If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
The Massey System....it is as simple as this.... play the better rated Massey defense in every bowl game ATS and a bit on money line for underdogs https://www.masseyratings.com/cf2019/fbs/ratings Negative is you're playing a lot of favs but you will never get buried by always playing the better defense (the lower number)
12/20-12/26: TEAM on LEFT is "play on" ... if dog, like Fla Atlantic, you play both ATS and Money Line Buffalo 70 Charlotte 112 Utah State 81 Kent 105 San Diego St 11 C Michigan 97 Ga Southern 56 Liberty 118 Fla Atlantic 54 SMU 85 Fla International 100 Arkansas St 109 Washington 14 Boise St 31 App State 37 UAB 73 Central Fla 53 Marshall 61 BYU 55 Hawaii 102 Miami 39 La Tech 96 Pitt 26 Eastern Mich 110 Temple 45 North Carolina 62 Michigan St 20 Wake Forest 77 Texas a&m 21 Oklahoma St 34 Iowa 3 USC 48 Air Force 30 Washington St 84 Notre Dame 15 Iowa St 33 Penn St 7Memphis 53 LSU 12 Oklahoma 28 Clemson 2 Ohio St 4 W Kentucky 45 W Michigan 84 California 17 Illinois 65 Miss State 37 Louisville 102 Florida 7 Virginia 62 Kentucky 21 Va Tech 48 Arizona St 27 Florida St 60 Kansas St 33 Navy 43 Wyoming 28 Georgia St 118 Utah 9 Texas 44
= 16-12-1 ATS 2019 bowl games
REMINDER = after each game Massey ratings CHANGE because it takes into account your previous opponents and their previous opponents. SO the ones that are close (like UCF vs Marshall) need to be rechecked before game. Historically the best plays are when team defenses are separated by 30 or more, like FAU. play only through NYE games
Bowl Totals: UNDER neutral non conf, high total combined >62 ppg and both good margins YTD (55-87 o/u = OSU/aTm u, Mem/PSU u,OSU/CLem u, ISU/ND u,UVA/Fla u, Tex/Utah u, Nav/KSt u,Mich/Ala u) note: 6-11, 4-8, 4-8 L3 years
UNDER bog game diff of >10% WP and good defense (41-93 = Boi/Wash u, App/UAB u,LT/MIA u, Wake/MSU u,Tem/NC u,AF/WSU u, ND/ISU u,FLA/UVA u,Utah/Tex u, Navy/KSt u,Cin/BC u,Laf/MiaO u) note: only 1 of 13 years with more overs than unders
UNDER DEC bowl dogs with good margin (34-65 o/u = OkSt/aTm u, Mem/PSU u,OSU/Clem u, ISU/ND u, UVa/Fla u, Tex/Utah u, Navy/Kst u) note: 3-9, 3-7, 3-6 L3 yr
UNDER bg/po team avg 40+ ppg as fav or small dog in bowl with a total <=63 (3-25 o/u = UCF/Marsh u, ALA/Mich u,JMU/NDST u)
UNDER 3+ straight overs, fav, and opponent not on 3+ straight unders (3-28 = Buf/Cha u,Ohio/Nev u)
UNDER 40+ppg fav or dog<7 total<67 (10-40 = JM/NoIA u, NDST/IlSt u, JM/WEB u,UCF/Marsh u, Clem/OSU u, Ala/Mich u, JM/NDSU u) worst year went 1-1
UNDER MAC midweek under (14-55 & 3-9 in bg = EMU/Pitt u, WMU/WKY u, MIAO/LAF u)
UNDER off OT game scoring <65 and 31 or less rest (3-20 o/u = WF/MSU u,UGA/BAY u)
UNDER good ppg defense after allowing >45 final game of season, playing good ppg defense (3-26 o/u = OSU/aTm u,UVA/Fla u, Ala/Mich u) note: 1-20 o/u if opponent allowed 15+ last game. All 3 games fit for 2019 and Bama/Mich is a double fit.
