NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/10

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College Basketball Information

CAA Tournament

Delaware beat William & Mary twice this year, 76-71 (-6) at home, and 89-72 (+4) in rematch Jan 29; Blue Hens won last five series games, are 18-2 in last 20 games; they've played three starters 35+ minutes the last two nights. Wm & Mary, won eight of last eleven games- they had three guys play 32+ minutes Sunday, after only one played more than 27:00 Sunday. Last time the #1 seed won the CAA tourney: 2010.

WCC Tournament

Gonzaga hammered St Mary's twice this year, 73-51 (-8) at home, then 75-47 (-1) in Moraga nine days ago, game that was 42-22 at half. Gaels are 22-7 in last 29 series games, but just 3-2 in this tournament the last five years. Zags snuck by Santa Clara Saturday on last-second hoop by young Stockton. St Mary's lost five of its last six games against teams in top 100. Eight of last nine St Mary's games stayed under total.

San Francisco won its last six games since losing 68-63 (+11.5) at BYU Feb 8; Dons lost 83-76 in first meeting this year, are 1-5 vs Cougars in WCC play. BYU won five in row, nine of last ten games, with last four wins by 8+ points. USF is 4-3 in this tourney last four years, with all three losses by 5 or less points. Over last decade, BYU is 3-4 in its 2nd conference tournament game. Last seven USF games stayed under total.

MAC Tournament

Ball State lost 12 of last 13 games; they lost 71-51 (+14) at Ohio Jan 15, turning ball over 21 times (-9) in game that was only 27-21 at half. Ohio won five of last six series games, winning last two here by 4-20 points. Bobcats are 5-5 in last ten games after starting season 16-5; they've lost last three home games. Cardinals are 2-7 in first tourney games last nine years, with both wins in overtime. Last nine Ball games went over total.

Road team won both Kent-Miami games this year; Kent (+2) won 75-63 in first meeting, lost 73-61 (-6) in rematch six nights ago; Flashes won last two visits here, by 20-12 points. Kent lost four of last five games, six of last eight on road- they're 10-1 in first tourney game last 11 years, Miami is 2-3 in its last five, 3-4 in its last seven home games; Eight of last eleven Miami games stayed under the total.

Eastern Michigan beat Central Michigan twice this year, 72-59 (+3.5) at home, 64-42 (+10.5) here Feb 26, ending 1-6 series skid. Chippewas are 1-4 in this tourney last four years, losing last two games by total of five points. Eastern won two games in tourney LY after being 3-10 prior to that; Eagles won last six home games, with five wins by 12+ points. 8 of last 11 Central Michigan games went over the total.

Northern Illinois is 7-5 in last dozen games, but 10-0-2 vs spread; they are 2-0 as MAC favorites this year. Huskies (+9) won ugly 45-36 game at Bowling Green Jan 12; Falcons scored only 3 points in last 12:05 of loss, which ended 7-game series win streak. BG won its last three visits here. Over is 9-4 in last 13 Bowling Green games. These two teams are the MAC's two worst teams protecting ball (turnovers 24+% of time).

MAAC Tournament

Iona played four starters 36+ minutes in tense win 75-72 over Canisius; Gaels (-2.5) beat Manhattan 85-73 in first meeting this year, then lost at Draddy Gym 80-77 (+4) in OT 10 days ago, Iona's only loss in its last 15 games. Jaspers won four in row, 10 of last 11 games- they lost 60-57 to Manhattan in this game LY. Four of last five Jasper games went under total. Last time MAAC's #1 seed won conference tourney was 2010.

Summit Tournament

Denver (even) beat North Dakota State 67-63 at home, then lost 78-68 in road rematch (+10.5) nine days ago; Pioneers played seven guys last night- Olson played all 40, three other starters 30+. Bison won its last seven games, covering three of last four. Denver is 1-3 in its conference tourney games last three years, played in two other leagues. Eight of last nine ND State games stayed under the total.

South Dakota State won nine of last ten games overall, seven games in a row on this court, with lot of Jackrabbit fans in house; they lost 82-75 (+1.5) at Fort Wayne, then won rematch 79-51 (-4.5) Feb 6, Mastadons' worst loss of year. Jacks played one guy 30+ minutes in easy win; Fort Wayne played Saturday, had Sunday off. These teams are #2/#3 in pace in Summit League, so this game figures to be up-and-down.

