College Football Betting Info. Week 11

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Re: College Football Betting Info. Week 11

Clemson at Wake Forest
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

After last week’s thrilling ACC clash between Florida State and Louisville featured great drama and national implications, this week’s Thursday night TV game features much less fanfare. Clemson visits Wake Forest in an ACC Atlantic battle with the Tigers looking to bolster its claim as the second best team in the conference while the Demon Deacons are in search of their first conference win.

Match-up: Clemson Tigers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Venue: BB&T Field in Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Date: Thursday, November 6, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Clemson -21
Last Meeting: 2013, Clemson (-29.5) 56-7 at Clemson

Clemson lost two of its first three games this season, but the Tigers sit at 6-2 and with both losses coming on the road against quality teams, the Tigers could still build an impressive season resume by season’s end. Next week’s game at Georgia Tech will be a tough test as will the annual rivalry game with South Carolina, but winning out is not out of the question for this team. A 10-2 record would not likely be enough to get the Tigers into the national playoff conversation, but it would mean a fourth 10-win regular season in the last five years for Dabo Swinney and the Tigers.

Clemson lost several big name playmakers from last season on offense, but the defense was expected to carry the team. After allowing 45 points with a second half collapse in the opener at Georgia, some major questions were raised, but the Clemson defense has been very tough since, including allowing a total of just 36 points over the last four games in ACC play. The Clemson offense has been limited especially after the injury to freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson. Senior Cole Stoudt has been more of a game manager for the Tigers, but it seems likely that Watson may return in some fashion this week.

The Clemson defense is allowing just 18.3 points per game on the season, but the offensive numbers have been inflated with 73 points against South Carolina State and 50 points against North Carolina early in the season. In three road games, Clemson has scored only 61 points and this will be a big test for the focus of the team coming off a bye week and with a much bigger game ahead next week.

Dave Clawson did an excellent job at Bowling Green, but he opted to take the Wake Forest job last winter, taking over for long-time head coach Jim Grobe in Winston-Salem. This was not a ready-to-go team built by a coach that left for a bigger job, this was a complete rebuild and it has been a difficult first season for the new coaching staff, which was not unexpected. Only 10 returning starters remained for Clawson to start the season and this was a 4-8 team in 2013 and a program with just one bowl appearance in the last five years after making three straight bowl games from 2006 to 2008, actually winning the ACC championship in 2006.

Early season losses to Louisiana-Monroe and Utah State on the road were close games on the scoreboard, but not in the box score and the lone wins this season have come at home against FCS Gardner-Webb and at home against Army with the Wake Forest offense posting only 47 points in those games. Only two teams at the FBS level have scored fewer points per game than Wake Forest this season and in four ACC games, the Demon Deacons have scored just four touchdowns and 37 total points.

The defense for the Demon Deacons has been respectable and freshman quarterback John Wolford has shown some improvement. Wolford has been the starter all season and after throwing 10 interceptions in his first five games, he has just three in his last three games, passing for at least 60 percent completions in each of those games despite facing solid competition. His last game was his best with 242 passing yards on 73 percent completions against Boston College and his last two games have featured by far his highest adjusted quarterback ratings as there is some promise moving forward. Wolford has been sacked 28 times this season as the offensive line has not provided great protection and that should be a problematic matchup for Wake Forest on Thursday night against a formidable Clemson defensive line.

The running game has provided absolutely no help as well and while the average has been hurt by so many sacks allowed, Wake Forest has averaged just over 34 yards rushing per game, easily the worst mark nationally. Through eight games the leading rusher for Wake Forest has a grand total of 143 yards, a good single game average for the top running back on many teams. Wake Forest has been overmatched this season, but a primetime opportunity coming off a bye week may bring out the team’s best.

Clemson won 56-7 last season at home in this matchup, a game that was 21-0 halfway through the first quarter with Tajh Boyd having a big game and not needing to play in the second half. Clemson out-gained Wake Forest 573-222 in that game with only one of 15 Wake Forest drives resulting in more than 37 yards.

Clemson Historical Trends: Clemson is just 8-15-1 ATS vs. Wake Forest since 1990, though they have covered in five of the last seven meetings. The Tigers have won and covered in the last two trips to Wake Forest, but had gone just 1-7-1 ATS in the previous nine. Clemson is just 24-36-2 ATS as a road favorite since 1990, going 7-14-1 ATS as a double-digit road favorite in that span. This will be the largest road favorite spread for Clemson since 1990 at Duke and Clemson is just 5-9 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more points in any venue since 2007.

