SDQL week 14

[rolltide]

UNDER CCG total 64+ fav allows >23ppg (1-13 ou = USC/UTA u, UTSA/NT u)
OPPOSE CCG 8.5-20.5 fav with 2+ more wins and defense allows <18.5 (0-16 = play on PUR, LSU) but.....
PLAY ON CCG 18+ fav with 6+ rest (8-0 = would only apply if Mich or UGA hit 18 or higher fav)
PLAY ON CCG or week 14 unranked vs ranked, neutral field, not 10+ fav (11-1 = on PUR)
OPPOSE CCG neutral ranked 4+ spots lower and met earlier this year did not win by 10+ (0-9 = on USC, TCU)
PLAY ON CCG dog off a loss but not as 11.5+ fav and opp was not a 18.5+ fav (19-2 = on UNC, Coastal)
PLAY ON ml CCG were favored by >3 earlier this year and didn't lose by 14+ (31-3 su = UTSA ml, TUL ml)
PLAY ON CCG or week 14 2-8 loss team off 35+ loss and aren't huge dog (26-2 = on Coastal)

[rolltide]

OPPOSE CCG 5-10 game win streak not 5-9 point fav (2-22 = on TOL, BOISE)
PLAY ON CCG 1-loss team off win, opponent not on 10+ win streak, and line not fav 5.5-10.5 (15-1 = on USC)

[rolltide]

one for this afternoon. I can't bet on Akron to cover but trend is in their favor

teams that broke a 9+ game losing streak are 11-1 ATS in next game

7-5-0 (-5.08, 58.3%)
11-1-0 (5.58, 91.7%)	avg line: 10.7	+6: 11-1-0 (91.7%)	-6: 7-5-0 (58.3%)	+10: 11-1-0 (91.7%)	-10: 4-8-0 (33.3%)
3-8-1 (-4.79, 27.3%)	avg total: 54.4	+6: 1-11-0 (8.3%)	-6: 7-5-0 (58.3%)	+10: 1-11-0 (8.3%)	-10: 8-4-0 (66.7%)

38.0	146.0	29.0	170.1	16.0	1.5	6.2	5.8	3.8	6.3	22.2
39.3	173.9	27.5	215.1	15.6	2.5	4.0	8.7	4.5	10.2	27.3

Dec 02, 2022	box	Friday	14	2022	AKRON	BUF	away						11.0	55.0
Nov 23, 2019		Saturday	13	2019	RICE	NTX	home	10-0	10-0	0-7	0-7	20-14	4.5	55.5	6	10.5	-21.5	-5.5	-16.0	W	W	U	0
Nov 23, 2019		Saturday	13	2019	NMST	UTEP	home	7-0	7-13	7-3	23-19	44-35	-7.5	56.0	9	1.5	23.0	12.2	10.8	W	W	O	0
Nov 16, 2019		Saturday	12	2019	EIL	SEMS	home	7-0	0-6	3-7	2-13	12-26	14.5	49.5	-14	0.5	-11.5	-5.5	-6.0	L	W	U	0
Nov 25, 2017		Saturday	13	2017	GSOU	LLAF	away	14-0	3-7	10-3	7-14	34-24	4.5	57.5	10	14.5	0.5	7.5	-7.0	W	W	O	0
Nov 26, 2016		Saturday	13	2016	KAN	KAST	away	3-6	0-14	6-7	10-7	19-34	24.5	53.5	-15	9.5	-0.5	4.5	-5.0	L	W	U	0
Nov 30, 2013		Saturday	14	2013	CON	RUT	home	14-7	0-3	0-7	14-0	28-17	2.5	48.0	11	13.5	-3.0	5.2	-8.2	W	W	U	0
Nov 17, 2012		Saturday	12	2012	MAS	BUF	home	3-0	10-0	6-14	0-15	19-29	10.5	49.5	-10	0.5	-1.5	-0.5	-1.0	L	W	U	0
Dec 03, 2011		Saturday	14	2011	FATL	LMON	home	0-6	0-13	0-0	0-7	0-26	8.0	47.5	-26	-18.0	-21.5	-19.8	-1.8	L	L	U	0
Nov 27, 2010		Saturday	13	2010	MIN	IOWA	home	10-0	10-17	0-0	7-7	27-24	15.0	51.0	3	18.0	0.0	9.0	-9.0	W	W	P	0
Nov 28, 2009		Saturday	13	2009	NMX	TCU	away	0-9	10-21	0-0	0-21	10-51	44.0	57.5	-41	3.0	3.5	3.2	0.2	L	W	O	0
Nov 21, 2009		Saturday	12	2009	RICE	UTEP	home	0-13	10-7	7-3	13-6	30-29	6.0	68.5	1	7.0	-9.5	-1.2	-8.2	W	W	U	0
Nov 24, 2007		Saturday	13	2007	UTST	IDA	away	7-7	10-3	7-3	0-6	24-19	1.5	58.5	5	6.5	-15.5	-4.5	-11.0	W	W	U	0

[Chamblin]

[rolltide]

not fav of 24+ with both better offensive PPG and defensive PPG and didn't meet opponent already this season when facing an average opponent defense

18-15-0 (1.00, 54.5%) 4-27-2 (-9.15, 12.9%) avg line: -10.2 +6: 15-18-0 (45.5%) -6: 2-31-0 (6.1%) +10: 18-13-2 (58.1%) -10: 2-31-0 (6.1%) 10-11-1 (-3.27, 47.6%) avg total: 55.6 +6: 5-17-0 (22.7%) -6: 12-9-1 (57.1%) +10: 3-19-0 (13.6%) -10: 15-6-1 (71.4%) 37.5 157.7 34.4 258.8 21.9 1.7 6.0 8.4 5.2 7.0 27.0 36.0 125.1 29.5 220.8 15.3 1.4 5.9 5.7 6.5 7.0 26.0 Dec 03, 2022 box Saturday 14 2022 MICH PUR neutral -16.5 52.0 Dec 03, 2022 box Saturday 14 2022 GEO LSU neutral -17.5 52.0

[Chamblin]