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NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/11

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  • NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/11

    Sleeper Squads
    By Mike Rose
    VegasInsider.com

    It's the best week of the year for college basketball betting fans, as every team in every conference has a shot to play its way into the NCAA tournament. There are always clubs that come out of nowhere to steal bids, and we've got a look at some of the ones that can do some damage and blow up some bubbles in the process.

    Rhode Island Rams (14-17, 16-11 ATS) – The Rams have covered their last five games, and they have gone 3-2 SU in those duels. Their only losses both came by three points to UMass and St. Joe's. Not only are the Minutemen up first, but next in line is GW. Both of those teams have already locked up their spot to the dance. With Rhode Island playing so well, the A-10 Tournament could get turned upside down, but this isn't the only team we think could prove to be problematic in Brooklyn.

    La Salle Explorers (15-15, 7-19-1 ATS) – We know. That ATS record was atrocious this season for La Salle. However, last season, this team went from the First Four to the Sweet 16, and there are a lot of holdovers from that club. In fact, only Ramon Galloway is gone. Steve Zack is a better big man now, and the rest of the numbers are falling in line too, but the bottom line is that the A-10 has been a horror to try to win games in. Don't discount the possibility that, while Rhode Island is doing damage on one side of the bracket, La Salle might be blowing up the other, especially with as suspect as some of the teams at the top of the A-10 have been playing of late.

    Northern Illinois Huskies (14-16, 16-11-1 ATS) - The Huskies served notice to the rest of the MAC when they upset Toledo a few weeks ago. They'll be favored against lowly Bowling Green to start off the MAC Tournament, and then it's off to a game with Buffalo, a very winnable fixture for a team which loves to take the air out of the basketball. The best part about the Huskies? They're 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games entering this tourney. Even if NIU doesn't win it, we know we don't want to fade it on the college basketball betting lines.

    Nebraska Cornhuskers (18-11, 19-10 ATS) – Why? Do you have a better idea who is winning the Big Ten Tournament? The Cornhuskers are the fourth seed in this tournament, but they'll be dogs in every game which they play for sure. However, they already have upsets of Wisconsin and Michigan State of late, and they are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine. Why “Nebrasketball” you ask? Why not?!

    Alabama Crimson Tide (13-18, 11-14-3 ATS) – Florida is winning the SEC. We know this. There's a reason that the team didn't lose a conference game all season long. But if you look at the rest of the draw Alabama is set to face, and you realize that Trevor Releford is Alabama's answer to the crazy stuff which Marshall Henderson does for Ole Miss, you'll realize that maybe we're not so crazy. LSU seems destined to crash out of this tournament in a hurry, and up next would be Kentucky, who could beat Bama by 30 or lose by 20. The Tide’s covered their last three (including nearly beating Kentucky), and they at least have to think they can make it to the weekend at the Georgia Dome whether anyone else believes in them or not.

  • #2
    Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/11

    AAC Tournament Betting Cheat Sheet
    By Jason Logan
    Covers.com

    The inaugural American Athletic Conference tournament tips off Wednesday, and if the departed Big East members have anything to say about it, the first AAC tournament could be a wild ride ripe with betting value.

    Here’s a quick breakdown of the teams to watch in the AAC tournament at FedExForum in Memphis this week:

    Favorites

    Louisville Cardinals - The defending national champs closed out the year with a statement win at SMU and a blowout over UConn at home. Louisville ranks in the Top 20 in both offense (81.8 ppg) and defense (61.8) and has plenty of postseason experience on its roster.

    Cincinnati Bearcats - Cincinnati is one of the stingiest teams in the country, allowing only 58.4 points per game. The Bearcats clamped down on AAC competition but sometimes found themselves short on firepower when they need a bucket. Cincinnati gets 30 percent of its offense from Sean Kilpatrick, which is dangerous should the Bearcats talent guard wear down in the tournament.

    Live Underdog

    Memphis Tigers – Memphis struggled with consistency all season but showed just how good it can be with a strong push at the end of conference play. The Tigers’ talented roster took wins over Louisville and SMU down the stretch and proved it could run with the country’s elite in non-conference games against Oklahoma State, Florida and Gonzaga. The big chink in Memphis’ armor is a less-than-impressive road record.

    Best ATS team

    SMU Mustangs – The Mustangs (17-10 ATS), transplanted in the AAC from the C-USA, stunned basketball bettors in conference play. Southern Methodist reeled off seven straight covers and went on an 11-1 ATS streak during AAC play before the market caught up to the Pony Express. The Mustangs fell flat on their faces to end conference play with back-to-back loss to Louisville and Memphis that damaged their tournament seeding.

