowl team vs pass-happy opponent (69-18 = on BUFF, WIS, MISS, TEX, ILL, LSU)
                        PLAY ON Dec postseason elite rush defense not dog of 9+ (104-40 = on ECU, MD, UCLA, IOWA, UGA)
                        PLAY ON heavy rushing bowl teams with 25+ rest facing heavy passing P12 teams (18-1 = on TEX, PITT) 16 straight covers
                        PLAY ON bowl team with <4 wins L8 vs team >3 wins L8, total<59 (40-8 = on SYR)
                        PLAY ON bowl team won<4 LY vs opp won>4 and opp not off huge ats loss (44-8 = on Duke, Kansas, Ohio U)
                        OPPOSE MAC not 11.5+ dog, opp off 3+ loss or 43+ win (2-23 = on NMST, WYO) 0-11 if played in MAC title game (WYO)
                        OPPOSE bowl team with <4 wins L8, bad YTD margin, allow>22ppg, and total 59+, opp not 3+ game losing streak (0-13 = on BUF, ARK)
                        OPPOSE bowl fav off b2b losses not fav of 4-6.5 (6-29, 0-0 = on Texas Tech if not +4-6.5)
                        OPPOSE postseason WP<75% fav or small dog allowing >25ppg vs opponent off loss (17-69 = on UTST, COAST, WIS, KAN, ARK, ND, WYO) ark/kan play each other
                        OPPOSE MAC dogs or small favs not on 4+ win streak with total<54 (2-16 = on WYO)
                        UNDER postseason >10% WP fav or dog<7.5 vs non-elite defense (77-148 ou = FSU/OU u, WAS/TEX u, OH/WYO u)
                        UNDER fav or small postseason dog avg >40ppg but total is <63.5 (7-40 ou = ALA/KST u, MICH/TCU u) 1-11 ou L12
                        UNDER two good offenses, total<66.5, late bowl games so a lot of rest (5-52 ou = UCLA/PITT u, TEN/CLEM u, ALA/KST u, UGA/OSU u, MICH/TCU u) 1-16 ou L17
                        UNDER OT last game, rest<32, didn't just score 65+ and line isn't DD (2-24 ou = GASO/BUF u, TXT/MISS u, KST/ALA u)
                        UNDER postseason avg >37.5 fav vs opp avg>40 that didn't win 12+ LY (0-14 ou = MICH/TCU u)
                        OVER ACC allowing <31.5ppg vs non power 5, total 39+ (13-1 ou = DUKE/UCF over)
                        UNDER B12 dog week 18+ (2-23 ou = OSU/WISC u, KAN/ARK u, TTU/MISS u, OU/FSU u, TEX/WAS u, KST/ALA u)
                        Last edited by rolltide; 12-27-2022, 11:52 AM.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          another active on Wyoming this Friday and then on Iowa Saturday is teams averaging -30 yards per game or worse that aren't a 17+ dog in December bowl games

                          KS is a pain in the ass right now so can't play around with things like PRSW, streaks, wins vs opp wins, etc but the core numbers are pretty sweet with 2 games left in the bowl season. Buff qualified today
                          49-22-0 (5.44, 69.0%)
                          54-15-2 (6.61, 78.3%) avg line: 1.2 +6: 61-10-0 (85.9%) -6: 38-30-3 (55.9%) +10: 63-8-0 (88.7%) -10: 26-44-1 (37.1%)
                          37-34-0 (-0.70, 52.1%) avg total: 56.1 +6: 22-49-0 (31.0%) -6: 45-26-0 (63.4%) +10: 12-58-1 (17.1%) -10: 55-16-0 (77.5%)
                          39.4 157.0 31.2 235.2 18.5 1.5 6.9 8.0 6.4 8.5 30.4
                          36.1 157.2 32.7 247.5 19.1 1.7 5.5 6.8 6.4 6.5 25.0
                          Dec 31, 2022 box Saturday 18 2022 IOWA KTKY neutral -2.0 31.0
                          Dec 30, 2022 box Friday 18 2022 WYO OHU neutral 1.5 42.5
                          dogs are 30-4-1 with 21 SU wins....
                          21-14-0 (0.74, 60.0%)
                          30-4-1 (7.83, 88.2%) avg line: 7.1 +6: 32-3-0 (91.4%) -6: 20-13-2 (60.6%) +10: 32-3-0 (91.4%) -10: 10-24-1 (29.4%)
                          20-15-0 (0.96, 57.1%) avg total: 56.5 +6: 12-23-0 (34.3%) -6: 23-12-0 (65.7%) +10: 8-27-0 (22.9%) -10: 27-8-0 (77.1%)
                          37.5 128.9 33.7 260.3 19.7 1.5 5.6 9.2 5.0 8.0 29.1
                          36.2 166.5 34.1 267.2 20.5 1.5 5.6 8.2 7.4 7.7 28.4
                          Dec 30, 2022 box Friday 18 2022 WYO OHU neutral 1.5 42.5
                          Last edited by rolltide; 12-27-2022, 08:45 PM.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            bowl fav not 6 wins exact slightly negative yards per game differential and total 43+. one only this year is NC State but would have to remain fav

                            avg ats win by nearly 16 ppg
                            22-1-0 (20.22, 95.7%)
                            21-1-1 (15.70, 95.5%) avg line: -4.5 +6: 22-1-0 (95.7%) -6: 16-6-1 (72.7%) +10: 22-1-0 (95.7%) -10: 16-7-0 (69.6%)
                            11-11-1 (2.24, 50.0%) avg total: 55.0 +6: 9-13-1 (40.9%) -6: 17-6-0 (73.9%) +10: 7-15-1 (31.8%) -10: 20-2-1 (90.9%)
                            42.7 189.8 28.2 206.7 17.0 1.5 9.5 10.7 8.6 8.5 38.7
                            32.5 119.4 36.7 247.4 21.0 2.3 5.2 5.0 4.7 5.1 18.5
                            Dec 30, 2022 box Friday 18 2022 NCST MARY neutral -1.0 46.0

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              bowl dog or fav up to -3 off a home win as dog or tiny fav scoring 29+ vs opponent off dog loss
                              p:HW and p:line > -3 and game type = BG and op:DL and line > -3.5 and season > 2001 and p:points > 28
                              8-5-0 (6.31, 61.5%)
                              13-0-0 (9.08, 100.0%) avg line: 2.8 +6: 13-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 5-8-0 (38.5%) +10: 13-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 4-9-0 (30.8%)
                              3-6-0 (-3.22, 33.3%) avg total: 57.0 +6: 3-6-0 (33.3%) -6: 4-5-0 (44.4%) +10: 2-7-0 (22.2%) -10: 6-3-0 (66.7%)
                              46.1 196.6 34.6 217.0 19.8 2.6 6.1 8.1 8.9 6.6 31.1
                              34.8 123.2 36.0 236.3 18.0 2.2 5.8 6.0 3.0 8.7 24.8
                              Dec 28, 2022 box Wednesday 18 2022 DUKE CFL neutral -3.0 63.0

                              Comment

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