NCAA Footba Betting Info 11/24/

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Thanksgiving Day NCAAF betting preview: LSU at Texas A&M


No. 16 Louisiana State Tigers at No. 25 Texas A&M Aggies (+7.5, 47)


Texas A&M and LSU went from SEC contenders to third place in the West Division over the last few weeks and just hope to close out their respective seasons strong. The 22nd-ranked Aggies, who still have a shot at second place in the West, will try to put together back-to-back wins when they host LSU on Thursday in a Thanksgiving battle.


Texas A&M was in fourth place in the first College Football Playoff rankings but dropped its next two games to Mississippi State and Ole Miss to drop to 25th before recovering with a 23-10 victory over non-conference foe UTSA on Saturday. The Aggies are still a possibility for a Sugar Bowl berth, which would go to the second-highest ranked team from the SEC, and would finish in second place in the SEC West with a win on Thursday and an Auburn loss against Alabama. The Tigers, who lost to Auburn earlier in the year, have no shot at second place and could be playing for interim coach Ed Orgeron's job on Thursday. LSU won three straight after Orgeron took over for Les Miles but since dropped two of three while looking unimpressive on the offensive end.


TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.


LINE HISTORY: LSU opened as 5.5-point road favorites, that spread was bet down early in the week to 5, the line reversed track Tuesday and jumped up to 6.5 and continued to rise to the current number of 7.5. The total hit the board at 45 and rose steadily all week to reach the current number at 47.


INJURY REPORT:


LSU - FB B. Mouton (Questionable, undisclosed), RB L. Fournette (Doubtful, ankle), WR T. Dural (Questionable, undisclosed), LB K. Beckwith (Out, knee), WR J. Ferguson (Out, suspension), S R. Jefferson (Out For Season, leg), S C. Thompson (Out For Season, knee), DE I. Washington (Out For Season, knee), DT C. LaCouture (Out For Season, knee).


Texas A&M - QB J. Hubenak (Probable, shoulder), DB P. Willis (Probable, undisclosed), DB A. Watts (Questionable, leg), DB D. Wilson (Questionable, undisclosed), OL J. Eluemunor (Questionable, undisclosed), DB N. Harvey (Questionable, undisclosed), RB T. Williams (Questionable, undisclosed), OL C. Lanfear (Out For Season, knee), DB N. Ellis (Out For Season, leg), QB T. Knight (Out For Season, shoulder), LB J. Dunning (Out Indefinitely, suspension), DB J. Dunning (Out For Season, knee), WR Q. Davis (Out For Season, knee).


WEATHER REPORT: The weather conditions for this Thanksgiving evening game at College Station, Texas are expected to be clear with temperatures in the low-60's or upper-50's. There will be no wind that will impact the game.


ABOUT LSU (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, 1-7-1 O/U): Orgeron was expected to spark the Tigers offense but watched his team score one touchdown in five goal-to-go chances on Saturday at home against Florida, including a goal-line stand that clinched the setback. "We shot ourselves in the foot and had a lot of opportunities in the red zone," Orgeron told reporters. "We didn't convert any points. Two turnovers were really costly in the football game. Guys fought the whole way, gave us a chance to win the football game." Star running back Leonard Fournette, who was hobbled by an ankle injury that has plagued him on and off all season, was limited to 40 yards on 12 carries Saturday and will likely miss Thursday's game.


ABOUT TEXAS A&M (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS, 3-7-1 O/U): The Aggies' biggest star - defensive end Myles Garrett - has been hobbled most of the season as well but finally looked fully healthy on Saturday and recorded 4 1/2 sacks in the win. Garrett, who is expected to go high in the first round of the next NFL draft, became the eighth player in SEC history to record 30 or more sacks in his career (32 1/2). Texas A&M, which lost starter Trevor Knight to a shoulder injury in the loss to Mississippi, is still getting used to Jake Hubenak at quarterback, and the junior threw for 248 yards and a touchdown against UTSA.


TRENDS:


* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
* Aggies are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Under is 9-1 in Tigers last 10 games in November.
* Under is 11-2-1 in Aggies last 14 games on grass.
* Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.


CONSENSUS: 58 percent are taking the home underdog while 52 percent favor the Over in this battle of top 25 teams.

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Re: NCAA Footba Betting Info 11/24/

LSU at Texas A&M
By Joe Nelson


Matchup: LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies
Venue: Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 24, 7:30 PM ET - ESPN
Line: LSU -6, Over/Under 48½
Last Meeting: 2015, at LSU (-5½) 19, Texas A&M 7


At home with rumors surrounding the future of Les Miles and LSU riding a three-game losing streak, the Tigers delivered a 19-7 win over Texas A&M to close the regular season last November. Miles was carried off the field and athletic director Joe Alleva announced that Miles would stay at LSU shortly after the game. LSU went on to dominate the Texas Bowl and opened the 2016 season considered a serious SEC and national contender.


