College Bowl Games Discussion Thread

[TheGame]

SCHEDULE
New Mexico Albuquerque, NM $456,250	12/21/13 2:00pm ESPN	MWC #4 vs. PAC-12 #7	Colorado State (7-6) Washington State (6-6) Computer Pick: Colorado State by 2.81
Las Vegas Bowl Las Vegas, NV $1,100,000	12/21/13 3:30pm ABC	MWC #1 vs. PAC-12 #5	Fresno State (11-1) USC (9-4) Computer Pick: USC by 0.29
Famous Idaho Potato Boise, ID $325,000	12/21/13 5:30pm ESPN	MWC #6 vs. MAC #3	San Diego State (7-5) Buffalo (8-4) Computer Pick: Buffalo by 2.54
New Orleans New Orleans, LA $500,000	12/21/13 9:00pm ESPN	Sun Belt #1 vs. CUSA #7	Louisiana-Lafayette (8-3) Tulane (7-5) Computer Pick: Louisiana-Lfayette by 3.62
Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg, FL $537,500	12/23/13 2:00pm ESPN	American #6 vs. CUSA #5	Ohio (7-5) East Carolina (9-3) Computer Pick: East Carolina by 10.33
Hawai'i Honolulu, HI $650,000	12/24/13 8:00pm ESPN	*-Hawaii or MWC #5 vs. CUSA #2	Boise State (8-4) Oregon State (6-6) Computer Pick: Boise State by 1.59
Little Caesars Pizza Detroit, MI $750,000	12/26/13 6:00pm ESPN	MAC #2 vs. Big 10 #8	Bowling Green (10-3) Pittsburgh (6-6) Computer Pick: Bowling Green by 13.04
Poinsettia San Diego, CA $500,000	12/26/13 9:30pm ESPN	MWC #2 vs. *-Army	Utah State (8-5) Northern Illinois (12-1) Computer Pick: Utah State by 4.04
Military Bowl Annapolis, MD $1,000,000	12/27/13 2:30pm ESPN	ACC #8 vs. CUSA #6 or MAC	Maryland (7-5) Marshall (9-4) Computer Pick: Marshall by 12.52
Texas-(1) Houston, TX $1,700,000	12/27/13 6:00pm ESPN	Big 10 #6 vs. Big 12 #6	Minnesota (8-4) Syracuse (6-6) Computer Pick: Minnesota by 5.76
Fight Hunger Bowl-(3) San Francisco, CA $837,500	12/27/13 9:30pm ESPN	PAC-12 #6 vs. *-BYU or ACC #9	Washington (8-4) BYU (8-4) Computer Pick: Washington by 2.64
Pinstripe Bronx, NY $1,800,000	12/28/13 12:00pm ESPN	American #4 vs. Big 12 #7	Rutgers (6-6) Notre Dame (8-4) Computer Pick: Notre Dame by 17.77
Belk Charlotte, NC $1,700,000	12/28/13 3:20pm ESPN	American #3 vs. ACC #5	Cincinnati (9-3) North Carolina (6-6) Computer Pick: North Carolina by 0.60
Russell Athletic Orlando, FL $2,275,000	12/28/13 6:45pm ESPN	American #2 vs. ACC #3	Louisville (11-1) Miami, Fla. (9-3) Computer Pick: Louisville by 5.28
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Tempe, AZ $3,325,000	12/28/13 10:15pm ESPN	Big 12 #4 vs. Big 10 #5	Kansas State (7-5) Michigan (7-5) Computer Pick: Kansas State by 0.36
Armed Forces Ft. Worth, TX $600,000	12/30/13 11:45am ESPN	MWC #3 vs. *-Navy or CUSA #3	Middle Tennessee (8-4) Navy (7-4) Computer Pick: Navy by 3.45
Music City Nashville, TN $1,862,500	12/30/13 3:15pm ESPN	ACC #6 vs. SEC #7	Georgia Tech (7-5) Mississippi (7-5) Computer Pick: Georgia Tech by 4.57