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Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/10

StatFox Super Situations

MD-EAST SHORE at NORFOLK ST
Play On - Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (MD-EAST SHORE) revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a home loss 68-32 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 32.8 units ) 7-4 this year. ( 63.6% | 2.6 units )

KENT ST at MIAMI OHIO
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (KENT ST) off a road loss, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team 225-93 since 1997. ( 70.8% | 75.6 units ) 13-12 this year. ( 52.0% | -2.0 units )

DENVER at N DAKOTA ST
Play Against - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (N DAKOTA ST) excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45-47.5%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making >=47% of their shots 41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units ) 3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/10

7:00 PM
KENT STATE vs. MIAMI (OHIO)
Kent State is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Kent State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami (Ohio)
Miami (Ohio) is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kent State
Miami (Ohio) is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

7:00 PM
BALL STATE vs. OHIO
Ball State is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Ohio
Ball State is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Ohio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio's last 6 games
Ohio is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games

7:30 PM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN
Central Michigan is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Eastern Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Michigan's last 5 games when playing on the road against Eastern Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 5 games when playing at home against Central Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 6 games

8:00 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Bowling Green is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Bowling Green is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Northern Illinois
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games when playing Bowling Green
Northern Illinois is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Bowling Green

9:00 PM
ST. MARY'S vs. GONZAGA
No trends available
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Mary's
Gonzaga is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games

11:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. BYU
No trends available
BYU is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
BYU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/10

AAC Betting Notes
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE

March 12-15 -- All games at FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN (home court of Memphis Tigers)

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: LOUISVILLE, CINCINNATI, SMU, MEMPHIS

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

Made up mostly of members from the defacto Big East, the AAC performed admirably outside the conference in lined games versus on-board squads (57-34 SU and 45-45-1 ATS). Inside conference play the big money was taken down by big favorites (18-10-1 ATS -11.5 or more points) while teams with losing records had a difficult time winning back-to-back conference games, going just 3-6 SUATS off a win.

LOUISVILLE stands head and shoulders above the rest of the crowd. The defending national champions won and covered all seven Big East tourney games the previous two campaigns and are 10-0 SU in conference tourney play as a #1 seed since 1993. That’s all you need to know. A wobbly 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS mark in games at Memphis looks scary, but double revenge from a pair of losses to the Tigers this season should serve as plenty of incentive.

CINCINNATI earned the #2 slot in this tourney thanks largely to a tough-as-nails defense (#9 Defensive Field Goal Percentage 39.1). As a result, the Bearcats have chewed up and spit out inferior opposition this season, going 16-0 SU versus sub .700 opponents – and that should find them in or around the title game the final weekend of the season. A glossy 15-4 SU and 13-5-1 ATS mark in conference tourneys versus 1-4 seeds should also serve them well.

Larry Brown’s SMU Mustangs were arguably the surprise of the league this season. Behind 5 returning starters from last year’s 15-win unit, the Ponies elevated their play in Year Two behind the nomadic Brown. A 12-5 ATS mark in conference play at press time, coupled with a 6-1 ATS ledger in revenge games this campaign figures to make them a tough out. Granted, a dismal 1-8 SU and 2-6-1 ATS mark in the last nine conference tourneys sours that notion, but owning the nation’s top-ranked Defensive Field Goal percentage defense (36.9) trumps past history. Ironically, the Mustangs will open this event in the same venue where they closed the season last Saturday.

MEMPHIS is likely salivating, serving as the host in this inaugural AAC tourney. That’s because they are 17-0 SU at home in conference tournament play since 2005. Remember, though, they were the #1 seed in 14 of those games and while home teams are a lofty 292-105 SU in conference tourney action since 1991, they are only 25-35 ATS as dogs.