    Best Over/Under

    Cincinnati Bearcats - Cincinnati’s lock-down defense and lackluster scoring punch is the perfect recipe for Under bettors (7-18 O/U). The Bearcats held 11 of their 17 conference opponents to under 60 points while totaling less than 70 points for in 12 of their AAC clashes. However, the market is adjusting to Cincy’s Under run with the final two games of the schedule playing Over.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/11

      MWC Betting Notes
      By Marc Lawrence
      VegasInsider.com

      MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE

      March 12-15 -- All games at the Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV (home court of UNLV)

      PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: NEW MEXICO, SAN DIEGO STATE, UNLV, BOISE STATE

      THE WAY WE SEE IT:

      Last year the ever-improving Mountain West sent five teams to the Big Dance. As a result, it matched the Big 10, the Big 12 and the Big East as the only conferences to send at least half of its members to the NCAA tournament. NEW MEXICO returns as the two-time defending champion. The Lobos were the preseason pick to win the conference and bring the nation’s #11 ranked team in Defensive Field Goal Percentage into this tourney. A 6-0 SUATS mark the last two seasons makes them the team to beat.

      Steve Fisher’s SAN DIEGO STATE squad has been a member of the MWC each of its 15 years of existence and are 9-2 SU in this tournament the last four years. Like New Mexico, the Aztecs play sticky ‘D’ (#12 Defensive Field Goal Percentage). The razor-thin edge separating the two best teams in the league comes down to altitude. The Lobos play in it while the Aztecs are a sea-level team who are just 6-12 SUATS in their last eighteen games at altitude.

      UNLV hosts the tourney for the 8th straight year. The up-and-down Rebels will rely on the power play of former UConn transfer Roscoe Smith, their leading scorer and rebounder. Like New Mexico and San Diego State, UNLV plays a salty brand of defense as well (#25 Defensive Field Goal Percentage).

      BOISE STATE has gone one-and-out in its first two years in the MWC tourney. Five returning starters from last year’s 21-win unit will be dead serious about making amends. A 12-2 SU mark at press time versus sub .590 opponents overrides the Broncos’ ridiculous 5-12 ATS conference spread record this campaign.

      THE SLEEPER: WYOMING

      The ‘Mountain’ is down considerably this season as opposed to last, and as a result nary a ‘sleeper’ team stands out. The Cowboys come closest to filling the bill, sporting a nifty 7-1 ATS mark in games versus .650 or greater opponents this season. A 4-1 ATS dog log in this event against #3 or lower seeds means we actually may be calling their name.

      KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON THE NO. 2 SEED IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

      Like Avis, apparently No. 2 tries harder when it comes to cutting down the nets in this tourney. That’s confirmed by the fact that these seeds are 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS all-time in MWC title tilts.

      EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES

      AIR FORCE: 3-0 ATS off DD ATS win, 3-0 ATS w/revenge off SU win, 5-1 ATS as dogs 12 < pts, 0-4 ATS as favs, 0-3 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 2-14 SU all-time

      BOISE ST: 3-1 ATS vs opp of BB SU losses, 5-2 ATS as pick or dogs 4 < pts, 0-5 ATS vs #2 seed, 2-5 ATS vs opp w/revenge

      COLORADO ST: 5-1 ATS as #6-7 seed, 4-1 ATS as dogs vs opp off SUATS win, 1-5 ATS dogs < 4 pts, 1-4 ATS vs #1 seed, 1-3 ATS L4 as favs

      FRESNO ST: 8-1 ATS off SU loss, 7-2 ATS w/revenge, 3-8 ATS off DD ATS win, 2-9 ATS off SU conference tourney win

      NEVADA: 7-1 ATS as favs vs opp off BB SU wins, 0-6-1 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses, 0-5 ATS L5 as dogs, 1-6 ATS off DD ATS win, 1-6-1 ATS vs #3 seed or higher

      NEW MEXICO: 5-0 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 3-0 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss, 6-1 ATS off DD SU win, 6-1-1 ATS dogs < 7 pts. 1-4 ATS vs #6 or higher seed

      SAN DIEGO ST: 6-1 SUATS dogs 4 < pts, 3-1 ATS off DD SU loss, 0-3 ATS vs #3 seed, 1-7 ATS favs > 4 pts. 1-4 ATS off SUATS win vs opp w/revenge

