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College Football Plays Week 11
79-64 for the season in college football (+$2,330)
Tuesday November 8th, 2016
$300 E. Michigan/Ball St. under 59.5 LOSER (-330)
$300 W. Michigan -21 (-119) Bought the hook off 21.5, just think it makes sense at the price you pay. Kent is coming off a great effort where they won SU on the road against C. Michigan as DD dogs. The last 22 times a 13 point+ road dog won SU and were 2 TD or more HD their next game they are 4-18 ATS in that situation. This makes sense because, obviously if they are 14 or more point HD they are playing a significantly better team. The fact they just beat a significantly better team (were at least +13 last time) makes it hard for them to play "way over their heads" in back to back games. I know this is a very one-sidedly bet game, but that is the only thing keeping me from hitting this harder. The Broncos are the best team in the MAC and want a New Year's Day bowl. They need to keep winning to make that happen, so they got plenty of motivation to crush Kent. These small MAC schools don't exactly have great home field advantages either, there is actually more value taking road favs in these smaller conferences. This should be a blowout. LOSER (-357)
Wednesday November 11th, 2016
$400 No. Illinois +7 A simple comparison of the lines from the past 2 week's MAC games shows where the line value is for this game. Akron is a 10.5 point favorite tonight hosting Bowling Green, and the line actually opened at Akron -8. Last week NIU was -17 hosting Bowling Green so based on the current lines we can assume Vegas has NIU as a 6.5 point better team than Akron, and if you used the opening line for that Akron game NIU is 9 points better. Last week Toledo was -10 @Akron, so based on either NIU should be +1 or even +just 3.5 just based on those lines. NIU won and covered last week so there would be no reason for NIU to be downgraded. They actually are on an upswing with 2 straight confidence building wins and now see a light at the end of the tunnel for a bowl bid. Toledo actually has all the pressure on them to keep winning or their game against W. Mich will mean nothing. NIU wants to run the ball and that happens to be the Toledo D's weakness. If you watched their only conf. loss to Ohio you know they can't stop it. NIU's offense is VERY similar to Ohio's. Great line value, good situation, they match-up well, heavily bet on the opposite side by the public...what's not to like? PUSH
Thursday November 10th, 2016
$300 UL Lafayette +7.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Arizona St. +6 LOSER (-440)
Saturday November 12th, 2016
$300 C. Florida -12.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 Maryland +29 LOSER (-330)
$300 Indiana +7.5 (-125) LOSER (-375)
$300 Oklahoma St. -12.5 LOSER (-330)
$300 UNLV +7.5 (-120) $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Colorado St. +5.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Miami Fla. -10.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 USC +9 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 UTEP +3 LOSER (-330)
$400 Minnesota +7 PUSH
$300 Memphis +3 (-105) LOSER (-315)
$300 Iowa +21.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
Tuesday November 8th, 2016
$300 E. Michigan/Ball St. under 59.5 LOSER (-330)
$300 W. Michigan -21 (-119) Bought the hook off 21.5, just think it makes sense at the price you pay. Kent is coming off a great effort where they won SU on the road against C. Michigan as DD dogs. The last 22 times a 13 point+ road dog won SU and were 2 TD or more HD their next game they are 4-18 ATS in that situation. This makes sense because, obviously if they are 14 or more point HD they are playing a significantly better team. The fact they just beat a significantly better team (were at least +13 last time) makes it hard for them to play "way over their heads" in back to back games. I know this is a very one-sidedly bet game, but that is the only thing keeping me from hitting this harder. The Broncos are the best team in the MAC and want a New Year's Day bowl. They need to keep winning to make that happen, so they got plenty of motivation to crush Kent. These small MAC schools don't exactly have great home field advantages either, there is actually more value taking road favs in these smaller conferences. This should be a blowout. LOSER (-357)
Wednesday November 11th, 2016
$400 No. Illinois +7 A simple comparison of the lines from the past 2 week's MAC games shows where the line value is for this game. Akron is a 10.5 point favorite tonight hosting Bowling Green, and the line actually opened at Akron -8. Last week NIU was -17 hosting Bowling Green so based on the current lines we can assume Vegas has NIU as a 6.5 point better team than Akron, and if you used the opening line for that Akron game NIU is 9 points better. Last week Toledo was -10 @Akron, so based on either NIU should be +1 or even +just 3.5 just based on those lines. NIU won and covered last week so there would be no reason for NIU to be downgraded. They actually are on an upswing with 2 straight confidence building wins and now see a light at the end of the tunnel for a bowl bid. Toledo actually has all the pressure on them to keep winning or their game against W. Mich will mean nothing. NIU wants to run the ball and that happens to be the Toledo D's weakness. If you watched their only conf. loss to Ohio you know they can't stop it. NIU's offense is VERY similar to Ohio's. Great line value, good situation, they match-up well, heavily bet on the opposite side by the public...what's not to like? PUSH
Thursday November 10th, 2016
$300 UL Lafayette +7.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Arizona St. +6 LOSER (-440)
Saturday November 12th, 2016
$300 C. Florida -12.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 Maryland +29 LOSER (-330)
$300 Indiana +7.5 (-125) LOSER (-375)
$300 Oklahoma St. -12.5 LOSER (-330)
$300 UNLV +7.5 (-120) $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Colorado St. +5.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Miami Fla. -10.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 USC +9 $WINNER$ (+300)
$300 UTEP +3 LOSER (-330)
$400 Minnesota +7 PUSH
$300 Memphis +3 (-105) LOSER (-315)
$300 Iowa +21.5 $WINNER$ (+300)
this weekend!
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