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College Football Gambling Preview: Florida at Miami
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
Florida at Miami (FL)
Saturday, 9 am PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: Florida -3 O/U 50.5
CRIS Current: Florida -3 O/U 48
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Florida -6
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under
The Florida vs. Miami rivalry isn’t much of a rivalry these days. The two teams haven’t played since 2008, and have no scheduled meetings following Saturday’s clash at the Orange Bowl in Miami. When they played in ’08, Urban Meyer was at the height of his career with Florida, and the game was no contest: a 26-3 Gators win, with Miami held to just 140 yards of total offense. That being said, Miami was a 24-point underdog at the closing number, and Hurricane backers got the money when they lost by only 23.
Florida’s defense may be every bit as good this year. They completely stifled a pretty good Toledo offense last week, holding the Rockets to 12 first downs, 205 total yards and two field goals for the game. The Gators were playing without suspended defenders LB Antonio Morrison, DT Darious Cummings and CB Loucheiz Purifoy in that contest, all of whom are expected to suit up this week.
That could be bad news for a Miami offense that did not look sharp in their home opener against Florida Atlantic last weekend. The Hurricanes ran the ball effectively all evening, but senior QB Stephen Morris wasn’t clicking with his receivers, a modest 15-of-27 for 160 yards with one TD and one interception. Head coach Al Golden: “We have to throw and catch better. We weren't as sharp as we need to be and that's it. No excuses. We protected well, except for one time, but other than that we have to throw and catch the ball better. We have to be more precise in our routes.”
The Gators have plenty of offensive concerns of their own. When Florida last won the national title following the 2008 season, their offense averaged more than 43 points per game. In Will Muschamp’s first two years as Florida’s head coach, the Gators averaged under 27 points per game in both seasons. Last week against Toledo, the offense continually sputtered: four three-and-outs and two potential scoring drives stopped in the red zone.
Florida’s biggest offensive problem has been their lack of explosive playmakers – this team simply isn’t scoring many quick strike touchdowns these days. They didn’t have a single 30+ yard play against a MAC defense last week, executing long, plodding drives instead of short, explosive ones. RB Matt Jones is back from his one game suspension this week, but the real culprit here is the Jeff Driskel led passing game.
Driskel was the #1 rated QB recruit in the country when he arrived in Gainesville, but in a year and a half as the starter, he’s yet to live up to those enormous expectations. The numbers don’t lie. He started 12 games as a sophomore last year, but finished the season with only 12 TD passes and 1,600 passing yards, bottom tier numbers. It’s surely worth noting that Driskel struggled repeatedly on the highway last year, reaching 200 passing yards and throwing for more than one TD only once in their six games outside of the Swamp.
Yes, there is plenty of skill position talent on the field, but neither offense can be described as explosive these days, and both defenses have every bit as much size and speed as their counterparts on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Expect a relatively plodding, hard hitting low scoring affair that stays Under the total.
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
Florida at Miami (FL)
Saturday, 9 am PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: Florida -3 O/U 50.5
CRIS Current: Florida -3 O/U 48
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Florida -6
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under
The Florida vs. Miami rivalry isn’t much of a rivalry these days. The two teams haven’t played since 2008, and have no scheduled meetings following Saturday’s clash at the Orange Bowl in Miami. When they played in ’08, Urban Meyer was at the height of his career with Florida, and the game was no contest: a 26-3 Gators win, with Miami held to just 140 yards of total offense. That being said, Miami was a 24-point underdog at the closing number, and Hurricane backers got the money when they lost by only 23.
Florida’s defense may be every bit as good this year. They completely stifled a pretty good Toledo offense last week, holding the Rockets to 12 first downs, 205 total yards and two field goals for the game. The Gators were playing without suspended defenders LB Antonio Morrison, DT Darious Cummings and CB Loucheiz Purifoy in that contest, all of whom are expected to suit up this week.
That could be bad news for a Miami offense that did not look sharp in their home opener against Florida Atlantic last weekend. The Hurricanes ran the ball effectively all evening, but senior QB Stephen Morris wasn’t clicking with his receivers, a modest 15-of-27 for 160 yards with one TD and one interception. Head coach Al Golden: “We have to throw and catch better. We weren't as sharp as we need to be and that's it. No excuses. We protected well, except for one time, but other than that we have to throw and catch the ball better. We have to be more precise in our routes.”
The Gators have plenty of offensive concerns of their own. When Florida last won the national title following the 2008 season, their offense averaged more than 43 points per game. In Will Muschamp’s first two years as Florida’s head coach, the Gators averaged under 27 points per game in both seasons. Last week against Toledo, the offense continually sputtered: four three-and-outs and two potential scoring drives stopped in the red zone.
Florida’s biggest offensive problem has been their lack of explosive playmakers – this team simply isn’t scoring many quick strike touchdowns these days. They didn’t have a single 30+ yard play against a MAC defense last week, executing long, plodding drives instead of short, explosive ones. RB Matt Jones is back from his one game suspension this week, but the real culprit here is the Jeff Driskel led passing game.
Driskel was the #1 rated QB recruit in the country when he arrived in Gainesville, but in a year and a half as the starter, he’s yet to live up to those enormous expectations. The numbers don’t lie. He started 12 games as a sophomore last year, but finished the season with only 12 TD passes and 1,600 passing yards, bottom tier numbers. It’s surely worth noting that Driskel struggled repeatedly on the highway last year, reaching 200 passing yards and throwing for more than one TD only once in their six games outside of the Swamp.
Yes, there is plenty of skill position talent on the field, but neither offense can be described as explosive these days, and both defenses have every bit as much size and speed as their counterparts on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Expect a relatively plodding, hard hitting low scoring affair that stays Under the total.
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