Wake Forest Historical Trends: The Demon Deacons are 18-11 ATS as a home underdog since 2004 but just 17-21-1 ATS as a double-digit home underdog since 1997. Wake Forest is 3-5 ATS as a home underdog of 20 or more points since 1994 and Wake Forest is 2-8 ATS as an underdog of 20 or more points in any venue since 2010, splitting two instances this season. Wake Forest has covered once in the last five meetings with Clemson while going just 6-28 S/U in this series since 1980.

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Re: College Football Betting Info. Week 11

College football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com

(17) Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats (+10)

With Todd Gurley suspended, Nick Chubb has really picked up the slack out of the back field. In the three games that Gurley has missed, the freshman has rushed for 501 yards and four touchdowns. The Bulldogs are coming off their first ATS loss without Gurley as they head into Kentucky, however.

Kentucky's defense will have its hands full with the Georgia rushing attack. The Wildcats rank 94th in the nation in stopping the run, allowing an average of 188.6 yards per game on the ground.

Presbyterian Blue Hose at (13) Ole Miss Rebels (OTB)

The Blue Hose are on pace for the best rushing season in its Division I era, posting an average of 182.8 yards per game. PC posted 175.6 rushing yards per game in 11 games in 2011, the current record.

Ole Miss will start life without WR Laquon Treadwell against Presbyterian. Treadwell, the Rebels leader in receptions and touchdown catches, fractured his leg last week.

(10) Baylor Bears at (16) Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5)

Baylor has scored at least one touchdown in 29 of 32 quarters of action this season, but the Bears seem to do most of their damage early. Baylor has scored at least one TD in the first quarter of all seven games this year and is outscoring opponents 137-35 in the opening quarter.

Oklahoma got a bit of a scare when Sterling Shepard strained his groin last week, but Bob Stoops told reporters early this week that “we’re optimistic that it will heal enough that he’ll be full speed (for Baylor)”. Shepard leads the Big 12 in receiving yards per game (119.6).

(24) Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers (+17)

With 19 total touchdowns, Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon ranks No. 2 nationally in scoring at 14.3 points per game, trailing only Western Michigan running back Jarvion Franklin (14.7).

The Boilermakers have been putting up an average of 27 ppg, but there's no single threat for defenses to key in on. Purdue has thrown 13 touchdown passes this season, but no receiver has caught more than one in a single game.

(20) Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange (+3)

Duke boasts the highest-ranked offensive line in the country in regard to keeping its quarterback upright, surrendering just 0.50 sacks per game and a total of 4.0 this season.

The running game will be key for the Orange, who are 3-1 when someone rushes for 100-plus yards and 0-5 when none of their ballcarriers reach that mark.

Texas A&M Aggies at (3) Auburn Tigers (-23.5)

Texas A&M will turn to freshman Kyle Allen at quarterback for the second straight game after Kenny Hill's suspension by the team. "Operationally (Allen) was good there. That’s what you worry about with any young quarterback from an operational standpoint," Aggies coach Kevin Sumlin said this week. "Our communication could get better. We missed a couple signals on the perimeter, whether that’s the receivers or him."

Auburn certainly prefers to get into shootouts. Since 2005, the Tigers are 16-1 SU in games when teams both score 30 or more points.

(8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at (12) Arizona State Sun Devils (-2.5)

Notre Dame has been in command of its games this year. The Irish have trailed for just 11.1 percent of the season, 53:27 out of 480:00 of action. The Irish have held the lead for 304:05 or 63.4 percent of the season.

ASU is facing its fifth AP-ranked opponent in the last five six played, which is the most the Sun Devils have played in such a short span ever. Against Top 25 teams during that span, the Sun Devils are 4-1 AU and 3-2 ATS.

(25) West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Longhorns (+3.5)

"I thought I did a pretty terrible job of managing the game," WVU's Clink Trickett said after throwing two interceptions last week. "Couple turnovers - I've got to be able to hold on to the ball and be more conscious of that."

Home field has not meant an advantage for the Longhorns, as they are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on their turf. "It's tough because this is supposed to be our home, and you're always expected to defend your home," Longhorns LB Jordan Hicks said this week.

Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks at (1) Mississippi State Bulldogs (OTB)

Skyhawks Abou Toure has been lighting in up on the ground over the past two weeks. In Tennessee-Martin's past two games, the senior has rushed for 348 yards and five touchdowns.

It is understandable why Dak Prescott is a leading Heisman candidate as he leads the nation in 200 yard passing/100 yard rushing games, achieving the feat four times this season.

Virginia Cavaliers at (2) Florida State Seminoles (-19.5)

When you look at Virginia's passing attack, the first thing you notice is balance. The Cavaliers are one of only four teams in FBS that have five or more players with at least 20 receptions, which means the FSU secondary will need to be ready for threats from all angles.

