Week One CFB Thoughts
By Dave Essler
UMass-Wisconsin: OK, a line of 45 and a total of 53. I guess they figure that UMass won't score. Correlated play here, perhaps. With the Badgers have T-Tech the following week, this one has 48-3 written all over it. Badgers bring back way too many starters to think to much about taking those points, and UMass brings back nobody, basically. I thought about taking those points given that UMass at least PLAYED in Ann Arbor.
Central Michigan-Michigan: Opened in places at 34.5 and down now to 31.5 or so. People probably suspect that Michigan will take it easy w/Notre Dame in week two, and I suspect that they will. However, CMU has some serious issues and after that Outback Bowl loss, I suspect the Wolverines are not going to screw around much here, and CMU may not score.
Buffalo-Ohio State: Buffalo's defense is one of the better ones, if there is such a thing, in the MAC, and they bring most everyone back. Under rated team early, IMO. However, the Buckeyes have something to play for now. They played UGA pretty tough last year in week one, and clearly with the Miller hype there's points built into this line. With a total of 56 they're clearly expecting Buffalo to score.
La Tech-NC State: With a big total like that you'd have to think NC State could cover this. Line hovered either side of 14, and I actually think the Wolfpack will not be as bad as some think, losing their QB. They've got transfers and experience, and a better than average (for the ACC) defense. La Tech brings back nobody from a team that could score on anyone but had no defense. NC State could cover this, and if I were them I'd worry more about Richmond (ATS) the following week.
FIU-Maryland: What has happened to Coach Cristobals' team and bright future. I get that losing a 28 year old quarterback and TY Hilton has an effect, but to be 20 point dogs to Maryland is saying something. I know the Terps bring back a lot of people, but they just didn't have an overly viable offense last year. However, Edsell should have them that much better, and this may be a big number for a reason. With a total of 50, I do lean Terps with their renewed enthusiasm.
Northern Illinois-Iowa: Nothern Illinois brings back far too many people and their QB not to be considered here. The very fact that they are only +3 on the road to an Big Ten team pretty much sums that up. Their only regular season loss last year was to these guys, at home, by one. Iowa brings back a lot of a decent defense, no offense, team. Low scoring game that Northern Illinois could win.
Temple-Notre Dame: Irish by more than four touchdowns with a total of 50. So, are they saying Temple finds a way to score, or that the Irish name the score. With Michigan in week two, the Owls do bring back a lot of people from a team that wasn't as bad as their record indicated last year, and only two years removed from "very good". Not laying those points here.
BYU-Virginia: One of the better, potentially, matchups this week. I know how good BYU can be. What I do worry about here is that it's going to be hot and humid here, and that's certainly not what Utah is like. Given that UVA is breaking in a new QB, I lean to the under in this one, and almost because of the weather, like BYU 1H and perhaps UVA 2H if the score is right.
Troy-UAB: This is not your father's Troy team that could and did score at will, and they bring back nobody. If this were in UAB I'd have to think that UAB would be favored, so all tradition aside, I like UAB here. Most likely the last team with the ball wins, but 64 is a lot of points for teams with so few returning starters. Troy beat them 39-29 at UAB last year, and I think UAB returns the favor here.
Cincinnati-Purdue: Line opens at about 7 and total disrespect for a Big Ten team since it's now -10. Honestly, I do not know how Purdue is going to score much this year, or any year since Drew Brees left. Bearcats bring back almost their entire offense, and a team that took Louisville to OT on the road (if memory is right) last year. I guess the only real question here is if the line has gone too far. Honestly, I think 49 points is probably too many, if for no other reason than Cincinnati plays at Illinois the following week, which I suppose could leave the back door open. Nah.
Kentucky-WKU: Total disrespect for Kentucky here. Line opens at -7 or so on the road and now down to -4.5 or so. I know Kentucky is simply not an SEC team, and they DID beat Kentucky last season in Rupp Arena. OK, on the football field. WKU has the Vols in Knoxville in week two. Hilltoppers actually had a closed practice today. I didn't know Sun Belt teams actually did that. I suppose there's a reason this line is where it is, and the game is actually in Nashville, at LP Field. If Kentucky loses this game (they might) they should get kicked out of the SEC.
Miami (OH)-Marshall: This is not Matthew McConaughey's Marshall team, and I just don't know how they're 20 point favorites to too many people. But, they do bring back most everyone from an offense that was first in the nation in passing yards. However, they DO lose Antavious Wilson and Aaron Dobson, they second and third leading receivers. And Miami (OH) couldn't stop anyone last year, and is breaking in a new QB, so perhaps the Herd do roll here.
Mississippi State-Oklahoma State: Griff? I happen to think the Cowboys do win this game going away. It's in Houston, so there may be a few MSU fans that make the trip, but this game means much more to Gundy and the Cowboys. Beating an SEC team on national TV, soundly, is not something they'll disregard here.
