Bowl Season Betting Info

[NYK]

The underdog has gone just 1-10 straight up in both the Belk Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl since 2005.

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

Best bowl for moneyline dogs has been the Sugar Bowl (5-7 straight up, +12.18 units).

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

Why is Betting Against the Public so Profitable During College Football Bowl Season?
from David Solar - Sports Insights




College football bowl season kicks off in less than two weeks, and this month-long stretch represents a unique opportunity for contrarian bettors. During the regular season, there are usually over 50 games played on a given Saturday. During bowl season, there are 41 games spread across a prolonged period. With higher quality matchups and more attention paid to every game, sportsbooks experience much larger handles — particularly from casual bettors desperate for action. This influx of public money creates value for bettors looking to fade the public.

Using our historical database, I found the average bowl game receives more than three-to-four times the bets of an average regular season game. If we focus solely on BCS Bowls and College Football Playoff games, the number of bets is about five-to-six times the average regular season game. As we have previously stated, the value derived from betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed on each game. That bodes well for contrarian strategies, particularly when bettors wait for square money to artificially inflate the spread.

Just looking at last season’s ticket counts, we tracked just under 15,000 tickets per game during the regular season and just under 48,000 tickets during bowl season. In the three College Football Playoff games, we tracked an average of just over 110,000 tickets — that’s more than seven times more action than the average regular season game. In fact, these major bowl games usually take more action than most World Series games.

“Obviously the major bowls generate a much bigger handle, but all of them receive pretty good action,” said Scott Cooley, an Odds Consultant for Bookmaker.eu. “It’s safe to say that the early bowls generate as much action as an early season game, and more than a late season game. The major bowls will do more in handle than a game during the World Series, outside of Game 7.”

Contrary to popular belief, sportsbooks do not set their lines with the intention of attracting 50% of the action on each side. Rather than attempting to balance their book, oddsmakers shade their lines to capitalize on public perception and allow their sharpest bettors to shape the lines throughout the week. However, public money does factor into the line movement in the most heavily bet college football games.

Since the start of the 2005 season, teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks have gone 4,102-4,172 ATS (49.6%) during the regular season. When we focus on heavily bet games, which is defined as any matchup in which the number of bets exceeds than the daily average, that cover rate improves from 49.6% to 51.2%. That same methodology can be applied to when handicapping bowl games. During bowl season, teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets have gone 195-174 ATS (52.8%), which barely exceeds the 52.38% threshold needed to overcome the standard -110 juice charged by sportsbooks.


Last year, 10 of the 14 most heavily bet college football games of the year were Bowl games, including the top 5 most bet games of the season.

1.National Championship: Alabama (-6) vs. Clemson

2.Cotton Bowl: Alabama (-10) vs. Michigan State

3.Rose Bowl: Stanford (-6.5) vs. Iowa

4.Orange Bowl: Oklahoma (-3.5) vs. Clemson

5.Alamo Bowl: Oregon (-7.5) vs. TCU


It was interesting to see that an October 17th matchup between Michigan (-7.5) and Michigan State was the most heavily bet game of the regular season. That game featured one of the greatest endings in college football history and, although the final play didn’t impact the spread, it was an all-time bad beat for anybody who took the Wolverines moneyline.

With Michigan leading 23-21 and just 10 seconds remaining on the clock, Wolverines punter Blake O’Neill bobbled the snap, which was returned by Michigan State cornerback Jalen Watts-Jackson for a game-winning 38-yard touchdown. If you had Michigan State +260, you never get to complain about bad beats ever again.

According to our public betting trends, Michigan State closed with 86% of moneyline bets, which led to significant losses for sportsbooks. While this game was one of the most entertaining regular season matchups in recent memory, it’s the exception to the rule. Even second-tier bowl games receive more action than many marquee regular season games. For example, we tracked more bets on the 2015 Hawaii Bowl (Cincinnati vs. San Diego State) than we did for major conference rivalries like Mississippi/Alabama, Clemson/Louisville, and Baylor/Oklahoma.