Jameis Winston has been outstanding while playing in Tallahassee during his career. The pivot has led the Seminoles to a 11-0 SU record and 9-2 ATS at home while outscoring opponents 255-37.

(18) UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies (+4.5)

Despite winning their last two games (1-1 ATS), the Bruins have had serious penalty issues heading into the game versus Washington. UCLA has been penalized a combined 25 times for 239 yards in those previous two games. The Bruins rank 115 in the Nation seeing 8.2 flags per game.

Good news for the Washington Huskies offensive line as LG Dexter Charles is expected to return to the lineup. Charles miss the last two weeks after suffering a foot injury.

(22) Marshall Thundering Herd at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (OTB)

Along with No.1 Mississippi State and No. 2 Florida State, Marshall is one of three programs to remain unbeaten straight up. The best at the betting window of those three? The Thundering Herd, who are 6-2 against the spread (MSU 5-3 ATS, FSU 2-6 ATS).

Southern Miss coach Todd Monken was quick to defend quarterback Cole Weeks after a four-turnover performance one week ago. “It wasn't one guy,” Monken told the Hattiesburg American. “Because you might've had a protection issue and that's not necessarily the offensive line's fault. It might have been a running back. And a guy hits you when you're not looking and the ball comes out, I don't know how you can blame the quarterback for that.”

(9) Kansas State Wildcats at (7) TCU Horned Frogs (-6)

Kansas State is 39 of 42 in the red zone this season, including 25 straight scores (19 touchdowns and six field goals) during the past five games.

Though officially listed as questionable, TCU's RB B.J Catalon has not practiced all week. Catalon leads the Horned Frogs with 493 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.

Colorado Buffaloes at (21) Arizona Wildcats (-16.5)

Colorado needs to stop their sudden case of the fumbles if they want to compete with Arizona. The Buffaloes lost three fumbles last week after recording only one in their first eight games.

"There are so many things we can do better," Wildcats coach Rich Rodriguez told reporters after the Wildcats were held to 255 yards, 80 on the ground, last week.

(4) Alabama Crimson Tide at (15) LSU Tigers (-3.5)

Since 2009, no defense has allowed fewer touchdowns than the Crimson Tide. Alabama’s defense has surrendered just 104 touchdowns over the last 75 games. That is 39 fewer than the second most in the nation (LSU with 143).

LSU is 46-3 in Saturday night games in Tiger Stadium under Les Miles. All three of those losses coming to teams that were either No. 1 at the time or reached No. 1 at some point during the year.

(11) Ohio State Buckeyes at (6) Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)

The Buckeyes have outscored their last six opponents by a combined 189-38 in the first half, shutting out the last two in the opening 30 minutes.

Smack talk is flying between the Spartans and Buckeyes. Senior Spartans LB Taiwan Jones called Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett a "way better QB" with a "better arm" than starter Braxton Miller.

(5) Oregon Ducks at (22) Utah Utes (+8)

Ducks LT Jake FIsher has been the key to a stellar offense. Oregon has not allowed a sack in four of the seven games the senior has played this season, but have given up 12 in the two games he has missed.

The Utes, who lead the netion with 39 sacks, are currently on pace to produce the second-highest sack total in the past decade of college football play.

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Re: College Football Betting Info. Week 11

NCAAF Week 11

Top games of week

Penn State lost last four games, last three by 7 or less points; they're 1-1 on road this season, winning 13-10 at Rutgers. Indiana (+3.5) beat Penn State 44-24 LY, its first series win in last 13 tries; Lions won last seven visits here, all by 11+ points. Indiana allowed 45 ppg in losing last three games; they're 5-6 as home dogs under Wilson, 0-1 this year. Penn State is 2-4 in last six games as a road favorite. Big 14 home underdogs are 5-5 this year.

Iowa won 10 of last 13 games with Minnesota, winning 23-7/31-13 last two years; Hawkeyes are 4-3 as series road favorite, but just 2-3 SU in last five visits here. Gophers are 4-0 at home this year, 1-1 as underdog; they're 6-6 as home dogs under Kill. Iowa scored 41.3 ppg in last three games; they're 2-1 on road and covered last five tries as a road favorite. Minnesota lost 28-24 to Illinois in last game, despite outgaining Illini by 148 yards.

Michigan was outscored 92-35 in losing its first three road games; they won eight of last nine games with Northwestern, last three by 8-7-18, in series where underdogs covered five of last six in series. Wolverines won five in a row in Evanston, all by 8+ points. Wildcats allowed 36.7 ppg in losing last three games by combined 110-41; they gave up 14 points or less in all three wins, 23+ in losses- they're 1-3 at home vs I-A teams. Michigan is 0-5 this year when they allow more than 14 points.

