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This is always a fun time of the year.
Gamblers are pumped, bookies are pumped, and all touts are pumped.
They (Touts) get to spin a new web as newcomers, and chalk players come in with wallets wide open. I think a lot of the touts that play heavy favorites do so for two reasons. They hope the other person on the end of the line (or screen) loves favorites as well. So when they lose by a kneel down at the 2 or that late garbage TD you both can say man we should have had that one. "It was the right side". The other reason is it's a mental thing, because you feel much better when he is giving you something they you can relate to rather than a bunch of dogs that have to fight to hang on.
Hey we all love when our team BOATS the other team. As bettor's "easy wins" are what we crave. Unfortunately a good majority of games come down to one possession. Other sayings you hear or say will be; "You'll get them next week", or how about "It's a grind not a sprint"? Then when they happen to go 5-1 they'll climb the highest ladder and yell for attention. I'm not immune to those services. In fact they feed off me from when I first started betting in 1988 till 1990, and I'd guess many of others on sports forums around the net have had the same experiences. I really thought there were such things as inside info, and the books "know" something. You'll waste too much energy thinking about things like that, and that's not worth your time.
In 1991 I told myself that if I'm going to lose doing this it will be because of my picks not from someone else. Hey there are a tiny handful of services out there that can win and may even actually bet their own games, but they're few and far between. One thing I've seen before is that if you can always beat the closer and win; the books will either lower your bet size to little or nothing, or cut you off completely.
A Book I recommend reading that was based off a true story is called "The Smart Money". It's a great read, and deals in truths not lies and myths. As a sports gambler you'll enjoy it.
Folks it's tough as shit to beat 11/10 odds, and if anyone tells you they can hit better than 55% to buy their picks I'd just about guarantee they're telling you a lie. If you can afford or want to buy picks than I guess that's up to you, but at least be sure to bet enough to cover the cost of the picks. Your guy may win, and I hope he does for your sake so make sure you cover their cost.
That said I win some I lose some, but one thing I can guarantee the wagers that I win or lose are from my own handicapping. It's just so much more fun for me that way.
Best of fortune to you all, and are here is what I've wagered on so far.
North Carolina +2 (Thursday)
Michigan +5.5 (Thursday)
Hawaii +8 (Thursday)
Arizona State +3
BYU +6.5
Texas +9.5
Added
Boise State -12 (Friday)
UCLA -19.5
Oklahoma -31
USC -27
Added
West Virginia -19.5
Adding...
Penn State -6.5
Kentucky -17
I don't enjoy doing many write ups anymore, but every now and then I spit out some stuff for the heck of it.
UNC brings back a lot on offense, and while they've had bad press in the athletic department I think they have a solid coaching staff. For the second year in a row Spurrier has to find a new QB. Their defense was atrocious last year, and so I'm not a fan of them laying points just yet.
Last year with a coach who had lost his way the Maze and Blue still out gained, and out first downed the Utes. Michigan had 4 turnovers in that game, and now with new blood who coaches to keep the turnovers to minimum has me buying in that they can make a game of this. Plus Utah HC Whittingham is a poor favorite with Utah going 6-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points (3-7 ATS as HM fav of 3.5 to 7 points).
Not sure Colorado is ready to be over a TD favorite just yet, and Hawaii HC Chow has experience vs The PAC 12 especially on his turf. He has a good group coming back on offense, and so The Buffaloes had better made some big gains from that woeful defense last year.
Fading Kevin Sumlin's defense at Texas A&M just about every time he is a favorite until I see some improvement in that department.
I love the hard-nose play anybody approach BYU has gone to under this coaching staff. Nebraska usually walks the dog against non conference in September, but this isn't Southern Miss or Arkansas State here.
I had to take Texas and their defense first approach along with a returning QB. Brian Kelly has good things going on in South Bend, but I don't think the Longhorns will be pushovers.