      UNLV: 5-0 ATS vs #1 seed, 5-1-1 ATS as pick or dogs, 8-3 ATS 2nd game, 5-2 ATS off DD SU win vs opp w/revenge, 0-4 ATS L4 as favs < 10 pts, 0-3 ATS as DD favs vs opp off BB SU losses

      UTAH ST: 6-1 ATS as dogs off SU win, 5-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge off DD SU win, 0-3 ATS as favs < 7 pts, 1-3 ATS off BB SU losses

      WYOMING: 4-0 ATS as #7 seed, 3-1 ATS as dogs off ATS loss, 1-5 ATS L6 as favs, 2-5 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 1-4 ATS vs opp off DD SU win

      TECH NOTES:

      -- Dogs off BB SU losses are 18-8 ATS and 8-2 ATS as DD dogs

      -- Teams w/revenge are 43-21-2 ATS and 10-2 ATS off 3+ SUATS losses

      -- Favorites off a DD SU loss are 1-5 ATS

      -- Teams off BB SUATS wins are 3-7 ATS vs opp off SU loss

      -- #1 seeds are 9-22 ATS and 3-12 ATS off SUATS win

      -- #2 seeds are 10-1 ATS vs opp off SUATS win

      -- #3 seeds are 7-16-1 ATS and 1-9 ATS vs opp off SU loss

      -- #4 seeds w/revenge are 5-0-2 ATS

      -- #7 seeds are 7-1 ATS as dogs 10 < pts

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/11

        A-10 Betting Notes
        By Marc Lawrence
        VegasInsider.com

        ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE

        March 11-16 -- All games at Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

        PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: SAINT LOUIS, VCU, MASSACHUSETTS, ST. JOSEPH’S

        THE WAY WE SEE IT:

        Amazing, but true. After the passing of head coach Rick Majerus in early December 2012, the Billikens of SAINT LOUIS have been on a 50-9 SU winning tear under replacement coach Jim Crews. In fact, the former Indiana guard enters this tourney 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS in conference games with the Billikens against opponents off a win. Unless things change dramatically, Louie Louie looks to be the ‘Kingsmen’ of the conference for the 2nd year in a row as the Majerus memorial march continues.

        VCU fell to St. Louis in the title game last season and would appear to be a ‘smart’ choice this go-round. The Rams were a preseason Top 20 squad for the first time in school history this year and bring an “it’s havoc you fear” approach to the game under head coach Shaka Smart. Color them dangerous.

        After opening the season with wins in 16 of its first 17 games, MASSACHUSETTS proved its worth with a sterling 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS mark in games versus .750 or greater opposition this campaign (check Sunday season-ender versus Saint Louis). The Minutemen return 4 starters from a 21-win unit that made it to the semifinals of this tourney last year. The problem is they are just 3-21 SU and 4-19-1 as small dogs (+3 or less) under head coach Derek Kellogg.

        If it seems like Phil Martelli has been around forever at ST. JOSEPH’S, it’s because he has, now in his 20th year with the Hawks. Here’s all you need to know about Joe’s in this event: under Martelli, the Hawks are 20-3 SU and 17-5-1 ATS versus .620 or less opponents; 3-15 SU and 6-11-1 ATS against all else. Phil’s kids are also 12-3 SU and 12-2-1 ATS when taking on #5 or lowers seeds in conference tourney games.

        THE SLEEPER: GEORGE WASHINGTON

        The Colonials returned 5 starters from a 13-win squad last year, four of whom were freshmen. Along with Indiana transfer Maurice Creek, the team’s leading scorer this season, ol’ wooden tooth topped the 20-win plateau this season and is a team no one in the tourney is anxious to meet. They proved their worth against top-notch opposition this season (3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS versus .800 or greater foes) and will be anxious to erase the stain of three straight one-and-out performances in this tourney the last three years. Remember, they are 20-9 ATS the last twenty-nine games in this event.

        KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON VCU WITH REVENGE

        Our old standby – Temple in Game One of this event – has gone by the wayside with opening round losses the last two years. Instead, we turn to the Rams and head coach Shaka Smart who has excelled in revenge during his tenure with VCU, going 24-4 SU and 20-8 ATS. With UMass, St. Joe’s and St. Louis each lined up at press time (check season-ending Richmond and St. Bonaventure results as well) as potential payback victims, we look no further than this ‘Smart’ box.

        EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES

        DAYTON: 5-1 ATS as DD favs, 10-3-1 ATS in 1st game, 1-12 ATS dogs < 8 pts, 1-6 w/revenge vs opp off BB SU wins, 1-4 ATS off DD ATS win

        DUQUESNE: 0-4 SUATS L4, 0-3 vs #1 seeds, 2-9 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 1-5 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss, 1-4 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 1-4 ATS vs #7-8 seeds, 2-6 ATS as DD dogs, 2-8 ATS off SU win, 4-11 as #4-6 seeds

        FORDHAM: 0-7 ATS L7 dogs > 3 pts, 0-4 L4 ATS games, 0-4 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 1-5 ATS as #5 seeds, 1-4 ATS off SUATS loss, 1-3 ATS as DD dogs

        GEORGE MASON: 7-1 ATS as #3 seed, 13-3 ATS vs opp off DD SU win, 0-4 ATS vs #10-11 seeds, 1-5 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 1-4 ATS off SU dog win

        GEORGE WASHINGTON: 6-1 ATS favs vs opp off BB SU wins, 13-2 ATS off DD SU win (7-0 ATS as favs), 5-1 ATS vs #3 seeds, 10-4 ATS w/revenge, 2-10 ATS dogs 2 to 9 pts

        LA SALLE: 8-3 ATS vs #5 seed or lower, 2-10-2 ATS vs #1-5 seeds, 1-5 SUATS as #5-6 seed, 2-8-2 ATS dogs 5 > points, 2-7 ATS dogs off SU win, 2-6 ATS off SU dog win

        MASSACHUSETTS: 4-0 ATS vs #1 seeds, 4-0 ATS dogs off DD SU win, 4-0 ATS vs #1 seed, 3-0 ATS as DD dogs, 7-2 ATS w/revenge vs opp off SU win, 9-3 ATS favs vs opp off BB SU wins, 8-3 ATS dogs 4 > pts

        RHODE ISLAND: 6-1 SUATS vs #4-5 seeds, 1-8 ATS dogs off SU dog win, 1-6 ATS off BB SUATS wins, 2-8 ATS vs #6 seed or lower

        RICHMOND: 4-0-1 ATS off SU dog win, 7-2 ATS as favs, 3-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 1-6 ATS dogs > 4 pts

        ST. BONAVENTURE: 5-0 ATS favs off SU loss, 6-1 ATS off DD SU loss, 4-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss, 1-5 ATS dogs vs opp off SU dog win

        ST. JOSEPH’S: 6-0 ATS vs opp off SU fav loss, 9-1 ATS vs #9 seed or lower, 7-1 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses, 6-2 ATS L8, 5-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 14-3-1 ATS favs 3 > pts, 12-3 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 2-8 ATS dogs vs opp off DD SU win

        ST. LOUIS: 3-0 ATS off DD SU win, 0-3 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 0-3 ATS off SU dog win, 1-5 ATS dogs 5 < pts... VCU: 1-7 ATS off BB SUATS wins, 1-5 ATS off DD ATS win, 2-9 ATS as dogs, 2-8 ATS as DD favs.

        TECH NOTES:

        -- Favorites w/3+ days of rest are 13-2 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS losses

        -- Favorites w/3+ days of rest are 10-3 ATS off BB SU losses

        -- DD favorites are 2-5 ATS off a DD ATS win

        -- Underdogs are 12-30-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge

        -- Underdogs are 19-36-1 ATS off a SU dog win

        -- #1 seeds are 0-4 ATS as dogs

        -- #2 seeds are 10-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win

        -- #4 seeds are 13-2 ATS L15 as favorites

        -- #5 seeds are 0-6 ATS as dogs off SUATS loss

        -- #7 seeds are 5-0 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 4-0 ATS off DD SU loss and 6-1 dogs vs opp off SUATS loss

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/11

          Big East Tournament Betting Cheat Sheet
          By Chase Ruttig
          Covers.com

          The first tournament of the reformed Big East is set to take place in a battle between new faces and defenders of the old guard looking for the conference crown at Madison Square Garden.

          Here’s a quick breakdown of the teams to watch in the Big East this week.

          Favorites

          Villanova Wildcats (+150) – The Wildcats defended the Big East and held off newcomers all season on their way to a 28-3 record and a outright conference title. Looking for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, Villanova may have to conquer their demons against a Creighton team that swept them in conference play in Nebraska and on its home court in Philadelphia.

