Misleading NCAAF scores from Week #4

[barrett]

This is the work of Jeff Fogle who writes from across the street. I found it to be pretty interesting.


Surprises That Weren’t Misleading
There were quite a few games this past Saturday that had misleading final scores based on what was actually happening on the field. But, what struck me most emphatically was the handful of surprising results in games involving respected teams that weren’t misleading. Games that missed the market by a few touchdowns featuring statistics that confirmed the final score.
Some quick examples…

• #2 Oregon was a 23-point favorite at Washington State (a weak opponent who had already lost at home to Rutgers, and on the road at Nevada this season), yet the Ducks had to survive a nailbiter in a 38-31 victory. The game was knotted at 31-all midway through the fourth quarter. Yardage backed up the closeness. Final stats showed Oregon winning total yardage only 501-499.

This wasn’t a case where the superior team gave the ball away too often (0 turnovers for Oregon) or endured some special teams or defensive touchdowns for their opponent. Oregon was equal to lowly Washington State for about 90% of the evening. And, that was reminiscent of poor road results last November when Oregon (-10) lost at Stanford 26-20, and Oregon (-20) lost at Arizona 42-16. Don’t pencil the Ducks into college football’s Final Four just yet!

• #8 LSU was an 8-point favorite over Mississippi State, yet was dominated from the get-go in a 34-29 loss. Even with a garbage time rally that made the final moments more interesting than they had any right to be, LSU was outgained 570-430. The Tigers needed a frantic fourth quarter rally just to get within 140 yards as a favorite on a strong home field!

Again, the scoring wasn’t a fluke based on cheap points off of turnovers or special teams. LSU’s once vaunted defense was on the verge of allowing more than 600 total yards until Mississippi State tried to sit on the lead a bit too early.

• #18 Missouri was a 14-point favorite over Indiana, a disappointment that was coming off a loss to Bowling Green and an 0-2 performance vs. market prices (both double-digit non-covers). We talked last week about how Missouri may have been creating illusions on the scoreboard in its first three games. Against Indiana, Missouri could only win total yardage 498-493 in a 31-27 home loss. The Tigers lost the turnover category 1-0 rather than winning it, and couldn’t express any sort of dominance at the point of attack (getting outrushed 241-172).

• North Carolina wasn’t ranked last week, because the AP only goes to 25 places and the Tar Heels sat at #26 in voting. As short 2-point underdogs at East Carolina, they were absolutely obliterated 70-41. You see a final score like that, and you normally assume that the winner was racking up cheap points by the bushel. Wrong! East Carolina gained 789 total yards and scored a stunning 56 points on drives of 60 yards or more. That’s EIGHT touchdowns on long drives in one game!

It really was as bad as 70-41 makes it sound. North Carolina lost the first half 35-20, and the second half 35-21 against a state rival that had something to prove.

• Cincinnati had crawled into the top 40 in AP voting on the heels of an impressive TV win over Toledo the prior week. But, as 30-point favorites over a very bad Miami of Ohio team, Cincinnati could only manage a 31-24 victory with a 370-364 yardage differential. The Bearcats barely scored the pointspread…and managed nowhere near the production you would expect from a 30-point favorite (particularly since they put 58 points and 584 yards on the board in the win over Toledo).

Now, I’m not suggesting that the stats are telling us that Oregon is equal to Washington State, or that Cincinnati is equal to Miami of Ohio. The important lesson is that the scores were clean, which means that we have a clear view of weaknesses that can be exploited against Oregon, LSU, Missouri, North Carolina, and Cincinnati. We also better understand what the possible low points are for those teams when they’re not earning or lucking into a turnover advantage, or are dealing with flat situational spots in the schedule.
Oregon, Missouri, and Cincinnati appeared listless, possibly because they weren’t particularly intimidated by that week’s opponent. Tough to shine when lethargic. LSU and North Carolina ran into explosive, fired up buzzsaws that exposed major defensive weaknesses.
Misleading Final Scores
Wanted to mention those important final scores that weren’t misleading. Here are some that were.

• Iowa beat Pittsburgh 24-20, but was outgained 435-311, and outrushed 185-133. A very fortunate win for the Hawkeyes.

• Maryland beat Syracuse 34-20, but was outgained by a stunning 589-369 margin, and outrushed 379-89 (!). Be very careful trusting this Terrapins defense against physical Big 10 opponents.

• Duke beat Tulane 47-13, but was greatly assisted by a 5-2 advantage in turnovers. Yardage was only 437-375 (256-215 on the ground). If you were only scoreboard watching on that one, Duke wasn’t as impressive as the score made it seem.

• Washington beat Georgia State 45-14, but was greatly assisted by a 4-0 edge in turnovers. The 34-point favorites only managed 337 total yards, and didn’t score a point all day on a drive longer than 60 yards. The Huskies are one of the most unimpressive 4-0 teams in the nation with nailbiter wins over Hawaii and Eastern Washington to go along with this stat dud.

• Southern Miss beat Appalachian State 21-20, but was outgained 455-329. Appalachian State failed to convert a last second extra point on what had appeared to be a dramatic game-tying touchdown.

• Alabama beat Florida 42-21, but was actually more dominant than the score makes it sound. The Crimson Tide won total yardage 645-200, and outscored the Gators 42-0 on drives of 60 yards or more.

• BYU beat Virginia 41-33, but was outgained 591-332 and outrushed 192-145. BYU won the turnover category 2-0 and had a kickoff return for a touchdown to help make up for what the offense wasn’t doing.

• Arkansas beat Northern Illinois 52-14, but only won total yardage 427-303. They established superiority…but nothing near what a score like 52-14 would normally represent. Arkansas cashed in TD’s on a kickoff return and a fumble return.

• Northwestern beat Western Illinois 24-7, but was outgained 376-283.

• Louisiana Tech was upset by non-board team Northwestern State of Louisiana 30-27, but won total yardage 413-307. It was a 5-2 turnover deficit that doomed Louisiana Tech.

[barrett]

Re: Misleading NCAAF scores from Week #4

Jeff Fogle again from across the street:


Some misleading final scores from last week…

• Kansas played much worse than the scoreboard made it look in its 33-14 loss at West Virginia. Kansas was outgained 557-176, outrushed 255-65, and committed 11 penalties. A late punt return helped create illusions about how the team “responded” to the firing of Charlie Weis. They will continue to be blowout fodder the rest of the year against teams less likely to keep shooting themselves in the foot (West Virginia had 3 giveaways, and settled for four field goals).

• Virginia Tech did win and cover in a 34-17 decision over North Carolina. But, they only had a yardage advantage of 357-323. Tech had TD drives of 10 and 16 yards, and hit paydirt another time on an interception return.

• South Carolina outgained Kentucky 500-447 in its 45-38 loss, but dropped the turnover category 3-1. Their last miscue was an interception that was returned for the game-winning TD.

• Bowling Green outgained Buffalo 508-368, but could only win 36-35 because of a 3-1 turnover loss and 11 penalties.

• Notre Dame needed a late TD pass on a fourth down play to edge past Stanford 17-14. The Irish were much more dominant than that score makes it seem, winning total yardage 370-205, and rushing yardage 129-47 in a smash-mouth affair played in a cold drizzle.

• Washington State outgained California 812-589, but lost a wild 60-59 roller coaster ride. There weren’t any turnovers in the game by either team. California had two kickoff return TD’s, which helped bridge the gap from 589 to 812.

• Rutgers was much more dominant against Michigan than its 26-24 winning margin would have suggested. Rutgers won total yardage 476-336. Michigan didn’t really “rally ‘round their coach” in this tough loss. Wolverines were badly outgained.