Even market-setting sportsbooks like CRIS and Pinnacle will adjust their college football lines if one side is being hammered by public money. These artificially inflated lines have historically created value for opportunistic contrarian bettors since they’re getting a better line purely based on the opinion of recreational bettors. Often known as “squares” or “weekend warriors,” these casual bettors follow their intuition rather than data and analysis.

Casual bettors tend to overwhelmingly take the favorite, but they become increasingly willing to back the underdog in bowl games. My research found that the majority of public bettors (more than 50% of spread tickets) have taken the underdog in 16.1% of regular season games, while the majority of public bettors have taken the underdog in 19.2% of bowl games. That tendency has increased in recent years, with the majority of bettors taking the ‘dog in 26.3% of bowl games over the past two seasons.

“The public still has little impact on the odds, but maybe a bit more than normal because the sharps aren’t involved in every bowl,” according to Cooley. “I think the public plays more dogs than normal because they see their favorite team or a high-profile team in a matchup where they are getting points.”

It’s interesting to note that during bowl season, betting against the public has been an effective strategy for both favorites and ‘dogs. In fact, it’s been slightly more profitable taking contrarian favorites, which highlights the value of fading the trendy underdog.



Schools receiving less than 50% of spread bets during bowl season


Criteria / Record (ATS) / Win Rate


Favorites ... 40-32 ... 55.6%

Underdogs ... 155-142 ... 52.2%



Most sportsbooks are able to anticipate which games will take one-sided public betting, so they will shade their opening lines to account for the predictable flood of public money. If the liability becomes too great, they will oftentimes adjust their number to encourage action on the other side, thereby mitigating some of their risk. With more public money entering the market during bowl season, this tendency is magnified and the value of fading the public increases.

While betting against the public represents a consistently profitable strategy, it’s only one component of employing a contrarian strategy. Past research has found that most casual bettors overvalue ranked teams and overreact to recent events. That’s one reason it’s so important to buy on bad news and sell on good news.

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

Temple Owls: 12 Straight ATS Wins


The last time Temple failed to cover was September 2, in their first game of the season. Since that loss to Army, the Owls have covered in all of their 12 games. That span has seen Temple go 10-2 SU with neither of those two losses coming by more than seven points.

Temple will enter the Military Bowl as favorites over a 6-6 Wake Forest team that struggled to score all season. It is unlikely that the Demon Deacons will be able to score enough points against the eighth-ranked scoring defense in the country to cover the spread.

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

Pitt Panthers: 11 Straight OVERS


Pitt’s combination of high-scoring offense and woeful defense has made them the best OVER play in the nation heading into bowl season. The Panthers are averaging 42.3 points per game behind a rushing attack that has scored the eighth-most touchdowns in the nation. When you mix that with a secondary that is allowing over 450 yards per game and has allowed the 13th most passing touchdowns in the country, you should expect points galore.

Pitt’s secondary could be torched when they take on Northwestern in the Pinstripe Bowl, as the Wildcats’ Austin Carr has recorded 84 receptions, 1196 yards and 12 touchdowns through the air this season.

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

Texas A&M Aggies: Eight Straight ATS Losses


The season started with so much promise for Texas A&M but ultimately ended as a disappointment. The Aggies opened the season going 4-0 SU and ATS before closing out the season going 4-4 SU and 0-8 ATS in their final eight games. Expectations may have been too high for Texas A&M after a hot start, as they faced closing spreads of -19.5, -43.5 and -25.5 during their past eight games.

The Aggies opened as slight favorites over Kansas State for the Texas Bowl. Texas A&M should actually be in a better spot in that game, as injured quarterback Trevor Knight should be back at full strength after being sidelined due to a shoulder injury.

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

Penn State Nittany Lions: Eight Straight ATS Wins


Penn State became the talk of the college football world, as the Nittany Lions won their last nine games to claim the Big Ten conference crown over teams like Ohio State and Michigan. Bettors have been tailing this success as well, with Penn State covering in their past nine contests entering their Rose Bowl matchup with USC.

The reason for Penn State’s rise to prominence was an offense that averaged 35.1 points during their winning streak. Quarterback Trace McSorley has been incredibly efficient with the sophomore posting 20 touchdowns and just two interceptions in the past nine outings. McSorely may be in for a big game against a USC defense that ranks a mediocre 62nd against the pass this season.

