NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/12

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StatFox Super Situations

AIR FORCE at FRESNO ST
Play On - An underdog (AIR FORCE) after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games 54-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.1% | 28.7 units ) 10-6 this year. ( 62.5% | 3.4 units )

VIRGINIA TECH at MIAMI
Play Against - A favorite vs. the money line (MIAMI) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season 66-84 over the last 5 seasons. ( 44.0% | 49.2 units ) 12-21 this year. ( 36.4% | 5.2 units )

USC at COLORADO
Play Against - Neutral Court favorites vs. the 1rst half line (COLORADO) after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in March games 77-38 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.0% | 35.2 units ) 5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 2.8 units )

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Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/12

College Basketball Information

ACC Tournament

Wake Forest (-1.5) beat Notre Dame 65-58 at home Jan 25, outscoring Irish 12-4 over last 2:24- ND was 2-19 from arc, Wake shot 60% inside arc. Deacons are 0-6 in ACC tourney last six years, with all six losses by 10+ points. Notre Dame won its first tourney game last five years, but last four years they had good teams. Wake is 2-9 since beating Irish, but one of wins was vs Duke. Irish lost four of their last five games.

Boston College lost nine of its last 11 games; they got swept by Georgia Tech this year, 68-60/74-71, despite turning ball over total of nine times in two games. Jackets won last two games after starting 4-12 in ACC, but they did win at Syracuse. Eagles are last in ACC defending arc; Tech was 12-27 from arc vs BC. BC won its first tourney games five of last seven years; Tech lost its last three first round games, by 16-18-20.

Pac-12 Tournament

Utah split four Pac-12 games with Washington, losing 59-57 in Seattle, winning rematch 786-9 Feb 6. Utes won six of last nine games; they are 2-7 on Pac-12 road, winning at USC/Cal. Utah is 1-3 in its last four first round games; their last four first round wins were all by 4 or less points. Washington won this event in '10, '11; five of its last six tourney games were decided by 4 or less points- they're 3-1 in last four games overall. .

Colorado swept USC this year, winning 83-62 at home, 83-74 Feb 16 in rematch; Buffs lost three of last four games, are 7-8 since Dinwiddie got hurt- he didn't play in either USC game. Trojans are 2-16 in Pac-12, with 11 double figure losses. Colorado is 6-3 in last nine first round games, winning last three by 2-12-6 points. USC lost last two first round games by 15-3 points. These are worst two 3-point shooting teams in Pac-12.

Oregon won its last seven games, with Arizona win likely getting them off bubble; Ducks won six of last eight games vs Oregon State; they split pair with Beavers this year, losing 80-72 in Corvallis, winning rematch 93-83 Feb 16. Ducks won this event LY; they've won three of last four first round games. Robinson is 2-3 in first round tourney games, losing by 8-7-6 points. OSU lost six of its last nine games overall.

Stanford swept Washington State this year, winning 80-48 at home, then winning rematch 69-56 Feb 15; Cardinal lost three of last four games- as a bubble team, they've got to win this game. Coogs beat UCLA by 18 in last game, snapping an 8-game skid. Stanford won its first tourney game four of last six years; Wazzu is 0-4 in last four tourney games, with all four losses by 5 or less points. Cardinal is 6-4 in last ten series games.

Mountain West Tournament

Utah State swept Colorado State this year, winning 57-50 at home, then 71-62 in rematch Feb 11; Aggies lost four of last six games overall. Rams are 5-3 in last eight first round games, winning last two by 20-6 points; Utah State lost first two first round games, by 2-5 points. Colorado St. lost five of last seven games; their only two road wins in league were at San Jose/Air Force. Utah State is MWC's best 3-point team (39.9%).

Big East Tournament

Butler won its last two games by 33-17 points after starting 2-14 in first year in Big East; half of Bulldogs' four league wins were vs Seton Hall, 64-57 on road, 71-54 at home four days ago. Butler is 11-3 in conference tourney games last six years; those were different leagues with a coach who is in NBA now. Seton Hall won its first tourney games four of last five years- they've lost seven of last nine games overall.