Underdogs are 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight Georgia Tech-NC State tilts; Tech won last four visits here, all by 7+ points, in series where host lost last five games. State lost four of last five games and was outgained by 38 yards in LW's win at Syracuse; they've been outgained in six of eight I-A games. Tech scored 44.7 ppg in its last three games; they're 3-1 on road, with average total of 73.5 in those games. ACC home underdogs are 8-6 against spread this season.

Louisville lost two of last three games after 5-1 start; all six of its wins are by 10+ points. Cardinals had Florida State 21-0/24-7 last Thursday; their next game is at Notre Dame, so bit of trap game here, vs BC squad that won three of last four games, but lost last two home games by total of seven points (Colo State/Clemson). Eagles scored 23+ points in all six of its wins, 21 or less in losses; they're 7-3 vs spread under Addazio at home, 2-2 this season.

Texas won both Big X meetings with West Virginia, 48-45 here, 47-40 in Moergantown LY; Mountaineers scored 30+ points in each of last seven games, but tough to bounce back after 31-30 loss to TCU at gun LW, in a game WV led 13-7 at half. Longhorns lost three of last five games- they allowed 13 or less points in three of four wins (4th was 48-45 vs Iowa State). WV scored 37 ppg in winning all three road games; they've had -3 turnover game four times in last seven games.

UCLA coach Mora is Washington alum; his Bruins are 7-2, winning last three games by 2-3-10 points- they're 2-7 vs spread, with three of four road wins by 8 or less points (1-3 as home favorite this year, 4-5 under Mora overall. Huskies are 2-3 in last five games after 4-0 start; they are 2-2 as underdogs this year, 5-2 in last seven overall as home dog. Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 vs spread. UCLA allowed 30+ points in four of its last five games.

Alabama won five of last seven games with LSU, with three of last five in series decided by 4 or less points. Bama split its last eight visits here, with dogs 5-3 vs spread in those games. Tide scored 93 points in its last two games after fans complained about 14-13 win at Arkansas. Alabama is 0-4 as favorite away from home this year, 2-8 in last 10 overall away from home. Tigers allowed 12.3 ppg in winning three straight since 41-7 loss at Auburn; they're 3-2 as home dogs under Miles.

Underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 Baylor-Oklahoma games; Bears lost last eight visits to Norman, last seven by 7+ points. Average total in last four series games is 72.3. Baylor ran ball for 587 yards in last two series games; they've scored 45+ points in six of eight games this year, but scored 28-27 in last two road games. Baylor is 11-8 under Briles as a road underdog. Sooners scored 30+ points in every game this year, with three of last four games decided by 5 or less points (2-2).

Underdogs won last three Ohio State-Michigan State games SU; OSU is 4-0 in last four visits here, with three wins by 13+ points. Buckeyes are 5-1 vs spread in last six games, scoring 50+ points in all five covers- only non-cover was 31-24 OT win (-14) at Penn State. Spartans won last six games since loss at Oregon (4-2 vs spread); they scored 45.3 ppg in last three games. Big 14 home favorites are 11-11 vs spread. Buckeyes ran ball for 200+ yards in four of last five series games.

Notre Dame (+6.5) beat Arizona State 37-34 LY in Dallas, in game that total yardage was 427-424 ASU. Sun Devils threw ball for 362 yards in game that Irish led 14-13 at half. ND 37.7 ppg in last three games, giving up 39 to Navy's option attack- they lost 31-27 at Florida State in their only true road game this year. ASU got QB Kelly back last week; they're 4-0 since getting waxed by UCLA, allowing 12 ppg in last three games. Pac-12 non-conference home favorites are 8-5 this year.

Oregon scored 46.7 ppg in winning/covering all four games since Arizona upset them; Ducks won four of last five games with Utah; three of four wins were by 14+ points. Utes (+28) lost 44-21 at Oregon LY (433-297 TY); they're 6-1 vs spread this season, 3-0 as underdog- their last five games were all decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Oregon allowed 34 ppg in winning all three games away from home- they scored 46.3 ppg. Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 vs spread this season.

Kansas State beat TCU last two years, 23-10 (-6.5) here two years ago, 33-31 (-11) at home LY; Wildcats covered last six games, winning five in row since 20-14 loss at Auburn. Snyder covered 13 of last 16 tries as a road underdog, winning SU at Oklahoma last month. Three of last five TCU games were decided by 4 or less points; Horned Frogs scored 46.7 ppg in winning/covering all four home games vs I-A teams. Big X home favorites are 6-6 vs spread in conference play.

Notes on rest of the card