THE SLEEPER: CONNECTICUT

Off a one-year suspension, and after elevating the school’s mandated subpar APR academic marks, the Huskies are eligible for postseason play. Head coach Kevin Ollie, a former UConn point guard, knows the importance of conference games. That’s confirmed by his 21-12-1 ATS mark at press time as the head Husky, including 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS versus sub .600 foes and 12-2-1 ATS in conference play with 3 or more days of rest. A jaw-dropping 8-0 ATS record in the last eight conference tourney games, and a 7-1 ATS dog log in the same versus foes off a win, makes fading this team virtually impossible. With 5 returning starters back from last year’s 20-win squad, they become dangerous dogs from this point forward.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON LOUISVILLE VS. MEMPHIS

As tough as Rick Pitino has been in the NCAA tourney, he’s even harder to handle in conference tournament play, going 30-8 SU and 30-15-1 ATS overall since 1991, including 15-1 SU and 10-5-1 ATS as a #1 seed, and 6-0 SUATS the last six games when playing with same-season revenge. The Tigers took the Cardinals out twice this season. Enough said.

EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES

CINCINNATI: 5-1 ATS dogs > 3 pts, 0-4 ATS off DD ATS win vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 1-5 ATS off DD SU win vs opp off DD SU and any ATS win, 1-4 ATS off SU loss vs opp w/revenge, 1-4 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 1-4 ATS favs off SU loss

CONNECTICUT: 8-0 ATS as #9 seed, 8-0 ATS L8, 5-0 ATS vs #1 seed, 7-1 ATS dogs vs opp off SU win, 0-7 ATS w/3+ days rest vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 0-4 ATS off 3+ SUATS losses, 1-4 ATS off DD SU loss, 2-6 ATS 1st game

HOUSTON: 0-4 ATS L4 games, 1-6 ATS dogs w/3+ days rest, 1-4 ATS off SUATS loss vs opp off SU win, 1-3 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 2-7 ATS as #9 seed or lower, 2-5 ATS off BB SU losses, 3-7 ATS dogs > 7 pts

LOUISVILLE: 9-1 ATS favs off BB SU wins, 8-1 ATS vs opp off BB SU wins, 7-1 SUATS L8, 5-1 ATS vs #4 seed or higher, 6-1 ATS w/revenge, 9-2 ATS off DD SU win

MEMPHIS: 18-0 SU as #1 seed (7-1 ATS L8), 8-1 SUATS L9, 5-0 SUATS vs #2 seed, 4-0 ATS vs opp off BB SU dog wins, 10-2 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 2-7 w/3+ rest off BB SU wins

RUTGERS: 5-1 ATS vs #11 seed or lower, 4-1 ATS off DD SU loss, 4-1 w/3+ rest w/ revenge, 0-3 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 1-4 ATS as DD dogs

SMU: 0-6 ATS vs opp off SUATS win, 1-4 ATS dogs 10 < pts, 1-8 SU & 2-6-1 ATS all-time in tourney

UCF: 0-4 ATS off BB SU wins, 0-3 ATS vs #4 seed or higher, 1-4 ATS off DD SU win, 1-4 ATS as dogs, 1-4 ATS vs opp off SU win

USF: 0-3 ATS vs #8 seed or higher, 1-4 ATS vs opp off SU win, 1-4 ATS as dogs, 1-4 ATS w/revenge

TEMPLE: 4-0 ATS favs vs opp off BB SU dog wins, 10-2-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 7-2 ATS favs < 4 pts, 0-4 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 2-6 ATS dogs off BB SU wins

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/10

C-USA Betting Notes
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

CONFERENCE USA

March 11-15 -- All games at the Don Haskins Center, El Paso, TX (home court of UTEP)

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: SOUTHERN MISS • LA TECH • MIDDLE TENNESSEE • UTEP

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

With Memphis out of the way, it’s time a new #1 seed makes a name in this tourney. The Tigers had captured the crown 7 of the last 8 years in the C-USA tourney before bolting for the new American Athletic Conference. A lot of which went hand-in-hand with the fact the top seed in this tourney has made it to the title game 9 of the last 10 years, while cutting down the nets 10 of the last 13 years. That being the case, the dilemma is that no less than four teams were tied atop the conference standings at 12-3 heading to press time. The good news is the top 4 seeds in this tourney receive double byes, with seeds 5-9 getting a single bye.

From an all-important RPI standpoint, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI sits atop the pack in the C-USA. The Golden Eagles were the runner-up in this tourney last year and won 27 games before losing in the quarterfinals of the NIT last season. Head coach Donnie Tyndall is 52-15 SU with USM at press time, including 46-5 versus .666 or less opponents, and is the team to beat.

