SDQL 11/4-11/7

[rolltide]

some 2020 specific trend stuff in action tonight. Game 1 vs Game 1, Home teams with high totals that aren't big home dogs >3.5 or huge home favs are 1-14 o/u this year going under by 12 ppg

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

active tonight in CMU, Kent, Toledo, and Miami then Saturday P12 in USC, Utah, and Oregon St

1-14-2 (-11.56, 6.7%)

avg total: 57.2

[Chamblin]

Re: SDQL 11/4-11/7

[rolltide]

Re: SDQL 11/4-11/7

a few active fri

PLAY ON unbeaten home dog scored 39-77 last week and 39+ the prev week (15-0 ATS = on Boise St)
PLAY ON away fav off b2b great defense vs opponent that sored 59+ in L2 games combined (168-83 ATS = on Miami Fl, on BYU)
UNDER home total<49 two elite defenses (57-96 o/u = SDSU/SJSU u)
UNDER total<69 with total 7+ points less than L2 games (370-649 o/u = SDS/SJS u)

[Chamblin]

Re: SDQL 11/4-11/7

[rolltide]

Re: SDQL 11/4-11/7

NCAA


sides:
PLAY ON Game 1 away conference non Wed/Thu, last h2h scored >14 but either lost or won by 7 or less (15-47 ATS = on Oregon St, on USC)
OPPOSE week 1 favs that won 4 or less games last year (31-64 ATS = play on COLO)
OPPOSE rested game 3 team off 10+ ats win playing 2nd road team vs beaten opp (11-34 ATS = on State Pen)
PLAY ON unbeaten home fav off dog win vs opponent that won at least 3 games LY (53-22 ATS = on NW)
PLAY ON G3 home team off a fav loss vs opponent that did not lose by 12+ last week (87-59 ATS = on Iowa)
OPPOSE G8 terrible away team on 4+ game losing streak (40-76 ATS = on Ga State)
OPPOSE G8 <.500 teams that won 10+LY (27-49 ATS = on Tulsa)
PLAY ON small dog off DD conf win and opponent scored 26+ but allowed 31+ (97-41 ATS = on WVU)
OPPOS home off win over top 10 team and opponent not winning>87% (35-68 ATS = on WVU)
OPPOSE big away dog off home dog win scoring 30+ but allowing 20+ (29-65 ATS = on State Pen)
PLAY ON SEC team on 3 game h2h losing streak exact, game 4+ (46-11 ATS = on FLA) note: also fits 25-2 ATS tightener for scoring 38+ last game plus 21-1 ATS for conference game
PLAY ON away fav off b2b great defense vs opponent that sored 59+ in b2b games (169-84 ATS = on App St)


totals:
UNDER G1-2 dog avenging home loss from early season game (23-54 o/u = STAN/ORE u)
UNDER G3 home dog that won 5+ games LY vs opponent allowing >10 ppg this season (4-27 o/u = IND/MICH u)
OVER after Indiana week 3+ (25-7 o/u = RUT/OSU o)
OVER after Hawaii (30-13 o/u = WYO/COLST o)
UNDER after Kentucky (15-37 o/u = UGA/FLA u)
UNDER VT home after allowing 7+ away (11-28 o/u = VT/LIB u)
UNDER home on win streak vs opponent not on losing streak, both won 8+LY (62-114 o/u = CLEM/ND u, IND/MICH u)
UNDER non conf fav with low total (87-162 o/u = ARMY/AFA u)
UNDER total<69 with total 7+ points less than L2 games (370-650 o/u = CLEM/ND u, MSU/VAN u, TROY/GSo u, FSU/PITT u, WKY/FAU u, AFA/ARMY u)
UNDER big fav off blowout loss in week 6+ (8-28 o/u = MSU/VAN u, MEM/USF u, ULM/GaSt u)

[rolltide]

Re: SDQL 11/4-11/7

this one i created last week is now 22-4 o/u after both Miami and BYU went over last night. Today it's Texas A&M and SMU games

T25 away favs with 55+ total are 16-3 o/u this year (Min, UNC, OSU, VT, ND)
https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/qu...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

16-3-1 (9.28, 84.2%)

avg total: 63.3

[rolltide]

Re: SDQL 11/4-11/7

an FYI that Ranked favs are now 13-2 ATS and 14-1 SU against ranked opponent this year. this will drift back to the norm (recently around 57%) but interesting to see them keep winning and covering

[rolltide]

Re: SDQL 11/4-11/7

While top 11 teams are 6-0 SUATS as favs of >7 against ranked they are just 9-20 ATS against unranked. (aTm, Ohio St, and Cincy fall into that one today)

[rolltide]

Re: SDQL 11/4-11/7

in 2020 unranked dogs against either unranked or top 12 teams are 30-14-3 (rutgers, stanford, so carolina, houston) including 21-8-2 when getting >14 (rutgers). these #'s improve to 23-9 and 14-4 in conference games (all are still a fit)