CFB September Data and more

[Docwatson]

Since 2001 during the month of September....

Home Favorites of 6.5 points or less were 210-255 ATS for 45%

Home Dogs of 3 to 9.5 points were 212-169 ATS for 56%

Conference home favorites of 21 or more were 37-54 ATS for 41%

Conference Home dogs of 6.5 or less were 59-74 ATS for 44%


Last year.......

Home Favorites of 6.5 points or less were 10-19 ATS for 34%

Home Dogs of 3 to 9.5 points were 13-16 ATS for 45%

Conference home favorites of 21 or more were 1-1 ATS for 50%. Last year all conf home favs were 12-26 ATS for 32% during September

Conference Home dogs of 6.5 or less were 5-7 ATS for 42%
Synopsis for me is in the first weeks these lines are inflated based on media rankings and spin wheel that is known as talk sports radio. Touts will spin the home dog angle, and the chalk favorites. While novice gamblers love short home favorites.

For SNG - Last year for the regular season road favorites were 127-120-4 ATS for 51% Road dogs were 240-210-8 for 53%.

Short home favorites of 6.5 or last year less went 63-78-1 ATS for 45%.

That's all I got for now.

Doc

[jumperjack]

Re: CFB September Data and more

Good stuff. As far as the small home favs not doing well early in the season...the public generally looks at a game with a small line and sees little difference between those teams. When in doubt take the home team. I always look for early season road dogs that may be improved, those teams usually have hope for the new season. If the betting % is tilted heavily on a small home fav early in the season it is almost a no-brainer play for me to take that dog. I would also add that after a few games played an early season small HF might be due to an over-reaction to early results. Love playing small road dogs that have yet to win if they are playing a team that has not lost.

[Docwatson]

Re: CFB September Data and more

Good stuff. As far as the small home favs not doing well early in the season...the public generally looks at a game with a small line and sees little difference between those teams. When in doubt take the home team. I always look for early season road dogs that may be improved, those teams usually have hope for the new season. If the betting % is tilted heavily on a small home fav early in the season it is almost a no-brainer play for me to take that dog. I would also add that after a few games played an early season small HF might be due to an over-reaction to early results. Love playing small road dogs that have yet to win if they are playing a team that has not lost.

Exactly, and very nice reminding me of the "over reaction" angle as I forgot about that one....

Since 2009 September Home favorites of 6.5 or less were 31-42 ATS for 42% after a win of 10 or more points.

Home dogs in that role of 6.5 or less went 17-24 for 41% ATS.

Overall last year in September when the HF was a off a 10+ point win they went 30-37-3 ATS for 44.8%.

Just a month away and it FRG!

[TheMule]

Re: CFB September Data and more

I always remember that the Totals seem to be tilted one way or the other (on a semi-consistent basis) during the first few weeks of the season - but can't remember which it is. I found a site that has lot of Total trends for each team, but not League totals for the first few weeks of the season (September) over the last few years.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trends/ou_trends/

[Docwatson]

Re: CFB September Data and more

I always remember that the Totals seem to be tilted one way or the other (on a semi-consistent basis) during the first few weeks of the season - but can't remember which it is. I found a site that has lot of Total trends for each team, but not League totals for the first few weeks of the season (September) over the last few years.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trends/ou_trends/

Hi Mule

Here is what I pulled for September, and I'm only posting what was 55% or higher.

Since 2005 for the month of September....

ACC Home dogs the Over is 35-25-2 for 58%

The Under is 91-69-3, 57% when the Big 10 is on the road (28-23 in conf games)

In games where a MAC team is favored in Sept.the Over is 59-40 for 60%.

When a team from the Sunbelt is a road dog (when are they not???) The Over is 67-42 for 59%

Doc

[TheMule]

Re: CFB September Data and more

Sorry I thought I was in the NFL forum when I read the thread and posted.

Thanks for the info!