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**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:12 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

Opening Line Report - Week 12
By Marcus DiNitto

Every college football season seems to have one, and this past Saturday was THAT Saturday. You know, the one where multiple national championship contenders lose and the rankings are thrown into chaos?

No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Washington all lost, and while we have to wait until Tuesday to see how the playoff selection committee reacts, Las Vegas Bookmakers have already updated their futures odds.

Key to the Bookmakers’ numbers but not necessarily the committee’s rankings is anticipating what is about to happen. In other words, the guys running the sports books have to look at what’s remaining on each team’s schedule and guess who’ll be left standing.

"It’s to the point now where you base it on who’s going to get there, who’s got a chance to get there," said Ed Salmons, manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Alabama, obviously, tops the Westgate’s college football futures board at the odds-on price of 4/5. Next is Ohio State at 2/1, and Salmons sees a potentially weird situation for the Buckeyes: it’s possible for them to benefit from being shut out of their conference championship game.

"Ohio State’s in a unique position where if Penn State wins their last two games and Ohio State beats Michigan, Ohio State’s a lock to be in the final four and not even have to play in the Big Ten Championship game, which is really screwy," Salmons said. "That’s what’s wrong with the system. You can’t have this happen."

Salmons raised the Wolverines’ odds to 15/1 after their loss, as their road to a national title now looks extremely difficult.

"Michigan losing (Saturday) eliminates any chance of them getting in with a loss to Ohio State," he said. "Before they had a chance; now that’s gone. Now Michigan has to win at Ohio State and then win two games in the playoffs. If they had won (Saturday), they could make the case that they deserved to go with one loss to Ohio State, but that’s gone now."

Before we get into our weekly discussion of the upcoming slate of games, let’s take a look at the updated futures prices at Salmons’ shop:

Odds to win 2016-17 College Football Playoff – per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Alabama 4/5
Ohio State 2/1
Louisville 6/1
Clemson 12/1
Michigan 15/1
Wisconsin 15/1
Oklahoma 20/1
Washington 20/1
Penn State 50/1
Washington State 50/1
West Virginia 50/1
Oklahoma State 60/1
Florida 80/1
Utah 80/1
Colorado 80/1
Nebraska 500/1
Boise State 1000/1
Houston 1000/1
Western Michigan 2000/1
San Diego State 9999/1
South Florida 9999/1
Navy 9999/1
(Odds Subject to Change - Updated 11.14.16)

Louisville at Houston (no line), Thursday

As of Monday, no sports book had this game up because of the uncertain status of Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. It would be a shame if Ward can’t play – despite the Cougars having two losses, if he can go, this one could be a doozy.

John Avello, vice president of race and sports and the Wynn, expects a total in the mid-70s if Ward starts.

As for a point-spread, Louisville would be favored by "a couple of touchdowns" against a full-strength Houston team, and if Ward does not play, "you’re probably looking at closer to three touchdowns," Avello said.

"Is he worth three touchdowns in reality? No. But he is to that team, because I don’t know where their offense is going to come from without him," Avello said.

Oklahoma (-3) at West Virginia

Oklahoma opened -2.5 at the Wynn on Sunday and was laid up to -3 on Monday for its game against West Virginia that has huge implications on the Big 12 championship.

While CG Technology was dealing the Sooners -4.5 on Sunday but moved with the rest of the market to a field goal, Avello envisions the spread increasing as the week progresses.

"There may still be Oklahoma money coming," he said.

West Virginia is 11-1 straight up at home over the last two seasons, but Oklahoma has beaten the Mountaineers four straight years, last year by 20 points and in 2014 by 12.

The Sooners match up well with West Virginia, according to Salmons.

"It’s a game Oklahoma should win because they usually play their best against teams that don’t have great offenses, and West Virginia doesn’t have a great offense," Salmons said. "Oklahoma’s defense is really bad, but against a team like West Virginia, they shouldn’t give up a million points like some of the games they play. I think it’s a game that sets up well for Oklahoma."

Florida at LSU (-14)

This game was originally scheduled for October 8 in Gainesville, but it was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew and eventually rescheduled and moved to Baton Rouge. LSU was about a 1.5-point favorite before the game was called off, and even with the change of venue, this is quite the point spread swing.

In fact, the Wynn opened LSU -11 and was bet up to -14.5.

The reasons for the nearly two-touchdown swing are clear: LSU is playing some of the best football in the nation, while Florida isn’t scaring anybody with its offense (plus, starting Gators QB Luke Del Rio is doubtful).

"That’s not a surprise," Salmons said of the early line move. "Take away the Alabama game, and (LSU is) playing as well as anybody in the country."

He added, "They were tied with Alabama in the fourth quarter. There’s no one (else) in the county that can say that this year. This game is a mismatch at this time, especially with Florida’s offense being just horrendous."

Avello added, "I don’t expect Florida to score a lot, and that’s the reason why the line got driven up. People are thinking Florida may be good for a touchdown at most and LSU may be good for three at home...This figures to be a low-scoring game, especially for Florida. The question is how many can LSU put up."

Indiana at Michigan (-23)

Michigan opened -29 at the Wynn, and a move later Sunday to -26 was contradictory to what we’ve seen in a lot of Michigan games this season. In many cases, bettors can’t wait to lay the points with Jim Harbaugh’s men.

News that Michigan QB Wilton Speight was lost for the season prompted the line to move further downward.

While the Wolverines are coming off their first loss of the season against what Avello believes is an underrated Iowa club, early bettors may be looking for an opportunity to grab a bunch of points with a tough Hoosiers squad.

"It’s not like anybody has blown (Indiana) out," Avello said. "They haven’t had a bad loss all year."

That said, Indiana is just 4-6 ATS.

Clemson (-22) at Wake Forest

Clemson, like Michigan, is a team that just suffered its first loss of the season and saw early action go on its opponent. The Tigers opened -24 at the Wynn and were bet as low as -21.

While Wake is a better-than-expected 6-4 (SU and ATS), doubts persist around Clemson.

"Clemson’s had a lot of close encounters this year," Avello said. "They just had their first loss, but in reality, they could have at least two (more), possibly three (to Louisville, N.C. State, Florida State)."

Buffalo at Western Michigan (-35)

We haven’t written about Western Michigan yet this season, so we’ll drop in a note this week on the 10-0 Broncos.

The Broncos covered the spread in their first five games of the season, but since then are 2-3 ATS. The lesson here is that if you missed the boat on these guys early, now is probably not the time to jump aboard. The betting market has caught on, and the numbers Western Michigan is being asked to lay are reflective of that.

They opened the season as dogs against Northwestern and were single-digit favorites in three of their next four, but their spreads keep getting larger.

"When they became a big favorite, they started having a rougher time (covering spreads)," Avello said. "The prices are too high now."

Early line moves

Here are games that saw the point-spread move two or more points in the favorite’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Ball State vs. Toledo
Opening line: Toledo -18.5
After 23 hours: Toledo -21

Arkansas State vs. Troy
Opening line: Troy -6.5
After 23 hours: Troy -9

San Diego State vs. Wyoming
Opening line: San Diego State -7
After 23 hours: San Diego State -9.5

Florida State vs. Syracuse
Opening line: FSU -19
After 23 hours: FSU -21

Arizona State vs. Washington State
Opening line: Wash State -24
After 23 hours: Wash State -27

Texas vs. Kansas
Opening line: Texas -21.5
After 23 hours: Texas -23.5

Penn State vs Rutgers
Opening line: Penn State -25.5
After 23 hours: Penn State -28

Oregon vs. Utah
Opening line: Utah -11
After 23 hours: Utah -13

Texas State vs. New Mexico State
Opening line: New Mexico State -7
After 23 hours: New Mexico State -9

Here are games that saw the point-spread move two or more points in the underdog’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Indiana vs. Michigan
Opening line: Indiana +29
After 23 hours: Indiana +26

Arizona vs. Oregon State
Opening line: Arizona +8.5
After 23 hours: Arizona +6.5

Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Opening line: Wake +24
After 23 hours: Wake +22

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:13 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 12 college football games
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now:

Illinois (+10) vs. Iowa

This line opened at +11.5 and was quickly bet down to the key number of +10. This is a major flat spot for Iowa as they just won straight-up 14-13 as a +24 point home underdog versus Michigan, and now the Hawkeyes are laying points on the road. Iowa has only won once by more than 7 points on the road this season.

Illinois is coming off a blowout loss at Wisconsin last week, but the Illini played well in their previous home game, winning outright 31-27 versus Michigan State as a +9.5 point home dog. Illinois is averaging 27.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play at home this year. The Illini also have a solid rushing attack that averages 5.2 yards per carry in all games this season (versus opponents that allow just 4.7 ypr).

Spread to wait on:

Arizona State (+26.5) at Washington

This line opened at +25 and was quickly bet higher to +26.5. The public will likely play the big favorite, so wait for the possibility of the key numbers of +27 or +28 appearing. Many will expect Washington to bounce back after their first loss of the season, but historically teams that lose their first game this late in the season suffer a letdown. The Huskies might have eliminated themselves from the national playoff picture with their 26-13 home loss versus USC last weekend.

Arizona State has dominated this series, going a perfect 10-0 SU/ATS versus Washington since 2002, and the Sun Devils are catching the Huskies at a good time this week. Despite just a 2-5 SU conference record this season, Arizona State has not lost any game by more than 24 points.

Total to watch:

Oregon at Utah (70.5)

Oregon is just 3-7 SU this season and a terrible 1-8 ATS, but they are 7-3 to the Over. The Ducks have a solid offense that is averaging 37.1 points per game on 6.6 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 28.9 ppg and 5.9 yppl). However, Oregon's defense has been horrendous, allowing 43.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 32.9 ppg and 5.8 yppl).

Utah enters this game on a 3-0 Over run, scoring 49 points or more in two of their past three games. Overall, the Utes are averaging 31.2 points per game (versus opponents that allow just 30.8 ppg). Utah should have continued offensive success against an Oregon defense that has allowed 45.7 points per game on the road this season. The Over is a perfect 3-0 the past three years in this head-to-head series with an average of 75 total points scored per game.

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:14 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

ACC Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams

2016 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 4-6 1-6 3-6-1 4-6
Clemson 9-1 6-1 5-5 4-6
Duke 4-6 1-5 7-3 2-8
Florida State 7-3 4-3 5-4 5-4
Georgia Tech 6-4 3-4 4-4-1 5-3-1
Louisville 9-1 7-1 5-4-1 7-3
Miami (Fla.) 6-4 3-3 6-4 5-5
North Carolina 7-3 5-2 6-4 4-6
North Carolina State 5-5 2-4 7-3 4-5-1
Pittsburgh 6-4 3-3 4-6 9-1
Syracuse 4-6 2-4 4-6 2-8
Virginia 2-8 1-5 4-5-1 3-6-1
Virginia Tech 7-3 5-2 4-6 5-5
Wake Forest 6-4 3-3 6-4 4-6

Louisville at Houston (Thurs. - ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Louisville, newly ranked No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings, steps out of conference to face Houston. Remember earlier in the season many figured this would be a huge game for Louisville, as Houston was expected to be ranked and perhaps unbeaten by this point? Well, Houston failed to live up to their end of the bargain with losses at Navy and at SMU. The Cougars have failed to cover in five straight entering this contest, and this game could get away from them if they play like they did in their past two wins against UCF and Tulane. Louisville might have been caught looking ahead last week against Wake Forest, as they looked very sluggish until the fourth quarter when they came alive and outscored Wake 34-0 to win 44-12. But the score is certainly not indicative of how close the game was for about 45-50 minutes. Louisville is 1-2-1 ATS in their past four road outings, and 2-4 ATS in their past six games overall.

