Bowl Games 2017:

[Jel]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

[Docwatson]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

Thanks Jel, and you as well.

Last one for today:

Michigan State (Spartans): Point Spread -2 ½ -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00

Doc

[Docwatson]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

Friday, 12/28/17

Off a 2-2 day on Thursday, and sitting at 11-8 +$525 for this IMO very tough bowl season.

Today isn't much better so I'll just be doing $100 wagers again. Drama lines for today are:

Texas A&M is without a coach today, and rumors out of Charlotte is they're having a good time and "seemingly" not focused on the game.

AZST is was without a coach, but then got that coach back after the DC and OC bolted the program. How motivated is he to end on a winning note.

Nothing crazy really going in the NW-Kentucky Bowl in Nashville.

NMST hasn't played in a Bowl since 1960, and may not be back there since they're moving out of the Sun Belt and going Independent. So who knows the real state of that football program.

Finally OHST vs USC, the B1G Champ vs PAC 12 Champ. What's weird about that is it's being played three days before New Years, and the damn thing is Texas and not California.

Texas A&M (Aggies): Point Spread +4 -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00
Arizona State (Sun Devils): Point Spread +7 -115 Risking $115.00 to win $100.00
Northwestern (Wildcats): Point Spread -9 ½ -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00
Utah State (Aggies): Point Spread -4 ½ -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00
Ohio State (Buckeyes): Point Spread -8 -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00

Real quick as I have busy day here with the Family.

I'm going to ignore the rumors with Texas A&M. I think Wake is a little over valued here, and the Demon Deacon struggle with the run may bite them in this contest. I feel TXAM has the speed to stay a step ahead, and defend the well balanced Deacs sufficiently enough.

AZST did a terrific job away from home scoring 35 PPG, and this bowl game IMO tends to go the dogs. I like the Sun-Devils rushing attack vs the Wolfpack.

This Northwestern team is well balanced on offense and defense. Both teams need to run to be successful, and Northwestern seems to have a nice edge on defense vs the run compared to the Other Wildcat team here.

I like Utah State because I just like fading a pass happy team which NMST is when that team has a poor defense. NMST has the motivational edge, but UTST has better team. We'll see which one prevails.

OHST is a number thing for me. I think they can win by 11 or more, and their defense is much stronger than USC, and I believe that will be the difference. A lot of touts on the Trojans as well.

Doc

[illini23]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

doc

[TheMule]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

good luck today

[Docwatson]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

Saturday 12-30-17:

Good morning, I hope everyone is warm and ready for a fun Saturday. It is the last one of the year you know.

Mississippi State (Bulldogs): Point Spread +7 -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00
Iowa State (Cyclones): Point Spread +4 -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00
Washington (Huskies): Point Spread +3 -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00
Wisconsin (Badgers): Point Spread -6 -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00

Lets go ahead and get these out there for today. I'll try not to get too mouthy, and just give a synopsis:

The Bulldogs come in without their coach as he went to Florida, and the RB's coach will serve as interim. If you watched Mississippi State's game on Thanksgiving night you'd know that their QB Fitzgerald is going to be out after that nasty dislocated ankle injury. You also may have notice the back up QB Thompson did nicely trying to get his team back from an 18-point deficit. Getting 318 yards of total offense. The Cardinals of Louisville have a defense that can't be trusted to lay seven points IMO. Yes they have super freak Lamar Jackson at QB, but they're still laying a lot of points to a decent SEC defense. I threw out the coaching distraction, added in 15 extra practices with Thompson, and an SEC defense that has a couple 1st Team SEC guys on it. I'll grab the points.

Memphis and Iowa State were able to hang on to their highly touted young HC's this season. Even though this game is at Memphis I like Iowa State's Big 12 experience to help them hang with the high scoring Tigers. The Cyclones won SU at Oklahoma, and beat super fast TCU (14-7). If you don't believe how fast TCU is, just ask Stanford. IOST has size advantage at the WR vs DB level, and a RB in David Montgomery who is really good after first contact. I'll take a shot here with the road dog.

No PAC 12 team has looked good this Bowl season, but IMO Washington is the best team out of the conference. While their numbers are down a smidget from last year they were only a couple plays here and there away from getting back to the CFB playoffs TY. Still they were number 1 against the rush, and 5th overall in total defense. You can't knock that, even while the PAC 12 hasn't done well in the Bowls they're offenses are still very good. So I take that 5th ranking very seriously. Penn State also has a good defense, and we all know about how good their offense has been this year with Saquon Barkley leading the way. When I see two teams evenly matched like this on paper I'll lean to the dog which is what I'm doing here. Plus per Sports Insights; 83% of the money, and 77% of the tickets have come in on Penn State so far. Why not fade the betting majority (with rationale) in the biggest game of the day?