AAC Tournament

Rutgers lost seven of last nine games, but both wins were against South Florida, 79-69 on road, 74-73 in rematch at home 11 days ago. USF lost its last eight games, with three of its last four losses by 5 or less points. Bulls won their first tourney games three of last four years; Rutgers is 2-3 in its last five first round games. USF made only 24.8% of 3-pointers in league play- they're 2nd-to-last in AAC defending the 3.

UCF/Temple split pair of close games this year; Knights won 78-76 at home, then lost rematch 86-78 in OT at Philly eight days ago. UCF was 3-6 in C-USA tourney last seven years; Temple lost last two first round games in A-10 tourney, by 6-5 points. UCF is 3-4 in last seven games, after starting 1-10 in ACC- they scored 104 points last game. Temple won its last two games, after starting out 2-14 in its first AAC season.

SEC Tournament

South Carolina splt its last eight games after starting 1-9 in SEC; its only road win was Saturday at Miss State, when Martin (suspension) didn't coach team. Auburn beat Gamecocks twice this year, 79-74 in Columbia, 83-67 in rematch Feb 26th. Auburn lost seven of last eight first round games; its last six losses were by 9+ points; South Carolina is 0-5 in this event last five years, with three losses by 11+ points.

Mississippi State was 13-5 on Jan 22; they're 0-13 since, losing 55-49 at Vanderbilt Feb 1 (+6), when Vandy took 25 3's, but made 15-22 (68.2%) inside arc. Commodores lost last four games overall, three by six or less points. MSU is 3-2 in this round of SEC tournament; Vandy won six of eight games in this round. These are two worst 3-point shooting teams in SEC. Commodores actually won three conference road games.

Big X Tournament

Oklahoma State split pair with Texas Tech this year, losing 65-61 when Smart got shoved a Tech fan at end, winning rematch 84-62 Feb 22. OSU is 4-1 since Smart returned, losing last game in OT at Iowa State. Tech is 1-6 in its last seven games, beating Texas on Senior Day. Oklahoma State won its first tourney game last 10 years; Texas Tech is 8-3 in its last 11 first round games, with only one loss by more than four points.

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Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/12

ACC Conference Tournament Betting Cheat Sheet: Round 1
By Covers.com

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wake Forest (+3.5)

Notre Dame enters its first ACC Tournament as the 13th seed and looks to avenge an earlier defeat against Wake Forest in the opening round at Greensboro, N.C. on Wednesday. The Fighting Irish comes in off three straight solid efforts, although the last two were losses to Pittsburgh in overtime and at 15th-ranked North Carolina 63-61.

Wake Forest, the 12th seed, shocked sixth-ranked Duke last week at home before losing momentum in a 13-point defeat at Miami (Fla.) on Saturday. Leading scorer Codi Miller-McIntyre (12.9) looks to rebound off a two-point effort at Miami, but has dished out at least six assists in three of his last four contests. Forwards Travis McKie (11.2) and Thomas (11) also score in double figures and Tyler Cavanaugh (9.2) posted 20 points against Duke.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.
* Demon Deacons are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Over is 12-4 in Demon Deacons last 16 neutral site games.


Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Miami Hurricanes (-6)

The Hokies have struggled with injuries much of the season and will be trying to snap a six-game losing streak. Senior Jarell Eddie leads the way at 13.2 points per game for a team that has shot 40.6 percent from the field overall – 37.2 in league play.

Miami (Fla.) will have to win five games in five days to defend its ACC Tournament title. Senior forward Erik Swoope has averaged 13.2 points over the last five contests and the Hurricanes need a big effort from improving 7-0 center Tonye Jekiri for a long tournament run.

TRENDS:

* Hokies are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
* Hurricanes are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Hokies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Under is 22-5 in Hokies last 27 overall.


Boston College Eagles vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-1)

Olivier Hanlan is the Eagles’ biggest offensive weapon, finishing third in the ACC in scoring (18.6 points) and seventh in field-goal percentage (45 percent). Ryan Anderson leads all active conference players in double-doubles (19), ranking ninth in the league in rebounding (7.1) and 11th in scoring (14.3). Eight of the Eagles’ conference losses came by single digits.

The Yellow Jackets closed the season with two victories in a row, starting with the upset of the Syracuse Orange, and own a pair of close victories over the Eagles this season. They have battled injuries all season, but are finally healthy with leading scorer Trae Golden and Robert Carter Jr. back to full strength.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Yellow Jackets are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.