Virginia at Georgia Tech (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Virginia has eight losses and they're already thinking about next season. Meanwhille, the Ramblin' Wreck tossed a monkey wrench into the Coastal Division standings with an upset of Virginia Tech last weekend, and they become bowl eligible as a result. Now, they look to improve their bowl situation with a win over a team they are favored to beat by 10 1/2 as of Wednesday morning. The Cavaliers are 6-1-2 ATS in their past nine road games dating back to last season. More importantly, though, and more recently, they're 1-4 ATS in their past five conference battles, 1-4 ATS in their past five overall and 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning overall mark. Something's gotta give, as the Yellow Jackets are 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home and 3-11-1 ATS in their past 15 conference tilts while going 1-4 ATS in their past five aginst teams with a losing overall mark. The favorite is 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 meetings in this series, the home team is 16-4-1 ATS in the past 21 battles and the Cavs are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 trips to Bobby Dodd Stadium in the ATL.

Miami-Florida at North Carolina State (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m. ET)
The Hurricanes look to continue their rebound, taking on a Jekyll and Hyde N.C. State team in Raleigh. The Hurricanes started out 4-0 SU/ATS, went 0-4 SU/ATS in their next four, and now they have won and covered their past two. That includes an impressive 51-28 win against Pittsburgh, the team that knocked Clemson from the ranks of the unbeaten last week. Miami has the tools to be a very dangerous team on any given week, but consistency has been key, and complacency when things do not go their way. N.C. State is just one win away from bowl eligibility after a win at Syracuse last weekend, stopping a three-game losing streak which included a loss to a bad Boston College team. Yet, this is also a Wolfpack team which just missed at Clemson, and was sunk late by Florida State two weeks ago. N.C. State can also play with most teams in the nation on any day, but they can be awfully bad some weeks, too. The Wolfpack enter 5-1 ATS in their past six at home, while the 'under' is 5-1 over their past six games.

Connecticut at Boston College (ACC Network, 1:00 p.m.)
Believe it or not, Boston College can still become bowl eligible, and they're favored by a touchdown this weekend in their quest for a fifth victory. UConn has already waved bye-bye to bowl eligibility and all of the vital extra practices that come with that postseason game. Connecticut has been terrible in their past 27 non-conference games, going 6-18-3 ATS, and they're 6-17-3 AST in their past 26 against teams with a losing record and 6-19-1 ATS in their past 26 on the road. The Huskies are also 4-17 ATS in their past 21 on fieldturf. B.C. has covered just one of their past five overall, and they're 1-8-2 ATS in their past 11 at home. However, they are an impressive 4-1-1 ATS in their past six non-conference battles.

Duke at Pittsburgh (ACC Network, 3:00 p.m.)
Duke picked up a huge win last week against North Carolina, securing the Victory Bell trophy from their rivals from Chapel Hill. Duke still has a lot of work to do if they want to become bowl eligible, and they face a big hurdle in Pittsburgh against a Panthers team which upended Clemson last week. Duke heads into this game 4-0 ATS in their past four ACC games, and 5-0 ATS in their past five overall. They're also 4-1 ATS in their past five away from Wallace Wade Stadium. Meanwhile, Pitt, an eight-point favorite, is just 5-16 ATS in their past 21 at home and 0-5 ATS in their past five home games against a team with a losing road record. Pitt steamrolled Duke 31-13 in Durham last season, lost a 51-48 2 OT thriller in the Steel City in 2014 and lost 58-55 at home Sept. 21, 2013. These teams are very familiar with each other, but Pitt is trending a bit more upward this season

Florida State at Syracuse (ABC or ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
Florida State heads to the Carrier Dome looking for their eighth victory of the season. The Seminoles have bounced back with two wins at N.C. State and at home against Boston College after their narrow loss to Clemson Oct. 29. They'll get the best from the Orange, who need to win their final two games to become bowl eligible. Syracuse is 4-0 ATS in their past four at home against teams with a winning road record. Florida State is 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight road outings against a team with a losing home record, however, and 5-1 ATS in their past six games in the month of November.

Virginia Tech at Notre Dame (NBC, 3:30 p.m.)
The Hokies step out of conference after a frustrating and costly loss to Georgia Tech last weekend. Meanwhile, Notre Dame got well by humping up on Army in San Antonio last weekend by a 44-6 count. The Irish kept their slim bowl hopes alive with the win. The Irish have shown flashes of brilliance on offense this season, posting 27 or more points in each of their past three, and eight of their 10 games this season. However, they're 2-5 ATS in their past seven non-conference games. They are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games against a team with a winning road record, though. Va. Tech is a dismal 1-4 ATS in their past five road outings, 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts and 0-7 ATS in their past seven on the road against a team with a losing home record. The Irish are favored by just one point as of Wednesday morning. They are just 1-3 SU in their past four games in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus, and 1-3 ATS in those four true home games.

The Citadel at North Carolina (ACC Network, 3:30 p.m.)
North Carolina steps out of conference, and out of FBS, to take on a good team from The Citadel which is 10-0 overall and 8-0 in the Southern Conference. The Bulldogs have run the football well this season, and that is one area the Tar Heels have had difficulty this season. UNC struggled defensively against James Madison, another run-heavy FCS team, earlier in the season. While UNC is not expected to lose, they might struggle to cover a big number, too. There is no line on the game currently, but check back Saturday AM.

Clemson at Wake Forest (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)
Clemson suffered its first loss of the season last weekend, losing 43-42 to unranked Pittsburgh in Death Valley. But as luck has it, Michigan and Washington also suffered setbacks, and the loss wasn't as costly to the Tigers. Clemson is still ranked No. 4 in the CFP, but cannot afford any additional slip ups. Wake Forest has been one of the biggest surprises in the ACC, already bowl eligible at 6-4. They are more than a three-touchdown underdog at home despite the fact Clemson is a dismal 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight trips to Winston-Salem. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings at Wake, and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall in this series.

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:14 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

Big 12 Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams

2016 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 6-3 3-3 2-7 2-7
Iowa State 2-8 1-6 6-4 6-4
Kansas 1-9 0-7 4-6 4-6
Kansas State 5-4 3-3 3-6 4-5
Oklahoma 8-2 7-0 4-6 5-5
Oklahoma State 8-2 6-1 6-4 7-3
Texas 5-5 3-4 6-4 4-6
Texas Christian 5-4 3-3 2-7 5-4
Texas Tech 4-6 2-5 7-3 5-5
West Virginia 8-1 5-1 4-5 3-6

Kansas State at Baylor (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
K-State heads down to Baylor looking for that all-important sixth victory and bowl eligibility, and they'll face a team which just lost its starting quarterback. QB Seth Russell suffered a gruesome left ankle fracture which required season-ending surgery, so true freshman Zach Smith will take the reins of the offense. The Bears are a 2 1/2-point underdog as of Wednesday morning, and Smith is a bit of an unknown entering the game. He misfired on nine of his 15 attempts last week, but posted 144 yards and a touchdown, too. K-State is 1-4 ATS in their past five road games and 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning overall record. While Baylor is 29-12 ATS in their past 41 home games, they have covered just once in the past five league games with Russell, and they're 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six and the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings overall.

Oklahoma State at Texas Christian (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m.)
TCU hosts OK State looking to become bowl eligible in mid-November. In recent seasons, TCU has not only been eligible for a bowl by now, they have been in the playoff conversation. OK State already has eight victories, and they're looking to improve their bowl possibility. They enter as a four-point underdog as of Wednesday morning. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning overall record, while the Horned Frogs are 1-5 ATS in their past six league games and 0-5 ATS in their past five in Fort Worth.

Texas Tech at Iowa State (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Texas Tech looks to keep its bowl hopes alive in Ames, and it won't be easy despite Iowa State's 2-8 overall record. The Cyclones have been a tough out this season, even for good teams, going 4-0 ATS in their past four home games and 6-2 ATS in their past eight overall. They're also 5-2 ATS in their past seven Big 12 outings. The Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a losing overall record, 5-1 ATS in their past six on the road and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 league games. In this series the road team has covered four of the past five. The Red Raiders enter the week as a field goal favorite, and that line is holding steady as of Wednesday morning.

Texas at Kansas (ABC or ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Longhorns look for bowl eligibility, and they find it in Lawrence. Texas is up to a 23 1/2-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. The Longhorns have had difficult on the road in recent seasons, going 3-7 ATS in their past 10 away from Austin. The Jayhawks are winless against FBS teams this season, and they're just 7-17 ATS in their past 24 overall, 5-13 ATS in their past 18 league games and 3-10 ATS in their past 13 against Texas. The 'under' has cashed in each of the past four meetings in Lawrence, and four of the past five meetings overall in this series. The under is also 23-9 in the past 32 league games for Texas.

Oklahoma at West Virginia (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown will be rocking Saturday night when Oklahoma pays a visit in what is shaping up as a de facto conference championship game. Oklahoma enters the game with two losses and no hopes of the four-team playoff, but they are unbeaten inside the Big 12. The road hasn't been kida to Oklahoma, however, at least in terms of ATS. They have covered just one of their past five on the road. The Mountaineers are 4-11 ATS in their past 15 against teams with a winning overall record, though, and 6-20 ATS in their past 26 at home against teams with a winning road mark.While trends lately point to the under, the over is 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series. The under is an impressive 13-4 in the past 17 at home for West Virginia, and 19-7 in their past 26 conference tilts. The over is 13-6-1 in Oklahoma's past 20 road outings, but 4-1 in their past five overall and 4-1 in their past five league outings.

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:15 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

Big Ten Report - Week 12
By ASA

2016 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 3-7 2-5 5-5 5-5
Indiana 5-5 3-4 4-6 6-6
Iowa 6-4 4-3 4-6 4-6
Maryland 5-5 2-5 3-7 4-6
Michigan 9-1 6-1 5-5 7-3
Michigan State 3-7 1-6 3-7 4-6
Minnesota 7-3 4-3 3-5-2 5-5
Nebraska 8-2 5-2 5-3-2 2-8
Northwestern 5-5 4-3 6-4 3-7
Ohio State 9-1 6-1 6-4 5-5
Penn State 8-2 6-1 6-3-1 8-2
Purdue 3-7 1-6 4-6 8-2
Rutgers 2-8 0-7 4-6 6-4
Wisconsin 8-2 5-2 8-2 3-7

Ohio State (-21.5) at Michigan State – (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Michigan State – Who would have guessed that MSU would pick up their FIRST Big Ten win on November 12th? Not us. Sparty moved to 1-6 in Big Ten play with a 49-0 whitewashing of Rutgers. The Spartan defense looks like they might be kicking it up a notch at the end of the season. We’ve grown accustomed to good defense when discussing the Green & White and last week they held Rutgers scoreless on just 149 total yards. A week earlier they stopped Illinois for 305 yards but MSU lost that. Those two games are a huge improvement after they gave up an average of 425 YPG over their first five Big Ten games.

The Scarlet Knights had 13 offensive possessions in the game and 12 of those went for 18 yards or less. They allowed Rutgers to cross midfield only twice the entire game. Star DL McDowell was injured and sat out the game forcing head coach Mark Dantonio to start two freshman defensive lineman for the first time in their careers. Offensively much maligned senior QB Tyler O’Connor had only 10 completions but 3 of those were for TD’s all in the first half. He didn’t need to complete many passes as the Spartans dominated the ground game with 277 yards, their season high, on 50 carries.

Ohio State – The Buckeyes won their second consecutive game by the exact same score of 62-3. Two weeks ago they whipped Nebraska by that margin and last Saturday Maryland was on the receiving end. After going 3 straight games without reaching 30 points in regulation (Wisconsin, Penn State, & Northwestern) they have exploded for 124 points in the last two games on almost 1,100 total yards. Over that two game span OSU is +47 in first downs (what?) and +791 in total yardage. Dominating to say the least. QB J.T. Barrett has been fantastic in the last two games completing 44 of his 65 pass attempts for 543 yards and 6 TD’s (no interceptions).

Last year in a home loss to Michigan State, Barrett had one of the worst games in his career completing just 9 passes for only 46 yards. The Buckeyes were held to just 132 total yards in last year’s 17-14 loss. Interestingly, Ohio State was a 14.5 point favorite at home last year and now they are -21.5 on the road this season. Despite the disparity in the two teams records, the Buckeyes will be motivated here due to last year’s results. We’ve been told many of the OSU players have been waiting patiently for this rematch.

Last Year - Michigan State (+14.5) upset the Buckeyes on the road last year 17-14 with backup QB Tyler O’Connor at the helm. That won catapulted MSU to the Big Ten Championship and eventually College Football’s Final 4.

Inside the Numbers - The road team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings in this Big Ten series. The underdog has covered 6 of the last 7. The dog has also claimed outright wins in each of the last 5 meetings in this match up. This is just the third time that MSU has been a home dog of more than 20 points since the 1980 season. They are 2-0 ATS in that spot including a cover in a 9-point loss at home vs Michigan this season as a 24 point underdog.

Iowa (-10) at Illinois – (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Illinois – The Illini should get a boost offensively this week with starting QB Wes Lunt ready to go. His last start was back on October 8th at Purdue. Lunt was injured in the 2nd quarter of that game and was inserted in the 2nd half last week for his first game action in over 30 days. He came in for Jeff George Jr who continues to struggle. George threw 4 interceptions in the first half last week at Wisconsin, a 48-3 loss. He led Illinois on 7 offensive possessions in the first half turning the ball over in 4 of them. He ended the game with one more completion (5) than interception (4).

Lunt took over in the 2nd half and while he didn’t really do anything (2 for 8 passing) he did get some reps which should help prepare him for this week. He didn’t have a chance to do much as Illinois ran only 15 plays in the entire 2nd half. That’s because Wisconsin dominated the ball rushing for 363 yards on 64 attempts and held a 42:00 to 18:00 time of possession edge. It was the second straight game the Illini defense was on the field for more than 40:00 minutes and they were gassed late in the Wisconsin game. That definitely should have a negative effect this week if Iowa is able to control the ground game.

Iowa – In what has been a very disappointing year for Iowa, the Hawkeyes were able to create a highlight moment last week in a season devoid of them. They were just 1-3 at home coming into last week’s game facing a Michigan team that was undefeated and favored by 20+ points. The last time Iowa was a home underdog of that magnitude was back in 1999. They pulled the upset kicking a field goal as time expired to win 14-13 moving them to 6-4 which makes them bowl eligible. It was their third straight win over Michigan in Iowa City. The defense was the big surprise. We knew they would struggle on offense against a great Wolverine defense. Iowa had just 230 yards of total offense and after kicking a FG on the opening drive of the 2nd half, never crossed midfield again until 1:16 remaining in the game.

The Iowa defense was the big surprise. After allowing 600 yards and 41 points a week earlier at PSU, the Hawkeye defense stifled a very good Michigan offense holding them to 13 points and just 201 total yards. Coming into the game they had allowed each of their previous three opponents to reach at least 423 yards with two of them topping 500. It was impossible to foresee this defense slowing down a Michigan offense that was averaging 521 YPG in conference play. Now they have to avoid the proverbial “letdown” traveling to Illinois coming off their big Michigan win with a home finale vs Nebraska on deck.

Last Year - Iowa topped Illinois 29-20 at home last season. They failed to cover the 10.5 point spread however. They Hawkeyes are favored by basically the same number at Illinois this season.

Inside the Numbers - Iowa has won 10 of the last 13 in this series. This is just the third time since 1980 that Iowa has been a double digit favorite at Illinois (1-2 ATS). This has been a low scoring series as of late. Since 2000 these two have met 9 times and the average combined score in those game has been 39 points with the highest output during that stretch being 51.

Maryland at Nebraska (-14.5) – (ESPNNews, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Nebraska – The Huskers bounced back with a nice 24-17 win over Minnesota after back to back road losses at Wisconsin and at Ohio State. QB Tommy Armstrong didn’t practice the entire week and finally cleared concussion protocol on the morning of the game so he was able to start and played well with 217 yards passing, 61 yards rushing, and 3 TD’s. With the game tied at 17 in the 4th quarter, Armstrong led Nebraska on a 91 yard go-ahead TD drive to put them up 7. With Minnesota driving late for a potential tying TD, the Nebraska defense made a key interception inside the 5-yard line for the game clincher. The defense played very well shutting down Minnesota’s running game to just 2.5 YPC on 34 attempts. After scoring 17 in the opening 30 minutes, the Husker defense held Minnesota scoreless in the 2nd half and held the Gophers to under 100 yards after the break.

Back to Armstrong…Different week, different ailing body parts for Armstrong who is again questionable this week after injuring his hamstring AND ankle in last week’s game. Word is he was limping very badly early in the week and back up QB Ryker Fyfe is getting the first team snaps. However, it’s Senior Day and Armstrong’s last home game so if he can find a way to play on Saturday he will. If Nebraska wins out and Wisconsin loses one of their final two games, the Huskers will be in the Big 10 Championship game so still a lot for them to play for.

Maryland – What once looked like a promising season for Maryland and new head coach DJ Durkin has gone south in a hurry. Coming into Big Ten play, the Terps were only three wins away from bowl eligibility and the way they were playing that looked like a lock. After last week’s embarrassing home performance vs Ohio State, a 62-3 loss, Maryland needs to win one of their final two games to get to six wins. The Terps are coming of back to back huge losses to Michigan & Ohio State in which they were outscored by a combined 121-6 and outgained by a combined 697 yards! They got behind quickly in each of those games trailing Michigan 35-0 at half and Ohio State 45-3 at the break.

In those two losses, the Terp defense allowed Michigan & Ohio State to score TD’s on 11 of their 14 combined first half drives. Maryland heads into this Saturday’s game at Nebraska as a bruised and battered squad. Durkin suspended three players just before kickoff last week due to a violation of the athlete code of conduct. That included RB Lorenzo Harrison who had rushed for over 600 yards on the season. Then QB Perry Hills was injured (shoulder) on the 2nd series of the game and didn’t return. It was the fourth time this season Hills has been knocked out of a game due to injury. He may not play this week. Durkin will see what his team is made of as they try and rebound from their two worst losses they’ve ever had in Big Ten play coming in back to back weeks.

Last Year - These two have not met since Maryland joined the Big Ten a few years ago.

Inside the Numbers - The Terps have covered 8 straight games following a loss at home by 10 poitns or more. Maryland is 0-3 ATS their last 3 games. The last time the Terps failed to cover four games in a row was back in 2011. Nebraska has lost and failed to cover each of their last 3 home finales.

Wisconsin (-27.5) at Purdue – (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Purdue – The Boilers officially eliminated themselves from bowl contention last Saturday with a 45-17 loss at home to Northwestern. That dropped Purdue to 3-7 on the year. PU jumped out to a quick 10-0 lead at home last week but then were outscored 45-7 the rest of the way. It continued a Purdue trend which we brought up in last week’s edition. They continue to play teams tight in the 1st half only to be demolished in the 2nd half. They trailed NW just 14-10 at half last week. In the last four games, Purdue has outscored their opponents 69-64 in the 1st half and they’ve gone on to lose the 2nd half of those four games by a combined score of 109-17!

The defense continues to be absolutely shredded on a weekly basis. They rank dead last in the Big Ten (conference games only) in total defense allowing 500 YPG and in scoring defense giving up 44 PPG. They have allowed at least 30 points in every Big Ten game except one and they’ve given up at least 44 points in 5 of their 7 conference tilts. The Boilers played last week without their two best defenders – Jake Repogle and Ja’Whaun Bentley – and they may not be ready again this week. It was Purdue’s 15th consecutive loss in the month of November.

Wisconsin – We keep waiting for this Wisconsin team to have a “letdown” type game and they just continue to play well. Last Saturday was a perfect scenario for potential flat game for the Badgers as they were hosting an overmatched Illinois team after playing a brutal stretch of games vs Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern. All the Badgers did was come out and dominate 48-3 rushing for 363 yards while holding the Illini to 201 total yards. They were averaging just 18 PPG over their previous five games, albeit vs much better defenses, before busting out for almost 50 points last week.

Head coach Paul Chryst continued his “musical QB’s” playing both Hornibrook and Houston for the 5th straight game although it really didn’t matter who lined up under center in this one. The QB’s combined to attempt just 13 passes but handed the ball off 64 times. After keeping Illinois out of the endzone the Badgers have given up just 8 TD’s in their 7 Big Ten games. If you take out their games vs Michigan and Ohio State they have allowed only 3 TD’s vs their other five conference opponents.

Last Year - Wisconsin beat Purdue last year 24-7 in Madison. The Badgers had 418 total yards to just 191 for the Boilermakers.

Inside the Numbers - Wisconsin has beaten Purdue 10 straight times (9-1 ATS in those games). This spread sits at Wisky -27.5 which is the highest number in any of the last 10 years. The closest margin of victory for Wisconsin vs Purdue over the last 8 years was last year when the Badgers won by “just” 17. Purdue has won only 3 of their last 24 Big Ten home games.

Indiana at Michigan (-23.5) – (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Michigan – This line opened in the range of -26 all the way up to -28 at some spots. It dropped to -23.5 at most spots after the announcement that Michigan QB Wilton Speight would most likely be out for at least the remainder of the regular season due to a collarbone injury. Next in line for the Wolverines looks to be junior John O’Korn who transferred from Houston after losing his starting job to Greg Ward. He has appeared in eight games and gone 13 of 18 for 114 yards and 2 touchdowns as the team's primary backup quarterback.

As you are now well aware, Michigan was beaten at Iowa 14-13 last week as a 20 point favorite. A struggling Hawkeye defense held the Wolverines a full 319 yards below their season average! Michigan came into the game thinking they could run all over an Iowa defense that allowed 359 yards on the ground a week earlier at PSU. That wasn’t the case last Saturday as Michigan rushed for only 98 yards on just 2.8 YPC. The defense again played well enough to win holding Iowa to only 230 yards on 3.9 YPP. Even with the loss, Michigan came out at #3 in this week’s College FB poll which pretty much indicates if they win out, including the Big Ten Championship game, they are basically a shoe in for the College Football Playoff.

Indiana – Indiana is still battling to get to that 6th win for bowl eligibility and they have to win one of their last two games to do it. Last week they lost at home to a red hot Penn State team 45-31. It was a disastrous start for IU who punted on their first two possessions and then fumbled on three of their next four. Even with that the game was tied at 14 at halftime. It could be argued that IU actually outplayed Penn State as the Hoosiers had more yards, more first downs, and were better on 3rd down (8 of 17). Two keys to the loss were Indiana’s 5 turnovers and the fact their defense allowed a number of big plays - nine plays of 20+ yards.

Not only did those turnovers were lead to PSU points (14 points off turnovers) but the ones that didn’t came in Lion territory which prevented IU from potentially putting a bigger number on the board. The Hoosiers turned the ball over on the Penn State 24, 39, and 50 yard lines and were shut out on downs at the Nittany Lion 1 yard line. Defensively they held Penn State to just 77 yards rushing on 45 attempts (only 1.7 YPC). That was very impressive vs an offense the rolled up 257 & 359 yards rushing their previous two games. Michigan struggled to get any running game going last week which might be a glimmer of hope for this Indiana team.

Last Year - Last year we saw a lot of offense in this match up. Michigan won at Indiana in OT by a final score of 48-41. Both teams topped 500 yards of total offense.

Inside the Numbers - This series has been about as one sided as they come. Since 1980, Michigan is 27-1 SU in this series (17-11 ATS). Indiana has been an underdog in EVERY ONE of those 28 match ups, including going off as a double digit dog in 22 of those games. The Wolverines are 14-6 ATS (70%) coming off a SU loss dating back to the 2011 season.

Northwestern (-1) at Minnesota – (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Minnesota – After a 24-17 loss at Nebraska last Saturday, the Gophers no longer control their own destiny in the Big Ten West. Wisconsin is now the only team that holds that distinction. The Minnesota offense struggled in the loss tallying only 265 total yards. They jumped out of the gate with 17 first half points but kept off the scoreboard after the break. The Gophs are now 4-3 in the Big Ten and 7-3 overall. A close look at their overall results reveals they don’t have an impressive win but also don’t have a bad loss. Their four conference wins have come against Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, and Illinois who have a combined 5-23 Big Ten record. If you throw out their win against FCS Indiana State, their other two wins came against Colorado State & Oregon State, both one possession games at home.

The fact is, they haven’t beaten a team that currently has a winning record and if you throw in their wins over OSU & CSU, the seven teams they’ve beaten have a combined record of 12-36. It also has to be said that their losses have all been very close with margins of 3 (vs PSU), 7 (vs Iowa), and 7 (vs Nebraska). While their wins aren’t impressive, the Gophers aren’t that far from being unbeaten. This will be Minnesota’s final home game before traveling to Wisconsin the last week of the regular season.

Northwestern – The Cats were in a battle at halftime last week at Purdue leading just 14-10. Going into halftime last week, Northwestern has only scored 21 points over their last 6 quarters combined. They broke out in a big way after halftime against a terrible Purdue defense tallying 31 points in the final 30 minutes. The Wildcat offense scored TD’s on their first four possessions of the 2nd half, kicked a FG on their fifth possessions, and were stopped on downs at the Purdue 1 yard line on their 6th and final possession of after the break. QB Clayton Thorson continued his big season throwing for a career high 352 yards vs the Boilers. This week he faces a Minnesota defense that has allowed more TD passes than any other team in the Big Ten (20) and currently ranks 12th in the league (all games included) allowing 231 YPG passing. Last Saturday’s win moved NW to within one game of bowl eligibility with a 5-5 record. That goal didn’t seem very reasonable early in the season when they lost 3 of their first 4 games including home setbacks to Illinois State and Western Michigan. After traveling to Minnesota this weekend the Cats host Illinois next week to close out the regular season.

Last Year - Northwestern (-4.5) pitched a 27-0 shutout at home last year holding Minnesota to only 173 total yards.

Inside the Numbers - Minnesota is 7-1 ATS their last 8 games following an outright loss. Northwestern was a road favorite last week at Purdue and covered easily. That means since 1980 the Cats are 25-8 SU as a road favorite (20-13 ATS). Throw out their game vs FCS Indiana State and the Gophs are 0-5 ATS at home this year failing to cover those games by a combined 42 points or 8 PPG.

Penn State (-28) at Rutgers – (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Rutgers – Just when it looked like Rutgers might be “sort of” turning the corner, they were destroyed at Michigan State 49-0. The Knights had played two tight games vs Indiana and Minnesota the previous two weeks before the Spartans crushed them to pick up their first Big Ten win. An offense that looked like it was at least getting close to respectable under new starting QB Rescigno was simply terrible last week. Rescigno completed only 6 passes the entire game and the running game was held to just 3 YPC. Rutgers was forced to punt on 9 of their 13 offensive possessions, 2 ended in turnovers, and the other 2 the Knights had the ball as time ran out in the first half and at the end of the game.

They have now lost seven consecutive games and the offense during that stretch has been shutout three times and scored just 7 points twice. The defense hasn’t been much better allowing at least 33 points in 5 of those 7 including giving up 49 or more three times during that span. You can bet that the Rutgers defense, which ranks 124th nationally vs the run, will get a heavy dose of the PSU ground game here after the Nits rushed for only 77 yards last week at Indiana.

Penn State – Well it’s now official, win their final two games vs Rutgers and Michigan State and the Nittany Lions will win at least a share of the Big Ten East title. They will go to the Big Ten Championship game if they win out and Michigan loses at Ohio State to close out the regular season. Michigan made this all possible by losing at Iowa last Saturday. The Penn State offense is on a ridiculous roll right now. If you subtract their game vs Michigan in which they scored just 10 points, Penn State is averaging 40 PPG in their other six Big Ten games. Over the last three games alone they have put up 148 points. The offense has been extremely efficient scoring points on 23 of their last 36 offensive possessions minus drives that ended in a turnover. They’ve now won six games in a row and scored 30 TD’s during that stretch! Fifteen different players have scored TD’s this year for PSU. Now facing a Rutgers defense that has allowed 33 or more points in 5 of the last 6 games, we can expect another big showing from the Penn State offense.

Last Year - Penn State has won both games in this series since Rutgers joined the Big Ten. Two years ago it was a tight 13-10 win on the road and last year an easy 28-3 win in Happy Valley.

Inside the Numbers - PSU has now covered 5 consecutive games covering 4 of those 5 games by at least 20 points! These two teams have met 16 times since 1982 and Penn State has won 15 of those games. All but 3 of those 15 wins came by at least 10 points.

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:15 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

Pac-12 Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams

2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 2-8 0-7 1-9 6-4
Arizona State 5-5 2-5 5-5 6-4
California 4-6 2-5 4-6 7-3
Colorado 8-2 6-1 9-1 4-6
Oregon 3-7 1-6 1-8-1 7-3
Oregon State 2-8 1-6 7-3 5-5
Southern California 7-3 6-2 6-4 2-8
Stanford 7-3 5-3 6-4 3-7
UCLA 4-6 2-5 4-6 4-5-1
Utah 8-2 5-2 6-4 6-4
Washington 9-1 6-1 5-5 8-2
Washington State 8-2 7-0 6-4 6-4

Oregon at Utah (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Oregon is no longer eligible for a bowl, but they still remain a danger for Utah, especially due to their high-octane offense. Oregon has rolled up 32 or more points in seven of the past eight games. Their problem hasn't been on offense, but it's their inability to stop people on defense. Oregon has allowed 35 or more points in eight of their 10 outings, and they're just 1-8-1 ATS overall. For Utah, they have covered three in a row, and six of their past eight. They emasculated Oregon last season 62-20 in Eugene, and they're hoping to do the same this season. Utah is a 12-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. The 'over' cashed in that game for Utah, and the over is 3-0 in their past three and the over is 6-2 in their past eight outings while going 9-1 in Oregon's past 10 league games and 6-1 in their past seven overall.

Washington State at Colorado (FOX, 3:30 p.m.)
Thanks to Washington's loss last week against USC, the Washington State Cougars ascended to the top of the North Division standings. The Cougars still have the Huskies on the schedule in the Apple Cup, their annual rivalry, but they certainly cannot look past the 10th-ranked Buffaloes in Boulder this weekend. Colorado is a 4-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. The Buffaloes are an impressive 9-1 ATS in 10 games this season. Washington State is 9-1 ATS in their past 10 against teams with a winning overall record, and 15-5 ATS in 20 games overall dating back to last season. They're also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 away from the Palouse. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six battles.

Stanford at California (Pac-12 Network, 5:30 p.m. ET)
It's time for the 118th installment of the 'Big Game', and everyone remembers in 1982 when the Stanford band came on the field during 'The Play'. That won't be a problem in Berkeley this season, as the Stanford band has had a travel ban all season and they are not allowed to travel across the bay for this rivalry game. Stanford's offense will be there, however, and they got well last week at Oregon in a 52-27 victory. After struggling through mid-October, the Cardinal have come alive over the past three games averaging 37.3 points per game (PPG). The 'over' for Stanford last week was their first since Oct. 8, a span of five games. Cal is on a three-game slide and they need to win this week and never week against UCLA to qualify for a bowl game. Cal is 1-4 ATS in their past five games, but they are 3-1 ATS in four home games.

Arizona State at Washington (FOX, 7:30 p.m.)
The Huskies look to bounce back after last weekend's setback against USC, and Washington is expected to recover since they're installed as 26 1/2-point favorites as of Wednesday morning. AZ State is on quite the slide, opening the season 5-1 SU, but they have dropped four in a row and need a win this week or next week at rival Arizona to become bowl eligible. The Sun Devils are 1-3 ATS in their past four games, and 0-4 ATS in four road games this season. Washington is also 1-3 ATS in their past four games overall, and last weekend's loss was the first 'under' after a run of six straight 'over' results. The over is 8-2 in 10 games overall for U-Dub. The over has cashed in three in a row for the Sun Devils, thanks mostly to their flagging defense which has allowed an average of 46.7 PPG in the past three outings.

Southern California at UCLA (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
Years ago the battle of Los Angeles used to be a highly anticipated rivalry game on the national level. Whether it is USC or UCLA not playing at a top level, this game has taken a backseat to some of the other rivalries on the college football schedule. But this is a very heated game on the gridiron, regardless of records, as all of these kids have a deep knowledge of each other from playing against each other, sometimes growing up together, etc. It sounds rather cliche', but you really do need to toss out the record in games like this. Clay Helton lead the Trojans to a giant road win at Washington last weekend, shaking up the CFP, and they are installed as a 10 1/2-point favorite for this one. USC is 4-0 ATS in their past four conference games, but 2-6 ATS in their past eight on the road. Of course, last weekend's game was in Seattle, so that trend proved meaningless. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series, and the Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to the Rose Bowl. Can they prove that trend meaningless, too?

Arizona at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m.)
Two cellar-dwelling 2-8 clubs take the field at Reser Stadium in Corvallis Saturday night. While Arizona has been in the tank, Oregon State has actually been pretty competitive and a strong play at the betting window. Arizona heads into this game 3-13 ATS in their past 16 dating back to last season, 0-6 ATS in their past six conference games and 0-6 ATS in their past six road games. Oregon State is 4-0 ATS in their past four at home, 5-1 ATS in their past six conference tilts and 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall. The 'over' has been the overwhelming trend for both sides lately, going 5-1 in Arizona's past six road games and 7-2 in their past nine conference battles. The over is 7-3 in Oregon State's past 10 league outings and 5-2 in their past seven aganst teams with a losing record. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Corvallis, and 4-1 in the past five in this series. The Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Corvallis while the Wildcats are just 3-12 ATS in the past 15 meetings overall.

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:15 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 12 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

Well, that was interesting! Week 11 around college football looked like it should go chalk for all the top national championship contenders. Alabama, the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings, did its job as a 28.5-point home favorite against Mississippi State, blowing out the Bulldogs 51-3.

But all heck broke lose behind the Tide. No. 2 Clemson was a 21.5-point favorite at home against Pittsburgh and was shocked 43-42. It you have seen the Tigers play this year, you know they have played with fire a few times. It finally caught up with them. Deshaun Watson threw for an ACC-record 580 yards to go with three scores but he was picked off three times. Pitt kicker Chris Blewitt made a 48-yard field goal with six seconds left to win it. He was in position for that kick because Pitt stopped Wayne Gallman a yard short on third and fourth downs to take over near midfield with 58 seconds left. Clemson dropped to No. 5 in the new AP poll and probably will be at that spot in the new CFP Top 25 on Tuesday night.

The big question is where will Louisville be? The Cards are No. 3 in the AP Top 25 but were No. 6 in the latest CFP Top 25. I don't know how the committee could rank Louisville over Clemson since the Tigers won the head-to-head matchup and will play in the conference title game with a victory at Wake Forest this week.

CFP No. 3 Michigan was upset at No. 14 Iowa on Saturday, losing 14-13 as a 24-point favorite. I was all over taking those points because it was only Michigan's second game outside its own state all season - and the offense looked completely different with just 201 yards. The Wolverines are No. 4 in the new AP poll and I think they are fine for the playoff a long as they win out because they would still get such a major boost with a victory in two weeks at Ohio State, which is the No. 2 team in the new AP poll.

By the way, should Ohio State beat Michigan now and Penn State win out, the Nittany Lions would play in the Big Ten title game as the East's winner. How about that! Could the committee somehow include Penn State in the final Top 4 over Ohio State? The Lions do have that head-to-head win but were crushed by Michigan. What if Wisconsin beats Penn State in the Big Ten title game but has losses on its resume to Michigan and Ohio State?

Finally, CFP No. 4 Washington dropped to No. 7 in the AP poll following a 26-13 home loss to No. 20 USC. That game wasn't even that close as the surging Trojans were clearly the better team. But I think Washington is still fine for the playoff as long as it wins out. It might see USC again in the Pac-12 title game. It was the first time since Oct. 19, 1985, that the Nos. 2-4 teams in the AP poll all lost on the same day. Rather ironically, one of those teams back then losing was No. 2 Michigan at No. 1 Iowa in a game that Wolverines head coach was the quarterback for UM.

Here are a few Week 12 opening lines that caught my eye. Rankings from the last College Football Top 25 (which will change Tuesday) and games Saturday unless noted. There are a lot of potential "trap" games this week with several powers facing cupcakes ahead of a big season finale rivalry game.

No. 6 Louisville at Houston (+14), Thursday: It's the final true road game of the season for Louisville and the Cardinals aren't going to get much of a bounce by beating Houston because the Cougars have struggled since being ranked as high as No. 6. Spectacular QB matchup here between lock Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson of Louisville and Houston's Greg Ward Jr., who is a very similar player. That's if Ward plays. He surely will, but Ward has been dealing with a shoulder injury all season and aggravated it in Saturday's win over Tulane. There's no way the senior misses his final home game, also likely the final home game as Houston coach for Tom Herman, who seems likely to be at either Texas or LSU next year. UH has won 14 straight at home, the second-longest home winning streak in the nation behind Navy. It's the first time Houston will host a Top 5 team - and Louisville certainly will move up in the CFP Top 25 - since 1983. Ward outplayed Jackson last year in a 34-31 win at Louisville, but Jackson wasn't even the Cardinals' full-time starter yet. The pick: Houston (but Louisville wins).

Indiana at No. 3 Michigan (-26): This is one of those trap games I was talking, although Indiana isn't that bad this season. The Wolverines could be caught looking ahead to the Ohio State game and now come reports that starting QB Wilton Speight has been lost for the rest of the season to a broken collarbone suffered against Iowa in his non-throwing shoulder. Speight has completed 160 of 257 passes (62.3 percent) for 2,156 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. He might be able to return for a bowl game. Houston transfer John O’Korn would take over. He has played a bit this year and is 13 of 18 for 114 yards and two touchdowns. A lot of people thought he would win the starting job in fall camp. Harbaugh isn't confirming anything yet, not I would expect him to. The pick: Indiana to cover.

Florida at No. 24 LSU (-14): This game was originally scheduled for Oct. 8 in Gainesville but postponed due to Hurricane Matthew and then moved to Baton Rouge for this week after the ADs of both schools couldn't agree on playing at UF at some point this season. Now LSU will have to visit the Gators the next two years. Alabama already has clinched the SEC West title. If Florida beats LSU, the Gators (who might be without starting QB Luke Del Rio for the second week in a row) will repeat as East Division champion. But if UF loses and Tennessee beats Missouri and Vanderbilt to close out the season, the Volunteers will win the East for the first time since 2007 because UT beat Florida earlier this season in a huge comeback. The Tigers are in good shape to claim a Sugar Bowl bid should they complete the regular season with wins against Florida and Texas A&M. This will be LSU running back Leonard Fournette's final home game as he's going pro. The pick: UF covers but LSU wins.

No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 16 West Virginia (+3): All that chaos on Saturday certainly improved the Big 12's chances of sneaking a team in the playoff, although it's still a long shot. The Sooners are the only Big 12 team without a conference loss. Oklahoma State and West Virginia each have one. WVU would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker to the Cowboys but should win its final two games after this one at Iowa State and vs. Baylor, which has lost starting QB Seth Russell for the season. Oklahoma has just the Bedlam game on Dec. 3 against the Pokes remaining in the regular season. OSU visits TCU this week. WVU has won eight straight at home but hasn't beaten Oklahoma since joining the Big 12. The Sooners also have won 14 straight Big 12 games, the longest in the conference since Texas won 20 straight from 2004 to 2006. The pick: Oklahoma.

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:16 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

Ducks' disappointments give college football bettors something to celebrate
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Pay close enough attention and you’ll notice that the Oregon-Utah matchup scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET Saturday afternoon makes several appearances throughout the various sections contained within this column.

A warning to all Ducks fans: You may want to avert your eyes.

After notching double-digit victories in seven consecutive seasons beginning in 2008, including two trips to the National Championship Game, the first cracks in the Oregon façade appeared last season when head coach Mark Helfrich guided the Ducks to a final record of just 9-4.

On the surface, 2015 wasn’t a terrible campaign for the Oregon football program, but the warning signs were there: back-to-back home losses to Utah and Washington, respectively, as well as a 47-41 Alamo Bowl loss to TCU in which the Ducks blew a 31-0 halftime lead.

2016 saw the roof collapse on a once-proud program.

With two games left on the schedule, Oregon is an abysmal 3-7 on the season and now ineligible for postseason play for the first time since 2004 after getting blasted 52-27 by Stanford in Eugene last Saturday.

The defense has been nonexistent, the offense looks vanilla and the flash and pop former head coach Chip Kelly brought to the university now appears nothing more than a distant memory.

So after failing to cover the number six of its last seven outings and with a bowl berth completely out of reach, does Oregon pack it in this weekend at Utah?

Even when the Ducks were focused and committed this season, the team was still getting embarrassed on a weekly basis. Prior to last weekend’s 25-point defeat against Stanford, Oregon had lost by 25 at USC, 49 vs. Washington and 18 at Washington State.

And now at 1-10-1 ATS over its last 12 games overall, you’ll have to excuse me for getting excited about laying 14 points with a Utah squad that has covered the spread in four of its last five conference showdowns.

R.I.P. Oregon.

SHARP MONEY VS. PUBLIC MONEY: BEHIND THE COUNTER

Each and every week during the 2016 college football season, this column will speak with a Las Vegas Bookmaker in an effort to bring you the most important betting information possible regarding the upcoming weekend’s schedule.

This week we speak with Ed Salmons, who currently has the pleasure of serving as Manager of Race & Sports at the legendary Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Biggest adjustments made to your power rankings after Week 9: “Not much has changed in regards to our power rankings with the exception of USC, who is obviously a team that has climbed big time. Other teams on the rise as evident from last week’s lines include Troy and Arkansas State, who happen to play each other this week.”

Any significant action on your championship futures: “Nothing new to report on that front.”

Week 10 sharp action: “We’ve seen a lot of Utah money this week [-14 vs. Oregon] and the sharps are also backing USC once again [-12.5 at UCLA], which has become a weekly occurrence. We’ve also taken sharp action on Northwestern [-1.5 vs. Minnesota].”

Week 10 public action: “Most of the public action we book tends to come in on the weekends, so it’s hard to identify specific games at the moment.”

How do you currently rank the Top 3 teams in the nation: Alabama, Ohio State and Louisville. I have Alabama as more than a touchdown favorite over those two programs as well as two other teams.”

Which teams do you currently feel are overvalued in the betting market: “I’m not sure I would say they are overvalued at the moment, but it’s hard to get a feel for Michigan now that quarterback Wilton Speight has gone down with a shoulder injury.”

Which teams do you currently feel are undervalued in the betting market: “Despite a record of 6-3, LSU is a team with a high rating.”

TREND OF THE WEEK

Don’t look now, but Central Florida first-year head coach Scott Frost, a student of the Chip Kelly school of coaching, has the Knights cooking with gas. After a disastrous 0-12 campaign last year in George O’Leary’s final season on the job, Central Florida is a respectable and bowl eligible 6-4 in 2016 with two games remaining.

Perhaps what’s more impressive, however, is the fact that Central Florida is 4-0 ATS over its last four outings and 7-1 ATS over its last eight games overall.

Keep that in mind as we head into a Saturday slate of action that includes an intriguing showdown between Frost’s upstart UCF program and a 7-3 Tulsa squad (8:00 p.m. ET) that is coming off a 42-40 loss at Navy last weekend.

And for those of you who like to study line movements, be advised that Tulsa has already moved from a 2.5-point favorite to a 1-point favorite despite the fact that 58 percent of the action is coming in on the Golden Hurricane.

BONUS: The Under has hit in each of Central Florida’s last five games.

BIGGEST LINE MOVES OF THE WEEK

San Diego State Aztecs (-7.5 to -10) at Wyoming Cowboys: The key here is whether or not Wyoming can bounce back from last Saturday’s 69-66 triple-overtime defeat at UNLV, which snapped a five-game win and cover streak.

As for San Diego State, the Aztecs have rattled off six straight wins and four consecutive point spread covers thanks to a lockdown defense that has surrendered an average of just seven points per game over its last six outings. Be advised that SDSU is 8-2 ATS over its last ten road dates.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (PK to -2.5) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: The Bulldogs look to rebound from a 51-3 drubbing suffered at the hands of top-ranked Alabama last weekend while Arkansas tries to right the ship after falling 38-10 vs. LSU in the program’s last outing.

The home team is 10-4 ATS over the last 14 encounters between these two programs, in addition to the fact that Arkansas is just 2-6 ATS over its last eight trips to Mississippi State.

Utah Utes (-12 to -14.5) vs. Oregon Ducks: Oregon has dropped seven of its last eight games and has no chance of reaching bowl eligibility after last Saturday’s 52-27 home loss vs. Stanford, meaning the Ducks could seriously mail it in for this one.

The Utes have covered the number in three straight outings and are now 12-5 ATS over their last 17 games after permitting more than 280 passing yards in the previous outing.

Illinois Fighting Illini (+11.5 to +9.5) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: This is a potential letdown spot for the Hawkeyes, who turned the college football world upside down last Saturday night via a 14-13 upset victory over previously unbeaten Michigan despite closing as a 24-point underdog. Take note that Iowa is 1-4 ATS in its last four trips to Illinois and just 1-5-1 ATS over its last seven outings following an against-the-spread win.

Washington Huskies (-25 to -27) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: The Huskies still have a shot to qualify for this season’s college football playoff, but those hopes took a serious hit after Washington fell 26-13 at home vs. USC last Saturday.

Arizona State, meanwhile, has dropped four straight contests and is now 0-4 ATS over its last four road dates. The favorite in this series has covered the spread in nine of the last ten showdowns between these two programs.

HEISMAN TROPHY WATCH

The rundown: It’s Lamar Jackson’s world and we’re all just living in it. The Heisman frontrunner, who has now moved from a price of 1/30 to 1/50, turned in a moderate passing performance this past Saturday in a 44-12 rout of Wake Forest (14/26, 145 yards, 1 TD), but torched the Demon Deacons on the ground to the tune of 153 yards on 22 carries. Barring an astronomical shift to the college football landscape, Jackson has this thing all sewn up.

Other candidates who received an odds bump this past week include Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett (25/1 to 20/1), Washington State signal-caller Luke Falk (30/1 to 25/1) and Pittsburgh running back John Connor (1000/1 to 500/1).

Those who saw their stock take a significant hit include Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson (12/1 to 20/1), Houston dual-threat signal-caller Greg Ward, Jr. (200/1 to 500/1), Michigan safety Jabrill Peppers (12/1 to 15/1) and Washington quarterback Jake Browning (10/1 to 30/1). Watson’s Tigers lost to Pittsburgh, Peppers’ Wolverines were upset at Iowa and Browning’s Huskies came up short against USC.

Baylor quarterback Seth Russell was the only player who was removed from the odds board this week.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville: 1/50 (100/1)
Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan: 15/1 (50/1)
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson: 20/1 (5/1)
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State: 20/1 (12/1)
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State: 25/1 (40/1)
Jake Browning, QB, Washington: 30/1 (80/1)
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State: 30/1 (80/1)
D’Onta Foreman, RB, Texas: 60/1 (40/1)
Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State: 80/1 (10/1)
Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State: 100/1 (100/1)
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama: 100/1 (25/1)
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma: 100/1 (10/1)
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford: 200/1 (7/1)
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State: 200/1 (50/1)
Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State: 300/1 (20/1)
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech: 300/1 (30/1)
Greg Ward, Jr., QB, Houston: 500/1 (50/1)
Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina: 500/1 (80/1)
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama: 500/1 (30/1)
Corey Clement, RB, Wisconsin: 500/1 (50/1)
Elijah Hood, RB, North Carolina: 500/1 (50/1)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC: 500/1 (80/1)
Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M: 500/1 (80/1)
James Connor, RB, Pittsburgh: 500/1 (100/1)
Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma: 1000/1 (20/1)
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: 1000/1 (6/1)
Josh Dobbs, QB, Tennessee: 1000/1 (30/1)
DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame: 1000/1 (30/1)
Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M: 1000/1 (100/1)
Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon: 1000/1 (20/1)
Wilton Speight, QB, Michigan: 1000/1 (300/1)
Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami: 1000/1 (40/1)
Wayne Gallman, RB, Clemson: 9999/1 (100/1)
Damien Harris, RB, Alabama: 9999/1 (25/1)
Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama: 9999/1 (20/1)
C.J. Beathard, QB, Iowa: 9999/1 (300/1)
Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida: 9999/1 (100/1)
Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia: 9999/1 (12/1)
Kenny Hill, QB, TCU: 9999/1 (100/1)
Taysom Hill, QB, BYU: 9999/1 (100/1)

Odds courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. Opening odds listed in parenthesis.

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:16 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

Traps to Watch - Week 12

Week 12 Full Of Potential Trap Games In NCAA Football

The final full weekend of college football is next weekend and it's the biggest rivalry Saturday of the season. This year there are College Football Playoff relevant games between Washington-Washington State and Michigan-Ohio State, to name two.

The Iron Bowl could be important only if Auburn were to stage a huge upset of No. 1 Alabama, the heavy -150 national championship. The Tide are the only Power 5 unbeaten team left.

Because so many powerhouse teams are playing relative cupcakes this Saturday and could have a potential eye on next week's regular-season finale, Week 12 is often a big trap/look-ahead weekend for the overwhelming favorites. Here are some to be wary of with sportsbooks spreads and Associated Press rankings.

No. 2 Ohio State at Michigan State (+21.5): The Spartans are the country's biggest disappointments this year after reaching last year's College Football Playoff as they have just one Big Ten win in their worst season under Coach Mark Dantonio. Perhaps the Buckeyes won't overlook Sparty because MSU pulled off a 17-14 upset in Columbus last year to ruin Ohio State's chances of repeating as the national champions. But you can't tell me the OSU players won't be more focused on Ann Arbor.

Indiana at No. 4 Michigan (-22.5): Speaking of Ann Arbor, it's the home finale for Michigan, which will play without starting quarterback Wilton Speight after he injured his collarbone in last week's shocking loss in Iowa. But the Wolverines still control their Big Ten title and playoff destiny with, assuming they take care of business here, a win in Columbus next week.

No. 17 Florida State at Syracuse (+21): It has been a disappointing season for the Seminoles, a preseason Top-5 club and popular pick to make the national semifinals. Beating Syracuse on Saturday isn't going to change anything. But you know FSU would love to spank potential SEC East Division champion and blood-rival Florida next week just as happened in last year's game. Doubtful Syracuse gets full attention here.

Chattanooga at No. 1 Alabama (-49.5): The penultimate Saturday of the SEC regular season is always terrible because most of these programs are beating up on FCS programs. Why would Alabama even play its starters more than a quarter or two ahead of next week's game vs. Auburn? The Tide often fail to cover these games. You could put Auburn's game vs. Alabama A&M on Saturday on this list as well. Ditto South Carolina's game vs. Western Carolina as the Gamecocks have a chance to ruin rival Clemson's season next week.

Arizona State at No. 7 Washington (-27): ASU would get bowl eligible with an upset here, but it's all about the Huskies. What will they have left in the tank in seeing their College Football Playoff hopes take a big hit in last week's one-sided home loss to Southern Cal? Plus the Huskies visit Washington State in the Apple Cup next week, with the winner claiming the Pac-12 North Division.

Buffalo at No. 14 Western Michigan (-34): The Mid-American Conference's Broncos are the nation's other unbeaten team and they have a direct path to playing in a New Year's Six bowl game for the first time in school history as long as they win out. This sets up in a myriad of ways as a trap game for WMU. First, Buffalo stinks and the Broncos host a very good Toledo team next week for the right to play in the MAC title game. Second, ESPN GameDay is in Kalamazoo this weekend. That's a huge deal for a program like Western Michigan. It's a shame that WMU won't be able to keep Coach P.J. Fleck as he'll be in high demand by bigger programs this offseason.

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:16 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

Saturday's NCAAF action report: Week 12 has seen plenty of line movement
By PATRICK EVERSON

Week 12 of the college football season brings with it a host of games that have seen line movement throughout the week. We talk about where the action is with Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US in Nevada, and Matthew Holt, COO of analytics for CG Technology in Las Vegas.

No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 14 West Virginia – Open: +4.5; Move: +3; Move: +3.5

Since a bumpy start of 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS, Oklahoma has ripped off seven consecutive victories, all in Big 12 play to stand unbeaten in conference action. The Sooners (8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 45-24 victory over Baylor as a healthy 17.5-point home favorite.

West Virginia has just one blemish on its record, a loss at Oklahoma State last month, and would be in prime position to win the conference title with a victory in this 8 p.m. Eastern contest. The Mountaineers (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) edged Texas 24-20 last week as a 1-point road chalk.

“The public has been all over Oklahoma, as expected here, with that high-powered offense,” Holt said. “But the sharps have actually been all over the home underdog, the West Virginia Mountaineers, dropping that line all the way below 4.”

The line opened at Sooners -4.5 on Sunday, dropped to 3 on Monday and stayed there until Thursday afternoon, when it ticked back up to 3.5 at CG sportsbooks, including at The Cosmopolitan, M and the Venetian.

“This is gonna be a pros vs. Joes game, as the public loves that Oklahoma offense, the sharps love that West Virginia defense,” Holt said.

At William Hill, the line was posted Monday at Oklahoma -3 and mirrored CG in moving up to 3.5 on Thursday.

“All the money so far is on Oklahoma,” Bogdanovich said. “The Sooners have been playing good ball lately, so that’s not a surprise. Even this deep into the season, I don’t know how good the Mountaineers are. Obviously, the bettors are on Oklahoma. I know we’re gonna need West Virginia.”

No. 13 Southern California Trojans at UCLA Bruins – Open: +10.5; Move: +13

USC is on a six-game tear in the Pac-12, punctuated by a huge road upset last week. The Trojans (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) went to Seattle and knocked off previously unbeaten Washington 26-13 catching 10 points.

UCLA, which lost quarterback Josh Rosen to a season-ending shoulder injury last month, halted a four-game SU skid last week. The Bruins (4-6 SU and ATS) handled Oregon State 38-24 as an 11.5-point home fave.

“Southern Cal is coming off beating Washington handily up at Washington, and UCLA is without its star quarterback,” Bogdanovich said of this 10:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff. “It’s a rivalry game, so sometimes you’ve gotta take that into consideration. Will USC have a letdown? I doubt it, because it’s the big rival, crosstown rival.”

Of the 2.5-point jump in the line, Bogdanovich said, “It’s probably a combination of sharp and public money. We’re gonna need UCLA big, for sure.”

No. 22 Washington State Cougars at No. 12 Colorado Buffaloes – Open: -4.5; Move: -3.5; Move: -4.5; Move: -6

Washington State is the only team in the Pac-12 without a conference loss, at 7-0 SU. That includes a 56-21 home wipeout of California last week giving 17 points, as the Cougars moved to 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS with their eighth consecutive victory.

Colorado is arguably one of the biggest surprises in college football this season and has been a boon for bettors with a best-in-the-nation 9-1 ATS mark. The Buffaloes (8-2 SU) have won four in a row since a setback at USC, trouncing Arizona 49-24 last week as a 17.5-point road favorite.

“A lot on the line here,” Holt said. “Washington State undefeated in the Pac-12, and they have become a public darling with that offense this year. (This game) opened Colorado -4.5, public money actually drove that line as low as 3.5, but we’ve seen the sharps here on the home favorite, driving that line back up to 4.5 (Thursday). A lot of respect for the Colorado Buffaloes this year by the sharp players, and the public loves that high-powered offense of Washington State.”