Bowl Sides: VS bg favs off b2b losses (2-30 = play on Eastern Michigan) note: avg line is -5 and these teams are 9-24SU
VS dec major conf favs of 8 or more vs opponent with 7 or less wins (6-28 = play on Eastern Michigan) note: 1-16 ATS L17 with only 9SU wins vs avg line of -11
ON dec bg team off great rushing defense game (62-20 = on Wash,on LSU, on Fla, on Cal, on Texas, on Kansas St) BUT after 8 str8 years of no worse than 67% these went 1-4 LY
ON bg off hfl but won 3+ before that (33-10 = play on Nevada) note: only 1 losing year in 14
ON academy in bg vs opponent with 8+ wins (17-3 = play on Navy) note: 12-1 ATS L13
ON DEC dog off b2b losses allowing <35 ppg (60-29 = play on Illinois) no losing season since 1997
ON team off a champ gave fav win (42-9 = on FAU, on Boise, on AppSt, on Alcorn,on Memphis, on LSU) note: 1 losing year since 1991
ON better rush po/bg team, better rush defense, no more than 10% higher WP, and fav of 3.5+ (39-10 = on JMAD (v Mon), on Buff, on GaSo, on Pitt,on UGA, on Miss St) note: 1-1 and 1-3 L2 yr
ON 6 win bowl dog not off a blowout win (67-19 = play on Kent, FIU, E Mich, Wash St, Illini,and Florida St) last losing season 1997
VS non-elite team allowing >25ppg, fav or small dog, and opponent off a loss (16-54 = play on BYU, on Nevada, on SoMiss) 2-4, 0-7, 1-3 L3 yr...worst year 1-1 in 1999
ON 6-6 team that won last game and opponent positive ppg margin (44-19 = play on Kent, Mich St, UNC,Miss St, BC) 10-1 L11
ON teams avg 36.5+ rushes vs opp avg 38.5+ passes (49-10 = play on Kent, on Air Force) note: 14-1 L15
ON 33+/g rush teams with a lot of rest vs 30+/g Pac12 passing teams (16-1 = play on Iowa, on Air Force,on Florida St, on Wisconsin)
ON bowlers that won just <=3 of final 8 games playing opp that won 3+ of final 8, low total <59 (43-12 = play on EMich, on Mich St, on Cal,on BC, on Tulane)
Bowls, numbers only....most are bowl-specific but still have to run my favorite total system which is on my work computer (play under in game 7+ less total than each of L2 previous games). Will probably run again midweek
Ball/SJSU under = 19-46 ou
UAB/USCe under = 16-40 ou
UK/NSCU under = 13-36 ou
BUF/MAR under = 4-26 ou
UGA/CIN under = 3-30 ou
BYU/UCF under = 0-10 ou neutral fav<6.5 with 7-10 wins and >70 total
44-102 ou system (6-16 ou L2 yr) unders in NEV, BYU, ULLAF, GaSt, Coastal, MIAFL, IOWA, TULSA, WVU, SJSU, NORW, CIN, aTm, NCST
58-92 ou system (16-32 L4 yr) unders in NEV, MARSH, ULLAF, Coastal, MIAFL, BALL, OSU, ND, and ORE
36-69 ou system (11-23 L4 yr) unders in NEV, MARSH, ULLAF, Coastal, MIAFL, BALL
11-47 ou system unders in MARSH, TEX, CLEM, ALA
vs FLA 4-31
vs IOWA 16-40
vs IOWA 6-29 (1-17 L18)
on MIA FL 33-11
on FAU, WAKE, MIZ, ARK 60-30
on OU, CIN, OSU, CLEM, ALA 42-15 (just 4-7 L11)
on UCF, BALL 70-23
vs BUF 5-20
on BYU 173-86
Bowls, numbers only....most are bowl-specific but still have to run my favorite total system which is on my work computer (play under in game 7+ less total than each of L2 previous games).
UNDER total<69 which is 7+ less than either of L2 games (383-674 ou = MEM/FAU u, WAKE/WISC u) 19-35 ou 2020
VS game 6+ taems off their first loss of season which happened at home or neutral and did not turn opponent over 3+ times (8-44 = on Marsh, on Ala)
Massey ratings...LY 16-12 ATS after a strong finish (play better defense ATS in every game, add some ML if a dog) ... remember that if a ranking is close check back just before the game because earlier bowl games will influence the rankings. These rankings are as of 12/22 for games through sunday
App State48 vs No Texas 127 Nevada 61 vs Tulane 70 BYU29 vs UCF 82 Ga So 78 vs La Tech 90
Memphis 83 vs FAU 50
Hawaii 96 vs Houston 87
Buffalo 95 vs Marshall 47 Coastal 54 vs Liberty 89 UL Laf 53 vs UTSA 101
Ga State 110 vsW Ky 73 Okla State17 vs Miami Fl 33
Colorado 56 vs Texas 43 Wisconsin3 vs Wake Forest 70
Florida 27 vs Oklahoma 14
Army 37 vs West Va 20
Tulsa 30 vs Miss St 19
Ball St 88 vs San Jose St42
Cincy 17 vs Georgia 2
Auburn 8 vs Northwestern 1 Alabama 6 vs Notre Dame 10 Clemson 5 vs Ohio State 7 Kentucky 16 vs NC State 67 Indiana 12 vs Ole Miss 83 Iowa State 11 vs Oregon 18
UNC vs Texas a&m 9
30-70 ou = UNDER Bowl or Playoff game with fav (or no more than 1pt dog) avg >37.5 ppg, opponent >22ppg and didn't win 11+ LY (BYU u, Buffalo u, Texas u)
tightener of above:
underdog avg >39.67 ppg (0-13 ou = BYU/UCF under)
note: these have gone under by avg of 14.54 ppg with avg of 35-20 win for favorite. Only once has the dog scored above their season average in ppg
add another....
