Hi Folks,
Hope everyone is doing well, and having fun getting ready for the Holiday Season.
Saturday, December 16th
FWIW: $100 is the smallest wager I'll make during Bowl season, and the max will be $500 if I like something well enough. It's probably best to just flat bet all these games, but I'll be who I am and probably make staggered wagers.
North Texas is without RB Wilson, and Troy has the strong defensive edge here. Yet the number is sitting at 6.5 for a reason I believe, and North Texas playing the tougher schedule. Plus off the ass whooping from the Lane Train will be motivation for the Mean Green. Both teams are more pass driven to begin with UNT passing 52% of the time to Troy's 54%, and UNT's QB Fine gets the edge here vs a Troy defense that allowed 60.6% this year. The Mean Green allowed just a 53.3% completion rate.
This years Boise team isn't the explosive teams we've become accustom to over the years. They still have a strong defense (not great - just strong), and Oregon losing their HC is the reason I've chosen the Broncos here. Oregon has Herbert back and the Ducks were a different team with him, but that could very well be because of who they faced when he played (it was the weakest defenses on their schedule). The intangibles and Boise's edge on defense has me riding them here. I guess I can make a note Boise has always been great vs P5 schools going 6-2 ATS in Bowls, and are 2-0 ATS as a dog this year.
Marshall has faced the tougher schedule, and for me has the best defense by far in this matchup. Colorado State can score with the best of them. but I think Doc Holiday can come up with a good game plan to take advantage of that poor run defense (giving up 5 YPC) which keeps the Rams offense on the sidelines longer than they would like. The Herd runs about 50% of the time this year, but Holiday is good at exploiting edges.
Both Arkansas State and Middle Tenn State are pass driven teams with the Red Wolves holding the edge by a fare share on overall offense, and "PASSING" defense. The Blue Raiders are allowing 62.9% while the Red Wolves have done well holding teams to a 51.1% pass completion average. I don't put a great deal of Stockstill's numbers being so good since he made it back as starter. Reason being it was against some of the worse passing defenses around (UTEP, Charlotte, ODU & WKY).
Peace
Doc
Hope everyone is doing well, and having fun getting ready for the Holiday Season.
Saturday, December 16th
CFB [201] NORTH TEXAS +6½-105 | 105.00 USD / 100.00 USD |
CFB [206] BOISE STATE +7-110 | 110.00 USD / 100.00 USD |
CFB [207] MARSHALL +3½-115 | 115.00 USD / 100.00 USD |
CFB [210] ARKANSAS STATE -3-110 | 110.00 USD / 100.00 USD |
FWIW: $100 is the smallest wager I'll make during Bowl season, and the max will be $500 if I like something well enough. It's probably best to just flat bet all these games, but I'll be who I am and probably make staggered wagers.
North Texas is without RB Wilson, and Troy has the strong defensive edge here. Yet the number is sitting at 6.5 for a reason I believe, and North Texas playing the tougher schedule. Plus off the ass whooping from the Lane Train will be motivation for the Mean Green. Both teams are more pass driven to begin with UNT passing 52% of the time to Troy's 54%, and UNT's QB Fine gets the edge here vs a Troy defense that allowed 60.6% this year. The Mean Green allowed just a 53.3% completion rate.
This years Boise team isn't the explosive teams we've become accustom to over the years. They still have a strong defense (not great - just strong), and Oregon losing their HC is the reason I've chosen the Broncos here. Oregon has Herbert back and the Ducks were a different team with him, but that could very well be because of who they faced when he played (it was the weakest defenses on their schedule). The intangibles and Boise's edge on defense has me riding them here. I guess I can make a note Boise has always been great vs P5 schools going 6-2 ATS in Bowls, and are 2-0 ATS as a dog this year.
Marshall has faced the tougher schedule, and for me has the best defense by far in this matchup. Colorado State can score with the best of them. but I think Doc Holiday can come up with a good game plan to take advantage of that poor run defense (giving up 5 YPC) which keeps the Rams offense on the sidelines longer than they would like. The Herd runs about 50% of the time this year, but Holiday is good at exploiting edges.
Both Arkansas State and Middle Tenn State are pass driven teams with the Red Wolves holding the edge by a fare share on overall offense, and "PASSING" defense. The Blue Raiders are allowing 62.9% while the Red Wolves have done well holding teams to a 51.1% pass completion average. I don't put a great deal of Stockstill's numbers being so good since he made it back as starter. Reason being it was against some of the worse passing defenses around (UTEP, Charlotte, ODU & WKY).
Peace
Doc
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