Alamo San Antonio, TX $3,175,000	12/30/13 6:45pm ESPN	Big 12 #3 vs. PAC-12 #2	Texas (8-4) Oregon (10-2) Computer Pick: Oregon by 6.95
Holiday San Diego, CA $2,075,000	12/30/13 10:15pm ESPN	Big 12 #5 vs. PAC-12 #3	Texas Tech (7-5) Arizona State (10-3) Computer Pick: Arizona State by 10.82
AdvoCare V100 Bowl-(2) Shreveport, LA $1,150,000	12/31/13 12:30pm ESPN	SEC #10 vs. ACC #7	Arizona (7-5) Boston College (7-5) Computer Pick: Arizona by 12.24
Sun El Paso, TX $2,000,000	12/31/13 2:00pm CBS	ACC #4 vs. PAC-12 #4	Virginia Tech (8-4) UCLA (9-3) Computer Pick: UCLA by 6.35
Liberty Memphis, TN $1,437,500	12/31/13 4:00pm ESPN	SEC #8 or #9 vs. CUSA #1	Mississippi State (6-6) Rice (10-3) Computer Pick: Mississippi State by 3.21
Chick-fil-A Atlanta, GA $3,967,500 ACC; $2,932,500 SEC	12/31/13 8:00pm ESPN	ACC #2 vs. SEC #5	Duke (10-3) Texas A&M (8-4) Computer Pick: Texas A&M by 8.47
Heart Of Dallas Dallas, TX $1,100,000	1/1/14 12:00pm ESPN-U	CUSA #4 vs. Big 10 #7	North Texas (8-4) UNLV (7-5) Computer Pick: North Texas by 8.13
Gator Jacksonville, FL $2,725,000	1/1/14 12:00pm ESPN-2	Big 10 #4 vs. SEC #6	Nebraska (8-4) Georgia (8-4) Computer Pick: Georgia by 10.58
Outback Tampa, FL $3,500,000	1/1/14 1:00pm ABC	^-SEC #3, or #4 vs. Big 10 #3	LSU (9-3) Iowa (8-4) Computer Pick: LSU by 10.45
Capital One Orlando, FL $4,250,000	1/1/14 1:00pm ESPN	Big 10 #2 vs. SEC #2	Wisconsin (9-3) South Carolina (10-2) Computer Pick: South Carolina by 0.45
Rose Pasadena, CA $18,000,000	1/1/14 5:00pm ESPN	BCS (Big 10 tie-in) vs. BCS (PAC-12 tie-in)	Michigan State (12-1) Stanford (11-2) Computer Pick: Stanford by 7.75
Fiesta Glendale, AZ $18,000,000	1/1/14 8:30pm ESPN	BCS vs. BCS (Big 12 tie-in)	UCF (11-1) Baylor (11-1) Computer Pick: Baylor by 15.08
Sugar New Orleans, LA $18,000,000	1/2/14 8:30pm ESPN	BCS vs. BCS (SEC tie-in)	Oklahoma (10-2) Alabama (11-1) Computer Pick: Alabama by 2.95
Cotton Arlington, TX $3,625,000	1/3/14 8:00pm Fox	^-SEC #3 or #4 vs. Big 12 #2	Missouri (11-2) Oklahoma State (10-2) Computer Pick: Oklahoma State by 7.25
Orange Miami, FL $18,000,000	1/3/14 8:00pm ESPN	BCS vs. BCS (ACC tie-in)	Ohio State (12-1) Clemson (10-2) Computer Pick: Ohio State by 4.77
BBVA Compass Bowl Birmingham, AL $1,000,025 SEC; $900,000 AAC	1/4/14 1:00pm ESPN	American #5 vs. SEC #8 or #9	Houston (8-4) Vanderbilt (8-4) Computer Pick: Houston by 0.94
GoDaddy.com Mobile, AL $750,000	1/5/14 9:00pm ESPN	Sun Belt #2 vs. MAC #1	Arkansas State (7-5) Ball State (10-2) Computer Pick: Ball State by 8.31
BCS Championship Pasadena, CA $22,000,000	1/6/14 8:20pm ESPN	BCS #1 vs. BCS #2	Florida State (13-0) Auburn (12-1) Computer Pick: Florida State by 16.67