The Tigers struggled early in the season on offense, dropping a marquee opening matchup with Wisconsin and then managing just 13 points in a loss at Auburn that prompted a coaching change mid-season.


Former Ole Miss and USC head coach Ed Orgeron stepped in and led the Tigers to three straight wins but with losses in two of the last three games and few signs of progress for the offense against top competition, this looks like a program headed for more changes in the coming months.


LSU will be in a bowl game regardless of the Thanksgiving night result but at 6-4 and with a middle-of-the-pack SEC finish the direction of the program is unclear. With potential openings at a couple of other big schools the Tigers may not be able to pull in their top candidate for head coach if Orgeron is not retained and it will be interesting to see what the staff looks like for a minor bowl slot as the veteran head coach may not want to ride out the season if he is passed over as he went through a similar situation with USC in 2013.


Despite having early season Heisman candidate Leonard Fournette as well as impressive sophomore Derrius Guice in the backfield LSU has managed just 28 points per game though both look likely to clear 1,000 rushing yards this season.


Quarterback play has been an issue as junior Brandon Harris was benched early in the season and Purdue-transfer Danny Etling has marginal numbers with just seven touchdowns and a 58 percent completion rate.


The defense has elite numbers allowing just over 14 points per game this season and the four losses for LSU came while allowing 16, 18, 10, and 16 points as the defense led by Dave Aranda in his first season in Baton Rouge has done the job.


Aranda’s future is an interesting case as well as he was a prized hire after great success at Wisconsin and he is just 40-years-old. This week he’ll be working without linebacker Kendell Beckwith who is a Butkus Award finalist.


An injury can be blamed for yet another November slide for Texas A&M after the Aggies started the season 6-0 and still were ranked in the College Football Playoff top four at 7-1 with the lone loss to Alabama. Ultimately early season wins over UCLA, Auburn, Arkansas, and Tennessee proved to be less meaningful than they looked at the time but losing quarterback Trevor Knight early in the Mississippi State game changed the potential of the offense dramatically.


Back-up Joe Hubenak has some experience and he has actually posted better numbers than Knight had in the passing game but Knight rushed for nearly 600 yards on 6.6 yards per carry and his mobility was the key to the offense for the Aggies.


Texas A&M scored 28 points vs. Mississippi State and Mississippi but against those defenses bigger production was needed and last week against Texas San Antonio the limitations of the offense were on display with just 23 points and just over 400 yards in a matchup the Aggies should have dominated. Less success on offense has impacted the defense as well as the Aggies will wrap up another good but not great season that once again teased with a hot start to the season.


At 8-3, a win over LSU for the first time since the Aggies joined the SEC would be a nice stamp on a still solid season after topping out at eight wins the past two seasons. Texas A&M will still get a reasonably attractive bowl bid in either scenario and this might be a good opportunity given the uncertainty for LSU while getting the short week holiday game at home.


Those disappointed in another November collapse for the Aggies know that should know that Kevin Sumlin’s contract is fully guaranteed for the next three seasons. Sumlin does have a buyout on his end but while he was a rising star in the coaching ranks a few years ago the relative mediocrity in recent seasons coupled with the high profile transfers out of the program leave him as much less of a candidate to be poached from another program.


Sumlin has gone 3-3 or worse in the second halves of now each of the past four seasons but he has won at least eight games in all five seasons in College Station after taking over a program that hit that mark once in the five years prior to his arrival.


In last season’s game Texas A&M led 7-6 at the half but Guice as a freshman had the big play of the game with a 50-yard touchdown run halfway through the third quarter while also turning in a 75-yard kickoff return. LSU had a solid production edge but missed three field goals while the Aggies also missed a field goal kick and had three turnovers. Harris completed only a third of his passes while Texas A&M completed less than 50 percent of its passes as neither offense had a strong showing.


Historical Trends:


-- Before becoming division rivals these teams met in the Cotton Bowl after the 2010 season and counting that game LSU is on a 5-0 S/U and ATS run in this matchup.


-- Both wins in College Station were tight with a 24-19 win in 2012 and a 23-17 win in 2014, slipping just past the road favorite spread in both instances.


-- Since 2005 when Miles took over LSU is 19-14-1 ATS as a road favorite including going 12-5-1 with a road favorite spread of less than 10.


-- Texas A&M is notorious for its home field edge but the recent numbers don’t support Kyle Field as being that tough of a venue for visitors.


-- Under Sumlin,Texas A&M has 10 S/U home losses while going 13-19 ATS since he took over in 2012.


-- The past three seasons Texas A&M is 5-13 ATS at home and under Sumlin the Aggies are just 1-4 ATS as a home underdog with no outright upsets.