The final game of the day I'll go ahead and lay the points with Wisconsin even though they're playing in Miami. The Big Red fans travel well, and should be right there in the thick of it down in Miami, Florida tonight. I can't blame anyone for an excuse to get out of the Badger state for a few days of 80 degree weather this time of year regardless. Even though the Badgers faced an easy schedule I think that offensive line can dominate this game. The Canes on offense weren't spectacular as one might think with the the defense doing most of the work. I give a really big edge to Wisconsin on both sides of the ball tonight, and if they keep the TO Chain-gang in check I believe they'll walk away with a TD plus win.

Doc

[ex50Warrior]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

Nice day--congrats!

[Docwatson]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

Nice day--congrats!

Thank you & Happy New Year!!!

Doc

[Docwatson]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

Happy New Year!!! Here's to everyone having a prosperous 2018

Monday, 1/1/18

South Carolina (Gamecocks): Point Spread +8 -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00
Central Florida (Golden Knights): Point Spread +11 ½ -105 Risking $210.00 to win $200.00
LSU (Tigers): Point Spread -3 ½ -105 Risking $105.00 to win $100.00
Georgia (Bulldogs): Point Spread -2 ½ -115 Risking $115.00 to win $100.00
Alabama (Crimson Tide): Point Spread -3 -120 Risking $120.00 to win $100.00

In this first matchup of 2018 I'm taking the dog of a TD plus. I like South Carolina to bounce back off their worse showing of the year (vs Clemson) against a Michigan team who's offense is being run by a 3rd string QB that hasn't played since suffering a concussion. Neither team really lit it up that much this year on offense, but both played very well on the defensive side of the ball. South Carolina has been a solid underdog under HC Muschamp and I'll ride with them here today.

I think Auburn is a very good team, but I respect UCF's offense as well. With The Golden Knights HC staying with the team for this Bowl game leads me to believe they can hang within 10 points or less of Auburn. UCF isn't just smoke and Mirrors, and will fight with anyone. Much like Memphis did vs Iowa State. They ain't scared so lets grab the dog who averages 49 PPG here.

Not sure Notre Dame's one armed attack will be enough to hold back an LSU team who just got better with every game this year. The Irish have a solid rushing game, but Coach O's bunch has been very solid vs that very thing in 2017. The Tigers are more balanced now on offense, and the defense is what it always is (tough). I think we're all kind of use to seeing the Irish get Boat Raced this time of year, and looking at the momentum of both schools I feel LSU is ready to win by four or more. I'll lean to the team with the better defense to cover the smallish number here.

No use beating around the bush for the first of these two semifinal games. I think the number is slightly off favoring the team with the Heisman trophy winner. I believe Georgia with their solid rushing attack has the better offense here vs the Sooner defense. No knock against the Sooners, but that's just how I viewed this game. I've never been a fan of any team in CFB who relies on 70% plus through the air to win. It'll be a great game, however I'll go with the Dawg's to control the tempo, and keep Baker Mayfield and company on the sideline for a long period of time. IMO again, it all comes down to OU's defense, and how well they play. I have visions of how Va Tech played vs OKST a couple days ago. That's what I see hear except Georgia not making the mistakes the Hokies did.

Well I'm just like any other asshole out there with an opinion on the rubber match between Bama & Clemson. Dabo is so solid in Bowl games going 9-1 SU its hard not to take him as an underdog. I respect the hell out him and that Tiger program, and this year that defense has been solid. However my final conclusion in breaking this game down has Bama winning this game as I give them the edge on both sides of the ball. It's just a simple without any bullshit as that.

I break Bowl games down covering fourteen offensive and defensive categories. Then I look at how I think they matchup vs each other. Create my own line, and go off of that. Of these semi-final games my scores for these four teams (2-matchups) went like this.

Most points that can be gotten is 28:

Georgia - 18
Oklahoma - 10

Clemson - 12
Alabama - 20

Good Luck!

Doc

[MacDaddy33]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

[Chamblin]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

[Docwatson]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

With just the Natty remaining I was able to grind out a 19-13 record, for 59%, and made +$975.

Thanks to all you guys who wished Doc well.

Peace

[Docwatson]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

Championship Game!

1/8/2018:

Georgia (Bulldogs): Point Spread +4 -110 Risking $110.00 to win $100.00

I know people have probably gotten tired already of hearing all about this game, and my opinion isn't nothing special. For me I give Georgia the edge in offense with a 12-9 rating. That's a winning stat more times than not in this Championship game. The Tide has the edge in defense (I know DUH! right), but Georgia isn't a huge step behind. The Tide has been an underachiever against the spread this year. The book with the sharpest lines is Pinnacle and they've kept this at 3.5 for some time now. To me that's interesting when according to most bookmakers at LV casino's I've heard today all said they needed Georgia. One went as far as to say if it was a regular day I may not even know who Alabama was playing, because my ticket counter is all Alabama.

Not saying the fix is in, but I am saying it isn't quite as open and shut as a lot of bettors may think. I was very impressed with the way Smart brought Georgia out in the 2H of that Rose Bowl. At halftime he said we didn't have them ready, and that's on us as coaches. The guy is good, and I'm betting tonight he'll have them ready from start to finish.


Doc

[jumperjack]

Re: Bowl Games 2017:

doc

[captjoe388]

Re: Bowl Games 2017: