NCAAF Betting Info 11/17

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ACC Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams


2016 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 4-6 1-6 3-6-1 4-6
Clemson 9-1 6-1 5-5 4-6
Duke 4-6 1-5 7-3 2-8
Florida State 7-3 4-3 5-4 5-4
Georgia Tech 6-4 3-4 4-4-1 5-3-1
Louisville 9-1 7-1 5-4-1 7-3
Miami (Fla.) 6-4 3-3 6-4 5-5
North Carolina 7-3 5-2 6-4 4-6
North Carolina State 5-5 2-4 7-3 4-5-1
Pittsburgh 6-4 3-3 4-6 9-1
Syracuse 4-6 2-4 4-6 2-8
Virginia 2-8 1-5 4-5-1 3-6-1
Virginia Tech 7-3 5-2 4-6 5-5
Wake Forest 6-4 3-3 6-4 4-6




Louisville at Houston (Thurs. - ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Louisville, newly ranked No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings, steps out of conference to face Houston. Remember earlier in the season many figured this would be a huge game for Louisville, as Houston was expected to be ranked and perhaps unbeaten by this point? Well, Houston failed to live up to their end of the bargain with losses at Navy and at SMU. The Cougars have failed to cover in five straight entering this contest, and this game could get away from them if they play like they did in their past two wins against UCF and Tulane. Louisville might have been caught looking ahead last week against Wake Forest, as they looked very sluggish until the fourth quarter when they came alive and outscored Wake 34-0 to win 44-12. But the score is certainly not indicative of how close the game was for about 45-50 minutes. Louisville is 1-2-1 ATS in their past four road outings, and 2-4 ATS in their past six games overall.

[TheGame]

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/17

Cards, Cougars hook up


Thursday College Football Betting Preview
Louisville Cardinals vs. Houston Cougars


Odds: Louisville (-14); Total set at 69.5


Thanks to one of the wildest college football Saturday's we've seen in years where #2, #3, and #4 in the rankings all lost outright, the one-loss Louisville Cardinals are definitely back in the mix to make the playoffs. Louisville started off extremely slow last week as they trailed Wake Forest by a 12-3 score at half (Louisville was -34.5), but got their act together in the second half and ended up winning 44-12.


That final score made the game look like more of a blowout than it really was, but with all the upsets around the nation on Saturday, Louisville was happy to get the win and survive.


Louisville has a much tougher test ahead of them on Thursday night as they go to Houston to play the 8-2 SU Cougars. Houston has not lost at home all year long (6-0 SU) and upset this same Cardinals team as 13.5-point underdogs on Louisville's home field a year ago.


QB Lamar Jackson was sharing time at QB during that game, but his stat line of 1 TD and 2 INT passing, and 12 rushes for 16 yards likely saw him take fewer snaps then he would have liked. This year it's obviously a different story with Jackson as he should end up winning the Heisman Trophy, and the Cardinals are going to need a Heisman-type performance out of him this week if they want to win and survive again.


Both of these teams have high-powered offenses that can score in a hurry when they are on, and with Houston QB Greg Ward Jr likely to play through a sore shoulder here, we could very well have a shootout on our hands.


Louisville's offense started to hit their stride in the second half last week and hopefully for Cardinals fans that carries over to Thursday. Louisville started the year on a tear offensively putting up 70, 62, 63, and 59 points in their first four games, but since then they've only topped the 50-point mark twice.


Chances are they won't need to score that many to survive this showdown, but 40+ is definitely a reasonable number that Louisville has to be shooting for. They really feel like turnovers at critical points in the game last year (2 Ints and 2 fumbles lost) cost them the W and they aren't about to make the same mistake again this season.


Houston has a decent offense as well as they had a stretch of five straight games of 40 or more points earlier this season but have cooled off a bit since then. With the decreased point production by the offense, the losing ATS results have followed as the Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games, and have gone 'under' the total in three straight.


Obviously part of that is the fact that QB Greg Ward Jr has been battling injuries, but healthy or not they are going to need him to get back to scoring around 40 points this week to give themselves a shot.


Therefore, rather than looking at the side in this game, it's the total that caught my eye as it seems a few points too low. Last year's meeting finished with 65 points and that was in spite of five combined turnovers between the two teams. Both offenses were moving up and down the field on one another (25 first downs apiece) and it's not hard to argue that both QB's are much better then they were a year ago.


Louisville is on a 8-1 O/U run away from home and are 9-3 O/U when coming off a win. That road mark gets even better when facing a winning team at home as the Cardinals are 4-0 O/U in their last four tries in that scenario, and they've got a 9-4 O/U mark in their last 13 Thursday games. Houston doesn't seem to mind the short week either as they are 9-3 O/U on Thursdays, and are 35-17-1 O/U after allowing less than 20 points last time out.


This is one of those “statement game” opportunities for Louisville to make their case as a playoff team and if they are going to make a statement like that it's going to be because of Lamar Jackson's stellar play. Houston has to figure that they won't be able to stop Jackson and the Cardinals offense, simply do their best to contain them, and hope their own offensive unit puts up big numbers as well. Either way we should see a back-and-forth contest here with plenty of points.


Best Bet: Over 69.5

[TheGame]

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/17

Louisville at Houston
By Joe Nelson


Early in the season many thought this late season non-conference matchup between Houston and Louisville would have huge national implications.


Louisville fell short against Clemson to sit outside of the ACC’s championship picture and Houston’s season has unraveled after grabbing headlines in the first month of the season.


Both teams still have a lot at stake in this intriguing Thursday night ESPN battle to kick off a big college football weekend.


Matchup: Louisville Cardinals at Houston Cougars
Venue: TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 17, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Louisville -14, Over/Under 68
Last Meeting: 2015, Houston (+13½) 34, at Louisville 31


Coming off a 13-1 campaign with an AAC championship and a Peach Bowl win over Florida State expectations were very high for a Houston squad that was almost universally projected to be the top ‘Group of 5’ squad nationally looking for a Cotton Bowl spot and they were considered an outside threat at even making the College Football Playoff. The Cougars lived up to that billing early in the season with a big win over Oklahoma in the opening weekend and then won at Cincinnati in primetime to open the conference season in what looked like one of the most important games of the AAC season.


With a 5-0 start Houston was already ranked #6 in the AP Poll and it seemed to be a foregone conclusion that the Cougars would run away with the AAC title meaning this November non-conference game with Louisville would determine whether or not Houston could potentially get the call to an even bigger stage in the bowl season.


The Cougars were stunned with a turnover-filled performance at Navy in early October with a 46-40 result and in an instant almost all of the season goals went up in smoke as Navy was now the team to beat in the AAC West. Houston would go on to lose again at SMU with a shocking 38-16 result to effectively end any hopes of winning the division title. At 8-2 the Cougars are still having a fine season but two difficult games remain with this non-conference test vs. Louisville and next week’s finale at Memphis.


Senior quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. opened the season as a potential Heisman Trophy sleeper and his great game vs. Oklahoma made that look like a serious possibility. He missed the game with Lamar with a shoulder injury and that injury was aggravated in last week’s win over Tulane for Houston’s homecoming. Ward has been cleared to play this week but his back-up Kyle Postma was also injured last week and has been ruled out for the season as freshman D’Eriq King will be next in line if Ward has any setbacks.


The other big storyline for Houston is head coach Tom Herman, who early in the season was universally acclaimed as the top major conference head coaching candidate with last season’s success in his first season in Houston and the great start to this season. Herman certainly feels like a long shot to be back with the Cougars next season and rumors of taking over at Texas this off-season seem to have some traction. That has possibly been a distraction for the team in what has been a disappointing run in the middle of the season with the Cougars riding a 0-5 ATS run in the last five games.


Houston is 5-0 S/U at home this season not counting the opener vs. Oklahoma that was played in Houston but at NRG Stadium. The Cougars went 8-0 S/U at home last season but that run will be put to a major test Thursday night. Last season Houston faced Louisville in the second week of the season and got the upset posting 462 yards with great balance and taking advantage of four Louisville turnovers while also getting a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown in the third quarter. That game also came off a very tough opening loss for the Cardinals who played tight with then #6 ranked Auburn with Louisville also looking at a huge ACC opener with Clemson coming up the following Thursday night as the scheduling situation may have helped spark the upset in what clearly was a huge game for Houston.


This season Louisville opened ranked #19 in the preseason AP poll but was considered to be a clear step behind Florida State and Clemson in the ACC Atlantic picture. The Cardinals scored 132 point in the first two games of the season vs. marginal competition and then made a loud statement in the ACC opener crushing then #2 ranked Florida State 63-20. That win propelled the Cardinals to #3 in the AP Poll and Lamar Jackson jumped onto the Heisman Trophy shortlist.


Louisville used three different quarterbacks last season and through some ups-and-downs Jackson emerged as the best option, providing a great threat on the ground to offset inconsistent results in the air. After starting last season 0-3 Louisville wound up 8-5 closing the season with a Music City Bowl win over Texas A&M. Few saw the huge 2016 season from Jackson coming as he was once a 100/1 candidate and now 1/50 is a common price in what is likely to be one of the least surprising Heisman votes in several years. Jackson has rushed for over 1,300 yards with 19 touchdowns while throwing for 27 more though he is completing just 58 percent of his passes and has had some inconsistent stretches.


Louisville’s schedule has been very weak overall and as such the 9-1 Cardinals find themselves on the outside looking in for the current College Football Playoff rankings that were released Tuesday night. Many projected Louisville would move into the top four after all the upsets last week but Louisville is sitting at #5 and the Clemson team that handed the Cardinals their only loss is ahead of them. The Clemson/Louisville game was one of the best games of the season that could have gone either way but Clemson ultimately won that game and they will get to play in the ACC Championship unless they lose to Wake Forest this week.


Louisville can assume Alabama will stay in the top four and the Big Ten will sort itself out with one candidate emerging as moving into the top four is still a realistic possibility even though two teams making the field from the same division will be a new precedent in the short history of the playoff. The Cardinals would be at risk to potentially be passed in the final rankings if a clear Big XII or Pac-12 champion emerges and the Big Ten has some scenarios where two teams would be considered as well. This game with Houston will be the last opportunity for Louisville to make its case to the committee as next week’s game with Kentucky won’t carry as much weight and Louisville will most likely be idle on championship weekend while other candidates will have an opportunity to make a case.


For both Houston and Louisville this game carries a great deal of importance and this is certainly one of the more intriguing Thursday night college football games of the season. While Houston has much less at stake than they hoped, Herman and the Cougars have proven themselves in big games the past two seasons and Houston has an elite run defense that has allowed just 93 yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry to counter the impressive rushing attack for the Cardinals. As dominant has Louisville’s season numbers are they have had several close calls this season with narrow escapes vs. Duke and Virginia in ACC play and they even trailed last week in the 4th quarter despite pulling away for a 44-12 final vs. Wake Forest.


Historical Trends:


-- Louisville is 7-5 S/U but 5-7 ATS in this series going back to 1984, failing to cover in both recent meetings with a 20-13 home win in 2013 and a 34-31 home loss early last season.


-- Louisville is just 15-29-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite going back to 2007 including going 4-8-1 ATS on the road, though 2-1-1 in four instances this season.


-- Houston is 14-1 ATS as an underdog going back to November of 2012 posting eight S/U upsets in that span including going 5-0 S/U and ATS as an underdog since winning the Armed Forces Bowl after the 2014 season.


-- This line is poised to be the highest underdog spread for Houston since the 2013 meeting at Louisville and the biggest home underdog spread since hosting Louisville in 2004.


-- Houston has won S/U in 14 consecutive home games though they are just 5-9 ATS in that run though often playing as a heavy favorite.


-- Louisville is on a 25-15-2 ATS run in road games though going just 3-5-1 ATS in the last nine instances and covering in just one of the past four road games this season.

[TheGame]

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/17

Preview: Louisville Cardinals (9-1) at Houston Cougars (8-2)
By Brett Nault
Thursday, November 17, 2016 at 8:00 pm (TDECU Stadium)
The Line: Louisville Cardinals -14 - Over/Under:
TV: ESPN


The 6th ranked Louisville Cardinals will travel to TDECU Stadium to take on the Houston Cougars this Thursday night in College Football action.


The 6th ranked Louisville Cardinals won their 5th straight game and improved to 9-1 (7-1 AAC) on the season after defeating the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 44-12, this past Saturday. Louisville was down by a 12-3 margin at halftime however, scored 34 points in the 4th quarter to help pull away from Wake Forest. Louisville outgained Wake Forest by a 491-214 margin and rushed from an incredible 346 yards. Leading the way for the Cardinals was RB Brandon Radcliff who had 3 TD’s and 141 rushing yards on 11 carries. On the season, Louisville is averaging 49.6 ppg on 583.2 yards per game (313.2 passing, 270.0 rushing). Offensively, Louisville is led by Heisman Trophy favorite, Lamar Jackson who has accounted for a remarkable 46 TD’s (27 passing; 19 rushing). Jackson is averaging 289.8 passing yds/g and is the Cardinals leading rushing at 133.4 rushing yds/g. RB Brandon Radcliff (10.7 att/g, 76.8 yds/g, 6 TD) and RB Jeremy Smith (4.4 att/g, 30.8 yds/g, 7 TD) have been major contributors in the Cardinals backfield. James Quick (3.6 rec/g, 60.8 yds/g, 6 TD), Jamari Staples (3.4 rec/g, 52.6 yds/g, 2 TD), Cole Hikutini (3.8 rec/g, 52.6 yds/g, 6 TD), and Jaylen Smith (2.2 rec/g, 48.7 yds/g, 6 TD) are the leading receivers for Louisville. Defensively, Louisville is holding their opponents to an average of 21.3 ppg on 303.3 total yards per game (210.5 passing, 92.8 rushing).


The Houston Cougars won their 2nd straight game and improved to 8-2 (5-2 AAC) on the season after defeating the Tulane Green Wave, 30-18, this past Saturday. Houston used a big 1st half to take a 28-10 lead at halftime and was able to hold on for the victory without scoring any offensive points in the 2nd half. Houston was outgained by Tulane by a 341-287 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin. Leading the way for the Cougars was QB Greg Ward Jr. who completed 18 of 30 passes for 189 yards and 2 TD’s while also adding a rushing TD. On the season, Houston is averaging 37.6 ppg on 452.4 total yards per game (283.8 passing, 168.6 rushing). Offensively, Houston has been led by QB Greg Ward Jr. who has accounted for 25 TD’s (16 passing, 9 rushing). Ward Jr. is averaging 289.8 passing yds/g and 47.7 rushing yds/g. Duke Catalon has been the main threat in the backfield for the Cougars and has 2 TD’s while averaging 68.5 rushing yds/g. Linell Bonner (7.6 rec/g, 86.0 yds/g, 2 TD), Chance Allen (4.4 rec/g, 63.7 yds/g, 3 TD), and Steven Dunbar (4.3 rec/g, 58.5 yds/g, 5 TD) are biggest threats at the receiver position for Houston. Defensively, Houston is holding their opponents to an average of 21.3 ppg on 303.3 total yards per game (210.5 passing, 92.8 rushing).


The Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 29-13-1 ATS in their last43 road games. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. ACC opponents however, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.


Louisville surprisingly couldn’t get their explosive offense going until the 4th quarter against Wake Forest however, the Cardinals did show how dangerous this team can be with Lamar Jackson leading the way. Houston enters this game with a solid 8-2 record however, the Cougars just don’t seem to have the same energy as they did at the beginning of the season and has struggle getting convincing wins against some of bottom teams of the AAC. This line has yet to be released but I’m currently leaning towards taking Louisville to cover a reasonable spread here as I think Cardinals will come out playing hard in this one knowing that their right back in the CFF Playoff picture once again.

[TheGame]

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/17

Preview and Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-4) at Troy Trojans (8-1)
By David Racey
Thursday, November 17, 2016 at 9:30 pm (Veterans Memorial Stadium)
The Line: Troy Trojans -9 -- Over/Under:
TV: ESPNU


The Arkansas State Red Wolves will travel to play the Troy Trojans in a Sun Belt college football game on Thursday night.


The Troy Trojans are 8-1 (5-0) this season after beating Appalachian State by a score of 28-24 in their last game. Troy is tied for the Sun Belt Conference lead with Arkansas State this season. The Troy offense is averaging 38.1 points per game with 197.4 rushing yards and 276.6 passing yards per game. Brandon Silvers is completing 63.5% of his passes for 2302 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions for Troy. Jordan Chunn has rushed for 1028 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Josh Anderson has added 221 yards and 1 touchdown for Troy. Deondre Douglas has caught 49 passes for 532 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Emanuel Thompson has added 49 catches for 470 yards and 5 scores for the Trojans. The Troy defense is giving up 21.6 points per game with 105.4 rushing yards and 265.1 passing yards per game. William Lloyd has led the Troy defense with 43 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 1 sack, while Cedarius Rookard has added 33 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 2 interceptions. Ryan Kay has gone 14-18 on field goals, with a long of 47 yards.


The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 5-4 (5-0) this season after beating New Mexico State by a score of 41-22 in their last game. Arkansas State has won 5 straight games and is tied for the lead in the Sun Belt standings. The Arkansas State offense is averaging 26 points per game with 243.4 passing yards and 137.9 rushing yards per game. Justice Hansen is completing 58.5% of his passes for 1793 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions for Arkansas State. Warren Wand has rushed for 607 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Johnston White has added 356 yards and 3 scores for the Red Wolves. Blake Mack has caught 29 passes for 522 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Warren Wand has added 18 passes for 207 yards and 3 touchdowns for Arkansas State. The Arkansas State defense is giving up 25 points per game with 181.1 rushing yards and 230.3 passing yards per game. Xavier Woodson-Luster has led the Arkansas State defense with 68 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss, while Money Hunter has added 59 tackles and 1 interception. J.D. Houston has gone 9-14 on field goals, with a long of 43 yards.


Arkansas State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. The under is 5-1-1 in Arkansas State’s last 7 games. Troy is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. The under is 6-1-1 in Troy’s last 8 conference games. The over is 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings.


These teams come into this game battling for the lead in the conference standings. Troy will have the advantage of being at home and having the better record, but Arkansas State has been red hot in their last 5 games. Troy looks to have the better offense and I think that will be the difference in this game.


DAVID'S PICK
Troy Trojans -9

[TheGame]

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/17

Tech Trends - Week 12
By Bruce Marshall


Thursday, Nov. 17


LOUISVILLE at HOUSTON... UH won LY at Papa John’s 34-31, and Cougs 7-0-1 as dog since 2014, 11-1-1 since 2013. Though UH no covers last 5 TY and 0-4-1 vs. line at TDECU Stadium. Just 5-12-1 vs. line at new stadium since 2014. Petrino has only covered 2 of last 6 TY.


Slight to Houston, based on team trends.




ARKANSAS STATE at TROY...Red Wolves rolling again with wins and covers last four TY, they also closed fast in 2015 when covering 6 of last 7. Ark St 23-9 vs. spread last seven games of reg season since 2012. Also 5-1 last six as Sun Belt dog.


Arkansas State, based on recent trends.

[TheGame]

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/17

NCAAF


Thursday’s games


Louisville won its last five games since Clemson loss by average score of 41-14; Cardinals were upset 34-31 at home by Houston LY- they beat Cougars 20-13 in ’13- this is their first visit here since 2004. Cardinals are 3-2 as road favorites this year, with wins by 34-31-7-45 points, plus the 42-36 loss at Clemson. Houston started season by upsetting Oklahoma, but later lost at Navy, SMU and is 0-5 vs spread in its last five games. Cougars passed for 320+ yards in five of first six games, but have been under 260 in last four. ACC non-conference road favorites are 5-3 vs spread; AAC home underdogs are 3-4.


Troy is 8-1, with only loss 30-24 at Clemson; they covered only one of last four games, are 2-2 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 46-10-21-4 points- they had tough 28-24 win over Appalachian State five days ago, while ASU cruised in its game Saturday. Arkansas State won its last three games with Troy, beating Trojans 41-34 in each of last two meetings; teams split last four meetings played here. ASU won/covered its last five games after an 0-4 start, with only road win in that stretch 31-16 (-4.5) at Georgia State. Sun Belt home favorites are 7-11 vs spread in league play this year.