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Re: NCAA Footba Betting Info 11/24/

Preview: LSU Tigers (6-4) at Texas A&M Aggies (8-3)


Date: November 24, 2016 7:30 PM EDT


No title, but plenty of other matters will be on the line when No. 22 Texas A&M hosts No. 25 LSU to top off Thanksgiving night - including the status of the two coaches.


Kickoff at Kyle Field in College Station is 7:30 p.m. ET Thursday with ESPN handling the telecast.


The visiting Tigers (6-4, 4-3 SEC) will be playing to enhance the chances of interim coach Ed Orgeron earning permanent status with the program. LSU's regular season was cut short by a game because of the cancellation of a non-conference contest with South Alabama to accommodate a rescheduled meeting with Florida.


Though always considered a long-shot to be named full-time, Orgeron's chances began to improve when the team responded well after he took over for Les Miles, who was fired after a 2-2 start. The Tigers rolled to three easy victories, were in a scoreless tie with No. 1 Alabama after three quarters and lost just 10-0, then bounced back a week later to rout Arkansas 38-10.


But the mistake-laden 16-10 loss to a Florida team that was missing six injured starters derailed whatever momentum Orgeron had gained in his quest to keep the job.


"It's been fantastic," said Orgeron, a native of Larose, La., who is 4-2 in his interim stint. "What a ride. The head coach at LSU being from Louisiana, the way the people have reacted, the way the players reacted. We've played very well in most games. It's been fun. It's been fun around to be the staff and fun to see our players grow.


"It's just been an exciting challenge. I've grown as a head coach like I try to grow every day."


A decision on the new coach likely will come in a matter of days after this game.


A&M coach Kevin Sumlin's job may not be in immediate jeopardy, but a loss to the Tigers could start up the grumbling.


The Aggies (8-3, 4-3 SEC) are seeking a ninth win that would give them a shot at 10 victories with a bowl win. They haven't been in double digits in wins since going 11-2 in Sumlin's first season in 2012, which also is the last year they finished over .500 in SEC play.


If the Aggies lose, however, it would be a sixth straight loss to the Tigers, who have won all four meetings since the Aggies joined the SEC, and continue what has been a November slump for Sumlin's teams. The Aggies are 11-8 for the month under Sumlin overall but only 7-8 over the last four seasons.


Although the Aggies have consistently stumbled on the brink of competing for the SEC West title, Sumlin's argument is that they have at least made themselves relevant in the discussion.


Texas A&M went 26-25 in its last four seasons in the Big 12. Since joining the SEC, the Aggies are 44-19 under Sumlin.


"For us to be where we want to be, we do need to take that next step and play for championships and be involved in that conversation consistently," Sumlin said. "Where we are right now is a team that has made some strides since coming into this league."


Both LSU and A&M have injury issues.


Linebacker Kendall Beckwith, the Tigers' leading tackler with 91 stops, is out with a knee injury, and running back Leonard Fournette is still hobbled by an ankle problem.


Derrius Guice, who is the team's leading rusher with 964 yard but had a couple of key mistakes late against Florida -- fumbling inside the Gators' 10-yard line in the second quarter and running the wrong way on the final play of the game at Florida's 1-yard line, would replace Fournette. Donnie Alexander (36 tackles and an interception) likely will start for Beckwith.


For the Aggies. junior Jake Hubenak, who took over for the injured Trevor Knight, injured his shoulder in the loss to Ole Miss but quarterbacked the win over Texas-San Antonio.


"He's day-to-day working hard every day to get his shoulder back in its usual shape," offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone said. "I was very impressed with how he gritted it out on Saturday."

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Footba Betting Info 11/24/

NCAAF


Thursday’s game


LSU was held to 14 or less points (9.3 pts/game) in its four losses; they scored 23+ points in their six wins, 34+ in 5 of the 6 wins. Texas A&M allowed 29+ points in last four SEC games; they did hold UTSA/New Mexico St to 10 points each lately, but those are non-conference stiffs they scheduled. Aggies lost last three SEC games, are 0-5 vs spread in last five games overall. LSU won its last five games against Aggies (5-0 vs spread) holding A&M to 11.3 pts/game last three years- three of those five wins were by 12+ points. Tigers won 23-17/24-19 in last two visits here. SEC home underdogs are 13-7 against spread this season.

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Re: NCAA Footba Betting Info 11/24/

NCCAF Tech Trends - Week 13
By Bruce Marshall


Thursday, Nov. 24


LSU at TEXAS A&M... LSU has won and covered all four vs. A&M since Ags entered SEC in 2012. Orgeron 4-2 SU and vs. line with Tigers. Ags 0-6-1 vs. line last seven TY.


LSU, based on team and series trends.