[TheGame]

This thread is to discuss all the bowl games.
Feel free to share your thoughts on any of the upcoming games.

[TheGame]

Odds for all 35 college football bowl games

The bowl matchups are set and oddsmakers have been feverishly working to set the spreads for those NCAAF postseason games. Here's a look at the bowl games and the available odds for those contests:

Gildan New Mexico
Washington State vs. Colorado State (+13) - Albuquerque, N.M.

Royal Purple Las Vegas
Fresno State vs. USC (-8) - Las Vegas

Famous Idaho Potato
Buffalo vs. San Diego State (+4.5) - Boise, Idaho

R+L Carriers New Orleans
Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (+3) - New Orleans

Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg
East Carolina vs. Ohio (+13.5) - St. Petersburg, Fla.

Sheraton Hawaii
Boise State vs. Oregon State (-4) - Honolulu

Little Caesars Pizza
Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green (-5) - Detroit

S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia
Utah State vs. Northern Illinois (-1) - San Diego

Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman
Marshall vs. Maryland (Pick) - Annapolis, Md.

Texas
Syracuse vs. Minnesota (-3.5) - Houston

Fight Hunger
BYU vs. Washington (-6.5) - San Francisco

New Era Pinstripe
Rutgers vs. Notre Dame (-18.5) - Bronx, N.Y.

Belk
Cincinnati vs. North Carolina (-3) - Charlotte, N.C.

Russell Athletic
Miami vs. Louisville (-3) - Orlando, Fla.

Buffalo Wild Wings
Michigan vs. Kansas State (+2.5) - Tempe, Ariz.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
Middle Tennessee vs. Navy (N/A) - Fort Worth, Texas

Franklin American Mortgage Music City
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Tech (+3.5) - Nashville, Tenn.

Valero Alamo
Oregon vs. Texas (+12.5) - San Antonio

National University Holiday
Arizona State vs. Texas Tech (+15.5) - San Diego

AdvoCare V100
Arizona vs. Boston College (+8) - Shreveport, La.

Hyundai Sun
Virginia Tech vs. UCLA (-10.5) - El Paso, Texas

AutoZone Liberty
Rice vs. Mississippi State (-9.5) - Memphis, Tenn.

Chick-fil-A
Duke vs. Texas A&M (-12.5) - Atlanta

TaxSlayer.com Gator
Nebraska vs. Georgia (-7) - Jacksonville, Fla.

Heart of Dallas
UNLV vs. North Texas (N/A) - Dallas

Capital One
Wisconsin vs. South Carolina (+2) - Orlando, Fla.

Outback
Iowa vs. LSU (-8) - Tampa, Fla.

Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO
Stanford vs. Michigan State (+3.5) - Pasadena, Calif.

Tostitos Fiesta
UCF vs. Baylor (-17) - Glendale, Ariz.

Allstate Sugar
Oklahoma vs. Alabama (-17) - New Orleans

Discover Orange
Clemson vs. Ohio State (-4) - Miami

AT&T Cotton
Oklahoma State vs. Missouri (-3.5) - Arlington, Texas

BBVA Compass
Vanderbilt vs. Houston (N/A) - Birmingham, Ala.

GoDaddy
Arkansas State vs. Ball State (N/A) - Mobile, Ala.

VIZIO BCS National Championship
No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 2 Auburn (+7.5) - Pasadena, Calif.

[rock712]

im certainly looking at some of the early underdogs here. Fresno State and San Diego State are worth an early look in my opinion. 3rd coach of the year in a bowl game for USC and Fresno gets a big name opponent and likely will be much more motivated. A little later Texas +12.5 will be a game i look at. Oregon has not played well to end the year and motivation may be an issue for them. Boston College has a tremendous running game so catching over a touchdown against an average Arizona defense looks good on the surface. Two totals im pretty sure i will hammer will be the overs in the BYU/ Washington and the over in the Duke / Texas AM game. Im looking to get them at their opening numbers as those totals will rise big time. As for some of the bigger bowl games definately like Clemson + points versus a letdown unmotivated Ohio State team. I havent really begun breaking all these games down yet, these are just first glance thoughts

[TheGame]

Good points Rock.
I like your take on USC and was thinking the same thing regarding them being on coach #3
It seems like the kids really got up to play for their new coach...
Only to watch him not get the job.

Duke / Texas A&M over looks like a solid play. I'm sure Johnny TD will be using this game as his final showcase for NFL teams.
Don't see him playing in any of the all star games. A reckless playing style could lead to a bunch of scores or short fields for Duke.
Actually when thinking about it. I could see the Clemson game playing out in a similar fashion.

Good points Rock.
Let's get some more people chiming in with their thoughts.