By Dave Essler
UMass-Wisconsin: OK, a line of 45 and a total of 53. I guess they figure that UMass won't score. Correlated play here, perhaps. With the Badgers have T-Tech the following week, this one has 48-3 written all over it. Badgers bring back way too many starters to think to much about taking those points, and UMass brings back nobody, basically. I thought about taking those points given that UMass at least PLAYED in Ann Arbor.
Central Michigan-Michigan: Opened in places at 34.5 and down now to 31.5 or so. People probably suspect that Michigan will take it easy w/Notre Dame in week two, and I suspect that they will. However, CMU has some serious issues and after that Outback Bowl loss, I suspect the Wolverines are not going to screw around much here, and CMU may not score.
Buffalo-Ohio State: Buffalo's defense is one of the better ones, if there is such a thing, in the MAC, and they bring most everyone back. Under rated team early, IMO. However, the Buckeyes have something to play for now. They played UGA pretty tough last year in week one, and clearly with the Miller hype there's points built into this line. With a total of 56 they're clearly expecting Buffalo to score.
La Tech-NC State: With a big total like that you'd have to think NC State could cover this. Line hovered either side of 14, and I actually think the Wolfpack will not be as bad as some think, losing their QB. They've got transfers and experience, and a better than average (for the ACC) defense. La Tech brings back nobody from a team that could score on anyone but had no defense. NC State could cover this, and if I were them I'd worry more about Richmond (ATS) the following week.
FIU-Maryland: What has happened to Coach Cristobals' team and bright future. I get that losing a 28 year old quarterback and TY Hilton has an effect, but to be 20 point dogs to Maryland is saying something. I know the Terps bring back a lot of people, but they just didn't have an overly viable offense last year. However, Edsell should have them that much better, and this may be a big number for a reason. With a total of 50, I do lean Terps with their renewed enthusiasm.
Northern Illinois-Iowa: Nothern Illinois brings back far too many people and their QB not to be considered here. The very fact that they are only +3 on the road to an Big Ten team pretty much sums that up. Their only regular season loss last year was to these guys, at home, by one. Iowa brings back a lot of a decent defense, no offense, team. Low scoring game that Northern Illinois could win.
Temple-Notre Dame: Irish by more than four touchdowns with a total of 50. So, are they saying Temple finds a way to score, or that the Irish name the score. With Michigan in week two, the Owls do bring back a lot of people from a team that wasn't as bad as their record indicated last year, and only two years removed from "very good". Not laying those points here.
BYU-Virginia: One of the better, potentially, matchups this week. I know how good BYU can be. What I do worry about here is that it's going to be hot and humid here, and that's certainly not what Utah is like. Given that UVA is breaking in a new QB, I lean to the under in this one, and almost because of the weather, like BYU 1H and perhaps UVA 2H if the score is right.
Troy-UAB: This is not your father's Troy team that could and did score at will, and they bring back nobody. If this were in UAB I'd have to think that UAB would be favored, so all tradition aside, I like UAB here. Most likely the last team with the ball wins, but 64 is a lot of points for teams with so few returning starters. Troy beat them 39-29 at UAB last year, and I think UAB returns the favor here.
Cincinnati-Purdue: Line opens at about 7 and total disrespect for a Big Ten team since it's now -10. Honestly, I do not know how Purdue is going to score much this year, or any year since Drew Brees left. Bearcats bring back almost their entire offense, and a team that took Louisville to OT on the road (if memory is right) last year. I guess the only real question here is if the line has gone too far. Honestly, I think 49 points is probably too many, if for no other reason than Cincinnati plays at Illinois the following week, which I suppose could leave the back door open. Nah.
Kentucky-WKU: Total disrespect for Kentucky here. Line opens at -7 or so on the road and now down to -4.5 or so. I know Kentucky is simply not an SEC team, and they DID beat Kentucky last season in Rupp Arena. OK, on the football field. WKU has the Vols in Knoxville in week two. Hilltoppers actually had a closed practice today. I didn't know Sun Belt teams actually did that. I suppose there's a reason this line is where it is, and the game is actually in Nashville, at LP Field. If Kentucky loses this game (they might) they should get kicked out of the SEC.
Miami (OH)-Marshall: This is not Matthew McConaughey's Marshall team, and I just don't know how they're 20 point favorites to too many people. But, they do bring back most everyone from an offense that was first in the nation in passing yards. However, they DO lose Antavious Wilson and Aaron Dobson, they second and third leading receivers. And Miami (OH) couldn't stop anyone last year, and is breaking in a new QB, so perhaps the Herd do roll here.
Mississippi State-Oklahoma State: Griff? I happen to think the Cowboys do win this game going away. It's in Houston, so there may be a few MSU fans that make the trip, but this game means much more to Gundy and the Cowboys. Beating an SEC team on national TV, soundly, is not something they'll disregard here.
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