More money hit Colorado on Friday, bumping that line all the way up to 6 at CG, with a price of -115. William Hill shops opened Colorado -3.5 and have also gone to 6 for this 3:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff.
“This is one of the better games of the week,” Bogdanovich said. “All the money is on Colorado so far. Probably a combination of sharp and public action.”

San Diego State Aztecs at Wyoming Cowboys – Open: +7.5; Move: +9.5

Somehow, Mountain West Conference leader San Diego State enters this game unranked, despite a solid 9-1 SU mark (6-3-1 ATS). The Aztecs have won six straight, cashing in five of those contests, including a 46-16 win at Nevada last week as a hefty 21.5-point fave.

Wyoming (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) saw its five-game winning streak come crashing down at the hands of UNLV last week. Tied at 52 after regulation, the Cowboys lost 69-66 in triple overtime laying 7.5 points on the road.

“San Diego State has been dominating the league, and Wyoming just gave up 69 points to UNLV,” Bogdanovich said. “The public for sure is on the Aztecs, and wiseguys may have gotten there as well.”

The two teams kick off at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans – Open: +22; Move: +23; Move: +21.5

In the wake of Michigan’s loss at Iowa last week, Ohio State is firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation heading into this noon Eastern Big 10 contest. The Buckeyes (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) posted a 62-3 victory for the second straight week, this time against Maryland as a 28-point road favorite.

Michigan State (3-7 SU and ATS) is playing out the string at this point. The Spartans snapped a season-killing seven-game losing streak with a 49-0 win over Rutgers giving 17 points at home last week.

“This is a big spot for Ohio State. (The Buckeyes) need to win out, win out impressively,” Holt said. “The sharps are actually on the home underdog here, not surprisingly, because it’s a lookahead spot for Ohio State, with the big game against Michigan coming up. That tends to be a natural spot where sharps like to take the home underdog, especially catching more than three touchdowns.

“This is another one, we’re seeing the public heavily on the No. 2-ranked team in the country, but the sharps all over the home ‘dog in the lookahead spot.”

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines – Open: -26; Move: -23.5; Move: 24; Move: 25

Michigan was part of the trifecta of top-five takedowns last week, joining Clemson and Washington as stunning losers. The Wolverines (9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS) tumbled at Iowa 14-13 as a 24-point road fave. Meanwhile, Indiana (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) lost to Penn State 45-31 getting 6.5 points at home.
Michigan QB Wilson Speight (collarbone) is out at least this week.

“That line move is more on information,” Bogdanovich said. “Even though the backup (John O’Korn) is decent, it dropped a couple points.”

The usual weekly onslaught of Michigan money may have been stemmed by the upset loss.
“They burned a lot of money last week at Iowa,” Bogdanovich said of Wolverines backers. “I don’t think it will be an avalanche this week.”

That said, some Wolverines cash pushed the number up to 25 Friday.

The game is slated for a 3:30 p.m. Eastern start.

Oregon Ducks at Utah Utes – Open: -12.5; Move: -14.5; Move: 14

Utah (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) still has a shot to win the Pac-12 South and reach the conference championship game. The Utes rolled past Arizona State 49-26 as a 4-point road fave in the Week 11 Thursday night game. Oregon (3-7 SU, 1-8-1 ATS) took yet another double-digit beating last week, falling to Stanford 52-27 catching 3 points at home.

“All the money has been on Utah so far,” Bogdanovich said of action for this 2 p.m. Eastern kick. “It’s a combination of sharp and public money.”

Other games that have seen sizable moves at Wynn Las Vegas, which posts college lines each Sunday, earlier than most Las Vegas books:

• Louisiana State is laying 14.5 at home to Florida in a game rescheduled and moved from Gainesville to Baton Rouge, due to Hurricane Matthew. The Tigers opened as 11-point chalk.
• Boston College is up to an 8.5-point home favorite against Connecticut, after opening at 6.5.
• Texas-El Paso opened -1.5 at Rice, was bet up to 2.5, but has since flipped to a 1-point underdog.
• Georgia was bet up to a 23-point home fave against Louisiana-Lafayette, after opening at 20.5.
• New Mexico State has gone from a 7-point favorite to -9.5 at home against Texas State.
• Oregon State started as an 8.5-point home chalk against Arizona, but Wildcats backers have brought that number down to 6.

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:17 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

College football four-point stance: Week 12 pointspread picks and predictions
By PATRICK EVERSON

A cursory glance of the Oklahoma resume would have you thinking the 8-2 Sooners were one of the country’s top powerhouse programs. After all, Bob Stoops’ troop is riding a seven-game winning streak and boasts a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who has completed greater than 70.0 percent of his passes in six of his last seven starts.

Don’t be fooled.

Yes, Oklahoma has put together a respectable 2016 campaign, but the Sooners have spent their last four games squeaking by a 4-6 Texas Tech squad, hammering a laughable Kansas program, winning, but failing to cover, against a 2-8 Iowa State team and busting up on a Baylor club that officially checked out on the season after dropping a heartbreaker at Texas on October 29.

On the other side of the field resides a West Virginia team that is feeling precisely no love despite an 8-1 record and a Big 12 defense that is surrendering an average of just 20 points and 409 total yards per conference showdown in 2016. Those aren’t the types of numbers that would warrant a contract extension for a head coach in the NFC West, but are nothing short of remarkable considering the level of defensive aptitude that permeates the Big 12 conference.

From a trends perspective, take note that Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS over its last five road dates and 0-5 ATS over its last five matchups following an ATS win, while West Virginia has covered the number in four of its last five November games.

Pick: West Virginia +3.5

Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers

When: Saturday, November 19 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Northwestern -1.5

Don’t let Northwestern’s 5-5 record trick you because the Wildcats are a sound football team that has covered the number in five of its last six outings. Case in point: Of those five losses sustained by Pat Fitzgerald’s crew so far this season, one was a four-point defeat at Ohio State and two came within the first two outings of the year when this offense was nowhere near the level it has been playing at in recent weeks.

Minnesota’s four-game winning streak came to an abrupt halt last Saturday night at Nebraska when the Gophers were outcoached and outscored 14-0 in the second half en route to a 24-17 defeat. But look closely at that aforementioned four-game winning streak and you’ll notice that Minnesota’s opposition was as weak as imaginable, with Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue combining to produce a record of just 13-27 so far in 2016.

Back to Northwestern, be advised that the Wildcats are averaging an explosive 41.8 points per game over their last four road trips and are 6-0 ATS over their last six road dates. Additionally, the road team in this series is 15-4 ATS over the last 19 meetings between these two programs.

Pick: Northwestern -1.5

Oregon Ducks at Utah Utes

When: Saturday, November 19 at 2:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Utah -14

Last Saturday’s 52-27 home pummeling suffered at the hands of the Stanford Cardinal guarantees that Oregon will win no more than five games in 2016, meaning the Ducks will miss out on a bowl game for the first time since 2004. So what are the odds Mark Helfrich’s squad, which is now 1-10-1 ATS over its last 12 games overall, even bothers to show up for this conference showdown?

The key to Utah’s success on Saturday resides in the talent of standout running back Joe Williams, who is averaging a ridiculous 7.0 yards per carry this season while notching at least 170 rushing yards in each of his last four starts. Williams should have no problem whatsoever slicing and dicing an Oregon defense that has surrendered 552 rushing yards over its last two outings.

Take note that Utah is 4-1 ATS over its last five Pac-12 matchups and 6-1 ATS over its last seven games after scoring more than 40 points the previous week, while Oregon is 1-7 ATS over its last eight Pac-12 encounters and 1-5-1 ATS over its last seven games against teams with a winning record.

Pick: Utah -14

Mississippi Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores

When: Saturday, November 19 at 8:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Mississippi -10

The loss of standout quarterback Chad Kelly to an ACL injury against Georgia Southern on November 5 didn’t paralyze the Rebels one bit, as freshman signal-caller Shea Patterson completed 25 of 42 passes for 338 yards and two touchdowns in a 29-28 upset win at Texas A&M last Saturday. So the Rebels should be cooking with gas heading into a relatively casual matchup with 4-6 Vanderbilt, right?

If that’s what you’re thinking, then we advise you consider pumping the breaks just a bit.

For starters, true freshman quarterbacks can be highly inconsistent (see: Shane Buechele) and it’s likely that this line is a bit inflated based on Patterson’s performance last weekend. Second, Vanderbilt has just two games remaining on the schedule and both need to come up roses if the Commodores want to sneak their way into bowl eligibility.

Perhaps more importantly, take note that Ole Miss is a horrific 1-11 ATS over its last 12 games as road chalk when coming off a win.

Pick: Vanderbilt +10

Last week: 0-4 ATS
Season: 25-19 ATS (56.8%)

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:17 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

NCAAF Game of the Day: Oklahoma at West Virginia

No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 14 West Virginia Mountaineers (+3.5, 66.5)

The Big 12 hasn't earned must respect from the College Football Playoff committee and rightfully so with Oklahoma losing two of its first three games and Baylor dropping three straight after a 6-0 start. But with a sudden shortage of undefeated and one-loss teams, the winner of Saturday's Big 12 showdown in West Virginia between the No. 8 Sooners and No. 9 Mountaineers could vault itself into the CFP conversation while gaining the inside track to the conference title.

Red-hot Oklahoma, which has won eight straight games, moved up two spots in the CFP rankings to No. 9 while West Virginia is up to 14th. "We're in control of our own destiny right now, and, like I said, it's on to the next one," Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield told reporters. "But it's really exciting to go to Morgantown." Oklahoma, which has won all four meetings since the Mountaineers joined the Big 12 in 2012, is at full strength as running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine played together for the first time in four games last week and each rushed for 100 yards in a 45-24 victory over Baylor. West Virginia bounced back from its only blemish of the season - a 37-20 loss at Oklahoma State on Oct. 29 - with a pair of victories, including 24-20 at Texas last week.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: The Sooners opened as 3-point road favorites and that number has dropped as low as 2.5, before rising to 3.5 and has been sitting there since Thursday. The total hit the board as 67 and has been bet down to 66.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Oklahoma - DT Matthew Romar (questionable, leg), LB Kapri Doucet (questionable, suspension), RB Devin Montgomery (questionable, head)

West Virginia - DL Noble Nwachukwu (probable, leg), DL Xavier Pegues (questionable, shoulder), CB Antonio Crawford (questionable, undisclosed)

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 60 percent chance of light showers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Temperatures will be in the high 30’s with gusty winds from the west ranging from 10-20 mph.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "This game is a matchup of strength vs. strength. West Virginia is the better defensive team as a home underdog in this game, but Oklahoma has a substantial offensive edge. The Mountaineers are allowing just 20.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play (versus opponents that average 32.4 ppg and 6.0 yppl). They will now be facing a strong Oklahoma offense that averages 44.2 points per game on 7.6 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 29.9 ppg and 5.7 yppl)." - Steve Merril

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U): With Mixon (937 yards, six touchdowns) and Perine (575, eight) in and out of the lineup, senior wide receiver and Biletnikoff Award semifinalist Dede Westbrook has been a constant with 68 catches for 1,254 yards and 14 TDs - all tops in the Big 12. Mayfield is also putting together an extraordinary season with a 72 percent completion rate - second in the nation - and 33 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Senior linebacker Jordan Evans recorded nine tackles, two sacks, two interceptions and two pass breakups against Baylor, becoming the first Sooner to record two interceptions and two sacks in a game.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS, 3-6 O/U): The Mountaineers put their eight-game home winning streak in the hands of senior quarterback Skyler Howard, who completes 64.5 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions while recording a team-high six rushing TDs. Two of his favorite targets are senior wide receiver Daikiel Shorts (14.8 yards per 51 receptions, four touchdowns) and junior wide receiver Shelton Gibson, who averages 20 yards per 35 receptions with six scores. Senior cornerback Rasul Douglas is tied for second in the nation with six interceptions and tied for 21st with 12 passes defended.

