College Football Betting Preview: Northwestern Wildcats at California Golden Bears
By Teddy Covers
SportsMemo.com
Northwestern at California
Saturday, 7:30 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener: Northwestern -3 O/U 58.5
CRIS Current: Northwestern -5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Northwestern -5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Northwestern
When Washington State went from good to mediocre to awful in the PAC-12, it happened rather predictably. Mike Price had success in Pullman, albeit not every year, and he left the cupboard full for his successor, Bill Doba, when Price took the Alabama job. Doba won ten games in his first year, and the Cougars enjoyed their third consecutive top 10 ranking at the close of the season following an upset win over Texas in the Holiday Bowl.
But Doba was not the right hire; unable to recruit (or coach) the way Price did. Washington State quickly went from a top 10 program three years running to a squad that was struggling to reach .500 every year: 5-6, 4-7, 6-6 and 5-7 in Doba’s final four years on the job. Wazzou didn’t enjoy a single winning season ATS as the program declined into mediocrity.
The Cougars gave up on Doba following those four declining seasons and brought Paul Wulff in to transition the team into a wide open spread offense. The results were disastrous. Repeated poor recruiting classes, coupled with an enormous number of injuries and transfers left the program bereft of talent, at the bottom of the BCS Conference world. Wulff went 2-11, 1-11, 2-10 and 4-8 in his four years on the job.
As Wassou was crumbling from mediocre to bottom feeder, they went 8-15-1 ATS in Wulff’s first two years. That extending their streak to SEVEN consecutive .500 or worse seasons ATS before a 7-5 ATS mark in 2010, when Wassou was catching three TD’s or more in 2/3 of their games.
What does all of this have to do with Cal’s opening night game at Northwestern? Simple – Cal might be the next Washington State! I don’t expect the drop-off to be quite as dramatic – there’s more talent on the Bears roster than there’s been on any Washington State roster in the last eight years. It’s easier to recruit kids to Berkeley that includes a recently upgraded Memorial Stadium than it is to get them to leave home for Pullman. But the trend lines are certainly comparable.
Jeff Tedford enjoyed great success with the Bears early in his tenure. He was a hot prospect, coveted by NFL teams as well as true blueblood college programs. But after peaking with a 10-win, ‘tied for the PAC-10 title’ season in 2006, slowly, but surely, the Cal program started to decline. The Tedford era ended with 5-7, 7-6 and 3-9 campaigns; and last year’s 3-9 ATS debacle could be a harbinger of things to come.
Sonny Dykes had great success running the spread offense at Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs won nine games last year, averaging 51.5 points and 578 yards per game; leading the nation in both categories. But Dykes first year at LaTech wasn’t nearly as pretty: 27 points per game on 390 yards of offense in a 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS season. It’s worth noting that against WAC competition, the Bulldogs won only as a favorite that year – beating the teams they were supposed to beat, but unable to step up in class.
Dykes is installing the same spread offense at Cal with new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. New defensive coordinator Andy Buh has switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense this year, forcing several linebackers to convert to defensive end in the offseason. And there’s an entirely new staff of assistants, a complete coaching housecleaning.
Dykes is starting true frosh quarterback Jared Goff in the season opener against Northwestern. This team lacks senior leadership, with only 12 seniors on the roster. Dykes: “We’re a very young team that’s playing a very difficult schedule. If you’re on the outside of our program and you’re looking at Cal football, it doesn’t look very good.” I agree with that quote 100%!
Northwestern went 10-3 SU, 11-1-1 ATS last year, an under-the-radar pointspread machine. That included straight up road wins at Michigan State, Syracuse and Minnesota. They won three road games in 2011 as well, including an impressive upset at Nebraska. Two experienced quarterbacks – Kain Colter, a dangerous running threat and Trevor Siemian, an effective downfield passer – give the new Bears’ defense multiple looks to worry about. The Wildcats defense held opponents to 22 points per game last year and their front seven is loaded once again.
Bottom line? There’s a class difference between these two teams that isn’t fully reflected in this pointspread. Even in a late night West Coast game like this one (situational advantage for Cal), don’t expect miracles from the Bears in their first game under Dykes against a Big Ten contender like the Wildcats.