LOUISIANA TECH was the preseason favorite to win the conference and did not disappoint after transferring in from the WAC. Like Southern Miss, the Bulldogs dominated sub .666 or less opponents this season (20-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at press time) and should arrive in a nasty mood after having been bounced in the first round of the WAC tourney as a 12.5-point, #1 seed last year.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE, another ‘new kid on the block’ in the conference this year, holds down the 3rd best RPI ranking in the loop. The Blue Raiders won the Sun Belt last season before eventually losing in the first round of the Big Dance. MTSU’s strength is on the glass where they outrebound foes a net +4.3 RPG this season after finishing +5.7 last year.

UTEP plays host to the tourney, owning the #72 RPI rating at press time, so they will need to make some noise in order to get an invite. A 152-38 SU record at the Don Haskins Center, including 10-3-1 ATS when getting points, should serve them well.

THE SLEEPER: TULSA

The Hurricane started slow (0-4 SU) but closed like their namesake with 7 straight wins (8-1 ATS) at press time. We’re now located in South Florida and if there is one thing we’ve learned since residing in this state, it’s that you don’t step in front of a hurricane at full force.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON SOUTHERN MISS IN GAME ONE

The Eagles have been golden in conference tourney lid-lifters (10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS), which ties directly into their aforementioned dominance against .666 or less opposition.

EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES

CHARLOTTE: 4-0 ATS as favs vs opp off BB SU/ATS wins, 1-9 ATS off SU loss, 1-5 ATS L6, 3-8 ATS w/revenge

EAST CAROLINA: 3-0 ATS off DD SU win, 1-6 ATS off SU loss, 1-6 ATS vs opp off SU win

FLORIDA ATLANTIC: 0-4 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 0-3 ATS off SU/ATS win, 1-5 ATS as favs, 1-3 ATS off DD ATS loss

LOUISIANA TECH: 4-0 ATS as dogs < 7 pts, 4-1 ATS off SU dog win, 0-2 ATS off DD ATS win, 1-5 ATS vs opp off DD SU win

MARSHALL: 2-0 ATS as dogs off SU loss, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 0-2 ATS vs opp off BB SU/ATS wins, 1-4 ATS favs < 7 pts

MIDDLE TENNESSEE: 4-1 ATS as dogs > 3 pts, 1-7-1 ATS L9, 1-6 ATS off BB SUATS wins, 1-4 ATS as favs vs opp off SU loss

NORTH TEXAS: 2-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 4-1 ATS off 3+ SUATS wins, 3-1 ATS as dogs 3 < pts, 1-4 ATS off DD ATS win

OLD DOMINION: 3-0 ATS as dogs of BB SU/ATS wins, 2-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 0-4 ATS vs opp off SU fav loss, 0-2 ATS w/same-season single revenge

RICE: 5-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 4-0-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 6-1-1 ATS dogs 5 > pts, 6-1-1 ATS w/3+ days rest

SOUTHERN MISS: 5-1 ATS favs off BB SU wins, 1-6 ATS off SU dog win, 1-6-1 dogs off BB SUATS wins, 2-6 ATS vs opp off BB SU/ATS wins

TEXAS SAN ANTONIO: 1st year in tourney

TULANE: 4-1 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss, 3-1 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 3-1 ATS vs #1 seed, 0-5 ATS L5, 1-4 ATS off BB SU/ATS wins

TULSA: 3-0 ATS w/same-season single revenge, 3-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 0-3 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 2-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU win

UAB: 5-1 ATS off DD ATS win, 4-0 ATS as dogs off DD SU win, 1-11 ATS L12 games, 1-9 ATS favs 6 < pts…

UTEP: 5-0-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 3-0 ATS as DD favs, 8-2 ATS favs vs opp off SU win. 1-3 ATS as dogs vs opp off SU win.

TECH NOTES: Teams off a DD SU win are 13-1-1 ATS vs opp off SU/ATS loss… teams off BB SU/ATS losses are 11-1 ATS w/same-season single revenge… favs w/revenge are 5-1-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win… dogs off BB SU losses are 10-3 ATS vs opp off SU loss… #2 seeds are 0-5-1 ATS w/revenge… #3 seeds are 1-7 ATS off BB SUATS wins… #4 seeds are 1-5 ATS as DD dogs… #7 seeds are 0-4 ATS L4 but 8-2-1 ATS off BB SU/ATS wins… #9 seeds are 8-2 ATS vs opp off SU/ATS win.