Doc
Gamblers are pumped, bookies are pumped, and all touts are pumped.
They (Touts) get to spin a new web as newcomers, and chalk players come in with wallets wide open. I think a lot of the touts that play heavy favorites do so for two reasons. They hope the other person on the end of the line (or screen) loves favorites as well. So when they lose by a kneel down at the 2 or that late garbage TD you both can say man we should have had that one. "It was the right side". The other reason is it's a mental thing, because you feel much better when he is giving you something they you can relate to rather than a bunch of dogs that have to fight to hang on.
Hey we all love when our team BOATS the other team. As bettor's "easy wins" are what we crave. Unfortunately a good majority of games come down to one possession. Other sayings you hear or say will be; "You'll get them next week", or how about "It's a grind not a sprint"? Then when they happen to go 5-1 they'll climb the highest ladder and yell for attention. I'm not immune to those services. In fact they feed off me from when I first started betting in 1988 till 1990, and I'd guess many of others on sports forums around the net have had the same experiences. I really thought there were such things as inside info, and the books "know" something. You'll waste too much energy thinking about things like that, and that's not worth your time.
In 1991 I told myself that if I'm going to lose doing this it will be because of my picks not from someone else. Hey there are a tiny handful of services out there that can win and may even actually bet their own games, but they're few and far between. One thing I've seen before is that if you can always beat the closer and win; the books will either lower your bet size to little or nothing, or cut you off completely.
A Book I recommend reading that was based off a true story is called "The Smart Money". It's a great read, and deals in truths not lies and myths. As a sports gambler you'll enjoy it.
Folks it's tough as shit to beat 11/10 odds, and if anyone tells you they can hit better than 55% to buy their picks I'd just about guarantee they're telling you a lie. If you can afford or want to buy picks than I guess that's up to you, but at least be sure to bet enough to cover the cost of the picks. Your guy may win, and I hope he does for your sake so make sure you cover their cost.
That said I win some I lose some, but one thing I can guarantee the wagers that I win or lose are from my own handicapping. It's just so much more fun for me that way.
Best of fortune to you all, and are here is what I've wagered on so far.
North Carolina +2 (Thursday)
Michigan +5.5 (Thursday)
Hawaii +8 (Thursday)
Arizona State +3
BYU +6.5
Texas +9.5
Added
Boise State -12 (Friday)
UCLA -19.5
Oklahoma -31
USC -27
Added
West Virginia -19.5
Adding...
Penn State -6.5
Kentucky -17
I don't enjoy doing many write ups anymore, but every now and then I spit out some stuff for the heck of it.
UNC brings back a lot on offense, and while they've had bad press in the athletic department I think they have a solid coaching staff. For the second year in a row Spurrier has to find a new QB. Their defense was atrocious last year, and so I'm not a fan of them laying points just yet.
Last year with a coach who had lost his way the Maze and Blue still out gained, and out first downed the Utes. Michigan had 4 turnovers in that game, and now with new blood who coaches to keep the turnovers to minimum has me buying in that they can make a game of this. Plus Utah HC Whittingham is a poor favorite with Utah going 6-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points (3-7 ATS as HM fav of 3.5 to 7 points).
Not sure Colorado is ready to be over a TD favorite just yet, and Hawaii HC Chow has experience vs The PAC 12 especially on his turf. He has a good group coming back on offense, and so The Buffaloes had better made some big gains from that woeful defense last year.
Fading Kevin Sumlin's defense at Texas A&M just about every time he is a favorite until I see some improvement in that department.
I love the hard-nose play anybody approach BYU has gone to under this coaching staff. Nebraska usually walks the dog against non conference in September, but this isn't Southern Miss or Arkansas State here.
I had to take Texas and their defense first approach along with a returning QB. Brian Kelly has good things going on in South Bend, but I don't think the Longhorns will be pushovers.
Doc
, great read. Spot on about the touts. 99% are losers.
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