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

Ohio State coach Urban Meyer is 8-2 ATS in bowl games


Sports Insights ...

Ohio State (-3.5) currently receiving just 40% of spread bets vs Clemson

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

Heisman winners 8-1 SU ... 6-3 ATS in bowl games since 2009, but just 2-6 SU/ATS in 8 years prior.


L. Jackson and Louisville +3.5 dogs vs LSU.

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Saturday, December 17 (2 p.m. ET)

Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS): After six years of existence, UTSA is finally going bowling for the first time in school history. Motivation, dedication and focus will not be an issue. And it doesn’t hurt that the Roadrunners went 4-1 ATS over their final five games of the season.

New Mexico Lobos (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS): The Lobos concluded the 2016 regular season with six wins over the program’s final seven contests, winning by an average of 14.5 points per game. However, be advised that New Mexico is just 2-6 ATS over its last eight games against C-USA opposition.

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

Las Vegas Bowl: Saturday, December 17 (3:30 p.m. ET)

Houston Cougars (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS): The Cougars covered the number just once over their final seven games and will play the Las Vegas Bowl without highly-regarded head coach Tom Herman, who jumped ship to Texas at the conclusion of the regular season. The upside? New head coach Major Applewhite was already on-staff serving as Houston’s offensive coordinator.

San Diego State Aztecs (10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS): The Aztecs have one of the nation’s most explosive running backs in Donnel Pumphrey (2,018 rushing yards, 16 TDs), but be advised that head coach Rocky Long is just 3-7 both SU and ATS in bowl games. In addition, the Aztecs are just 2-9-1 ATS over their last 12 non-conference matchups.

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl: Saturday, December 17 (5:30 p.m. ET)

Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS): The Mountaineers return to the site of their first ever bowl victory, which came in the form of a 31-29 thriller over Ohio last winter. Appalachian State enters the Camellia Bowl in white-hot fashion having won eight of its final nine contests by an average of 20.8 points per game.

Toledo Rockets (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS): Toledo is making its sixth bowl appearance over the last seven years, with a 3-2 record during that span, which includes back-to-back straight victories. The Rockets are 8-0-1 ATS over their last nine non-conference matchups.

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

AutoNation Cure Bowl: Saturday, December 17 (5:30 p.m. ET)

UCF Knights (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS): After a one-year hiatus, rookie head coach Scott Frost has Central Florida back in the postseason. Central Florida is 7-3 ATS over its last 10 games overall, but enters December having dropped each of its final two contests (35-20 vs. Tulsa, 48-31 at South Florida).

Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS): A dreadful 0-4 start to the season (both SU and ATS) gave way to a 7-1 record down the stretch (6-2 ATS) as Arkansas State is going bowling for the sixth straight season. However, note that the Red Wolves are an abysmal 0-6 ATS over their last six non-conference matchups.

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Saturday, December 17 (9 p.m. ET)

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (6-6 SU, 3-8 ATS): The Golden Eagles went 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS over their final seven games of the season, but produced a shocking 39-24 upset win over Louisiana Tech as 14.5-point underdogs in the season finale to get bowl eligible. Southern Mississippi has failed to cover the point spread in each of its last four bowl games.

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS): The Cajuns defeated Arkansas State (24-19, +5) and Louisiana-Monroe (30-3, -5.5) over the final two weeks of the season to earn the six victories necessary for bowl eligibility. Unlike Southern Mississippi, however, UL Lafayette is a perfect 4-0 ATS over its last four bowl appearances.

[NYK]

Re: Bowl Season Betting Info

Miami Beach Bowl: Monday, December 19 (2:30 p.m. ET)

Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS): The Chippewas dropped four of their final five regular season matchups and are 1-4 ATS over their last five games against teams with a winning record. But be advised that this Central Michigan program is 8-2 ATS over its last 10 non-conference showdowns and is looking to notch only the program’s fourth bowl victory since 1990.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS): Tulsa covered the spread in six of its final seven regular season games thanks, in large part, to an offense that hung 40 or more points on the opposition in nine of 12 contests this past year. Additionally, the Golden Hurricane are 5-1 ATS over their last six bowl games.