          Creighton Bluejays (+175) - Tops in the nation in 3-point shooting (42.1 percent) and FG percentage (49.6 percent), Creighton is led by senior sensation Doug McDermott who has already passed Larry Bird in scoring and is supported by sharpshooter Ethan Wragge and guards Auston Chatman and Grant Gibbs. Two 20-point wins over Villanova point to Creighton as the likely favorite in a No. 1 vs. No. 2 final, but first they’ll have to get there by outlasting the field.

          Live Underdog

          St. John's Red Storm (+600) – A member of the "old" Big East, the Johnnies call MSG their home and need a big tournament run to ensure that their 20-11 record is improved enough to crack the final field. St. John’s has wins in eight of its last 10, even if a home loss to Xavier is cause for concern, and the ability to hang with true Final Four contenders in Villanova and Creighton.

          Best ATS team

          Villanova Wildcats – Not much of a curveball in the Big East as the conference winners have the best ATS record with the Wildcats matching their 28-3 SU record with an equally-impressive 21-8 ATS mark.

          Best totals team

          Villanova Wildcats - In addition to having the best ATS mark the Wildcats also have the best O/U differential with their games going Over the total 18 out of 28 times.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/11

            Conference Tournament Betting Tips
            By Sam Martin
            Sports.com

            Betting on Conference Tournament games is much different from the regular season, and there are a number of extra handicapping factors to consider. We'll go over some of these extra factors, as well as highlight the ones we personally deem as important or overrated.

            "Need-to-Win Factor" - In every major conference there are usually one or two teams that the talking heads proclaim "need to win one or two games" in order to make the tournament. Usually, the general betting public equates "need to win" with "absolutely will win", and we can sometimes find decent line value playing against these teams (especially if they are listed as a big favorite).

            "Coaching History" - One of the most underrated handicapping tools for these conference tournament games is how head coaches treat these games. Some head coaches are of the opinion that they want their team to win out. Others prefer to get out of the tournament as soon as possible (assuming they have a tournament bid locked up already) and would prefer to take advantage of extra rest. Do your homework, and if you find one of each type of head coach playing each other, you might have an easy winner on your hands.

            "Momentum" - Momentum is always a betting tool we put extra emphasis on, and it's especially important in these Conference Tournament games. A perfect example is Nebraska - who looks a whole lot more appealing now than they did two months ago. Of course, it can work the other way also, as losing teams might just be ready to throw in the towel and avoid prolonging a season that is going nowhere.

            "Third Matchup" - Many conferences will see teams play a home-and-home series, so these conference tournament matchups feature the third matchup of the season. We tend to look at shooting percentages and which team controlled tempo more than wins, losses, and ATS covers in those previous matchups. It's also a good idea to see the circumstances surrounding the previous games (lookahead, letdown, etc).

            "Road Record" - Just about everybody can win at home, but only the good teams can consistently win on the road. Road records are extremely important when handicapping these tournament games (also, finding out which team has "home court" advantage, if at all). The Pac 12 Conference is a good example, where home teams have completely dominated across the board with a few notable exceptions.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/11

              StatFox Super Situations

              MARSHALL at FLA ATLANTIC
              Play Against - Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (FLA ATLANTIC) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, in a tournament game 27-7 over the last 5 seasons. ( 79.4% | 19.3 units ) 2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )

              TX-SAN ANTONIO at E CAROLINA
              Play On - Neutral court teams (TX-SAN ANTONIO) revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss by 20 points or more 20-9 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.0% | 24.9 units )

              TX-SAN ANTONIO at E CAROLINA
              Play Against - Neutral Court favorites vs. the 1rst half line (E CAROLINA) after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in March games 77-38 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.0% | 35.2 units ) 5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 2.8 units )

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/11

                5:30 PM
                RICE vs. NORTH TEXAS
                No trends available
                The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Texas's last 6 games
                North Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

                7:00 PM
                WISC-MILWAUKEE vs. WRIGHT STATE
                Wisc-Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
                Wisc-Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Wright State
                Wright State is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
                The total has gone OVER in 8 of Wright State's last 12 games

                8:00 PM
                MARSHALL vs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC
                No trends available
                Florida Atlantic is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
                The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida Atlantic's last 9 games

                8:00 PM
                PENNSYLVANIA vs. PRINCETON
                Pennsylvania is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
                Pennsylvania is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Princeton
                Princeton is 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Pennsylvania
                Princeton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pennsylvania

                10:30 PM
                TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO vs. EAST CAROLINA
                No trends available
                East Carolina is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games
                East Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games

                Comment

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