By Teddy Covers
SportsMemo.com
Northwestern at California
Saturday, 7:30 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener: Northwestern -3 O/U 58.5
CRIS Current: Northwestern -5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Northwestern -5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Northwestern
When Washington State went from good to mediocre to awful in the PAC-12, it happened rather predictably. Mike Price had success in Pullman, albeit not every year, and he left the cupboard full for his successor, Bill Doba, when Price took the Alabama job. Doba won ten games in his first year, and the Cougars enjoyed their third consecutive top 10 ranking at the close of the season following an upset win over Texas in the Holiday Bowl.
But Doba was not the right hire; unable to recruit (or coach) the way Price did. Washington State quickly went from a top 10 program three years running to a squad that was struggling to reach .500 every year: 5-6, 4-7, 6-6 and 5-7 in Doba’s final four years on the job. Wazzou didn’t enjoy a single winning season ATS as the program declined into mediocrity.
The Cougars gave up on Doba following those four declining seasons and brought Paul Wulff in to transition the team into a wide open spread offense. The results were disastrous. Repeated poor recruiting classes, coupled with an enormous number of injuries and transfers left the program bereft of talent, at the bottom of the BCS Conference world. Wulff went 2-11, 1-11, 2-10 and 4-8 in his four years on the job.
As Wassou was crumbling from mediocre to bottom feeder, they went 8-15-1 ATS in Wulff’s first two years. That extending their streak to SEVEN consecutive .500 or worse seasons ATS before a 7-5 ATS mark in 2010, when Wassou was catching three TD’s or more in 2/3 of their games.
What does all of this have to do with Cal’s opening night game at Northwestern? Simple – Cal might be the next Washington State! I don’t expect the drop-off to be quite as dramatic – there’s more talent on the Bears roster than there’s been on any Washington State roster in the last eight years. It’s easier to recruit kids to Berkeley that includes a recently upgraded Memorial Stadium than it is to get them to leave home for Pullman. But the trend lines are certainly comparable.
Jeff Tedford enjoyed great success with the Bears early in his tenure. He was a hot prospect, coveted by NFL teams as well as true blueblood college programs. But after peaking with a 10-win, ‘tied for the PAC-10 title’ season in 2006, slowly, but surely, the Cal program started to decline. The Tedford era ended with 5-7, 7-6 and 3-9 campaigns; and last year’s 3-9 ATS debacle could be a harbinger of things to come.
Sonny Dykes had great success running the spread offense at Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs won nine games last year, averaging 51.5 points and 578 yards per game; leading the nation in both categories. But Dykes first year at LaTech wasn’t nearly as pretty: 27 points per game on 390 yards of offense in a 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS season. It’s worth noting that against WAC competition, the Bulldogs won only as a favorite that year – beating the teams they were supposed to beat, but unable to step up in class.
Dykes is installing the same spread offense at Cal with new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. New defensive coordinator Andy Buh has switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense this year, forcing several linebackers to convert to defensive end in the offseason. And there’s an entirely new staff of assistants, a complete coaching housecleaning.
Dykes is starting true frosh quarterback Jared Goff in the season opener against Northwestern. This team lacks senior leadership, with only 12 seniors on the roster. Dykes: “We’re a very young team that’s playing a very difficult schedule. If you’re on the outside of our program and you’re looking at Cal football, it doesn’t look very good.” I agree with that quote 100%!
Northwestern went 10-3 SU, 11-1-1 ATS last year, an under-the-radar pointspread machine. That included straight up road wins at Michigan State, Syracuse and Minnesota. They won three road games in 2011 as well, including an impressive upset at Nebraska. Two experienced quarterbacks – Kain Colter, a dangerous running threat and Trevor Siemian, an effective downfield passer – give the new Bears’ defense multiple looks to worry about. The Wildcats defense held opponents to 22 points per game last year and their front seven is loaded once again.
Bottom line? There’s a class difference between these two teams that isn’t fully reflected in this pointspread. Even in a late night West Coast game like this one (situational advantage for Cal), don’t expect miracles from the Bears in their first game under Dykes against a Big Ten contender like the Wildcats.
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