Bowl Systems

[rolltide]

Massey ratings...(play better defense ATS in every game, add some ML if a dog)
- remember that if a ranking is close check back just before the game because earlier bowl games will influence the rankings, https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fbs/ratings

Play team on left. is 0-2 ATS ytd and been just a bit over .500 L2 years after crushing it before 2019. way too many favs imo but will update these as the bowls come along. Today is all favs starting with App State in an hour

43 App St vs 99 WKU
54 Fresno vs 111 UTEP
47 BYU vs 68 UAB
76 Liberty vs 110 EMU
57 Oregon St vs 70 Utah St
40 UL Laf vs 71 Marshall


12/20 = Massey 1-7 ATS ytd

57 Tulsa vs 101 ODU
52 Wyom vs 123 Kent
40 SDSU vs 77 UTSA
60 Army vs 90 Mizzou

[rolltide]

VSIN systems:
ON bowl teams that won <4 games LY when matched against a team that won 4+ (26-9 ATS = USCe, BAY, Wazzou)
ON bowl teams that won final reg season game to be bowl eligible (21-8 ATS = on BallSt, FLA, LSU, MidTn, WVU) = there is no long-term fit here, just a big 29 game run
ON teams that covered 25% or less reg season games (34-23 ATS = on BallSt, BYU, Miami Oh, Missouri, SCState, WMU)
OVER ACC vs AAC (9-1-1 ou = BC over, Wake over)
ACC vs Big 10 the game winner has covered 21 straight (PITT/MSU, VT/MD)
Mtn West the favorite is 24-1 ATS (on favs involved in Mtn West games)
UNDER SEC dog vs ACC fav (8-20 ou = UNC/USCe under)
ON favorites in games with AAC playing (20-5 ATS = oppose CIN, HOU, MEM, ECU, SMU, TUL, UCF)
UNDER Big12 excluding weird 2020 year (20-40 ou = all B12 teams, especially ones played between Christmas and New Years.... ISU/CLEM, OU/OU, TTU/MSU, WVU/MN)
VS Big12 in Jan games (14-33 ATS = against BAY, ISU, KSU, OKST)


betlabs of interest today:
UNDER heavy winds (473-622 ou - UAB u55, WKU u66.5) 29-47 ou YTD
UNDER windy conditions, heavy betting on Under (80-142 ou = UAB u55, WKU u66.5)
PLAY ON bowl dogs <7 getting less than 1/3 of the bets (49-23 ATS = on UAB)
PLAY ON bowl dogs 3-7.5 getting less than 1/3 of the bets (51-18 ATS = on UAB)
PLAY ON reverse line move bowl teams getting <40% of bets but line moved in favor (200-128 ATS = on UAB)

[rolltide]

betlabs 12/20-12/22

ON ml bowl dog line moved 0.5-2.5 points against them (54-74 +131% = on ODU ml, on Mizzu ml)
Over bowl over moved 2-2.5 from opener (31-17 ou = ODU/TUL o)
ON bowl dog <7 getting <33% of bets (49-23 +132% = on Kent, on Mizzu)
ON bowl dog <9.5 vs opponent that won >60% YTD (91-51 +124% = on UTSA, on Mizzu)

[Chamblin]

[rolltide]

info for 12/23-27 games

note for today: North Texas is without question the fastest paced team in the FBS ... #1 in plays/game (away/neutral site & in the FBS) ... #1 in plays/minute (away/neutral site) & #2 in plays/minute in the FBS

mine thru 12/27
BOWL UNDER with over streaking fav and 45.5-64.5 total (5-30 ou = MIA/NTX under)
BOWL OPPOSE bowl favs off b2b losses (28-50 ATS = on ECU)
BOWL ON DEC bowlers that won just <=3 of final 8 games playing opp that won 3+ of final 8, total<58 (43-16 ATS = on FLA, BC)

betlabs 12/23-12/27
ON ml dog in bowl line move 0.5-2.5 points (54-75 +130% = on UCF ml, Ball St ml) 1-2 ytd
ON bowl fav getting <40% of bets (67% = on NoTx, Fla) 1-0 ytd - this is tightener of 219-174 +108% ATS bowl spot (NoTx, Fla, Hawaii)
ON lowly bet bowl dog <17 with 20-40% of wagers (156-111 +113% = on Hawaii) 4-1 ytd
ON bowl dog <40% of bets, total<55 (77-50 +118% = on Ball St) 4-0 ytd
ON extremely low bet bowl dog<33%, getting <7 points (49-23 +132% = on Ball St) 1st of bowl season
ON Big10/SEC/SBC bowl team <40% of bets (64-27 +136% = on Fla) 1-0 ytd
OVER bowl total moved up 2-2.5 points (37-17 ou = NoTx over, BC over) 2-0 ou ytd

VSIN thru 12/27:
ON bowl teams that won final reg season game to be bowl eligible (21-8 ATS = on BallSt, FLA)
ON bowl teams that covered 25% or less reg season games (36-24 ATS = on BallSt, Miami Oh, WMU)
OVER ACC vs AAC (9-1-1 ou = BC over)
ON Mtn West the favorite is 25-2 ATS (on Memphis, WMU)
ON fav in games with AAC playing (20-5 ATS = on BC, Memphis)

Massey 4-8 ytd
79 Miami vs 108 No Texas
35 Florida vs 77 UCF
80 Georgia St vs 90 Ball St (check this on Saturday)
68 Nevada vs 99 Western Mich
48 BC vs 84 ECU

[Chamblin]

[rolltide]