2-22 o/u = UNDER postseason neither offense >28 ppg, fav didn't win 14+LY and dog didn't just allow 34 (TUL/MST u, WVU/ARMY u, NW/AUB u) ... avg 36ppg vs 46 total
yes there's other parameters that go into it. i just provide a general overview of the main conditions that set the system up. and that one for high scoring dog is an extension of the one above so you need to put in the fav averages >37.5 to start with...
BOWL UNDER teams covering 0-1 of L6 games (7-26 ou = CC/NIL u, LIB/EMU u, SDSU/UTSA u, FLA/UCF u, MD/VT u, IA/UK u) 'wins': 7, 'losses': 26, 'margin': -17
some statfox trends and stats:
Toledo is #7 in YPP differential (+1.74 YPP), on top of #2 away from home (+2.12 YPP) vs. Mid. Tenn. who got out-gained by 1.34 YPP vs. teams over .500
Northern Illinois is 1-8 OU in the 1Q of the L9 games
UAB has 5 straight ATS W’s on the road (6-1 ATS away from home TY)
Marshall is 5-1 ATS away from home ... #7 in YPG away/neutral (477) ... #5 in PPG away/neutral (38.8) ... #5 in YPP away/neutral (6.93)
Utah State has thrived away from home, they are 6-1 ATS ... covering by 16.7 PPG ... #9 in YPG differential (+132.6) ... #5 in PPG differential (+17.4) ... #17 in YPP differential (+1.15)
UTSA is #12 in PPG TY (37.8) but their SOS is #120 ... resulting in 5-1 OU in the L6 ... 7-1 OU in the 1H of the L8 ... 9-1 OU in the 1Q of the L10
North Texas is without question the fastest paced team in the FBS ... #1 in plays/game (away/neutral site & in the FBS) ... #1 in plays/minute (away/neutral site) & #2 in plays/minute in the FBS
L4 overall Auburn has averaged just 19 PPG (10.6 points less then their season avg.)
Mississippi State has been better in almost every statistical category away from home TY ... PPG, YPG, YPP, PPG allowed, YPG allowed & YPP allowed
Oregon has been solid against teams over .500 (7 games vs. just 4 for Oklahoma) ... #49 in YPG (391.7) → Oklahoma is #73 ... #27 in YPP (5.99) → Oklahoma is #49
Maryland is 2-6 ATS in the L8 ... allowing 40.25 PPG
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in the L5 (after starting 0-7) ... have scored at least 30 points in previous 5 games
South Carolina has struggled away from home ... getting out-gained by 105.3 MORE YPG away from home ... outscored by 13.4 MORE PPG away from home ... getting out-gained by 1.18 MORE YPP away from home
Tennessee has struggled defensively against teams over .500 ... allowing 516 YPG (#121) & 41.4 PPG (#114)
Wake Forest is allowing 22 plays per game of 10+ yards
Central Michigan has covered 4 straight games ... covering by 18.125 PPG on average
Notre Dame has covered 7 straight games ... also 7-0 in the 1H of the L7 ATS
Ohio State defense has struggled in comparison to Utah against teams over .500 ... OSU = #61 in YPG allowed (416) vs. Utah @ #10 ... OSU = #35 in PPG allowed (28.3) vs. Utah @ #10 ... OSU = #58 in YPP allowed (5.94) vs. Utah @ #15
LSU has struggled away from home ... allowing 69.6 more YPG away from home vs. season average ... allowing 5.9 more PPG away from home vs. season average ... allowing 0.92 more YPP away from home vs. season average
Comment