TRENDS:

* Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 9-1 in Mountaineers last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 8-2 in Mountaineers last 10 games in November.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent are taking the road favorite while 67 percent favor the over in this battle of top 25 teams.

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:17 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

'Big-12 Showdown'

Oklahoma Sooners at West Virginia Mountaineers November 19, 8:00 EST

The Sooners (8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS) have ripped off seven consecutive victories (4-3 ATS), including a 45-24 rout of Baylor at home Saturday giving 17.5 points. Sooners no slouches on the offensive end are racking up 44.2 points/game on 557.5 total yards. But, the defense despite a solid effort this past weekend is a work in progress as the unit is allowing 30.8 points/game on 429.5 total yards.

Mountaineers (8-1, 4-5 ATS) holding off Longhorn 24-20 as a 1-point road favorite Saturday are ridding a two game win streak (1-1 ATS). Mountaineers head into the showdown putting up 32.2 points/game while churning out 496.6 total yards. Defense a moniker for Mountaineers the unit is allowing a Big-12 best 20.6 points/game on 409.8 total yards.

The schools have met four times since Mountaineers joined the Big 12 in 2012 with Sooners winning all four matchups (2-2 ATS) including a 45-33 win/cover last trip into Morgantown. According to opening odds the Sooners are handing Mountaineers 3 points of offense.

Winning on the road is always a challenge, winning on the road against a conference rival an even bigger challenge. However, Sooners are 6-1 ATS as road chalk of 4.5 or less, have a 16-2 SU stretch in unfriendly territory with a profitable 12-6 record against the betting line including 9-5 ATS as road chalk. Sooners are also 7-4 ATS last eleven away vs a conference opponent. On the other side, Mountaineers haven't consistently covered the spread at home vs a Big-12 rival posting an 8-13 record including 4-3 ATS in an underdog roll. Given the numbers above the lean is Sooners.

**TheGame** · 11-19-2016, 07:18 AM

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

Florida at LSU
By Brian Edwards

Florida (7-2 straight up, 3-5-1 against the spread) can lock up a second straight SEC East title with a victory on Saturday, but that task at Tiger Stadium will be a tall one with six starters out with injuries. The Gators are set to face LSU in Baton Rouge for a second straight year after the Oct. 8 meeting in Gainesville was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had LSU installed as a 14.5-point home favorite with a total of 38.5. Gamblers can back the Gators on the money line for a monster +475 payout (risk $100 to win $475).

This is just the second time UF has ben a double-digit underdog since Jim McElwain took over. Florida took the cash in that lone instance, a 29-15 loss to Alabama as a 17.5-point underdog at last year’s SEC Championship Game.

LSU (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) is off its best performance of the season in Fayetteville, where it took Arkansas behind the woodshed in a 38-10 beatdown as a nine-point road ‘chalk.’ Derrius Guice erupted for a career-best 252 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. He was given extra touches when Leonard Fournette re-aggravated the ankle injury that prompted him to miss three games earlier in the year.

Nevertheless, Fournette still ran for 98 yards and three TDs on 17 attempts. He also had a pair of catches for 44 yards. For the season, Fournette has rushed for 803 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Guice has rushed for a team-best 881 yards and nine TDs, averaging an eye-opening 8.7 YPC on 101 attempts.

This game will feature a pair of former Purdue QBs. LSU’s Danny Etling once lost his job as Purdue’s starting QB to his counterpart on Saturday, UF’s Austin Appleby. Etling has completed 58.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards with a 7/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

He has a pair of future NFL WRs in Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural. Neither wideout gets enough touches, nor did Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham when they were in Baton Rouge. The stats don’t do either player justice, as both have 28 catches apiece. Dupre has a team-high 365 receiving yards and two TDs, while Dural has 280 receiving yards and one TD.

LSU ranks 13th in the nation in total defense and sixth in scoring, allowing only 13.9 points per game. This unit has held five of its last six foes to 10 points or fewer. This group is led by senior LB Kendell Beckwith, who has a team-best 90 tackles to go with six tackles for loss, one sack, one QB hurry and four passes broken up.

The secondary features a pair of All-American candidates in junior safety Jamal Adams and senior CB Tre’Davious White. Adams has recorded 60 tackles, one interception, one fumble recovery, 4.5 TFL’s, one forced fumble, one QB hurry and three PBU, while White has 26 tackles, two interceptions, one pick-six, one fumble recovery, three TFL’s, 0.5 sacks and six PBU.

Florida bounced back from a 31-10 loss at Arkansas by knocking off South Carolina 20-7 as a 13-point home favorite. With the exception of two plays, both turnovers, Appleby looked extremely sharp in his third start of the season against the Gamecocks, who brought a three-game winning streak to The Swamp.

Appleby completed 17-of-21 passes for 201 yards and two TDs. He was intercepted once and fumbled the QB-center exchange when the Gators were at USC’s two. Appleby did the same thing on a second-and-goal play when UF was one yard away from getting ahead of the number at Vanderbilt. The Gators had a 13-6 advantage on the Commodores with less than three remaining when they were laying 10 points.

Unlike Luke Del Rio, who will miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury, Appleby can make plays with his legs. He rushed for 34 yards on six attempts against USC. Jordan Scarlett finished with a career-best 134 rushing yards on 20 carries.

Antonio Callaway had four receptions for 48 yards, while WR Ahmad Fullwood had two catches for 48 yards and one TD on his Senior Day. Callaway had 100 yards on four punt returns despite getting one for a TD called back on a shaky flag.

For the year, Appleby has connected on 65.6 percent of his throws for 671 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. Callaway has 35 receptions for 533 yards, while Brandon Powell has 30 catches for 291 yards and two TDs.

Scarlett has rushed for a team-high 617 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC. True freshman Lamical Perine has emerged as the back-up to Scarlett. Perine has rushed for 347 yards and one TD with a 4.9 YPC average. He also has six catches for 103 yards and one TD.

UF’s stop unit is ranked third in the nation in total defense and pass defense. The Gators are fifth in scoring (13.3 PPG) and 11th against the run. However, they will be without four starters at LSU, including their top three tacklers.

Senior LB Jarrad Davis, junior LB Alex Anzalone, senior safety Marcus Maye and senior DE Bryan Cox Jr. are ‘out.’ Anzalone and Maye are done for the season, while Davis (ankle) and Cox (leg) hope to return in the regular-season finale at Florida St.

Davis has 56 tackles, six TFL’s, two sacks, five QB hurries and four PBU, while Anzalone has tallied 53 tackles, four TFL’s, three sacks, six QB hurries and two PBU. Maye has produced 50 tackles, six PBU, one sack, 1.5 TFL’s and one interception.

Kylan Johnson, a redshirt freshman LB, made his first career start vs. South Carolina and responded well. Johnson had seven tackles and one TFL. Also, true freshman LB David Reese had 11 tackles against the Gamecocks.

Florida has been a road underdog just twice on Jim McElwain’s watch, going 0-1-1 ATS. The Gators dropped a 38-28 decision at Tennessee as five-point ‘dogs earlier this year. Also, they lost 35-28 at LSU as seven-point ‘dogs last season.

UF has been a ‘dog or 6.5 points or more three times under McElwain, compiling a 2-0-1 spread record.

I was at Tiger Stadium for last year’s encounter. With the game knotted at 28-28 midway through the fourth quarter, Les Miles called a successful trick play against Florida for the umpteenth time in a row in his 11th meeting against them. It worked – yet again – when the holder lateraled to kicker Trent Domingue who scored on a 16-yard TD run.

Fournette ran for 180 yards and two TDs on 31 carries, while Dupre had four receptions for 115 yards and two TDs. Dural had five catches for 65 yards.

Callaway had three catches for 100 yards and tied the game late in the third quarter with a 72-yard punt return for a TD.

The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the Gators, 2-1 in their three previous road assignments. They have seen their games average combined scores of 39.6 points per game.

The ‘under’ has been a steady money maker for LSU, cashing at a 6-1-2 overall clip. The ‘under’ is 4-0-2 in the Tigers’ six home games.

The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back meetings between these schools and is 6-3 in the last nine UF-LSU encounters.

LSU has won three in a row over UF both SU and ATS. The Gators haven’t tasted victory over the Tigers since a 14-6 win at The Swamp in 2012.

The SEC Network will provide the broadcast at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Even if UF loses in Red Stick, Tennessee must win Saturday’s home game (and next week’s game at Vandy) vs. Missouri to keep alive its hopes to go to Atlanta for the first time since 2007. CBS will have television coverage from Neyland Stadium at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. Most spots have the Vols favored by 16.5 point with a total of 68.

-- Ole Miss (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) garnered a season-salvaging 29-28 win at Texas A&M last Saturday night. The Rebels, who have been on the wrong end of tight games galore all year, trailed at intermission for the first time all season. However, true freshman QB Shea Patterson, who was making his collegiate debut, rallied his team by throwing a pair of TD passes in the fourth quarter before leading a drive into field-goal range for Gary Wunderlich’s 39-yard game winner with 37 ticks remaining. Patterson threw for 338 yards and rushed for 64 in front of more than 104,000 hostile fans in College Station. Ole Miss will face Vanderbilt in Nashville as a 9.5-point road ‘chalk.’

-- The ‘under’ has cashed in all six of Vandy’s SEC games this year. Each of those contests had 43 points or fewer. The Commodores are 4-0 ATS when catching 9.5 points or more this year. They haven’t lost any SEC games by a double-digit margin. When listed as a home underdog on Derek Mason’s watch, the ‘Dores own a 6-3 spread record.

-- Alabama will take on Chattanooga as a heavy favorite, but the line wasn’t out as of late Friday afternoon. It will certainly be north of 35 when it comes out Friday night or early Saturday morning. Therefore, we should note that the Crimson Tide is an abysmal 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite of 35 points or more.

-- Texas A&M is a 27.5-point home favorite vs. UTSA. The Aggies have failed to cover the number in six straight games. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners are 3-1 ATS in four games as double-digit underdogs and the lone non-cover was a brutal bad beat to La. Tech last week. UTSA has won outright as a double-digit ‘dog at Middle Tennessee (45-25) and vs. So. Miss (55-32).

-- Arkansas is a short underdog at Mississippi St. The Hogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road ‘dog. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 20-13 ATS as home favorites on Dan Mullen’s watch.

-- Kentucky will become bowl eligible with a victory over winless Austin Peay. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven outings.

Announcement

NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

NCAAF Betting Info 11/19

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