NCAA Bowls 12/28-12/30

Massey 6-10 YTD
19 Auburn vs 59 Houston
33 Air Force vs 51 Lville
38 Miss St vs 74 Texas Tech
23 NC St vs 54 UCLA
13 Minnesota vs 36 WVU
39 Va Tech vs 79 Maryland
8 Clemson vs 11 Iowa St
30 Oklahoma vs 42 Oregon
41 SoCar vs 87 NoCar
15 Purdue vs 52 Tennessee
29 Mich St vs 32 Pitt
3 Wisconsin vs 25 Ariz State

VSIN
ON bowl teams that won <4 games LY when matched against a team that won 4+ (27-9 ATS = SoCar)
ON bowl teams that won final reg season game to be bowl eligible (21-10 ATS = on WVU)
ON fav in Mtn West bowl game (26-2 ATS = Lville or AFA, whichever is favored)
UNDER SEC dog vs ACC fav (8-20 ou = SoCar/NoCar u58)
ON favorites in games with AAC playing (21-6 ATS = on Aub if stay fav)
UNDER Big12 b/w 12/25-1/1 (Clemson u44.5, Oregon u60, Miss St u58.5, Minn u45)
ON teams in top 10 rushing yards per game (51-30 ATS = on Air Force)
VS P10 bowl teams (7-23 ATS = on Wisc, Okla, NCST) especially off a loss (1-13 ATS = on Oklahoma)

Mine
UNDER high scoring fav or small dog with total <67 in bowl or playoffs (12-45 ou = PIT/MSU under)
BOWL UNDER with over streaking fav and 45.5-64.5 total (5-31 ou = PIT/MSU u)
BOWL PLAY ON bowl teams not 10+ dogs that won conf champ as fav or tiny dog (37-9 ATS = on PITT)
BOWL OPPOSE bowl favs off b2b losses (28-50 ATS = on HOU)
BOWL ON DEC dog off b2b losses, allow <35 ppg (47-26 ATS = on Tex Tech)
BOWL ON DEC bowlers that won just <=3 of final 8 games playing opp that won 3+ of final 8, total<58 (43-17 ATS = on AUB, LOU, MARY)
BOWL ON teams avg 36.5+ rushes vs opp avg 38.5+ passes(51-24 ATS = on Mich St, Tenn)
BOWL VS ranked bowl teams off a 10+ loss (23-40 ATS = on AUB, OKLA, AZ ST, UTAH) ... and lost as a 4.5+ dog (7-25 ATS = on AUB, AZ ST, UTAH)

trends
L4 overall Auburn has averaged just 19 PPG (10.6 points less then their season avg.)
Mississippi State has been better in almost every statistical category away from home TY ... PPG, YPG, YPP, PPG allowed, YPG allowed & YPP allowed
Oregon has been solid against teams over .500 (7 games vs. just 4 for Oklahoma) ... #49 in YPG (391.7) → Oklahoma is #73 ... #27 in YPP (5.99) → Oklahoma is #49
Maryland is 2-6 ATS in the L8 ... allowing 40.25 PPG
Auburn is 60-17 as favorites in their last 77 games while Houston is 4-15 as underdogs in their last 19 games
Air Force is 7-0 ATS L7 vs teams allowing >4.3 ypr
Academies are 38-15 ATS L53 bowls, 67% WP academies are 18-2 ATS if opponent not off 10+ point win
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in the L5 (after starting 0-7) ... have scored at least 30 points in previous 5 games
WVU is 1-10 ATS in last 11 bowl games and lost 9 s
South Carolina has struggled away from home ... getting out-gained by 105.3 MORE YPG away from home ... outscored by 13.4 MORE PPG away from home ... getting out-gained by 1.18 MORE YPP away from home
Tennessee has struggled defensively against teams over .500 ... allowing 516 YPG (#121) & 41.4 PPG (#114)

[Chamblin]

[rolltide]

Massey 14-16 YTD
1 UGA 2 MICH
4 OkSt 10 NDU
5 PSU 38 ARK
13 OHST 19 UTAH
9 IOWA 25 UK
14 BAY 31 MISS
16 KST 29 LSU

ON bowl teams that won <4 games LY when matched against a team that won 4+ (27-10 ATS = on Baylor)
VS Big12 in Jan games (14-33 ATS = on Miss, LSU, ND)
UNDER high scoring fav or small dog with total <67 in bowl or playoffs (12-47 ou = OSU/UTAH)
ON bowl teams not 10+ dogs that won conf champ as fav or tiny dog (37-10 ATS = on UTAH)
ON B12/P12/SBC team getting <34% of bets in a reverse line move (44-28 ATS = on Baylor)
ON B10/SEC/SBC bowl team getting <40% of bets (65-27 ATS = on Penn St, on LSU)
ON heavily bet bowl game with team getting far more money than tickets (203-128 ATS = on Baylor, Okla St)
VS bowl fav or pk'em that won and covered 3+ straight vs 5+ win team off a game scoring <27 (39-12 ATS = on Okla St) = also 44-7 in 6-pt teaser
OVER bowl dog of <4.5 won b2b games by 11+ points (20-5 ou = UTA/OSU over) - if Miss flips to underdog that game will also match

notes
Notre Dame has covered 7 straight games ... also 7-0 in the 1H of the L7 ATS

Iowa #2 in turnover margin, UK #127 in turnover margin

Ohio State defense has struggled in comparison to Utah against teams over .500 ... OSU = #61 in YPG allowed (416) vs. Utah @ #10 ... OSU = #35 in PPG allowed (28.3) vs. Utah @ #10 ... OSU = #58 in YPP allowed (5.94) vs. Utah @ #15

LSU has struggled away from home ... allowing 69.6 more YPG away from home vs. season average ... allowing 5.9 more PPG away from home vs. season average ... allowing 0.92 more YPP away from home vs. season average