[rock712]

Pitt plus the points and the under in that game would be two more games i am looking at. Two of the past 3 seasons Pitt has played in bowl games during coaching changes. Now they are on the other side of the coin with Bowling Green coach leaving for Wake. IF some of the BG staff goes with him to Wake ill be on Pitt. If BG stays in house and hires Elko or the interim guy ill probably stay away from the game

[captjoe388]

FLA ST -8 Auburn Should have lost to Georgia, most likely Would have lost to Bama in OT, and Could have lost to Mizou if the Mizz coaches didn't keep 3 down linemen against a team that threw the ball a measly 11 times while rushing 74 times. Cant see Auburn scoring enough to be competitive against the dynamic offense of FSU. Noles will shut down the run and Auburn will be forced to pass, something they don't excel in. This line will and should be double digits by game time. I lean to the over since FSU will likely put up at least 40, and some garbage time scores will push it over. If you like FSU, I think you bet them now as I did.

[rock712]

you have 12 games with huge strength of schedule differences this year

1) Washington State (1) vs Colorado State (105)
2) USC (14) vs Fresno (111)
3) Miss State (8) vs Rice (103)
4) Pitt (33) vs Bowling Green (123)
5) Oregon State (12) vs Bosie (93)
6) Notre Dame (17) vs Rutgers (90)
7) UNC (52) vs Cincy (120)
8) Maryland (72) vs Marshall (126)
9) AZ State (2) vs Texas Tech (54)
10) San Diego State (77) vs Buffalo (128)
11) Stanford (4) vs MIchigan State (56)
12) Georgia (9) vs Nebraksa (59)


Of these i am elminating USC and Notre Dame. USC because of coaching changes and motivation and Notre Dame because i dont see them as being motivated for this game. I am going to eliminate Miss State and Maryland for pretty much the same reason, big schools against little schools and am worried about motivation

Games i really like from this system are

1) Washington State - 104 difference in the strength of schedule. I give coaching edge in this game with Mike Leach and lets face it no matter what the score is Leach is going to throw the ball and try to score lessening the chance at a backdoor cover. Now that i have had time to look at these games i really like Wash State in this spot. Washington State has not been a traditional bowl team every year and the motivation should be there

2) Pitt - 90 spots strength of schedule difference and an underdog. They and San Diego State are the only underdogs in the system. Pitt is getting 6 points, Bowling Green is undergoing a coaching change so i would give Pitt the coaching edge here. Pitt is trying to turn the corner and motivation should not be an issue here

3) Oregon State - favored by 3. Mike Riley is a good coach and should have Oregon State ready to play. Like Oregon STate here

4) UNC vs CIncy - probably going to pass on this one. Should be a high scoring game, maybe look at the over

5) AZ State vs Texas Tech - probably going to pass here as well. Holiday Bowl usually very high scoring but the total is set at 70 and will only get higher. Az State is clearly better but i just dont like laying 2 touchdowns in bowl games

6) San Diego State - the 2nd underdog in this system. SDSU will be an automatic play for me. Major coaching advantage in my opinion. The only bad quality about SDSU is terrible special teams units. However BUffalo is not what i would consider a lock down defense so im not worried about drives stalling in the end zone

7) Stanford - this one surprised me as i was orginally leaning toward Michigan State here. Probably going to end up passing. Two great coaches here so there is really no coaching advantage. One thing that could change my mind on this one would be if Shaw flirts with the Texas head coach opening then i may look at Michigan State again

8) Georgia - im going to pass on this game. georgia is banged up right now and i really only see 2 outcomes for this game and i really could see it going either way. The first will be a Georgia route since Nebraksa and Pelini are so disfunctional right now. Or you could just see Nebraska win straight up. I dont see Georgia winning a close game

[TheGame]

Handicapping bowl season's biggest betting totals

Sky-high bowl totals are becoming the norm with the pass-heavy, all-offense evolution of college football.

Last season saw six bowl games with totals of 70 points or more, including a record-high 82-point total in the Holiday Bowl between Baylor and UCLA.

This bowl season, there are just two bowl games with Over/Unders at 70 points or more – the Holiday Bowl between Arizona State and Texas Tech (70), and the Chick-fil-A Bowl featuring Texas A&M and Duke (72).

Since 1985, there have been 26 bowl totals of 70 points or more. Those games have gone a combined 15-11 O/U, including a 2-4 O/U record during last year’s bowl season. And bowl totals of 74 points and above are 8-4 O/U over the past 27 years.

Here are the 12 highest bowl totals since 1985:

82 – Baylor 49, UCLA 26 (Dec. 27, 2012)
80 – Baylor 67, Washington 56 (Dec. 29, 2011)
79 – Arizona 49, Nevada 48 (Dec. 15, 2012)
78.5 – Louisville 44, Boise State 40 (Dec. 31, 2004)
77.5 – Tulsa 63, Bowling Green 7 (Jan. 6, 2008)
77 – Hawaii 59, UAB 40 (Dec. 24, 2004)
75.5 – Hawaii 54, Houston (Dec. 25, 2003)
75 – Oregon 42, Oklahoma State 31 (Dec. 30, 2008)
74.5 – Tulsa 62, Hawaii 35 (Dec. 24, 2010)
74 – UCLA 50, Northwestern 38 (Dec. 30, 2005)
74 – Oregon 45, Wisconsin 38 (Jan. 2, 2012)
74 – Oregon 35, Kansas State 17 (Jan. 3, 2013)

[Winningpix]

I think it's a good idea to look to go against Ohio State, Missouri, Alabama and Oregon in these situations. Also, I have a few points I need some help with.

A)Bet against teams who don't want to be there i.e. Ohio State, Missouri, Alabama..a little concerned that good coaches like Saban and Meyer can use their last game losses as motivation, B) Bet over in PRE New Year's Day games if the total is 60+, C) Bet against teams whose coach has left or is leaving for another job. I.E. against Oregon and Texas playing for retiring coach Mack Brown.

Any feedback or input regarding these points is appreciated. What coaches have left for other jobs ??

[TheGame]

A Change At The Top

Arkansas State	Bryan Harsin	Blake Anderson
Army	Rich Ellerson
Boise State	Chris Petersen	Bryan Harsin
Bowling Green	Dave Clawson	Dino Babers
Connecticut	Paul Pasqualoni	Bob Diaco
Eastern Michigan	Ron English	Chris Creighton
Florida Atlantic	Carl Pelini	Charlie Partridge
Miami (Ohio)	Don Treadwell	Chuck Martin
Texas	Mack Brown
USC	Lane Kiffin	Steve Sarkisian
Wake Forest	Jim Grobe	Dave Clawson
Washington	Steve Sarkisian	Chris Petersen
Wyoming	Dave Christensen	Craig Bohl

[rock712]

I think it's a good idea to look to go against Ohio State, Missouri, Alabama and Oregon in these situations. Also, I have a few points I need some help with.

A)Bet against teams who don't want to be there i.e. Ohio State, Missouri, Alabama..a little concerned that good coaches like Saban and Meyer can use their last game losses as motivation, B) Bet over in PRE New Year's Day games if the total is 60+, C) Bet against teams whose coach has left or is leaving for another job. I.E. against Oregon and Texas playing for retiring coach Mack Brown.

Any feedback or input regarding these points is appreciated. What coaches have left for other jobs ??

Clemson is going to be a big bowl bet for me. I hope some money and I think it will come in on Ohio State so we can get up to 4 or 4.5. Oklahoma I will also bet on but probably not for as much. Oklahoma has mobile QB's that have given Alabama problems so far this year but I worry about Oklahoma getting down early. Im not so sure on Missouri. I think they will be really up for this game playing an old conference foe. I really like the total in that game though. I will probably be on Texas as well. Will even take a little piece of the moneyline on that game. I think Texas either really puts it together for Mack Brown or gets steamrolled. Probably depends what Oregon team shows up. Im banking on the unmotivated Oregon and banged up Marriota showing up

[captjoe388]

Re: College Bowl Games Discussion Thread

FLA ST -8 Auburn Should have lost to Georgia, most likely Would have lost to Bama in OT, and Could have lost to Mizou if the Mizz coaches didn't keep 3 down linemen against a team that threw the ball a measly 11 times while rushing 74 times. Cant see Auburn scoring enough to be competitive against the dynamic offense of FSU. Noles will shut down the run and Auburn will be forced to pass, something they don't excel in. This line will and should be double digits by game time. I lean to the over since FSU will likely put up at least 40, and some garbage time scores will push it over. If you like FSU, I think you bet them now as I did.

Nothing has made me change my mind. The line movement is what I expected. I already bought this at 8. Ifmy bowl record wasn't so shitty, I'd hammer it again.